As a value driven investor, my investment approach is safe and cheap. I focus on investing in companies with extremely strong financial positions offering future growth at a discount. I take that same top-down approach and apply a synthesis of market implied growth rates in securities to isolate companies where existing assets of the business covers the market price. I closely monitor the underlying fundamentals of financial markets and the global economy. Where my research typically diverges from convention is - incorporating a volatility based perspective to the fundamental analysis, enhancing the risk control in investing.
Commodity broker 79-81 I discovered the Gospel In July 1979 (and re-discovered it again in April 2004 -after the G.6 release was dis-continued - actually created the RR time series in the late 1980's). Dr. Leland Pritchard "You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81 My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%. AAA Corporate yields rose to 15.49%. I should receive the Nobel Prize. The data should be classified as "top secret" by the U.S. Gov't. I.e., I let Aladdin out of the Lamp. See: 1938 Member Bank Reserve Requirements - Analysis of Committee Proposal (transactions velocity) http://bit.ly/M0JB7X The outstanding volume of the FRB_NY "trading desk's" 'eligible collateral' fell during the Great Depression. Whereas 'eligible collateral' was multiplied thru colossal Federal deficit financing (where the Gov’t spends much more than it expects to receive), during the Great Recession (but Bernanke still chose to "push on a string"). As Greenspan pontificated in “The Map & the Territory”: “The laws of physics…once identified, rarely have to be revised”: Rates-of-change (roc’s) in monetary flows (our means-of-payment money times its transactions rate-of-turnover), equal roc’s in all transactions in Irving Fisher’s “equation of exchange”: (MVt = PT). Roc’s in nominal-gDp are a proxy for all economic transactions. The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e. the proxies for (1) real-growth, & for (2) inflation indices have been mathematical constants for the last 100 years. However, the FED's target (interest rates), is indirect, varies widely over time, & in magnitude. President Wilson signed “The Federal Reserve Act” into law on December 23, 1913. The Act, "Provided for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes". "It was anticipated that credit extended by the Federal Reserve Banks to commercial banks would rise and fall with seasonal and longer term variations in business activity" "Seasonality" (principally the holidays), is the result of the FOMC’s seasonal mal-adjustments (& has its roots in the fallacious "Real Bills Doctrine”). The FOMC, through its "open market power", has the capability of either adding or subtracting to the volume of money in circulation. But the non-bank public determines its mix (the volume of currency vs. bank deposits). This policy is reflected by changes in the Depository Financial Institution’s (DFI), required reserve balances. RRs are based on transaction type accounts 30 days prior. Reserve balances are driven by consumer's & business' payment & settlements. Thus RRs provide the seasonal factor map (economic time series’ cyclical trend). This is inviolate & sacrosanct. Some calls: (1) flow5 (2/26/07; 14:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152672) Suckers Rally If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm (2) Reply #187 on Jul 21, 2011, 8:31pm » the stock market should be topping & in the process of a downtrend (3) flow5 Comments (3049) As it now stands, the market falls until Oct. Then expect a very strong rally. Everybody should double up in Nov. & Dec. (i.e., futures, options, margin, etc.) 5 Aug 2011, 09:04 (4) Written on Mar 30 11:31 am prior to the MAY 6th FLASH CRASH: "Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not "long & variable". The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length (mathematical constants). However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED's target??), varies widely." Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus: 2010 jan..... 0.54.... 0.25 top feb..... 0.50.... 0.10 mar.... 0.54.... 0.08 apr..... 0.46.... 0.09 top may.... 0.41.... 0.01 stocks fall Been saying this for the last 6 months. Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (9) to (1) from Apr to May. Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-8). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically?)" (5) flow5 Message #10 - 05/03/10 07:30 PM The markets usually turn (pivot) on May 5th (+ or - 1 day). (6) POSTED: Dec 13 2007 06:55 PM | The Commerce Department said retail sales in Oct 2007 increased by 1.2% over Oct 2006, & up a huge 6.3% from Nov 2006. 10/1/2007,,,,,,,-0.47,,,,,,, -0.22 * temporary bottom 11/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.14,,,,,,, -0.18 12/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.44,,,,,,,-0.23 1/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.59,,,,,,, 0.06 2/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.45,,,,,,, 0.10 3/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.06,,,,,,, 0.04 4/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.04,,,,,,, 0.02 5/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.09,,,,,,, 0.04 6/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.20,,,,,,, 0.05 7/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.32,,,,,,, 0.10 8/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.15,,,,,,, 0.05 9/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.00,,,,,,, 0.13 10/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.20,,,,,,, 0.10 * possible recession 11/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.10,,,,,,, 0.00 * possible recession 12/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.10,,,,,,, -0.06 * possible recession Trajectory as predicted: (7) 12-16-12, 01:50 PM #1 flow5 "We’re close to seeing the real power of OMOs. R-gDp is likely to accelerate earlier & faster than anyone now expects. The roc in M*Vt before any new stimulus is already above average. With low inflation (given some deficit resolution), Jan-Apr could be a zinger" (8) June's reversal will end the bull market that began in the early 80's. And it will not be because Operation Twist ends (although its end will force yields higher). 20 May 2012, 03:04 PMReply (9) This propelled nominal gNp to 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%. My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%.
