je's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/52095/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175272-case-shiller-home-prices-continue-to-rise?source=feed#comment-778326 778326 Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:43:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173961-in-defense-of-meredith-whitney?source=feed#comment-765010 765010
The bottom is a murky place where housing, unemployment, and consumer credit will languish for some time.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 08:05:55 -0500
The bottom is a murky place where housing, unemployment, and consumer credit will languish for some time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172951-why-the-anemic-market-action?source=feed#comment-756782 756782 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:24:28 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171994-spotlight-on-the-sharpe-ratio-part-ii?source=feed#comment-750770 750770 While MPT seemed very relevant to the "growing market" of the last few years and is undoubtedly an exciting numerical exercise, do you really think it is relevant today.

We are in a bear market for sure with banking problems through 2012, also a certainty, don't you think it is more prudent at this time to discuss the matters of events that will turn the market up or down.

Right now we appear to be near the start of a rapid leg down. We could go on up in the DOW prior to 10116 without breaking this pattern of downward expectations. I really appreciate your intelligence and maybe I am wrong but your portfolio analysis just seems like instruction for another time.

I would like to ask you, because I trust your analysis as an unbiased scientist, the probability of this being a true rally and not the Fed leading a pseudo-recovery in this financial warfare with the rest of the world.

Right now they are fighting rising interest rates which calls for a correction, not only to reduce rates but also to lower the market to pick up new money to continue the rally.

Robert Prechter says the rally is over and we are beginning our trip down to at least as low as March and eventually lower but although I too think we are going there, I am not so sure it will occur right now. Maybe (and this is where your excellence would be greatly appreciated) he is right under normal market circumstances but these are days of desperation and anything but normal and I truly believe that you could help if you would care to stick your neck out and do so by looking at the internals in such a way that the rest of us can not.

A lot of Prechters analysis hinges on investor sentiment (emotion), which if the PPT and the liquidity provided to the banks can control, as I suspicion they might. By these wild market swings - like an evangelical does with raising and lowering emotions before passing the offering plates-They can systematically control investor sentiment. And when they arrive around the 8800 level(where ever you consider the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders to be), the investor sentiment having been finessed to a low to a level that could enable a rally that could have a blow off top pretty quickly.(That head and shoulders pattern that I did comes in around 11,263 in the DOW)

Now you throw all of that in with the fact of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts which predict profit taking prior to the new year because of the fear of taxes being made retroactive to the beginning of 2010 and the possibility of selling off the market or could they - the PPG, Banks, Goldmans High frequency trading, etc - continue the market rebound.

Some of the evidence could be with how much money was out of the market and how much of that has returned and does it match market levels.

I just simply question the validity of the level of this rally being truly investor oriented and I think you have powerful insight to the likelihood of these things that I suspicion.
There are so many wave patterns that are incomplete at this point and they vote for a continued rally after a substantial correction.

I read that pattern failures are up to 25% recently compared to 10% in the 90's and we do not know the influence of high frequency trading on the statistics of pattern successes and failures, but we are dealing with probabilities and that is your game.

What is the probability of my suspicions being correct about the Fed leading the rally and this currently just being a correction and not the top as Prechter says and if there is investor selling prior to years end will the Fed still be able to lead the rally higher into January?

Will you help a fellow out?
je]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 10:59:43 -0500 While MPT seemed very relevant to the "growing market" of the last few years and is undoubtedly an exciting numerical exercise, do you really think it is relevant today.

We are in a bear market for sure with banking problems through 2012, also a certainty, don't you think it is more prudent at this time to discuss the matters of events that will turn the market up or down.

Right now we appear to be near the start of a rapid leg down. We could go on up in the DOW prior to 10116 without breaking this pattern of downward expectations. I really appreciate your intelligence and maybe I am wrong but your portfolio analysis just seems like instruction for another time.

I would like to ask you, because I trust your analysis as an unbiased scientist, the probability of this being a true rally and not the Fed leading a pseudo-recovery in this financial warfare with the rest of the world.

Right now they are fighting rising interest rates which calls for a correction, not only to reduce rates but also to lower the market to pick up new money to continue the rally.

Robert Prechter says the rally is over and we are beginning our trip down to at least as low as March and eventually lower but although I too think we are going there, I am not so sure it will occur right now. Maybe (and this is where your excellence would be greatly appreciated) he is right under normal market circumstances but these are days of desperation and anything but normal and I truly believe that you could help if you would care to stick your neck out and do so by looking at the internals in such a way that the rest of us can not.

