Seeking Alpha

Dagger55555

Dagger55555
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Dagger55555's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Windows 8.1 Fail: Now, What? [View article]
    Kofi=ignore
    Sep 30, 2013. 10:24 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Loser Strategy [View article]
    Question to those who think Apple is doing the right thing:
    How do you think this plays out long term?

    By observation bears seem to quote long term trends, while bulls quote past, current and near future. I don't think anybody can deny Apples past successes, but I tend to think long term and go with the bears. So I'm trying to learn why promoters think the company's decisions lead to long term success in a market that is always changing. That is, just because Apple did something years ago doesn't mean that it can or will do it again.

    My take is that Apple medium term (2-3 years) keeps 10-15% market share as they seem to be happy with that range. App developers start choosing to make Android first with 70-75% share; this is actually starting already. MS builds to 15-10% over that time frame so app developers decide on whether Windows or iPhone is next best (probably depends on business/consumer market). This leads to Apple losing share and falls to 3rd place behind MS. In 4-5 years they become a niche player by market percentage although they may still grow overall sales with general market growth. That is, unless they can pull yet another rabbit out of their hat and I'm not betting my money on that.

    Please respond if you have value to add. Not sure if "Rubbish!" or "Idiot!" helps anybody decide how to invest.
    Sep 12, 2013. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Loser Strategy [View article]
    When did he say that relative to his recent stock buying?
    I wonder why and I wonder when he will sell.
    Sep 12, 2013. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Loser Strategy [View article]
    Interesting list of items. All consumer goods, where people are willing to spend more for the trust in quality (it wont kill me or cause as many rashes). They also IMHO do project the air of ultra-premium products so they can charge more. A lot of companies also sell under lesser brand names so they can target all the markets. Car manufactures do that as well.

    Apple doesn't have a 2nd line. As far as eco-systems are concerned I'm not sure apple has a lock there either: my 17 year old daughter just asked for a cheap Android now that her older iPhone died and wants a Lumia 1020 when it comes out. So much for loyalty.
    Sep 12, 2013. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Loser Strategy [View article]
    nguyenvanphuoc: lots of big companies have insight into the global mobile phone business and come up with different strategies. I assume you are taking the position they all have better processes and insights than us lowly individuals so we should never question them. Or are you saying, that only Apple has talent and we should blindly follow? Either way, do you really have to be chef to recognize good food? Right now, I'm with the author in thinking that Apple is making decisions for short term gains and not long term ones. Nokia did that by sticking with Symbian too long...but why learn from other people's mistakes?
    Sep 12, 2013. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple board pressuring Cook over "pace of innovation" [View news story]
    Because most people think the risk against it continuing is high. The money is saying that profits are coming down in the near future and that the company is unlikely to produce another gadget that is going to change that. If you disagree, buy more AAPL and make a bundle as the stock will go up.
    Aug 9, 2013. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Microsoft Milk Google Also? [View article]
    This will be interesting to see play out. For once both companies are fighting without a home turf advantage. Maybe the laws (as good as they are) will be applied evenly. If so, my money is on MS simply because of the precedents outlined.
    Aug 9, 2013. 02:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple board pressuring Cook over "pace of innovation" [View news story]
    The board is just doing their job by pushing the CEO to deliver. That is normal procedure, isn't it? I hardly consider that "drama" as the story says. I also didn't see a reference to "demanding" or "bean counters". Must be an interesting place where you think the board isn't qualified to say or do anything that might upset Tim.
    Aug 9, 2013. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple board pressuring Cook over "pace of innovation" [View news story]
    Whether you love or hate Fox, take the emotion out of your thoughts and just ask yourself if the facts could be true. I'm leaning towards true based on Apple's recent performance. And assuming true, it also makes me think that good news isn't around the corner in any significant way, otherwise, I think the board would have backed off. If a board isn't pushing to some degree then they aren't doing their job IMHO.
    Aug 9, 2013. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple board pressuring Cook over "pace of innovation" [View news story]
    Sounds like Nokia's old strategy....right up to the point they stop selling and find there is nothing decent on the shelves because they forgot about the future. And in a market where buying something 6 months old feels like your getting something already obsolete it is hard to charge a premium like Apple does. Add to that, the fact that your not making headlines and in a puff a logic your market share vanishes. But as a MS long, I love your thinking.
    Aug 9, 2013. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Surface Pro: Second Time's A Charm? [View article]
    Sounds like MS is keeping you employed! As a desktop app developer, I can assure you I'm very aware of issues that affect Windows. And like the other OSes, my experience indicates that most of the problems that people attribute to Windows can be traced back the application or hardware issues. You may be able to argue that the Windows eco system should have been managed better, but I don't think the current Windows OSes are fundamentally flawed.

    As far as the other OSes: many iOS apps just close on me and you seriously can't tell me Android is safer the Windows. The difference is that when Windows or Window's apps go down they tend to be mission critical. Because of that, I'd also bet that Windows is held to a higher standard then the other OSes. Would be interesting to see some metrics on that thought.

