BxCap

49 Comments

    • Suncor, US Bancorp and MasterCard: Using a Stop Loss When Investing [view article]
      I think pattern recongition is important, especially for people that have suffered head trauma. Trading techniques like these are a way to self-diagnose brain impairments, and are therefore tools of great value to individuals living far from population centers who may have incurred undiagnose brain damage. Jul 17 08:21 AM
    • Putting $1T Subprime Mortgage Losses in Perspective [view article]
      Strutzma and Snuggles nailed that one, and although I like Carpe Diem at times, Dr. Perry showed a complete lack of understanding, allowing Forbes to dupe him using statistical cherry-picking. Jul 11 07:14 PM
    • Citigroup's Flush [view article]
      Update. Meredith Whitney was right, as C now trades closer to her estimate of 11-12 than this article's non-sense. MW has just revised her estimate....lower. The situation WAS worse than the writer thought. Jul 04 12:39 AM
    • Freeport McMoran: With Copper Prices Rising, It's Still a Buy [view article]
      First of all, the Cerre Verde strike will derail only 8% of their total copper and 5% of their total moly, so don't get too worried over it. I used their website for that calculation. As for Q2 2008, using the Conference Call Statement "Two-thirds of our copper sales are sold under industry standard contracts. What this means for us is that about half of our sales in any quarter are going to be priced at the price at the end of the quarter and not at the average price during the quarter". Price on last day was $3.86, average for quarter was around $3.70, giving us $3.78 x 930M lbs copper (Conference Call expected Q2 quantities) plus 225T x $896 Gold plus 18M lbs Moly x $34 = $4.33M revenue from metal sales. Last quarter the misc revenues were $1.4B so let's use that same number and we've got $5.73B revenues. The EPS is tricky, not due to energy costs or dollar conversions (which can be difficult to gage), no, this quarter it's tax rate. Last quarter was 33% but that was unusual. I'm going with 39% and yielding $2.54/share EPS. Right now Q3 and Q4 have $6.72B Revenue and $4.08/share EPS based on the Q1 CC quantities, but I'll update when Q2 CC is held. This stock is math, not geopolitical mumbo jumbo, lines drawn on graphs or something you heard Adami say. Financial Analysis is the long term investors friend. Jul 03 09:53 PM
    • Is Silver Standard Resources Undervalued? [view article]
      I now have a private blog, by invitation only, to avoid the constant spamming. My new blog is even more focused on Financial Analysis, and you can request admission by writing to "fineartofresurfa...


      On May 27 10:21 PM vse wrote:

      > Dear BxCapricorn -
      > I had been reading and thoroughly enjoying your blog for some time,
      > and was shocked when one day it seemed to vanish. Can I respectfully
      > ask why, and/or if you have a link to a new blog destination? <br/>
      >
      > Best Regards,
      > B. Kaiser
      >
      > On May 22 09:01 AM BxCapricorn wrote:       Jun 27 12:21 PM
    • Why I Am Selling Precious Metals [view article]
      Normally I like your posts, but you seem to be all over the place with your logic, and that's very understandable considering the beating these stocks just took. You would have done better to review the stocks, without the dollar being strong or weak. The SLW drop had more to do with shipping delays and volume shortfalls than the average price of silver for the quarter. The two put together resulted in a record Net Income, but failed to meet street expectations, as the company provided no guidance regarding the shipping delays and continues to expect 13-15 million ounces in 2008. This makes them like FCX, weighted on the back half of the year. May 06 10:07 AM
    • $200 Oil, $2000 Gold? [view article]
      Enjoyed the article, thanks to all for the ideas and ETF's. I wouldn't worry to much about this article's applicability for those that cannot afford $500/month for investments. I doubt they read this website. Apr 26 08:55 PM
    • Citigroup's Flush [view article]
      Update: 4/21/08 Parmalat (Italian) just got the OK to sue Citigroup over events that took place in 2003. Funny how the obvious keeps happening. Apr 21 12:40 PM
    • Citigroup's Flush [view article]
      Voice of Reason, I went through this same debate dynamic with Newcastle (NCT) back in December, and I though those that were bearish and thought the once $35 stock, then at $13, was a steal based on their book value of $18 plus. With every write down or mark-to-market, it got worse. Luckily I just bit the bullet and sold my position, bought at $16.50, for $13.50. Three months later, it's banging around $8-9/share, and I still feel badly for those that, like me at the time, were believers. They had done a lot of homework, but you can't see through the curtain all of the time. In fact, you're not supposed to see through it, as "information-with... protects the interests and investments of these companies. Great points made about lawsuits, and the inaccuracies of analysts. Enjoyed the thread. Apr 20 07:36 PM
    • Citigroup's Flush [view article]
      Enter your comment herehttp://flippersint...

      This might help you understand Alt-A....Sacramento Style....       Apr 18 07:25 PM
    • Citigroup's Flush [view article]
      Meredith Whitney says the quarter for Citigroup may be $3.00 to the downside and it comes in at $2.20 in the hole and everyone's dancing in the streets? Lehman has $84B in Alt-A and NO ONE is paying their mortgages in CA, NV, FL, and CO. Citigroup is out of the student loan business, and out of the mortgage business. SIV's are about to be a thing of the past. CDO's aren't moving anywhere, Citigroup just lost a court case associated with Enron, showing you how long liabilities really last, and you're trying to pump Citigroup to me? Only a Sovereign Wealth Fund or billionaire gambler could be that dumb. Read George Soros' "The Alchemy of Finance", pages 84-89. Apr 18 07:00 PM
    • Carry Trade Crisis Looming? [view article]
      I don't even think Crooks mentioned the Bank of Japan, and the fairly even odds that they'll cut their rate even further, to help their exporters. That would have been logical to discuss. Apr 06 09:40 PM
    • Accounting Antics Lift I-Bank Earnings - Barron's [view article]
      "Assuming the issuers don't default" -- You really have to read about the sheer volume of foreclosures, notice of defaults, and "squatting" that is going on in this country, as people with loans they cannot even make payments on (regardless of the declining LIBOR), have stopped, knowing that they cannot sell the property, but comfortable knowing that their mortgage holder cannot afford more foreclosure expenses. We are not yet at a housing "bottom" and yet one mind entertain the idea that the future holds "par" value for these leveraged debt instruments? People like Meredith Whitney, Bill Ackman, Whitney Tilson, and now Brad Hintz have shown you that the financial shenanigans detailed by forensic accountants (i.e. Dr. Howard Schilit) in their books, are alive and well! Quarterlies are not audited, as the first commenter pointed out. We won't make it to year end though, before we find out the reality of what happens when loan non-payments start to domino. Apr 06 04:38 PM
    • A Rising Tide Will Raise DryShips - Barron's [view article]
      shipping.capitallink.c...

      Since DRYS is mostly exposed to changes in the BPI. This like should be watched closely by DRYS investors.       Apr 06 12:36 PM
    • Learning from George Soros' Books [view article]
      I wanted to add that I always enjoy your pieces David and am glad to hear you say that data is used as if it is not compromised. For instance, the past six years of market data has co-mingled with a trader's market. Where do you draw the line between useful information on how stocks react under certain circumstances, when you have option trading, two new Dow 30 components, credit default swaps influencing bonds, hedge fund implosions, government intervention on multiple levels, and numerous financial packages that appear and disappear (CDO, ABS, MBS, CDS, etc.). And yet, economists and financial pundits treat charts, graphs and pools of data as if they are something upon which you can formulate a law, theory, postulate, or observation. I'm glad you brought up that aspect of your past, as again, something we can all learn from. Mar 29 12:17 AM
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