evan37's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/5186161/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1359471/comments?source=feed#comment-17954961 17954961 Mon, 22 Apr 2013 19:12:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1358971/comments?source=feed#comment-17954701 17954701 Mon, 22 Apr 2013 19:04:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1336991/comments?source=feed#comment-17569501 17569501 Good comment. I agree with you. I am basically on a fixed salary and if there's deflation my purchase power goes up. With inflation/CB shenanigans my purchase power goes down. To hedge against inflation I keep about 10% in metals. These PM dips have provided an excellent buying opportunity for my metal holdings to catch up to my equity gains over the past few years. I'm positioned so that if the economy roars I'll do ok, if the economy stagnates I'll still do ok. I'm expecting stagflation and am long precious metals short the US economy by the way. ]]> Fri, 12 Apr 2013 21:47:40 -0400 Good comment. I agree with you. I am basically on a fixed salary and if there's deflation my purchase power goes up. With inflation/CB shenanigans my purchase power goes down. To hedge against inflation I keep about 10% in metals. These PM dips have provided an excellent buying opportunity for my metal holdings to catch up to my equity gains over the past few years. I'm positioned so that if the economy roars I'll do ok, if the economy stagnates I'll still do ok. I'm expecting stagflation and am long precious metals short the US economy by the way. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1338841/comments?source=feed#comment-17568641 17568641 Fri, 12 Apr 2013 21:09:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1334671/comments?source=feed#comment-17520001 17520001 Thu, 11 Apr 2013 20:27:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1334851/comments?source=feed#comment-17495311 17495311 Thu, 11 Apr 2013 11:32:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1329601/comments?source=feed#comment-17397321 17397321 Tue, 09 Apr 2013 09:55:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1321721/comments?source=feed#comment-17233681 17233681 Thu, 04 Apr 2013 17:19:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1303691/comments?source=feed#comment-16883241 16883241 Wed, 27 Mar 2013 11:49:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1303971/comments?source=feed#comment-16882891 16882891 Wed, 27 Mar 2013 11:45:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1241671/comments?source=feed#comment-15753041 15753041 Sun, 03 Mar 2013 02:45:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1241691/comments?source=feed#comment-15752751 15752751 Sun, 03 Mar 2013 02:15:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1241691/comments?source=feed#comment-15724111 15724111 The FED got us into this mess in the first place with all of these artificially low interest rates through the 1990s, now they can't raise interest rates without crashing the whole economy. Central banks were supposed to suppress volatility but, since 1917 we've had more volatility than before. The central planners can't get the money supply right. I say, gold standard, competitive currencies, no central bank, Austrian all the way!
I'm young, I'm not a baby boomer. I don't care about my portfolio, and my nominal retirement gains, I want my country to exist for my daughter to have the potential to succeed. Scrap Medicare turn it into a voucher program, make social security optional, cut defense by 50% (close 450 of our 900 military bases), congressional term limits, flat tax, and then you would see growth my friend! In the long run ZIRP isn't gonna help us much, just prolong the agony (look at Japan).
]]> Sat, 02 Mar 2013 06:52:21 -0500 The FED got us into this mess in the first place with all of these artificially low interest rates through the 1990s, now they can't raise interest rates without crashing the whole economy. Central banks were supposed to suppress volatility but, since 1917 we've had more volatility than before. The central planners can't get the money supply right. I say, gold standard, competitive currencies, no central bank, Austrian all the way!
I'm young, I'm not a baby boomer. I don't care about my portfolio, and my nominal retirement gains, I want my country to exist for my daughter to have the potential to succeed. Scrap Medicare turn it into a voucher program, make social security optional, cut defense by 50% (close 450 of our 900 military bases), congressional term limits, flat tax, and then you would see growth my friend! In the long run ZIRP isn't gonna help us much, just prolong the agony (look at Japan).
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1241691/comments?source=feed#comment-15723381 15723381 Sat, 02 Mar 2013 05:30:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1232731/comments?source=feed#comment-15722821 15722821 Sat, 02 Mar 2013 04:27:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1232731/comments?source=feed#comment-15722741 15722741 Sat, 02 Mar 2013 04:16:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1239211/comments?source=feed#comment-15719011 15719011 Fri, 01 Mar 2013 23:59:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1239211/comments?source=feed#comment-15718401 15718401 I'm not so sure about #4, why would the issuer of the world's reserve currency necessarily have to run a deficit? The US is enabled to run deficits due to our treasuries being in demand, but that doesn't mean we have to run deficits.
What do you think about Japan. Soon the INTEREST on their debt will be greater than their revenue, especially if yields go up. The BOJ is stuck, they can't stop buying up debt and printing or else the yields will raise and cause the Japanese Treasury to go insolvent. This is where the US is headed.
In Chartalism, people seem willing to still purchase govt backed debt even with guaranteed losses, it's unbelievable to me. It's the liquidity preference. The question is, at the margin, when does this liquidity preference end? ]]> Fri, 01 Mar 2013 23:12:44 -0500 I'm not so sure about #4, why would the issuer of the world's reserve currency necessarily have to run a deficit? The US is enabled to run deficits due to our treasuries being in demand, but that doesn't mean we have to run deficits.