Principal En-lightener - Purveyor of Darkness.
And Now - The Gift...
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There are idiots, look around - Larry Summers ;
To avoid the pernicious global plague of stupidity, drink the Kool-Aid and become one of the innoculati. The Kool-Aid is available at [VIRUS REMOVED BY ECHELON UNDER ORDER OF PATRIOT ACT II ... transmission terminated]
Assaf Nathan is a co-manager in Eden-Alpha fund, a hedge fund based in Israel and operates in various world markets. Assaf strives to find cheap companies with excellent managements, but also analyzes workouts and companies that are in financial distress.
Andrew Walker, CFA, is a portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital LLC with a focus on small cap special situations investments. Mr. Walker also contributes to Sifting the World, a value investing forum.
John Huber is the portfolio manager of Saber Capital Management, LLC, an investment firm that manages separate accounts for clients. Saber employs a value investing strategy with a primary goal of patiently compounding capital for the long-term.
John also writes about investing at the blog www.basehitinvesting.com, and can be reached at email@example.com.
The Sova Group is a private investment fund managed by Matt Brice. As principal of The Sova Group, Matt Brice has been managing investments since 2009. Prior to founding The Sova Group, from 2007 until 2009 he worked as an associate attorney in the Mergers and Acquisitions group of Debevoise & Plimpton LLP, an international law firm based in New York City. Mr. Brice holds a B.A. in Philosophy from Brigham Young University and received his law degree from Columbia Law School.
I am the President and Portfolio Manager at Motiwala Capital LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor in the state of Texas. I employ a value oriented investment philosophy. I look for quality companies that have strong balance sheets, produce stable free cashflow and generate above average returns on capital. We purchase at attractive discounts to their intrinsic value.
I started managing separate accounts in 2011. Currently managed $5.4million in assets. Please find presentations, interviews and client letters at www.motiwalacapital.com
Full-time investor. Formerly buy-side credit analyst (2yrs) covering Japanese + Asian companies. Before that, I was a cross asset derivatives salesperson at a large bulge-bracket firm, based in Tokyo (4yrs). I use Seeking Alpha to clarify and synthesize my investment thought process and to elicit feedback on my theses; additionally I like to connect with other investors and swap ideas.
You can read my finance-related blog at rapercapital.com (less organized than Seeking Alpha writeups, more my random musings on various finance-related topics).
Going forward I will try to tweet my investment-related thoughts/updates to articles/etc. You can follow me on Twitter, my handle is @puppyeh1
Always looking for new ideas across the board. Happy to exchange ideas/share thoughts/swap notes, feel free to private message me. I currently live in Singapore.
Sophocles, a Fulbright scholar and Chartered Financial Analyst, has over 15 years experience in the global financial markets. He manages institutional money and his own based on his personal investment strategy (known as FatAlpha). He spent over 11 years at an award-winning London-based emerging markets hedge fund while was previously employed in the brokerage and investment banking industry. A strong believer in value investing, Sophocles is passionate about the markets and his pursuit of investment alpha. His strategy consists of combining quantitative models with his own qualitative analysis. Sophocles graduated from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with a double major in Economics and Finance.
Ian Bezek worked for 3 years as an analyst at a New York-based hedge fund. He's currently living in Mexico, pursuing some entrepreneurial opportunities.
Feel free to contact him regarding investments, writing, or speaking opportunities.
Buy-Side Analyst. Value oriented. Small/Mid cap. CFA.
We invest long and short based on four qualities:
1) Strong Management
2) Free Cash Flow
3) Durable Moat
4) Reasonable Valuation
I work on the buy-side at a long/short fund. In my former life I was a senior, sell-side analyst at a large regional bank/brokerage firm covering a list of consumer discretionary companies. As a junior analyst on the sell-side I assisted in the coverage of automotive suppliers and OEMs.