A lot of Prechters analysis hinges on investor sentiment (emotion), which if the PPT and the liquidity provided to the banks can control, as I suspicion they might. By these wild market swings - like an evangelical does with raising and lowering emotions before passing the offering plates-They can systematically control investor sentiment. And when they arrive around the 8800 level(where ever you consider the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders to be), the investor sentiment having been finessed to a low to a level that could enable a rally that could have a blow off top pretty quickly.(That head and shoulders pattern that I did comes in around 11,263 in the DOW)

Now you throw all of that in with the fact of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts which predict profit taking prior to the new year because of the fear of taxes being made retroactive to the beginning of 2010 and the possibility of selling off the market or could they - the PPG, Banks, Goldmans High frequency trading, etc - continue the market rebound.

Some of the evidence could be with how much money was out of the market and how much of that has returned and does it match market levels.

I just simply question the validity of the level of this rally being truly investor oriented and I think you have powerful insight to the likelihood of these things that I suspicion.
There are so many wave patterns that are incomplete at this point and they vote for a continued rally after a substantial correction.

I read that pattern failures are up to 25% recently compared to 10% in the 90's and we do not know the influence of high frequency trading on the statistics of pattern successes and failures, but we are dealing with probabilities and that is your game.

What is the probability of my suspicions being correct about the Fed leading the rally and this currently just being a correction and not the top as Prechter says and if there is investor selling prior to years end will the Fed still be able to lead the rally higher into January?

Will you help a fellow out?
je]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171132-market-moving-closer-to-its-first-significant-pullback-since-last-spring?source=feed#comment-746112 746112
Robert Precter has already called it a top.

If this is a substantial correction, what internal signal would you use to indicate that this a correction and not the continuation of the bear market just yet. Such as what would the sentiment have to drop too or other?]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 09:13:26 -0500
Robert Precter has already called it a top.

If this is a substantial correction, what internal signal would you use to indicate that this a correction and not the continuation of the bear market just yet. Such as what would the sentiment have to drop too or other?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170526-property-values-set-to-fall-43-from-current-depressed-levels?source=feed#comment-742014 742014
The responses in this article tells you that there are far too many bulls for the bottom to be in. Maybe in 2014 you should rerun the article.]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 08:33:00 -0500
The responses in this article tells you that there are far too many bulls for the bottom to be in. Maybe in 2014 you should rerun the article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166068-3-promising-gold-stocks?source=feed#comment-714082 714082 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:37:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164546-shining-a-light-on-solar-opportunities?source=feed#comment-701328 701328
I have read that AEP is raising the rates 15% a year for the next three years for a 52% increase. And without a doubt the carbon tax and fuel surcharges will come in to play.

All things considered, including the cost of solar trending down and efficiencies going up, solar is a today thing. The largest obstacle is initial cost and the problem of mobility of the home owner not staying in the home long enough to benefit.]]> Sat, 03 Oct 2009 10:35:36 -0400
I have read that AEP is raising the rates 15% a year for the next three years for a 52% increase. And without a doubt the carbon tax and fuel surcharges will come in to play.

All things considered, including the cost of solar trending down and efficiencies going up, solar is a today thing. The largest obstacle is initial cost and the problem of mobility of the home owner not staying in the home long enough to benefit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161487-four-major-developments-gold-investors-should-watch?source=feed#comment-677142 677142
Not yet.
It will go below 850 one more time before the next advance
]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 08:53:21 -0400
Not yet.
It will go below 850 one more time before the next advance
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161436-sigma-designs-assessing-its-potential-for-renewed-growth?source=feed#comment-677119 677119 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 08:44:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161548-demand-for-moly-can-only-rise?source=feed#comment-677103 677103 It should be good to 55 before ill winds blow.]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 08:36:08 -0400 It should be good to 55 before ill winds blow.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160801-solar-is-gaining-momentum-will-the-u-s-be-left-in-the-dark?source=feed#comment-670040 670040 Thu, 10 Sep 2009 09:04:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158081-what-lies-behind-the-cftc-s-revocation-of-exemptions-in-agriculture-position-limits?source=feed#comment-645024 645024
I have said for so,me time now that farms are next. Our leaders have methodically taken over housing, banking, autos, and airlines are there for the taking. So farms are next. When the price is low enough, directly or indirectly Goldman, JP Morgan or other vermin will take over the newly equipped farms.
Price and wage controls are not far off making plenty of room for the government to profit on export tax from grains.

