BxCap's Comments

Suncor, US Bancorp and MasterCard: Using a Stop Loss When Investing

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:21:16 -0400

I think pattern recongition is important, especially for people that have suffered head trauma. Trading techniques like these are a way to self-diagnose brain impairments, and are therefore tools of great value to individuals living far from population centers who may have incurred undiagnose brain damage.

Putting $1T Subprime Mortgage Losses in Perspective

Fri, 11 Jul 2008 19:14:49 -0400

Strutzma and Snuggles nailed that one, and although I like Carpe Diem at times, Dr. Perry showed a complete lack of understanding, allowing Forbes to dupe him using statistical cherry-picking.

Citigroup's Flush

Fri, 04 Jul 2008 00:39:00 -0400

Update. Meredith Whitney was right, as C now trades closer to her estimate of 11-12 than this article's non-sense. MW has just revised her estimate....lower. The situation WAS worse than the writer thought.

Freeport McMoran: With Copper Prices Rising, It's Still a Buy

Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:53:22 -0400

First of all, the Cerre Verde strike will derail only 8% of their total copper and 5% of their total moly, so don't get too worried over it. I used their website for that calculation. As for Q2 2008, using the Conference Call Statement "Two-thirds of our copper sales are sold under industry standard contracts. What this means for us is that about half of our sales in any quarter are going to be priced at the price at the end of the quarter and not at the average price during the quarter". Price on last day was $3.86, average for quarter was around $3.70, giving us $3.78 x 930M lbs copper (Conference Call expected Q2 quantities) plus 225T x $896 Gold plus 18M lbs Moly x $34 = $4.33M revenue from metal sales. Last quarter the misc revenues were $1.4B so let's use that same number and we've got $5.73B revenues. The EPS is tricky, not due to energy costs or dollar conversions (which can be difficult to gage), no, this quarter it's tax rate. Last quarter was 33% but that was unusual. I'm going with 39% and yielding $2.54/share EPS. Right now Q3 and Q4 have $6.72B Revenue and $4.08/share EPS based on the Q1 CC quantities, but I'll update when Q2 CC is held. This stock is math, not geopolitical mumbo jumbo, lines drawn on graphs or something you heard Adami say. Financial Analysis is the long term investors friend.

Is Silver Standard Resources Undervalued?

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 12:21:06 -0400

I now have a private blog, by invitation only, to avoid the constant spamming. My new blog is even more focused on Financial Analysis, and you can request admission by writing to "fineartofresurfacing@...

On May 27 10:21 PM vse wrote:

> Dear BxCapricorn -
> I had been reading and thoroughly enjoying your blog for some time,
> and was shocked when one day it seemed to vanish. Can I respectfully
> ask why, and/or if you have a link to a new blog destination?

>
> Best Regards,
> B. Kaiser
>
> On May 22 09:01 AM BxCapricorn wrote:

Why I Am Selling Precious Metals

Tue, 06 May 2008 10:07:51 -0400

Normally I like your posts, but you seem to be all over the place with your logic, and that's very understandable considering the beating these stocks just took. You would have done better to review the stocks, without the dollar being strong or weak. The SLW drop had more to do with shipping delays and volume shortfalls than the average price of silver for the quarter. The two put together resulted in a record Net Income, but failed to meet street expectations, as the company provided no guidance regarding the shipping delays and continues to expect 13-15 million ounces in 2008. This makes them like FCX, weighted on the back half of the year.

$200 Oil, $2000 Gold?

Sat, 26 Apr 2008 20:55:35 -0400

Enjoyed the article, thanks to all for the ideas and ETF's. I wouldn't worry to much about this article's applicability for those that cannot afford $500/month for investments. I doubt they read this website.

Citigroup's Flush

Mon, 21 Apr 2008 12:40:52 -0400

Update: 4/21/08 Parmalat (Italian) just got the OK to sue Citigroup over events that took place in 2003. Funny how the obvious keeps happening.

