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  • Income And Possible Upside With Microsoft [View article]
    I am with chanella. windos vista, 7, 8, and on and on are absolutely hateful systems compared to xp. Couldn't they just have renamed xp instead of all of this frustration.

    If the gov. wants their spy programs in there I am sure it can be done with less disruption to the users.
    Sep 22, 2012. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Rates Be At Zero Until 2016? [View article]
    Maybe 2% will drop out of the work force and be reclassified as not looking for work..
    Sep 21, 2012. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be The Equivalent Of A Stock Market Racist [View article]
    Clive,

    Good Comment. No one has success without trade entry and exit success. I think he pretty much fits into the category of the first paragraph - as do we all.
    Sep 15, 2012. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Thermometer Points To Further Gains [View article]
    The statements below reflect your opinion and nothing in the charts above. We currently are at a level where we should get a 5-7% correction and then run up until the first of the year. There we will get at least a 50% correction if not more. It would not surprise me to see the dollar in the mid-nineties by mid summer. If I could I would show you some meaningful charts here.


    "It's difficult if not impossible for equities to meaningfully retreat without stress on corporate borrowers." and
    "we think the sheer unattractiveness of bonds makes stocks an asset class of choice." and
    "Our thesis remains that the incremental dollar has begun and will continue to move into commodities creating a commodities feedback loop similar to the 1999-2000 and 2007-2008 period."
    Sep 15, 2012. 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The odds of additional Fed stimulus have risen to 99%, according to indicators tracked by Citigroup. Fingers in the wind, bond strategists have reduced their end-of-year 10-year Treasury yield forecast to 1.65% from 1.9% a month ago, perhaps forgetting past bouts of QE have sent yields higher, not lower. [View news story]
    To think that there will be stimulus with the market this high is absurd.
    Lip service has worked for so many previous occasions why not again?
    Sep 10, 2012. 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Insider Sells Filed On September 7 [View article]
    If you want to look up some real insider sales try Google. There must be &400-500 million sold in th elast few months.
    Sep 8, 2012. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Buy Homebuilders [View article]
    I suppose this could go on but none of your reasoning is totally valid. I know a walk away with 4 kids who moved in to a much better school system and consequently more academic minded friends. So that part comes down to preferences.

    Then you talk of appreciation. You must have a time frame when mentioning appreciation and along with that currency depreciation considerations. I do not believe that the real estate appreciation will break even with the depreciation that's coming, but that also has a time frame to consider.

    This economic crises is just getting a foot hold. Unemployment will be high for years. I read somewhere that there are fewer people working now than there was in the early 2000's and it is a growing problem. Retirees are starting to suffer, especially the ones whose pension plans are going bust or those that are reducing benefits.

    It could be that foreign ownership will increase next year as the Euro bottoms against the dollar and begins a huge appreciation run. But there are other things that will make the country unattractive such as the civil constraints of new laws that seem to increase daily. We will see.

    Below I have copied some of Mish's column from just this morning - if it will copy and it lends credence to what Harry Dent says; that it will likely be 2023 before a real recovery begins. That is when the next generation of buying adults matures and begins families and consequently the purchases that include shelter. But remember my point is alternative investments that are available and not the virtues of home ownership. There are people investing in real estate as if it will have a second bubble.

    MIsh:

    Baby Boomers and Strategic Defaults - a Demographic Study: Why Did People Walk Away? Did They Struggle With Morality? Would they Recommend Walking Away to Others?

    Posted: 06 Sep 2012 11:52 PM PDT

    Jon Maddux, CEO of You Walk Away, sent me a slide show of their recent Baby Boomer Strategic Default Survey.

    I asked Jon to post it online so others could see the graphs. Here is an excerpt of the study.

    Survey study of YouWalkAway Clients in Relation to Retirement & Foreclosure

    Baby boomers, generally considered those born between 1946 and 1964, face a myriad of issues as the larger-than-average generation ages. The cohort that demanded an increase in the production of consumer goods – homes included – is now hitting retirement age. This means fixed incomes and reduction in living space requirements. While this is to be expected for anyone hitting the retirement milestone, this has been an especially difficult transition for the boomers due to the reduction in value of dream homes purchased at the peak of the market to house their entire families. Facing high mortgage payments, increased maintenance, and a reduction in income, many of the boomers are choosing to walk away. Many others claim to have no choice.

    Compared with their younger counterparts, baby boomers are generally more likely to have depleted their savings, retirement and other accounts prior to making a decision to strategically default, leaving them with little to no safety net keeping them above the poverty line during what should be their golden years. Many of the clients that You Walk Away works with on a daily basis are in their late 50s or 60s and during a time when they should be planning for a retirement of leisure and relaxation, they are instead consumed with debt, continued unemployment, and a looming fixed income.