This is a crisis of design.]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 09:25:25 -0400
I have said for so,me time now that farms are next. Our leaders have methodically taken over housing, banking, autos, and airlines are there for the taking. So farms are next. When the price is low enough, directly or indirectly Goldman, JP Morgan or other vermin will take over the newly equipped farms.
Price and wage controls are not far off making plenty of room for the government to profit on export tax from grains.

This is a crisis of design.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157644-51-68-in-165-days?source=feed#comment-640832 640832
From a historical perspective all you can really say is that yes we do have rallies in a bear market. This rally could go higher than any one has imagined with all of the intervention that is occuring.

We are just entering the B wave down and their is another C wave up. If I am correct we will see between 10,400 and 11,250 before we are done and that will happen before thanksgiving.]]> Sat, 22 Aug 2009 08:52:04 -0400
From a historical perspective all you can really say is that yes we do have rallies in a bear market. This rally could go higher than any one has imagined with all of the intervention that is occuring.

We are just entering the B wave down and their is another C wave up. If I am correct we will see between 10,400 and 11,250 before we are done and that will happen before thanksgiving.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155276-why-today-s-stock-markets-are-all-about-confidence-and-gullibility?source=feed#comment-624526 624526 Tue, 11 Aug 2009 08:19:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154324-commodity-based-currencies-long-term-prospects-are-bright?source=feed#comment-619419 619419 Fri, 07 Aug 2009 08:51:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153547-online-travel-companies-good-places-to-book-some-profits?source=feed#comment-614230 614230 These all look to be following the markets (which I expect top top at 10,400 to11,200) except OWW (looks to top at $4-5)

Tzoo looks to be a good Dec option play if it would pull back to the neck line at about 12.50 with a price target right at $20 from the inverse head and shoulders.

That isn't the best option play that I have found though - That is YGE which is currently at $13.86 with a target of $32. ]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 08:34:30 -0400 These all look to be following the markets (which I expect top top at 10,400 to11,200) except OWW (looks to top at $4-5)

Tzoo looks to be a good Dec option play if it would pull back to the neck line at about 12.50 with a price target right at $20 from the inverse head and shoulders.

That isn't the best option play that I have found though - That is YGE which is currently at $13.86 with a target of $32. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152287-fpl-group-and-teva-remain-strong-growth-stocks?source=feed#comment-607866 607866 I respect your work and I am a former subscriber to your letter, but I think you are wrong on both counts. We are in a devasted economy and stocks have much further to fall after this last leg up this fall. No matter how good the numbers, money on the run will not hold up stock prices. If you are looking out to 2020 I think that is just to far out with the crises at hand.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 10:18:04 -0400 I respect your work and I am a former subscriber to your letter, but I think you are wrong on both counts. We are in a devasted economy and stocks have much further to fall after this last leg up this fall. No matter how good the numbers, money on the run will not hold up stock prices. If you are looking out to 2020 I think that is just to far out with the crises at hand.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149645-economics-in-the-dog-house-the-economist?source=feed#comment-594893 594893
They should be in prison stripes and not be ridiculed for poor economic policy. That insults our intelligence.]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 09:28:09 -0400
They should be in prison stripes and not be ridiculed for poor economic policy. That insults our intelligence.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148846-another-lower-high-or-is-this-the-start-of-a-bullish-trend?source=feed#comment-589504 589504 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 15:40:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148846-another-lower-high-or-is-this-the-start-of-a-bullish-trend?source=feed#comment-588899 588899 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 09:44:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148846-another-lower-high-or-is-this-the-start-of-a-bullish-trend?source=feed#comment-588893 588893 The RSI just poked abve 50 so is that a bull indicator or over bought in the context of a down trend. The historgram is decling on the MACD which looks bearish
I think we have an inverted head and shoulders on the hourly charts that have a target of around 8600 which is where the 50% retracement is as well as that same inclining intermediate trend resistance. If it makes it that far it would probably be a low risk short back down to the 8087 level where if it goes through we will probably visit the 7600 region. That is just my take.....]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 09:42:13 -0400 The RSI just poked abve 50 so is that a bull indicator or over bought in the context of a down trend. The historgram is decling on the MACD which looks bearish
I think we have an inverted head and shoulders on the hourly charts that have a target of around 8600 which is where the 50% retracement is as well as that same inclining intermediate trend resistance. If it makes it that far it would probably be a low risk short back down to the 8087 level where if it goes through we will probably visit the 7600 region. That is just my take.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148341-banks-not-letting-owners-of-foreclosed-homes-walk-away?source=feed#comment-585426 585426
They have the courts to try and make them pay but other than that the property is in limbo. The vacancies posed a vandalism and other deterioration problems so leaving the defaulted owner in the house as a free caretaker to the bank and keeping the loss off of their books is all that achieved.