What do you think about Japan. Soon the INTEREST on their debt will be greater than their revenue, especially if yields go up. The BOJ is stuck, they can't stop buying up debt and printing or else the yields will raise and cause the Japanese Treasury to go insolvent. This is where the US is headed.
In Chartalism, people seem willing to still purchase govt backed debt even with guaranteed losses, it's unbelievable to me. It's the liquidity preference. The question is, at the margin, when does this liquidity preference end? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1241691/comments?source=feed#comment-15718211 15718211 Unintended consequences of the FED's actions are becoming more apparent and more severe. The low rates are hurting savers, money markets, and pension plans. Investors are being pushed into taking higher risks seeking a ROI wherever they can find one. Creative destruction and reallocation of wealth is being suppressed by maintaining the status quo. The Phillips curve only holds true when the economic fundamentals of price discovery are allowed to work. Our economy will start growing again when business regulations, tax laws, unemployment, disability, and entitlement reform takes place in a smart way. Unfortunately, given the retards that are running this country, we're in for decades of stagflation. Japan is our model, we will follow their lead. ]]> Fri, 01 Mar 2013 23:01:20 -0500 Unintended consequences of the FED's actions are becoming more apparent and more severe. The low rates are hurting savers, money markets, and pension plans. Investors are being pushed into taking higher risks seeking a ROI wherever they can find one. Creative destruction and reallocation of wealth is being suppressed by maintaining the status quo. The Phillips curve only holds true when the economic fundamentals of price discovery are allowed to work. Our economy will start growing again when business regulations, tax laws, unemployment, disability, and entitlement reform takes place in a smart way. Unfortunately, given the retards that are running this country, we're in for decades of stagflation. Japan is our model, we will follow their lead. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1241671/comments?source=feed#comment-15717471 15717471
It seems to me that investors don't want to miss out on this bull market in equities and are just rotating out of cash and bonds and into equities. Never mind that the bull market in equities has been engineered by the FED, where else are you going to put your money? I agree though, that investors have their finger on the trigger, ready to pull out of stocks at any time!]]> Fri, 01 Mar 2013 22:23:09 -0500
It seems to me that investors don't want to miss out on this bull market in equities and are just rotating out of cash and bonds and into equities. Never mind that the bull market in equities has been engineered by the FED, where else are you going to put your money? I agree though, that investors have their finger on the trigger, ready to pull out of stocks at any time!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1232671/comments?source=feed#comment-15715871 15715871 I can see that you are very passionate about this topic, and that is good. A solution to the Medicare problem is probably the single best thing we could do to increase our federal govt's efficiency and solvency. Healthcare financing in the US, as it is now, is a disaster. It is an unholy combination of government control and free markets. The reason healthcare is so expensive in the US is from the following:
1. 3rd party payers divorce the consumer from direct exposure to the cost of care (no price discovery mechanism).
2. Employer-based insurance benefits are tax-decuctible, causing an arms race in private insurance.
3. Litigation, some studies put the cost of litigation as high as 33 cents for every dollar (defensive medicine, over-consultation, over-testing).
4. CMS reimburses for quantity, reimburses procedures more than primary and preventative care.
The dentists are all starting to fall into the same trap we did in the 1970s, becoming dependent on 3rd party payers. Just wait, dental care (just like student loans) will get bid up and up and up once you remove price discovery from the equation. This is classic, moral hazard, the central planners would do much better allowing the free market to work. I'm happy to use govt money for healthcare for the poor but it needs to be done in a much smarter way. CMS has done a terrible job, and Obamacare will carry the torch in 2014 of doing a horrible job of making economic decisions from 30,000 feet. It just doesn't work.]]> Fri, 01 Mar 2013 20:59:12 -0500 I can see that you are very passionate about this topic, and that is good. A solution to the Medicare problem is probably the single best thing we could do to increase our federal govt's efficiency and solvency. Healthcare financing in the US, as it is now, is a disaster. It is an unholy combination of government control and free markets. The reason healthcare is so expensive in the US is from the following:
1. 3rd party payers divorce the consumer from direct exposure to the cost of care (no price discovery mechanism).
2. Employer-based insurance benefits are tax-decuctible, causing an arms race in private insurance.
3. Litigation, some studies put the cost of litigation as high as 33 cents for every dollar (defensive medicine, over-consultation, over-testing).