    You Walk Away Demographics


    Key Findings


    48% depleted a good portion or all of their savings prior to making a decision to walk away.
    68% cited property values as the key reason for walking away. Only 5% cited health issues and fewer still (4%) cited loss of income.
    53% said they would have walked away if they were 20 years younger while 23% said they would not have. The remaining 24% said the question was not applicable (they were not old enough to have a house).
    30% said retirement was a factor in their decision.
    22% made the mistake of tapping retirement accounts before walking away and another 16% considered doing so but decided against it. 63% never considered it.
    88% readily admitted they were "strategic defaulters". 12% said they were not. This result is consistent with the 9% citing health or loss of income as reasons for walking away.
    75% struggled with the morality of walking away. 25% did not.
    97% said they would recommend walking away to family members if they were in the same situation.

    That last bullet point is an indication that having walked away, the struggle over morality quickly ended, most likely in relief.

    Note the whopping 88% who admit they were "strategic defaulters". Banks never expected that.

    I believe bank CEOs knew full well home prices would sink (not necessarily crash as I expected) but the lenders did not care because of their originate to securitize model. Of the loans that banks kept, the bankers probably hoped to make debt slaves for life.

    Regardless of what the banks thought, the results were not pretty, either for the banks or those trapped. Moreover, a massive debt overhang still remains and the pending foreclosure pool is mammoth.

    In case you missed it, please consider Foreclosure Stats From You Walk Away.

    Housing will be impaired for the rest of the decade even if the bottom in price is close at hand.

    Mike "Mish" Shedlock
    http://bit.ly/9om8t8
    Sep 8, 2012. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Buy Homebuilders [View article]
    When the Fed stepped in to back home mortgages it was so that people would stay put and be a ready work force for corporate interests. I was not because of the governments interest in the peoples well being. Home ownership is highly over rated and should only be considered from a financial stand point. But if home ownership makes people feel all warm inside so be it.

    The thing about renting is your ability to be mobile. The days of job security are long gone and home ownership is an anchor.
    Sep 7, 2012. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Buy Homebuilders [View article]
    Those reasons are valid but the growing population will enjoy an overbuilt situation.

    The local demands will be there but the prices will be soft although I acknowledge rises from at time. The short sales are being withheld from the market. I have been watching this closely on the west coast of Florida from Tampa to Naples. They tried arbitrarily to raise prices back in March and April claiming a reduced inventory and those prices are now coming back down. Their prime season this spring will be met with a tanking market.
    While you claim that single family homes as still being desired you should read about Transportation Oriented Development (TOD).

    In the end if you had a market that was even mediocre why would you buy real estate when you could simply buy in at much lower price point in the DOW next year and enjoy the dividend along with capital gains and not have the risk of duration and a turbulent market.

    Real estate makes no sense as an investment.
    Sep 6, 2012. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can China Take Ford to $12? [View article]
    EURO to $1.12
    Sep 5, 2012. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD: Is 1.35 Plausible? [View article]
    I am expecting a retrace possibly as low as $1.23-1.22 and then take the long trade. $1.30 looks pretty good but you will have to monitor the trade as it could go somewhat higher but there is a lot of resistance at $1.30.
    Sep 3, 2012. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Buy Homebuilders [View article]
    I'll go along with J457

    The XHB might have the potential to get to $38 by the end of 2014 but on this current run they might get $29.

    Why would anyone want to own a home building stock? Why?
    Sep 1, 2012. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Money Dies': Moderation The Key To Money Printing [View article]
    "such as the Orthodontics" I have no idea where that came from in my response.
    Sep 1, 2012. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Money Dies': Moderation The Key To Money Printing [View article]
    You can not read Ferguson's book in isolation. You must also read about Schaacht his finance minister as well as the London bankers of the time. Here is a brief article about him (http://bit.ly/NEbyGu) but is by no means all inclusive.

    At some points in the reading of all of this you can't help but wonder if Hitler was not sought out by the bankers and industrialists, of which many are still thriving today,for the specific purpose of an attempt to dismantle the great Jewish banking cartel such as the Orthodontics who claim that they can trace their lineage back through the money changers in the temple to Nimrod. Could this be the source of that Nazi hatred for The Jews? Sometimes I wonder if this financial war is not still being waged today only now we have a third entity in Wall St. who in the end I believe have a double cross in mind for their long time London banker friends. I digress.

    Anyway Ferguson's book is a blueprint for what is currently going on and the point that I will reach agreement with you is that I do not think that the end will play out the same.

    We will have to wait and see if the double cross works.
    Sep 1, 2012. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can China Take Ford to $12? [View article]
    I think Ford is going below $5 but I think it has a huge upside - much past twelve dollars in the next few years.
    Aug 31, 2012. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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