I have spent over thirty years in the financial services industry and I am the author of Dead Companies Walking: How a Hedge Fund Manager Finds Opportunity in Unexpected Places, an Amazon Best Book of the Month. Since 1991, I have managed the hedge fund Crown Capital in Marin County, California.
Elephant Analytics has an Bachelor of Business Administration degree with a concentration in marketing and finance, and 13 years of experience as an analyst. Elephant Analytics originally focused on marketing and sales analysis due to geographical and lifestyle considerations, but rekindled his interest in finance and investing several years ago and became a contributor to Seeking Alpha in 2013. He has a particular interest in attempting to understand distressed companies and distressed industries.
Elephant Analytics has unique skills in the areas of numerical analysis and applied mathematics. Elephant Analytics achieved a top 50 score on the Bloomberg Aptitude Test (out of nearly 200,000 test takers) which measures financial aptitude. Elephant Analytics also has achieved a score (153) in the 99.98th percentile on the WAIS-III IQ test and has also been involved in multiple teams that have won awards during business and strategy competitions involving numerical analysis. In one such competition, he captained his team to become North American champions, ahead of MBA and undergraduate teams from universities such as Harvard, Yale and Northwestern.
Legal Disclaimer: Elephant Analytics' reports, premium research service and other writings are personal opinions only and should not be considered as investment advice. Only registered investment advisors can provide personalized investment advice. While Elephant Analytics attempts to provide reports that include accurate facts, investors should do their own diligence and fact checking prior to making their own decisions.
I have been a trader on the floor of the CME since 1996. My scope would be considered Global Macro. I trade markets all over the world but have been focusing my attention recently on the Japanese debt market. It is my opinion that there is a significant chance the Japanese will have a debt crisis and very possibly lose control of the yen in the coming years. I am registered as a CTA and maintain a fund that seeks to profit from what I think is the coming pressure on the Japanese government bond market.
Alan Hartley, CFA is the CIO of Black Cypress Capital Management and Investment Committee Chair of the University of North Florida Foundation Endowment. He has earned the right to display the CFA designation.
Alan Brochstein, CFA, was the first investment professional to devote himself to sharing his observations about the cannabis industry from an investor's perspective publicly. He runs 420 Investor, a subscription-based due diligence platform for investors interested in the publicly-traded cannabis stocks and is also the founder of New Cannabis Ventures, a content aggregation site focused on investors and entrepreneurs in the cannabis industry.
Alan has worked in the securities industry since 1986, primarily with the responsibility for managing investments in institutional environments until he founded AB Analytical Services in 2007 in order to provide independent research and consulting to registered investment advisors. In addition to advising several different hedge funds and investment managers, including Friedberg Investment Management, where he participated as a member of its investment management committee, Alan was also a senior analyst for the independent research firm Management CV. In 2008, he began providing a first-of-its-kind subscription-based service for individual investors, Invest By Model, which offered two different portfolios that investors could replicate in their own accounts for $20 per month. Alan also offered The Analytical Trader at Marketfy, where he used fundamental and technical analysis in a disciplined process to offer specific trade ideas geared towards swing traders.
Alan launched www.420Investor.com in late 2013 as the premier source of information for "Green Rush" investors seeking to capitalize on the proliferation of legalized medical and recreational cannabis. In March 2014, Alan, who is a member of the National Cannabis Industry Association, began to focus solely on the cannabis sector. He launched www.NewCannabisVentures.com in late 2015.
You can follow Alan on Facebook (www.facebook.com/420investor) or on Twitter (https://twitter.com/Invest420). Alan also moderates a large LinkedIn group focused on the cannabis industry, Cannabis Investors & Entrepreneurs (https://www.linkedin.com/groups/6523904)
Henry W. Schacht, CFA is the founder of Schacht Value Investors, an investment management firm. He earned his MBA at the University Of Chicago Graduate School of Business and a degree in finance from the University of Notre Dame.
I run a model fund at Ken Kam's Marketocracy, where they do capital management using the best member mutual fund track records with extensive tabulations of alpha, beta, R-squared, and many other fund management evaluations. Marketocracy Capital Management offers SMA (Separately Managed Accounts) through FOLIOfn Institutional ($100,000 minimum accounts) set up to track the top 15 or so long-term track records (many 12 years plus) of the 30000 or so active members that run models at their site. My fund is one of those top models available for SMAs. My SMA investment fund now has a first year performance with double digit alpha. You can see the fund's performance chart at marketocracy.com (the Turtle Fund - symbol BPMF) and there is one in my profile over at TalkMarkets.