Citigroup's Flush

Sun, 20 Apr 2008 19:36:57 -0400

Voice of Reason, I went through this same debate dynamic with Newcastle (NCT) back in December, and I though those that were bearish and thought the once $35 stock, then at $13, was a steal based on their book value of $18 plus. With every write down or mark-to-market, it got worse. Luckily I just bit the bullet and sold my position, bought at $16.50, for $13.50. Three months later, it's banging around $8-9/share, and I still feel badly for those that, like me at the time, were believers. They had done a lot of homework, but you can't see through the curtain all of the time. In fact, you're not supposed to see through it, as "information-withholdi... protects the interests and investments of these companies. Great points made about lawsuits, and the inaccuracies of analysts. Enjoyed the thread.

Citigroup's Flush

Fri, 18 Apr 2008 19:25:29 -0400

Enter your comment herehttp://flippersint...

This might help you understand Alt-A....Sacramento Style....

Citigroup's Flush

Fri, 18 Apr 2008 19:00:41 -0400

Meredith Whitney says the quarter for Citigroup may be $3.00 to the downside and it comes in at $2.20 in the hole and everyone's dancing in the streets? Lehman has $84B in Alt-A and NO ONE is paying their mortgages in CA, NV, FL, and CO. Citigroup is out of the student loan business, and out of the mortgage business. SIV's are about to be a thing of the past. CDO's aren't moving anywhere, Citigroup just lost a court case associated with Enron, showing you how long liabilities really last, and you're trying to pump Citigroup to me? Only a Sovereign Wealth Fund or billionaire gambler could be that dumb. Read George Soros' "The Alchemy of Finance", pages 84-89.

Carry Trade Crisis Looming?

Sun, 06 Apr 2008 21:40:57 -0400

I don't even think Crooks mentioned the Bank of Japan, and the fairly even odds that they'll cut their rate even further, to help their exporters. That would have been logical to discuss.

Accounting Antics Lift I-Bank Earnings - Barron's

Sun, 06 Apr 2008 16:38:59 -0400

"Assuming the issuers don't default" -- You really have to read about the sheer volume of foreclosures, notice of defaults, and "squatting" that is going on in this country, as people with loans they cannot even make payments on (regardless of the declining LIBOR), have stopped, knowing that they cannot sell the property, but comfortable knowing that their mortgage holder cannot afford more foreclosure expenses. We are not yet at a housing "bottom" and yet one mind entertain the idea that the future holds "par" value for these leveraged debt instruments? People like Meredith Whitney, Bill Ackman, Whitney Tilson, and now Brad Hintz have shown you that the financial shenanigans detailed by forensic accountants (i.e. Dr. Howard Schilit) in their books, are alive and well! Quarterlies are not audited, as the first commenter pointed out. We won't make it to year end though, before we find out the reality of what happens when loan non-payments start to domino.

A Rising Tide Will Raise DryShips - Barron's

Sun, 06 Apr 2008 12:36:40 -0400

shipping.capitallink.c...

Since DRYS is mostly exposed to changes in the BPI. This like should be watched closely by DRYS investors.

Learning from George Soros' Books

Sat, 29 Mar 2008 00:17:34 -0400

I wanted to add that I always enjoy your pieces David and am glad to hear you say that data is used as if it is not compromised. For instance, the past six years of market data has co-mingled with a trader's market. Where do you draw the line between useful information on how stocks react under certain circumstances, when you have option trading, two new Dow 30 components, credit default swaps influencing bonds, hedge fund implosions, government intervention on multiple levels, and numerous financial packages that appear and disappear (CDO, ABS, MBS, CDS, etc.). And yet, economists and financial pundits treat charts, graphs and pools of data as if they are something upon which you can formulate a law, theory, postulate, or observation. I'm glad you brought up that aspect of your past, as again, something we can all learn from.