To think that the banks have any power over these people is silly.

Now the IRS is a different story.]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 08:37:00 -0400
They have the courts to try and make them pay but other than that the property is in limbo. The vacancies posed a vandalism and other deterioration problems so leaving the defaulted owner in the house as a free caretaker to the bank and keeping the loss off of their books is all that achieved.

To think that the banks have any power over these people is silly.

Now the IRS is a different story.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147042-s-p-500-quarterly-charts-more-reliable-as-a-leading-economic-indicator?source=feed#comment-575369 575369 Good morning. You know how outspoken I amand I agree with DCB on market manipulation and for good reason besides the greed aspect of it.
For one we nwwd to push the dollar up a little bit at the moment so yes they will let the market correct a bit -maybe as low as 7600 but then they need to protect those pension plans as well as get a little cash for the boyz so the market will rally 10,000? 11,400 but then the party is over and we will likely visit the lower trend line that will take us to 3500 in the next couple of years.
Of course the market is manipulated - how obvious can it be. And they are not stopping here, it is merely a pause.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 09:16:47 -0400 Good morning. You know how outspoken I amand I agree with DCB on market manipulation and for good reason besides the greed aspect of it.
For one we nwwd to push the dollar up a little bit at the moment so yes they will let the market correct a bit -maybe as low as 7600 but then they need to protect those pension plans as well as get a little cash for the boyz so the market will rally 10,000? 11,400 but then the party is over and we will likely visit the lower trend line that will take us to 3500 in the next couple of years.
Of course the market is manipulated - how obvious can it be. And they are not stopping here, it is merely a pause.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146611-unwinding-the-goldman-sachs-myth?source=feed#comment-571319 571319
Goldman, Paulson are guilty as charged. The Congress is guilty by way of association if nothing else.

These crooks are stealing every dime of the bailout money. This has to be the greatest robery in th ehistory of the world and there are dumbasses like you defending them]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:20:34 -0400
Goldman, Paulson are guilty as charged. The Congress is guilty by way of association if nothing else.

These crooks are stealing every dime of the bailout money. This has to be the greatest robery in th ehistory of the world and there are dumbasses like you defending them]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145516-23-high-quality-high-dividend-stocks?source=feed#comment-563515 563515 I have been watching APL -I'm surprised that it does not get much notice. I think it has some down side yet this summer but I like it a lot.]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 10:26:20 -0400 I have been watching APL -I'm surprised that it does not get much notice. I think it has some down side yet this summer but I like it a lot.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143841-why-i-m-restarting-yingli-green-energy?source=feed#comment-552678 552678
Chart a comparison of YGE and the S&P and this is only going to become more profound as we move up in this rally.

With all of the stimulus and "green being the next bubble(howerver brief)YGE will surprise many with just a forward P/E of 13 and less than 33% held by institutions this guy has a lot of room to run.]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 15:56:21 -0400
Chart a comparison of YGE and the S&P and this is only going to become more profound as we move up in this rally.

With all of the stimulus and "green being the next bubble(howerver brief)YGE will surprise many with just a forward P/E of 13 and less than 33% held by institutions this guy has a lot of room to run.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142353-sell-in-may-or-maybe-june-but-don-t-go-away?source=feed#comment-540871 540871 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 13:53:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131374-market-activity-sending-off-bullish-alerts?source=feed#comment-468115 468115
The DOW and S&Pkeepsmakingme think they are on thier tip toes and while the rally seems manufactured there is probably upside until this silliness about housing leveling and the ultra silliness of banks being moneymakers is outed.

The moratorium of no foreclosures has expired and soon the news will be out and we will again look for another temporary bottom until they get used to the news and we get the stimulus rally.

The never ending stimulus will go on and on. They have no choice but to print their way out.]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 07:17:56 -0400
The DOW and S&Pkeepsmakingme think they are on thier tip toes and while the rally seems manufactured there is probably upside until this silliness about housing leveling and the ultra silliness of banks being moneymakers is outed.

The moratorium of no foreclosures has expired and soon the news will be out and we will again look for another temporary bottom until they get used to the news and we get the stimulus rally.

The never ending stimulus will go on and on. They have no choice but to print their way out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128706-nci-is-down-big-does-somebody-know-something?source=feed#comment-447660 447660 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 08:27:24 -0400