Seeking Alpha

evan37

evan37
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View evan37's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • At The Fed, Will Pride Precede A Fall (In Treasury Bonds)? [View article]
    I think shorting the treasuries might be a mistake. If we look at Japan, we see a central bank willing to purchase debt ad infinitum. In the US case we will see a similar phenomenon. The US Treasury will auction more and more debt to the Primary Dealers who will sell to the FED (via tacit agreement) who will shift their nominal profits back to the US Treasury (monetization anyone?). We will see less and less foreign and private participation in this vicious, circular, death dance. The outcome wont be crash. It will be perpetually flush bank reserves with nowhere to go, stagflation and malinvestment making US less competitive in the global marketplace. The Austrians are right, the government (FED) can't even get the supply of money right; the central bank is a disaster!
    Nov 9, 2012. 10:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even With A Fiscal Cliff Deal, Stocks And The U.S. Economy Will Unravel In 2013 [View article]
    The US economy will most likely NOT unravel in an abrupt fashion.
    The US will follow Japan's excellent example of Modern Monetary Theory and shrivel up and die slowly. As we have seen in Japan, our central bank will increasingly be forced to purchase treasury securities to finance our debt that foreign and domestic savers will be increasingly unwilling to purchase. Soon the Fed will be the sole purchaser of US treasuries (going through their proxies the Primary Dealers of course). The Fed will be forced to buy more and more to keep yields low. When rates do rise, and they are the only buyer, they will just transfer their nominal profits back to the US treasury which will then, in a circular fashion, auction more debt to the Primary Dealers to be bought by the FED, repeat, repeat, repeat. Until, one day...voila! the debt has been monetized! How easy!
    Unfortunately, as we have seen in Japan, this kind of easing has consequences. Namely, malinvestment; creating a very uncompetitive country in the global marketplace. Inflation, also could be a problem if they don't balance their actions just perfectly with the money multiplier. I predict it will be a slow painful stagnation, not a collapse.
    Nov 9, 2012. 10:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At The Fed, Will Pride Precede A Fall (In Treasury Bonds)? [View article]
    they will never unwind, look at Japan
    Nov 8, 2012. 08:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Short U.S. Bonds Is Now [View article]
    Katchum,
    Nice charts. Please explain to me for my lack of knowledge, why does the "commercial" and "non-commercial" net exposure positions run in opposite directions. Does the Fed represent the lion's share of "non-commercial" positions. Sorry to ask a dumb question, thanks.
    Nov 8, 2012. 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Wake-Up Call The Morning After [View article]
    Luckycharlie,
    I am a dual board certified physician and practice in the ER, medical floors, and the critical care units. I have practiced medicine in at least 12 different hospitals, both for and not for profit. I started a small hospitalist program in Missouri and was elected the president of the medical staff and med executive committee. I am a part of the leadership of the largest hospitalist program in the state of South Carolina. When not practicing, I help design medical service lines to comply with CMS "quality measures" so the hospital doesn't go bankrupt at the whim of our federal overlords. So, my point is, I probably understand how medical insurance and CMS policy works better than you my friend.
    You are a fool to trust the FDA with your food, the TSA with your safety, FEMA for disaster relief, and especially CMS for keeping you safe in the medical system. Medicine is still good in the US, not due to regulators, but due to the work of giants like William Osler, Chales Mayo, Ben Spock who were allowed to invest in their novel ideas. They were not held back by the endless red tape and official regulatory nonsense that we have to put up with now.
    Obamacare is a disaster. He is taking a horrible system and making it worse. He is basically doubling down on the current unsustainable federally subsidized programs Medicare and Medicaid. His program requires all insurance companies in the exchange to comply with certain "minimum requirements." Those minimum requirements are spelled out it the over 2.8 million word law that no one really understands fully yet (including those who pieced the hair-brained legislation together).
    The bottom line is, Frederick Hayek was right, the planners suffer from the "Pretense of Knowledge" and don't generate more social wealth or welfare with their nefarious policies.
    Nov 8, 2012. 07:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Wake-Up Call The Morning After [View article]
    The principle on investment income was ALREADY taxed! Who in their right mind would risk their ALREAY TAXED, AFTER tax income to make an investment if that income is again taxed at a higher rate? No one! Investors will go elsewhere and risk their money, and the US economy's GDP growth, in real terms, will continue to be negative.
    Nov 8, 2012. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Week Ahead: Greece Will Make Or Break Market [View article]
    Stanley,
    Thanks for the response...

    "At the end of the day, I believe Japan will
    order domestic holders to 'defer their claims on interest and principal until future notice for the good of the Empire'.

    That seems likely, but the question is when? What is the insolvency point of central banks? Will it be a debt to GDP trigger (already >230%). Will it be when the interest on their debt exceeds the total govt's revenues? Will it be when the JCB is the only purchaser of treasuries?
    Nov 8, 2012. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Way For Debt Mutualization In Europe [View instapost]
    A more closely united Europe should be great for their productivity (sarcasm). Now if you choose to run a deficit the Trokia will just use their magic wand to erase it (more sarcasm). I can't wait to jump right in and invest in some low risk European sovereign bonds (most sarcasm)!
    Nov 7, 2012. 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Wake-Up Call The Morning After [View article]
    The insurance companies are regulated cronies. Insurance exchanges that have to provide a minimum amount of coverage as stipulated by...wait for it...by CMS! What? CMS? I can't believe it, CMS is telling the private free market companies how to provider their "services"?
    Nov 7, 2012. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Week Ahead: Greece Will Make Or Break Market [View article]
    Thanks for the reply. The Japanese seem to be able to roll over their debt magically and ad infinitum. They are launching into QE 8 and the 10 yr bond is less than 0.8! How is it done? Patriotism? Is the JCB that subservient to the treasury, or is it that they just have no choice but to buy more and more govt debt to keep rates down? It appears the US is headed down the exact same road.
    Nov 7, 2012. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Wake-Up Call The Morning After [View article]
    Robert,
    You are exactly right. Socialized medicine sucks worse than the crappy system we have now.
    Nov 7, 2012. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Wake-Up Call The Morning After [View article]
    Luckycharlie,
    My apologies. I thought Obama was going to make it harder for me to start a business by increasing regulation and taxing me more, raising cap gains, and closing the subchapter S loophole. I thought he was going to try to force me to buy crappy govt regulated health insurance and increase my tax bracket. My bad. Obama is the free market's friend, horray we're saved!
    Nov 7, 2012. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Wake-Up Call The Morning After [View article]
    Neal,
    Put your money where your mouth is and give ALL your money to the Federal Govt. Don't make me give my hard earned money away so someone else can decide how to spend!

    I can't give to charity as much as I want if my taxes go up!!
    Nov 7, 2012. 11:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Wake-Up Call The Morning After [View article]
    Charles, We can't stop deficit spending. We are stuck! you're absolutely right. Look at Japan!!! IF they tried to pay their debt down 50% of their annual revenue would go to financing the INTEREST on their debt.
    Nov 7, 2012. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sober Wake-Up Call The Morning After [View article]
    It's great until the government runs out of money!
    Nov 7, 2012. 11:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
279 Comments
644 Likes