Learning from George Soros' Books

Sat, 29 Mar 2008 00:08:59 -0400

I've read three of Soros' works and a speech he gave on the Theory of Reflexivity, and he does use quite a few words to explain some very simple ideas. His works are worth the time, but if you can find a synopsis, use that instead.

www.geocities.com/ecoc...

Time To Short the British Pound?

Thu, 27 Mar 2008 16:05:59 -0400

The FXB wouldn't short the UK Pound. From the summary....
The investment seeks to track the price of the British Pound Sterling, net of trust expenses. The fund seeks to reflect the price of the British Pound Sterling. The sponsor believes that, for many investors, the shares represent a cost-effective investment relative to traditional means of investing in the foreign exchange market. The fund is nondiversified.

I would want the ultra-inverse or inverse if I was shorting, no?

Cramer vs. Buffett: An ETF Perspective

Thu, 27 Mar 2008 09:27:04 -0400

I actually prefer my post of the Five Stages of Cramer....

bxcapricorn.wordpress..../

Why I Am Cutting Back on Commodities

Tue, 25 Mar 2008 22:14:21 -0400

This was amusing, because over the past few days I have also done and thought the same. It's like trying to hit a knuckle ball, and during these times, I always buy the same ETF....WTF.

JP Morgan To Buy Bear Stearns For $2/Share

Sun, 16 Mar 2008 23:17:23 -0400

Oh, if only Microsoft could do that to Yahoo!

Should the US Government Buy Bank Equity?

Thu, 13 Mar 2008 11:03:51 -0400

Hey Scholes. Thanks for "options". It's really helped stabilize the world's largest casino.

Why We're Still in the Early Innings of the Bursting of the Housing and Credit Bubbles - And Implications for MBIA and Ambac

Sat, 08 Mar 2008 18:07:43 -0500

Sorry about User 155868. It is obvious that they did not read Bill Ackman's original November 2007 presentation on the monoline insurers. Your presentation approached the situation from a less generalized view and shown the holdings as close to source as possible, leaving no room for doubt.

Why We're Still in the Early Innings of the Bursting of the Housing and Credit Bubbles - And Implications for MBIA and Ambac

Sat, 08 Mar 2008 18:03:39 -0500

Great presentation Whitney. Thanks for allowing the average investor the access to such valuable information.

Hedge Fund Holdings Still Underperforming?

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 16:53:44 -0500

Once again, I thank you for posting this information. I know exactly where I'll be on March 30th, when redemptions force this once proud and hard-working sector of the financial industry, to liquidate holdings.

Annaly Capital: Outstanding Performance in a Down Market

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 10:47:58 -0500

Wrong.

Yen Carry Trade Hits a Critical Juncture

Wed, 05 Mar 2008 23:53:46 -0500

I agree with the previous post. YCT is dead, at least as far as U.S. Markets are concerned.

Ambac, MBIA Are Still Shorts Amidst This Wink-and-Nod

Thu, 28 Feb 2008 09:13:19 -0500

Thank you for this eye-opening post Whitney.

Screaming Hot Producer Prices

Wed, 27 Feb 2008 00:40:48 -0500

Was it the "Screaming Hot" theme that threw your game, Barry.

Screaming Hot Producer Prices

Tue, 26 Feb 2008 21:58:18 -0500

"As the delightful chart porn above shows" Thank you for that visual.

Fed Continues to Discourage Regular Joe Americans from Saving

Tue, 26 Feb 2008 11:54:58 -0500

Imagine actually spending the $168 Billion on infrastructure? You would re-vitalize American construction, equipment, and engineering companies, provide jobs for people that invested great sums of money in their own education, and employment for those that work the trades. They would all share an interesting characteristic. They would all be, gulp, American.

Instead, as you pointed out, we are encouraged to buy foreign made consumables, vice save, in order to stimulate a financial system that should be allowed collapse under the weight of the pyramid of CDO's, CDS, ABS, and (insert favorite acronym here).