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bfstrog

bfstrog
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  • Zero Hedge Is Wrong About Gold [View article]
    Christopher,

    What are you claiming Zero Hedge's thesis to be? Is it that stocks are bound to go down? Or is it that we are part of a corrupt, fascist, crony capitalist, (poorly) centrally planned klepotcracy that shifts wealth from the poor to the rich while announcing intentions to do the opposite? I read ZH a lot and I don't suddenly obtain the urge to buy some value-destroying 3x inverse ETF, or protest in Zucotti Park, or buy gold, guns ammo and canned food. ZH is in effect a news aggregator with a very tinfoil-like slant, but IMPORTANT: I find most of the facts that they post to be more insightful that anything I find in the MSM and even sometimes SA. In terms of this article, I have no idea where gold will go, but ZH presented their thesis, much like you presented yours. At this moment I don't give greater weight to either one of you.

    As for the stock market, what if we get a 50% correction? Is ZH right then? What is the threshold that you would require to give credibility to their views?
    Dec 17 05:43 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman's Fallacies [View article]
    Rising GDP is due to channel stuffing and inventory growth (check out detailed reports), shrinking deficits due to cut in government jobs and sequester, stock market is almost 100% correlated to the fed's balance sheet... I don't connect any of that to "recovery"

    I would counter your "investment" argument by directing you to the record amount of stock buybacks in 2013 (just google it)- why would companies be buying back their own stock if there are so many great investment opportunities?

    There were a lot of cranes hovering around buildings (never to be completed) in 2006... but I'm sure this time is different.
    Dec 13 03:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hugo Chavez decides to roll back government takeovers in the private sector as the limited supply of essentials such as milk, corn flour, and cement for citizens could hurt his chances for re-election in 2012. The erstwhile Marxist claims his "flexible" model of nationalization is working despite the 27% inflation and plunge in foreign direct investment that is being seen in the nation.  [View news story]
    Reminds me of some other leader that says his policies are working. Cue unintended consequences
    Dec 16 11:40 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman's Fallacies [View article]
    "unemployment is going down" - real unemployment that takes into account labor force participation is not going down

    "economic growth is accelerating" - you mean channel stuffing is accelerating?
    Dec 13 02:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke: Labor market not yet there [View news story]
    Apparently he does not understand that QE is the cause of the un-recovery
    Sep 18 02:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Doesn't Need To Default [View article]
    Cullen doesn't usually think very hard before writing. The major incorrect assumption underlying this article, as you noted, is that Japanese investors must remain in yen-denominated assets, hence their "only" choices being cash or JGBs. Er, no.
    Jun 13 05:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With today's non-farm payroll number showing an improving employment picture, the Fed is most likely to remain on the sidelines when it meets next week, says economist Mark Zandi. "Something fundamental is going on here. Businesses are finally increasing their hiring," Zandi notes. "There’s nothing in the jobs data that suggests they need to ease further at this point.”  [View news story]
    The added jobs aren't even enough to keep up with population growth. The Fed hasn't been able to stimulate demand, which is obvious to all but the most brainwashed of the population, and its only lasting effect will be rising prices in commodities that conveniently are excluded from the core CPI.
    Mar 9 09:58 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman's Fallacies [View article]
    "The number of bodies employed has been going up, period."

    This in of itself does not mean much unless compared against the growth in the working age population. Are you offering this up as proof of recovery or just simply stating a fact?
    Dec 13 02:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Burying Friedman [View article]
    Just because the ruling kleptocracy favors fiscal can-kicking through the false, temporary security known as Keynesian economics, doesn't mean Friedman is "buried". Cullen has incessantly declared victory over the Austrian economists, citing only 5 years of loose monetary and fiscal policy and the associated short term bubble economy as his evidence. Let's try this exercise again in 5 years.
    Aug 9 10:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke press conference: Should projections hold, Bernanke sees QE ending "around mid-year" 2014 and the unemployment rate being about 7% at that time. Responding to a question, he says the FOMC stands ready to quickly adjust - i.e. fire purchases back up - should it prove to have made a mistaken forecast. Stocks (SPY -0.5%) and Treasurys (TLT -1.2%) are at session lows. [View news story]
    "We'll taper, but not if we're wrong, which based on our horrible track record, we probably are."
    Jun 19 02:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Barack The Government Job Slayer Had Been More Like Reagan The Government Job Creator? [View article]
    Cullen, did the thought ever cross your mind that the government outsources more work than it used to (e.g. healthcare.gov)? Last I heard Obama was on track to spend more money during his term than the 43 presidents that preceeded him. Don't get government employment confused with spending and economic impact.
    Nov 11 01:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest On Excess Reserves Isn't Keeping Inflation Low [View article]
    "We find that, absent any frictions, lending is unaffected by the amount of reserves in the banking system."

    Cullen, you bold this statement as if it proves your thesis, but you have only "proved" that inflation is not affected by the VOLUME of reserves, not the INTEREST RATE on reserves. Do you understand the difference? In fact, you contradict yourself by posting the Fed quote that states

    "The key determinant of bank lending is the dfference [sic] between the return on loans and the opportunity cost of making a loan."

    Is not the opportunity cost of a loan affected by the interest rate on excess reserves? In fact, Bernanke has said that [eventual] tightening will entail raising this interest rate, which theoretically restricts loan demand (if there was any to begin with). I hope you're not getting paid to write these articles.
    Jul 24 04:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Isn't Bankrupt [View article]
    "If you had a printing press in your basement, would you worry about your credit card bills?"

    No, but the credit card company would catch on to the fact that their nominal asset (your debt) is being paid back with worthless currency and would stop lending to you. This inability to borrow means you can't pay your bills. Then I WOULD worry about meeting my obligations.
    Apr 4 10:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is your cash earning that much interest anywhere? No? Now that the Bank of China is allowing Americans to make deposits, Brett Arends has five reasons to think about opening an account in yuan. It's certainly one way to hedge against an economic decline in the U.S.  [View news story]
    Hu thinks this is a good idea?
    Jan 22 11:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is your cash earning that much interest anywhere? No? Now that the Bank of China is allowing Americans to make deposits, Brett Arends has five reasons to think about opening an account in yuan. It's certainly one way to hedge against an economic decline in the U.S.  [View news story]
    I'll stay in dollars to hedge against a decline in the frothy chinese economy
    Jan 22 10:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
71 Comments
146 Likes