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bfstrog

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  • Paul Krugman's Fallacies [View article]
    "The number of bodies employed has been going up, period."

    This in of itself does not mean much unless compared against the growth in the working age population. Are you offering this up as proof of recovery or just simply stating a fact?
    Dec 13 02:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman's Fallacies [View article]
    "unemployment is going down" - real unemployment that takes into account labor force participation is not going down

    "economic growth is accelerating" - you mean channel stuffing is accelerating?
    Dec 13 02:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volcker Rule meeting canceled due to snow [View news story]
    in related news, the snow is forecast to negatively impact GDP by 0.5%
    Dec 10 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullard: Taper would "recognize" labor improvement [View news story]
    ZIRP and QE have no effect on inflation in a balance sheet depression (with the exception of the stock "market" wealth effect) , which has been ongoing for nearly 6 years, because the velocity of money has collapsed. You can lead a over-leveraged part time employee to a loan, but you can't make him take it, or the bank give it, when stocks are projected to go up forever. Google a chart of money velocity and it's easy to understand.

    http://bit.ly/RyAD4E

    http://bit.ly/yfiMV9
    Dec 9 03:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart Of The Day – Wednesday, December 04, 2013 [View instapost]
    Some of the people that exit early buy a fire insurance policy on the building, as well :)
    Dec 4 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasurys back from brink after weak Philly Fed [View news story]
    Long Term Treasuries are just a bunch of short term treasuries rolled over every period, with an added risk premium. In theory, if the Fed commits to keeping short term rates low for an extended period of time (and the Fed is credible), that should depress long term rates. If LT rates rise the markets doubt this credibility, or expect inflation. This statement doesn't take into account any buying or selling from the Fed.
    Nov 21 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Barack The Government Job Slayer Had Been More Like Reagan The Government Job Creator? [View article]
    NeedmoreCoffee: I would propose that you compare GDP growth % to spending growth % over the 1993-2013 period, rather than population growth %. Population growth, IMO, is not meaningful. Only GDP growth that results from that population growth.

    I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment, which is why I commented in the first place. I am dumbfounded why SA publishes Cullen when he rushes dog crap analysis like this out the door. His article only addresses Obama and Reagan, not Bush, which is why I concentrated on Obama. I am not a proponent of Bush, nor a Republican.
    Nov 13 08:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Barack The Government Job Slayer Had Been More Like Reagan The Government Job Creator? [View article]
    Sigh, ok, fine, let me clarify again since you're nitpicking. Spending is projected to be $3.455 trillion in 2013. This is higher than any year from 1993-2008 in inflation-adjusted dollars, while revenue is essentially flat since 2000. Proponents of Obama might say that Federal spending has gone down under his watch, but 2013, while the lowest of his 2 terms, is still higher than any other year since 1993. And I would be willing to bet that it is higher than any other year previous to that as well, in inflation adjusted dollars, and even as a % of GDP, but I need to get back to work and don't have timeto do your web searches for you.
    Nov 12 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Barack The Government Job Slayer Had Been More Like Reagan The Government Job Creator? [View article]
    Fine, I'll revise my statement: The federal debt is on track to increase by more under Obama than all 43 presidents combined. And significantly as a % of GDP.

    And, according to official spending numbers in inflation-adjusted dollars, the federal government has spent more in 2013 than in the past 20 years, even with the substantial decrease since 2009:

    http://herit.ag/1aQQVRB
    Nov 12 08:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Barack The Government Job Slayer Had Been More Like Reagan The Government Job Creator? [View article]
    Cullen, did the thought ever cross your mind that the government outsources more work than it used to (e.g. healthcare.gov)? Last I heard Obama was on track to spend more money during his term than the 43 presidents that preceeded him. Don't get government employment confused with spending and economic impact.
    Nov 11 01:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Internet momentum stocks sell off as Twitter soars [View news story]
    move along... this is not the bubble you're looking for
    Nov 7 11:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Silly Analogies Go Viral... [View article]
    "It would be roughly $1500 take home pay a month needing to make a $750 monthly mortgage payment. Certainly not impossible."

    True statement. However, for the sake of the analogy you need to look at the household's expenses holistically. It has $38,200 of entitlement expenses that, due to squabbles within the household, cannot be reduced more than $38. This adds $16k of debt per year to the "mortgage" requiring the household to make debt and interest payments on $159k of debt the following year. And $175k the next year. So it's clear that unless income increases proportionally to service the household's debt, they will be fully reliant on their self-issued debt to fund payments. If someone ever refuses to buy this debt after viewing the situation I just described, game over.
    Oct 10 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Silly Analogies Go Viral... [View article]
    OK, let me go a bit slower for you. You can't try to disprove a "household" analogy by asking questions that could clearly only pertain to a governmental body. For instance, no, a normal household can't tax anyone or issue its own debt. But for the sake of the example, the income ($21k) of the household is dictated by the household and the credit line ($142k) of the household is also dictated by the household (or a branch of the household), not an outside creditor. The person who authored the analogy simply calls it a household to put numbers in front of us that we can relate to. If it actually WAS a household, it couldn't have charged that much money on a credit card. Yeesh.

    The household can "coin" money (as per your retort) but that doesn't make it richer or pay off its debt, just like the treasury can "print" money but doesn't fund itself that way. If they could (legally) fund themselves by printing money, why would there be talk of a default on treasuries? Don't get the right to make physical currency, and funding ability mixed up. The treasury has to issue debt to fund itself just like this household gets a cash advance on its credit card.

    Bottom line, this analogy is mean to prove that 1 of 2 things must happen given that no one can pay off a $142k loan with a $21k income: Either the household defaults, or the household changes the laws so it can print its own money to pay off its debt($1 trillion platinum coin, anyone??), turning the numbers into a worthless hyper inflationary mess.

    Do you get it now???
    Oct 9 05:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Silly Analogies Go Viral... [View article]
    Again, another poorly thought out article from Cullen:

    -Has your household been alive for 237 years? - Irrelevant, even if I answered "no" what is the difference? That my household wouldn't have had enough time to build up an unsustainable debt load that large?

    -Does your household have the ability to print US dollars? - Probably not. Does the Treasury have the ability to "print" US dollars?? Even you claim that QE is just an "asset swap". So no, and no.

    -Does your household have the ability to sell debt denominated in the same money you print? Yes, the household has a $142,000 credit line with a $21,700 income, which could only be possible if you could issue your own debt. Do you know anyone with a credit line ~12x their income? The "credit card" is self debt issuance. It's an analogy - do you know what that means?

    -Does your household have the ability to tax other people to generate revenues? - Yes, again the "income" of $21,700 is tax revenue. Refer to my question about you understanding analogies in #3.
    Oct 9 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke: Labor market not yet there [View news story]
    Apparently he does not understand that QE is the cause of the un-recovery
    Sep 18 02:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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