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  • Overpriced And Overstretched, Kellogg's Is Not G-R-R-Reat  [View article]
    K may seem like a good defensive stock, but many value and defensive investors also do their due diligence and K is very overvalued as the author notes. With a total debt to equity of 2.98, below 1 is ideal, K is over leveraged. A PEG of 16.9, indicating just as the author mentioned very little growth expected, actually in some of their selling regions negative growth. Then a price to book of a super high 9.8 value investors look for 1.5 or below.

    Definitely overvalued.
    Feb 12, 2016. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T nears 52-week high; Moody's frets debt outlook  [View news story]
    Likely many long term T holders on this thread, understandably they are biased, however for potential new long-term buyers, high debt is a factor to always consider no matter what the purpose of it is in any company.
    Feb 4, 2016. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The OPEC Put - Sets A Floor For Oil Prices  [View article]
    I agree, many of these countries cannot meet their costs at $25, thus brings everyone whom generally would not negotiate with one another to the talking.
    Jan 29, 2016. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Waste Connections - Great Business, Great Acquisition, Too High Valuation  [View article]
    I agree, I shorted at 58.34.
    Jan 22, 2016. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waste Connections - Great Business, Great Acquisition, Too High Valuation  [View article]
    WCN moved up to 59 plus today, valuations is far too high for value investors and there is not sufficient growth for a momentum/growth investors.
    Jan 21, 2016. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. airlines fail to fly higher despite Credit Suisse bullish call  [View news story]
    Always look forward, be thankful for profits and use what you have learnt going ahead. Living in the past prevents enjoying life in the now.
    Jan 11, 2016. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's slashes guidance after cold weather goods don't move  [View news story]
    I agree, a red flag seems if Terry Lundgren was confident in sales, why would the company be considering selling premium assets it's real estate. This acute restructuring seems a last resort move reserved for a tenuous situation.

    It seems reasonable that if a company was confident of it's future sales growth it would not be selling it's key assets.
    Jan 7, 2016. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's Price Target $50: The Worst Is Officially Over  [View article]
    My concern would be that Macy's CEO Terry Lundgren is an expert in retail, well known for this, albeit even he has not been able to translate his talent and vast experience into increased earnings for Macy's, in this very competitive Brick's and Mortar environment. Will he and his team be able to translate their retail skills to real estate.

    Online customer reviews are also not significantly positive of Macy's, it seems Macy's is having a challenging time building a strong base of loyal customers in online and in store, a further examination of why would be needed. Placing a lot of emphasis on real estate as Sears attempted to do and failed, may or may not work for Macy's, if Macy's management was confident of being able to turnaround sales a question in my mind is why would they decide to sell their most valuable assets their real estate. I personally see a lot of red flags, any potential investor may be wise to wait on the sidelines to see how this plays out.
    Jan 7, 2016. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TD Bank: Growth At A Reasonable Price  [View article]
    Exposure to US markets as the author noted is one key factor in supporting the premium valuation in comparison to other Cdn banks.
    Jan 4, 2016. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Royal Bank Of Canada: Best In Class  [View article]
    RY is a well managed bank, albeit the concern is the Cdn economy. Growth will not come from spending on infrastructure as Trudeau is suggesting rather meaningful innovation and strategically diversifying the economy beyond commodities. Growth is projected at 2% and holding into 2020.
    RY is going to have to expand into other economies to growth their revenue.

    It pays a solid, reliable dividend, but until commodities increase or the Cdn economy truly grows based on increased productivity, sustainable diversification and increased private spending not just public growing a large domestic customer base is limited for RY.
    Jan 4, 2016. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's clears the $120 level for the first time  [View news story]
    Correction of information in my comment: I thought MCD did not have any loyalty cards or promotions albeit they didn't as recent as 2014, however they have since started one yet to be seen like all day breakfast if it is well received.
    Dec 30, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Shows Why It's Tough To Be McDonald's  [View article]
    I agree with your final conclusion, including MCD is not cheap, with a PEG of 3.15 as well too high for a growth investor and for a true value investor. With headwinds including 3 years of decelerating sales, slowing growth in Asia, immense and growing competition globally, consumer trends towards healthier dietary choices, US new Dietary recommendations released this year encouraging less meat/dairy/eggs MCD's menu focus and more plant based foods ie. beans/complex carbs,/fresh fruit/vegetables ect.. all in the new guidelines, increasing labor costs ie. increased wages in US and others, changes on a large scale taking time as you aptly mention all give plenty of rational reason for any potential long-term investor to wait for a better entry point and diligently look for better valued opportunities with other companies.

