je

In Defense of Meredith Whitney

The bottom in housing and consumer credit is a long way off. When people talk of the bottom it is as if they are expecting a rebound and demand out of nowhere.

The bottom is a murky place where housing, unemployment, and consumer credit will languish for some time.

Why the Anemic Market Action?

What is a VWAP?

Spotlight on the Sharpe Ratio: Part II

Hi Kris,
While MPT seemed very relevant to the "growing market" of the last few years and is undoubtedly an exciting numerical exercise, do you really think it is relevant today.

We are in a bear market for sure with banking problems through 2012, also a certainty, don't you think it is more prudent at this time to discuss the matters of events that will turn the market up or down.

Right now we appear to be near the start of a rapid leg down. We could go on up in the DOW prior to 10116 without breaking this pattern of downward expectations. I really appreciate your intelligence and maybe I am wrong but your portfolio analysis just seems like instruction for another time.

I would like to ask you, because I trust your analysis as an unbiased scientist, the probability of this being a true rally and not the Fed leading a pseudo-recovery in this financial warfare with the rest of the world.

Right now they are fighting rising interest rates which calls for a correction, not only to reduce rates but also to lower the market to pick up new money to continue the rally.

Robert Prechter says the rally is over and we are beginning our trip down to at least as low as March and eventually lower but although I too think we are going there, I am not so sure it will occur right now. Maybe (and this is where your excellence would be greatly appreciated) he is right under normal market circumstances but these are days of desperation and anything but normal and I truly believe that you could help if you would care to stick your neck out and do so by looking at the internals in such a way that the rest of us can not.

A lot of Prechters analysis hinges on investor sentiment (emotion), which if the PPT and the liquidity provided to the banks can control, as I suspicion they might. By these wild market swings - like an evangelical does with raising and lowering emotions before passing the offering plates-They can systematically control investor sentiment. And when they arrive around the 8800 level(where ever you consider the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders to be), the investor sentiment having been finessed to a low to a level that could enable a rally that could have a blow off top pretty quickly.(That head and shoulders pattern that I did comes in around 11,263 in the DOW)

Now you throw all of that in with the fact of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts which predict profit taking prior to the new year because of the fear of taxes being made retroactive to the beginning of 2010 and the possibility of selling off the market or could they - the PPG, Banks, Goldmans High frequency trading, etc - continue the market rebound.

Some of the evidence could be with how much money was out of the market and how much of that has returned and does it match market levels.

I just simply question the validity of the level of this rally being truly investor oriented and I think you have powerful insight to the likelihood of these things that I suspicion.
There are so many wave patterns that are incomplete at this point and they vote for a continued rally after a substantial correction.

I read that pattern failures are up to 25% recently compared to 10% in the 90's and we do not know the influence of high frequency trading on the statistics of pattern successes and failures, but we are dealing with probabilities and that is your game.

What is the probability of my suspicions being correct about the Fed leading the rally and this currently just being a correction and not the top as Prechter says and if there is investor selling prior to years end will the Fed still be able to lead the rally higher into January?

Will you help a fellow out?
je

Market Moving Closer to Its First Significant Pullback Since Last Spring

Thanks for the excellent commentary.

Robert Precter has already called it a top.

If this is a substantial correction, what internal signal would you use to indicate that this a correction and not the continuation of the bear market just yet. Such as what would the sentiment have to drop too or other?

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

I did a chart like this in 2006 and it has been scary to watch because it has been accurate beyond my expectations. I have property going back to 1992 prices and that is a 'fer piece from here.

The responses in this article tells you that there are far too many bulls for the bottom to be in. Maybe in 2014 you should rerun the article.

3 Promising Gold Stocks

I am a former subscriber to Dr. Leeb and he is a true analyst. I do think he could use some technical analysis to improve his timing, but he provides good information.

Shining a Light on Solar Opportunities

The cost argument is just not accurate unless you try to adjust for price increases by the utilities.

I have read that AEP is raising the rates 15% a year for the next three years for a 52% increase. And without a doubt the carbon tax and fuel surcharges will come in to play.

All things considered, including the cost of solar trending down and efficiencies going up, solar is a today thing. The largest obstacle is initial cost and the problem of mobility of the home owner not staying in the home long enough to benefit.

Four Major Developments Gold Investors Should Watch

"I anticipate that this psychologically-important level will turn from resistance into support as gold makes new highs towards the end of 2009"

Not yet.
It will go below 850 one more time before the next advance

Sigma Designs: Assessing Its Potential for Renewed Growth

Wait until mid oct for your buy-sell at 22

Demand for 'Moly' Can Only Rise

Wait for a pull back to at or below 32.
It should be good to 55 before ill winds blow.

Solar Is Gaining Momentum: Will the U.S. Be Left in the Dark?

xsunx had a good message on their website about % gains in the US

What Lies Behind the CFTC's Revocation of Exemptions in Agriculture Position Limits?

Socrateazz is on the right track.

I have said for so,me time now that farms are next. Our leaders have methodically taken over housing, banking, autos, and airlines are there for the taking. So farms are next. When the price is low enough, directly or indirectly Goldman, JP Morgan or other vermin will take over the newly equipped farms.
Price and wage controls are not far off making plenty of room for the government to profit on export tax from grains.

This is a crisis of design.

51.68% in 165 Days

51% depends on where you measure it from. We are at the 38% retracement from the Oct '07 high.

From a historical perspective all you can really say is that yes we do have rallies in a bear market. This rally could go higher than any one has imagined with all of the intervention that is occuring.

We are just entering the B wave down and their is another C wave up. If I am correct we will see between 10,400 and 11,250 before we are done and that will happen before thanksgiving.

Why Today's Stock Markets Are All About Confidence and Gullibility

I think Moon Kil Woong has the right focus. As long as the thieves have access to the vault the theft will continue and they need the market rising to give people confidence that the stimulus is working to pull that off.

Commodity Based Currencies: Long Term Prospects Are Bright

When the market sell off occurs later this fall the dollar will rally. This will be a post 5th wave correction as well. When that peaks then will be the time to enter long term alternatives to the dollar.