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bfstrog

bfstrog
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  • The Taper Debate: The 'Cost' To QE Is Still Low - There Is Still No Inflation [View article]
    The Fed owns about 1/3 of all 10-year equivalents. This is not inconsequential.

    Monetary velocity is the lowest it has EVER BEEN (see link below) and still falling which is why inflation is nowhere to be seen. You should be more concerned with asset bubbles rather than inflation.

    http://bit.ly/111xlhg
    Dec 17, 2013. 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman's Fallacies [View article]
    TakeFive...Do you live in an economic silo called Denver? I lived in Austin for 6 months in 2009. There were a half dozen cranes eerily hovering over half completed buildings. If you visited Vegas, LA, the now bankrupt Detroit - you would find the same situation... oversupply of residential and commercial buildings without occupants. For every 1 market that you could say is "recovering" I could list 5 that aren't.

    You SHOULD care about companies buying back stock. They have chosen to deploy their capital in this manner rather than increasing their CapEx spending, which according to your selective anecdotal references is "proof of recovery". I wouldn't expect you to rely on actual data as you yourself admitted below that "I'm not much of a detail data guy, especially when it comes to history" - seriously?

    I'm not sure what conspiracy ideas you're referring to. I only stated hard facts backed by data, whereas you're cherry-picking "Concepts, connecting dots, that sort of picture stuff" to support your recovery thesis.
    Dec 16, 2013. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman's Fallacies [View article]
    Rising GDP is due to channel stuffing and inventory growth (check out detailed reports), shrinking deficits due to cut in government jobs and sequester, stock market is almost 100% correlated to the fed's balance sheet... I don't connect any of that to "recovery"

    I would counter your "investment" argument by directing you to the record amount of stock buybacks in 2013 (just google it)- why would companies be buying back their own stock if there are so many great investment opportunities?

    There were a lot of cranes hovering around buildings (never to be completed) in 2006... but I'm sure this time is different.
    Dec 13, 2013. 03:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman's Fallacies [View article]
    "The number of bodies employed has been going up, period."

    This in of itself does not mean much unless compared against the growth in the working age population. Are you offering this up as proof of recovery or just simply stating a fact?
    Dec 13, 2013. 02:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman's Fallacies [View article]
    "unemployment is going down" - real unemployment that takes into account labor force participation is not going down

    "economic growth is accelerating" - you mean channel stuffing is accelerating?
    Dec 13, 2013. 02:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volcker Rule meeting canceled due to snow [View news story]
    in related news, the snow is forecast to negatively impact GDP by 0.5%
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullard: Taper would "recognize" labor improvement [View news story]
    ZIRP and QE have no effect on inflation in a balance sheet depression (with the exception of the stock "market" wealth effect) , which has been ongoing for nearly 6 years, because the velocity of money has collapsed. You can lead a over-leveraged part time employee to a loan, but you can't make him take it, or the bank give it, when stocks are projected to go up forever. Google a chart of money velocity and it's easy to understand.

    http://bit.ly/RyAD4E

    http://bit.ly/yfiMV9
    Dec 9, 2013. 03:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart Of The Day – Wednesday, December 04, 2013 [View instapost]
    Some of the people that exit early buy a fire insurance policy on the building, as well :)
    Dec 4, 2013. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasurys back from brink after weak Philly Fed [View news story]
    Long Term Treasuries are just a bunch of short term treasuries rolled over every period, with an added risk premium. In theory, if the Fed commits to keeping short term rates low for an extended period of time (and the Fed is credible), that should depress long term rates. If LT rates rise the markets doubt this credibility, or expect inflation. This statement doesn't take into account any buying or selling from the Fed.
    Nov 21, 2013. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Barack The Government Job Slayer Had Been More Like Reagan The Government Job Creator? [View article]
    NeedmoreCoffee: I would propose that you compare GDP growth % to spending growth % over the 1993-2013 period, rather than population growth %. Population growth, IMO, is not meaningful. Only GDP growth that results from that population growth.

    I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment, which is why I commented in the first place. I am dumbfounded why SA publishes Cullen when he rushes dog crap analysis like this out the door. His article only addresses Obama and Reagan, not Bush, which is why I concentrated on Obama. I am not a proponent of Bush, nor a Republican.
    Nov 13, 2013. 08:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Barack The Government Job Slayer Had Been More Like Reagan The Government Job Creator? [View article]
    Sigh, ok, fine, let me clarify again since you're nitpicking. Spending is projected to be $3.455 trillion in 2013. This is higher than any year from 1993-2008 in inflation-adjusted dollars, while revenue is essentially flat since 2000. Proponents of Obama might say that Federal spending has gone down under his watch, but 2013, while the lowest of his 2 terms, is still higher than any other year since 1993. And I would be willing to bet that it is higher than any other year previous to that as well, in inflation adjusted dollars, and even as a % of GDP, but I need to get back to work and don't have timeto do your web searches for you.
    Nov 12, 2013. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Barack The Government Job Slayer Had Been More Like Reagan The Government Job Creator? [View article]
    Fine, I'll revise my statement: The federal debt is on track to increase by more under Obama than all 43 presidents combined. And significantly as a % of GDP.

    And, according to official spending numbers in inflation-adjusted dollars, the federal government has spent more in 2013 than in the past 20 years, even with the substantial decrease since 2009:

    http://herit.ag/1aQQVRB
    Nov 12, 2013. 08:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Barack The Government Job Slayer Had Been More Like Reagan The Government Job Creator? [View article]
    Cullen, did the thought ever cross your mind that the government outsources more work than it used to (e.g. healthcare.gov)? Last I heard Obama was on track to spend more money during his term than the 43 presidents that preceeded him. Don't get government employment confused with spending and economic impact.
    Nov 11, 2013. 01:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Internet momentum stocks sell off as Twitter soars [View news story]
    move along... this is not the bubble you're looking for
    Nov 7, 2013. 11:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Silly Analogies Go Viral... [View article]
    "It would be roughly $1500 take home pay a month needing to make a $750 monthly mortgage payment. Certainly not impossible."

    True statement. However, for the sake of the analogy you need to look at the household's expenses holistically. It has $38,200 of entitlement expenses that, due to squabbles within the household, cannot be reduced more than $38. This adds $16k of debt per year to the "mortgage" requiring the household to make debt and interest payments on $159k of debt the following year. And $175k the next year. So it's clear that unless income increases proportionally to service the household's debt, they will be fully reliant on their self-issued debt to fund payments. If someone ever refuses to buy this debt after viewing the situation I just described, game over.
    Oct 10, 2013. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
74 Comments
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