My fund methodology is high diversification, usually running around 40-60 stocks from many different sectors. I rarely weight any position much over 5%. I began at Marketocracy developing an analysis method I've labeled The Fractal Base Flow Model. I've been experimenting with variations of my basic methodology with 4 other funds and a 5th where I try new things. With my first and main model fund BPMF (Bruce Pile's Mutual Fund) I did my basic method for the first 7 years or so with an alpha over 30, then strayed a little into other analysis methods that did not work as well. For the SMA, I am using the methods proven to work well.
Marketocracy is a new way of investing that solves a lot of the problems in the industry today. When investors nowadays survey their options, they are perplexed by the mish mash of risk and fees. In mutual funds, you have regulated safety where managers must diversify with less than 10% of your money in any one name in the top of your weightings scheme, making for at least around 20 stocks at any one time. The SEC also prohibits the risk of leverage and investing in dangerous derivatives, etc. But this safety is typically viewed as a tradeoff with performance vs hedge funds, where all the dangerous stuff is allowed. But the sad result of all this danger is that most hedge funds fail. The average life of a hedge fund that makes it past the first year is just 5 years. More than two thirds of all hedge funds that ever existed are now dead. There is the fund of funds option, but the high turnover means that even they must select an all new portfolio of funds about every 5 years. This makes selecting proven long-term performers virtually impossible. A fund of hedge funds will typically not only charge the high hedge fund fees of 1%-4% management fee plus 15%-25% of your returns, but will also charge fees for running the fund of funds. They pile complication upon complication and charge you for it. "Oh, and the hedge fund industry as a whole hasn’t produced alpha/added value to simple portfolios for years, since its assets under management ballooned." [FTalphaville] With typical leverage, that has grown over 15 years from around 20% to over 40% now, you get 40%more risk than mutual fund rules with no significant added performance, just more costs. And because that added leverage risk is so often concentrated in the same areas by all the large funds, inducing systemic risk, when those bets go wrong they can go very wrong. With all the above, an investor must live with the risk of having just one fund manager, or picker of rotating funds in a fund of funds. Imagine a place where you could go to sign up for an account where you could review track records and styles and risk levels of not just one guy, but up to 15 or so, and check on your account signup form how you want to spread your money among these guys. And imagine that all these managers have had to compile top ranked hedge fund performance levels for up to 15 years under the safety level of SEC rules for mutual funds. And imagine you could get all this at roughly cost of a mutual fund. It would be like opening an account and checking the names of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and all your favorite hedge fund managers to gang tackle your investment objectives. And as in any team sport, if one guy hits a cold streak, the others will carry him. No dependence on one manager. Well there is such a place - Marketocracy Capital Management. Here, thousands of people from all walks of life, from retired and active fund managers to ordinary individual investors, compete online with virtual funds. If your track record qualifies, you can open a GIPS account for real money tracking of your model fund and have client accounts track your model. My fund is one of those, ticker BPMF. FOLIOfn Institutional can open a client SMA where you can pick and choose from the best of the best long-term performers. To look into this: Phone: 1-877-462-4180 email: firstname.lastname@example.org web: marketocracy.com
Suhail Capital Management is a Cayman Domiciled Private Investment Firm. We focus on event driven long/short opportunities in what we believe to be seriously mispriced global listed securities.
Andrew Left's Citron Research (http://www.citronresearch.com/) (formally known as Stocklemon.com) seeks to expose companies whose management is in some way misleading investors. Left digs into SEC filings, financials, management histories and other data to uncover such situations, and he is usually short the stocks he writes about. Mr. Left has been publishing for 7 years and has created a track record that is unrivaled in short selling. Mr. Left has been cited in Barron's, Wall St Journal, CNBC and other major publications repeatedly for his work. Mr. Left was also an invited speaker at the reknown Master Investor Conference.
Visit: Citron Research (http://www.citronresearch.com/)
I'm author of Net Net Hunter, a site dedicated to international net net stocks. It often pays to look outside of your own backyard when investing in net net stocks. Net Net Hunter is a community based site helping investors make the most of their financial future by uncovering net net stocks in international markets. We offer investors:
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Previously spent a year interning at a hedge fund running a bottom-up, long-short, strategy. Attracted to businesses with compelling risk/rewards and impressive value creators trading at significant discounts to a cash-flow based view of intrinsic value.