4. CMS reimburses for quantity, reimburses procedures more than primary and preventative care.
The dentists are all starting to fall into the same trap we did in the 1970s, becoming dependent on 3rd party payers. Just wait, dental care (just like student loans) will get bid up and up and up once you remove price discovery from the equation. This is classic, moral hazard, the central planners would do much better allowing the free market to work. I'm happy to use govt money for healthcare for the poor but it needs to be done in a much smarter way. CMS has done a terrible job, and Obamacare will carry the torch in 2014 of doing a horrible job of making economic decisions from 30,000 feet. It just doesn't work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1232671/comments?source=feed#comment-15669311 15669311 You are exactly right about the Medicare act of 1965 driving up costs, I wrote a little instablog on that very topic.
http://seekingalpha.co...]]> Fri, 01 Mar 2013 00:04:41 -0500 You are exactly right about the Medicare act of 1965 driving up costs, I wrote a little instablog on that very topic.
http://seekingalpha.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1232671/comments?source=feed#comment-15668831 15668831 Thu, 28 Feb 2013 23:29:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1232671/comments?source=feed#comment-15668791 15668791 Under Obamacare the insurance exchanges are highly regulated and have to meet standards of reimbursement as specified by CMS, you won't be able to find a low premium product like that, the Dems will have regulated them into extinction. Also, the insurance companies (exchanges) will all be offering more or less the same product due to the fact they can't discriminate based on health status/pre-existing conditions ect. The exchanges will fire all their actuaries. Why would an insurance company that Can't lawfully assess risk need actuaries. The exchanges are little government redistribution vehicles. Obamacare, is a step in the wrong direction, a horrible idea!]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2013 23:26:15 -0500 Under Obamacare the insurance exchanges are highly regulated and have to meet standards of reimbursement as specified by CMS, you won't be able to find a low premium product like that, the Dems will have regulated them into extinction. Also, the insurance companies (exchanges) will all be offering more or less the same product due to the fact they can't discriminate based on health status/pre-existing conditions ect. The exchanges will fire all their actuaries. Why would an insurance company that Can't lawfully assess risk need actuaries. The exchanges are little government redistribution vehicles. Obamacare, is a step in the wrong direction, a horrible idea!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1233351/comments?source=feed#comment-15668441 15668441 Thu, 28 Feb 2013 23:10:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1229151/comments?source=feed#comment-15582231 15582231 Wed, 27 Feb 2013 12:06:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1223441/comments?source=feed#comment-15524581 15524581 http://seekingalpha.co...
Where he argues that the deposit-less shadow bank credit contraction void is being filled by FED-backed deposits into the traditional banking system, which has a higher potential for inflation. ]]> Tue, 26 Feb 2013 10:45:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.co...
Where he argues that the deposit-less shadow bank credit contraction void is being filled by FED-backed deposits into the traditional banking system, which has a higher potential for inflation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219691/comments?source=feed#comment-15445951 15445951 Sun, 24 Feb 2013 15:02:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1205951/comments?source=feed#comment-15445811 15445811 My concern is that the US economy doesn't become competitive enough to survive in a global free trade environment, that we can't eventually run a trade surplus. In other words, the politicians won't let the cost of wages and capital to fall to equilibrate with that of the rest of the world and will instead "come to the rescue" of big industry by implementing protectionist policies before there can be a rebalancing. With so much trade deficit sovereign debt almost has to rise (unless endogenous productivity starts to raise exponentially, which I don't see happening here with current demographic and political trends). ]]> Sun, 24 Feb 2013 14:57:22 -0500 My concern is that the US economy doesn't become competitive enough to survive in a global free trade environment, that we can't eventually run a trade surplus. In other words, the politicians won't let the cost of wages and capital to fall to equilibrate with that of the rest of the world and will instead "come to the rescue" of big industry by implementing protectionist policies before there can be a rebalancing. With so much trade deficit sovereign debt almost has to rise (unless endogenous productivity starts to raise exponentially, which I don't see happening here with current demographic and political trends). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1218341/comments?source=feed#comment-15393301 15393301 Under an Austrian paradigm, and with Metalism (as opposed to chartalism), commodity based money, you are exactly right. This is the way the world should work. Unfortunately, we live in Chartalist times and have since 1971. Money is no longer money in the sense that von Mises said it was, "the ultimate commodity of universal demand" (or something close to that). Money is now a token of credit issued by the govt and required to pay taxes, of value only as far as the people believe in it. Money is now used to spur production as opposed to production putting deflationary forces on the money supply and causing "natural" credit expansion in the private banking system.
With the current paradigm (Chartalism) money and wealth are divorced, accrued interest can be paid off (at least in nominal terms). History tells us how this will end, and I agree with you, it won't be pretty. ]]> Fri, 22 Feb 2013 18:11:55 -0500 Under an Austrian paradigm, and with Metalism (as opposed to chartalism), commodity based money, you are exactly right. This is the way the world should work. Unfortunately, we live in Chartalist times and have since 1971. Money is no longer money in the sense that von Mises said it was, "the ultimate commodity of universal demand" (or something close to that). Money is now a token of credit issued by the govt and required to pay taxes, of value only as far as the people believe in it. Money is now used to spur production as opposed to production putting deflationary forces on the money supply and causing "natural" credit expansion in the private banking system.
With the current paradigm (Chartalism) money and wealth are divorced, accrued interest can be paid off (at least in nominal terms). History tells us how this will end, and I agree with you, it won't be pretty. ]]>