    Albeit a small beat on rev this Q, 6.62 B, verses 6.42 expected revenue was down 5.3% of same Q last year, so was EPS from a year ago. This is after many Q's of flat or decreasing EPS/rev. MCD's main business is real estate whose fundamentals haven't changed significantly certainly not enough to warrant a 20 dollar rise in price. Possibly all day breakfast and other changes to the menu will provide an incremental increase in revenue and EPS, right now it is new/novel which could be drawing new customers. However I don't see how with consumer's trends towards healthier options, as well based on many online reviews dubious reviews of food quality/restaurant cleanliness, competition...how a large new base of loyal customers can be developed for sales to grow astronomically enough to support a lofty share price which MCD based on momentum seems to be continually moving towards. Being a very visible, well known, company MCD attracts a lot of new investors when there are far more better valued companies, w/ better dividends but they require some research to find them and understand all their fundamentals.
    Dec 30, 2015. 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's clears the $120 level for the first time  [View news story]
    I respect there are many long-term shareholders on this thread. Albeit with many headwinds including:

    1, Intense competition in the global fast food market
    2. Increased labor costs ie. minimum wage increasingly possible/likely in US,
    3. Declining growth in Asia
    4. Shifting consumption towards healthier options which MCD is not known for the all day breakfasts are high in heart disease/stroke causing saturated fat
    5. 3 years of decreasing global comps, a well known brand which should increase it's value, but often not for positive reasons ie. for poor food quality dubious in store cleanliness and
    6.A PEG of 3.15 to high for a growth investor or a value investor, 120 is priced for significant growth
    7.Last quarter, Q3 revenue of 6.62 B beat cons of 6.41 B albeit, was down 5.3% from the same Q last year, as was EPS, this does not support strong growth.
    8. MCD's main business is real estate not all day breakfast, whose fundamentals are the same thus do not support a 20 dollar increase in share price within 3 mths.


    I would be cautious ahead of buying MCD at an all time high. All day breakfast if it does create long-term loyal customers (MCD doesn't have loyalty cards and promotions/gifts for long-term customers like Starbucks does either), it can only create relatively incremental growth not exuberant growth which could then support a loft share price.

    If insiders of MCD were confident of MCD's turnaround it is reasonable to conclude they would be buying shares ahead of earnings towards end of January rather all there have been is sales ie. by EVP David Fairhurst and Jose Armario in Nov.

    People are rushing to buy shares, rather than waiting a few quarters to see if MCD's deteriorating fundamentals are solidly and credibly improving. Competition is only increasing, new US dietary recommendations released this year encourage less meat/dairy which is the focus of MCD's menu in favor of healthier fare which will effect long-term consumption trends. Buying MCD overall at these prices is a gamble and speculation, as a run up to Q4, betting/gambling same store sales are positive and EPS and rev. beat cons. If a long-term investor is potentially interested in MCD wait a few Q's to assess fundamentals, and for a pullback/price consolidation which will happen for any number of reasons companies always do. Then hold it, collect the dividends and wait for a higher price if you wish to sell. All day breakfast can only provide incremental growth not exuberant growth supporting a much higher share price. There is never a rush to buy any company at any time there are always opportunities in all sectors.
    Dec 29, 2015. 11:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Poor Holiday Retail Morale Makes Macy's An Opportunity  [View article]
    The comments from current and prior employees on Glassdoor in a range of positions are overall positive, many stating for a range of reasons they have or currently like working at Macy's.

    However interestingly the 100's of customer reviews online are largely negative albeit some are extremely positive. Based on the reviews some of which are thoughtful long responses....there appears more people adamant they will not return than those whom are dedicated long-term Macy's customers. Much more research would be needed however the above is based on a preliminary examination.
    Dec 9, 2015. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Stagnant Prices Benefit Dividend Growth Investors - The MCD Example  [View article]
    Very helpful to have this strategy re-affirmed, thank-you.
    Dec 7, 2015. 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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