    I just don't bother calling anyone when my iPhone randomly reboots (and it does). I call when I can't print an invoice from Windows because of a network issue. Apple has done a good job of convincing everyone that nothing is their fault. I've had one person with the same issue on Mac and Windows claim that it had to a MS issue (hardware actually) and actually denied the Mac problem even after I showed him. I've had others on Mac just say, "no big deal. I just rebooted" while on Windows I get, "I had to reboot this piece of $#!^". Same frequency of issues.

    It's all about perception I guess and it is going to take a while longer for MS to shake it's bad image.
    Aug 8, 2013. 01:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Surface Pro: Second Time's A Charm? [View article]
    What I'm reading is that you like windows on a small device and see the availability of apps growing. But all those apps will also work if you change the ARM processor to an Intel one. But as a bonus all those legacy apps that many of us still need will also work. There is no downside to switching out. Those of us who think RT should go are not saying that windows shouldn't exist on smaller devices and we aren't saying that the experience you enjoy needs to go. We are just saying that customers don't need to give up anything.
    Aug 8, 2013. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Surface Pro: Second Time's A Charm? [View article]
    Totally disagree with your thoughts. But let's stick with the last couple of years. Windows is no longer the buggy OS you recall. I can't think of the last BSOD I have had and I push my systems. Security issues are a big issue and you would have a lot of selling to do to convince me that Android and iOS are safer than Windows. You may recall you could even bypass the iPhone's password with the right set of button pushes causing a hotfix from apple. Or how about iPhone crippling mail servers requiring a hot fix. Or how about virtually Android being compromised. see http://bit.ly/15O1gbZ. Now it is up to every vendor to get patches out. That is a horrible experience and if you have an older device - well that may never get updated.
    If you don't already, subscribe to some security news.

    I agree that Surface 1 was soundly rejected but that does not imply Surface 2 will be. I didn't get a Surface, because the eco-system wasn't there for RT and the battery life/value wasn't there for PRO. If WinTel delivers battery/performance then it will come down to which model I will get in the next gen.

    That all being said, RT IS confusing everyone and may have been a hedge against Intel not showing up to the game. Now that they are at the table, I'm not sure why they can't have a Surface and Surface PRO both running Intel. I don't understand what ARM now offers.
    Aug 7, 2013. 12:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hey, Apple Longs, Don't Sweat The Mediocre Moto X [View article]
    Thanks for the concern, but I fully understand profit margin. The question is can they continue to generate the margins they have in the past. From what I see around me and the best independent numbers I can find, I see a trend that doesn't look good. Apple is starting to look like past leaders (Nokia, MS or Palm) of a few years ago that didn't switch up quick enough. I WANT Apple to succeed, but they haven't shown me anything to get excited about and trends change very quickly.

    To you point on CEO comments. Are you thinking that management should never re-evaluate the market or their strategy? Certainly another strategy is low margin but with high volume. Also this is a never ending game so investing (even losing money) in a strategy to gain market share and then turn that into margin in the future is not always a bad plan. Lastly, their new 5C seems to contradict those dated comments about chasing market share. Help me reconcile that. Given Apple's CEOs are supper secretive and have mislead in the past, I don't put much value on comments like that either way.

    My next phone is not going to be an apple based upon the value I'm getting with their current offerings. Unless they release something great soon (hope they do) then upside reward owning Apple stock is not there and downside risk looms. It doesn't really even matter if I'm wrong about the facts. If others think like me then the stock will stay where it is. I want onto ships that are starting to create positive hype. Sorry, but that isn't AAPL today. I'll be happy for everyone who owns the stock and benefits when it shoots back up, but I'm afraid I won't be at that party.
    Aug 3, 2013. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hey, Apple Longs, Don't Sweat The Mediocre Moto X [View article]
    As a start, do you have the high end market data?

    But hey, I'm just looking at the IDC numbers and seeing share is dropping and given unit numbers ARE going up then concluding that overall market had to grow. Not sure what else to conclude.

    However, I'm not sure I agree that only high end market data matters. I also assume that everyone who builds a low or mid range phone disagrees with that thought - so I guess they care. My thinking is that eventually, global market share has to translate into revenue and hopefully profit. Economy of scale will reduce unit costs and revenue can come from the device, search, or just other services offered. If I have control over the eyes then whatever money you do have to spend will likely come my way. If I understand correctly even Apple is coming around to that thought with an iPhone 5C. Not saying that you can't make a lot of money doing only high end, but that isn't the only market that counts.

    If I extend your logic to the automotive industry, then I gather you only care how many luxury cars are sold in NA or Europe. I think that is a fair comparison within the constraints of this discussion.

    I think it is a cardinal sin to think there is only one market segment that matters.
    Aug 2, 2013. 05:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
53 Comments
89 Likes