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evan37

evan37
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  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    Granted. If you're an active trader, gold may not be the best investment for you. If you're a sideliner like me and just want to safely preserve purchase power, gold is enticing.
    Jan 17, 2013. 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    Macro,
    I will dumb this down for you.
    I said the following,"SPY value and gold have performed similarly (both just about doubled in purchase power) over the past 100 years." This is true.

    You're describing a compounding phenomenon. Of course if you continuously reinvested your dividends back into either S&P or gold the numbers would be much higher. I'm talking about parity. If you bought 1 dollar of gold vs 1 dollar broadly across the S&P they would have performed similarly. This is what $/oz/CPI attempts to measure. When you divide $ by CPI you are in essence just measuring gold's purchase power; this is if you accept the govt's measure of CPI in the first place which is suspect.
    Jan 17, 2013. 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    Here is another good one for you.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 17, 2013. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    You have to look at inflation adjusted numbers for both dollars and gold concomitantly.
    http://bit.ly/Ptos8Q
    Jan 17, 2013. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    SPY value and gold have performed similarly (both just about doubled in purchase power) over the past 100 years. Gold, IMO, is a safer bet for my kid's piggybank.
    Jan 17, 2013. 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    http://on.wsj.com/WcfLAs
    Jan 17, 2013. 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    as measured in dollars or gold?
    Jan 17, 2013. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive: Financial Repression Reconsidered [View article]
    This article makes no sense.
    Jan 17, 2013. 09:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    The dollar has lost 95% of its purchase power over the past 100 years, Gold has doubled ($/oz)/CPI. This is before massive QE. What's so hard to understand?
    Jan 17, 2013. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Fed Create Inflation? [View article]
    Bring back the Greenback? Yikes, that's scary! A surefire way to destroy our currency! Japan may be the first big to experiment with bypassing CB autonomy, we'll see how that works out for them.

    Have you considered the paper by Singh and Stella, I believe April 2012, describing shadow banking as the primary culprits for deflationary tendencies? Their conclusion: When $2T of money in the shadow banking system evaporates, the Fed can print a lot of money and still only achieve tepid inflation.
    Jan 17, 2013. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Update - Still Benign [View article]
    My concern is simply malinvestment. The Fed is doing what they have to do to prevent a deflationary spiral. Isn't this what Japan has been doing for 2 decades. And doesn't all of that QE keep the status quo alive, suppress creative destruction, misallocate investment, and rob the poor savers for the sake of the rich debtors (lower real purchase power for wage earners with artificially propped equities for shareholders, no returns on savings?). The business cycle has always gone up and down, wouldn't it be better to allow some controlled GDP contraction and deflation, carry the hedgies out on a stretcher and start over?
    Jan 17, 2013. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The U.S. Have A Public Spending Problem? [View article]
    Muoio,
    There is a good place for voluntarily entering into insurance pools to protect against unexpected catastrophic illness, not for purchasing elective, preventative, and routine medical care. 3rd party payers have been the biggest drivers of the skyrocketing cost of medical care. Same pattern as college tuition since heavy govt subsidy and Stafford loans have predominated.
    There is DEFINITELY a place for free market principles in medicine. The general public is not too stupid to shop for quality medical care, as CMS and the AMA would have you believe. They can certainly drive R&D in the cellphone market which is very complex. Check out the surgery center of OK, where my colleagues are undercutting the CMS monopoly and providing much better outcomes, patient satisfaction, etc. http://bit.ly/10hibDm
    The bulk of modern economists can't agree on what color the sky is. The Austrians consistent framework is the best comprehensive method for understanding production.
    Collectivism and social planning are killing the economic engine of this country, the free and liberated individual.
    Jan 17, 2013. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The U.S. Have A Public Spending Problem? [View article]
    Von Mises wouldn't approve of outlawing health insurance.
    The US healthcare system suffers from several big problems of which the following are the most important:
    1. 3rd party payers dominate reimbursement, this eliminates price discovery by consumers.
    2. CMS controls ICD, RVU, and DRG rates, they have a government-controlled and enforced monopoly. Private Insurers adjust their rates in line with CMS.
    3. Volume of care is incentivized by CMS
    4. Employer based health insurance is tax deductible, giving incentives to bid up cost of medicine at expense of wages
    5. Litigation. Docs get WAY too many consults and order WAY too many tests, and prescribe WAY too many drugs for fear of litigation. 60% of US MDs will find themselves (ourselves) on the witness stand.
    Muoio is right that the system is broken. He makes a couple of good points (malpractice, disease mgmt), but "paying doctors for successful outcomes" makes me cringe! This is code for more inefficient and asinine quality measures rolled out by CMS to legitimize Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement cuts.
    Understand the problem first, then advocate a corrective policy.
    Jan 16, 2013. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Update - Still Benign [View article]
    We should be seeing deflation given the credit contraction and negative money multiplier in the shadow banking system (Singh and Stella 2012). But instead we have core CPI of + 2% yoy due largely to FED policy. It appears the FED is achieving their goal of modest inflation in these "deflationary" times; but at what cost?
    Jan 16, 2013. 06:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Repoed, Part 2: A Deeper Look At Banks' Source Of Dry Powder [View article]
    And we are surprised by the Primary Dealer's appetites for US securities! It sounds like low yields are here to stay, right up until the very hour of their crash! This explains a lot. Thanks Colin.
    Jan 16, 2013. 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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