Thomas Victor's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/52206/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/138145-outsourcing-grows-as-a-business-strategy?source=feed#comment-508028 508028
Amway is the company that goes around door to door selling cleaning materials. I was thinking - what can Amway do for IBM??

But I agree that we will see increases in outsourcing, I think it will come due to desperation - as demand keeps falling, US companies will do anything to decrease costs ]]> Mon, 18 May 2009 09:04:35 -0400
Amway is the company that goes around door to door selling cleaning materials. I was thinking - what can Amway do for IBM??

But I agree that we will see increases in outsourcing, I think it will come due to desperation - as demand keeps falling, US companies will do anything to decrease costs ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113886-satyam-management-plans-to-stay-unveils-crisis-plan?source=feed#comment-349915 349915
At times when profit growth was 2% he reported 30-40% profit growth allegedly to keep the stock price up so that Satyam wouldn't be the target of hostile takeovers. So the cash reserves just weren't there in the first place.

He did not sell any shares to take advantage of the inflated share price. In fact to keep the operation running he took out huge loans using more than half of his 8% of Satyam shares as collateral. A lot of those shares were sold by the institutions that gave him loans and now he maybe has only 3% of Satyam shares.

Very puzzling.. ]]> Thu, 08 Jan 2009 13:26:46 -0500
At times when profit growth was 2% he reported 30-40% profit growth allegedly to keep the stock price up so that Satyam wouldn't be the target of hostile takeovers. So the cash reserves just weren't there in the first place.

He did not sell any shares to take advantage of the inflated share price. In fact to keep the operation running he took out huge loans using more than half of his 8% of Satyam shares as collateral. A lot of those shares were sold by the institutions that gave him loans and now he maybe has only 3% of Satyam shares.

Very puzzling.. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100570-icici-bank-indian-capitalism-at-its-worst?source=feed#comment-285776 285776 Sun, 19 Oct 2008 16:00:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99951-infosys-shaky?source=feed#comment-283283 283283
They are getting more and more customers and their profit margins are very high. They are able to expand their workforce without lowering quality which is pretty amazing.

Regarding Saas which you regard so highly please look up Larry Ellison's comments last week. He basically ridiculed Saas and Cloud Computing and said no one is making any money on it after all these years of hype except one single company, salesforce.com

"Infosys was looking at the Axon acquisition to help get it out of pure body-shopping and into SaaS" Not at all, how did you get that impression? It was just another attempt to move higher up in the outsourcing food chain. ]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 17:52:37 -0400
They are getting more and more customers and their profit margins are very high. They are able to expand their workforce without lowering quality which is pretty amazing.

Regarding Saas which you regard so highly please look up Larry Ellison's comments last week. He basically ridiculed Saas and Cloud Computing and said no one is making any money on it after all these years of hype except one single company, salesforce.com

"Infosys was looking at the Axon acquisition to help get it out of pure body-shopping and into SaaS" Not at all, how did you get that impression? It was just another attempt to move higher up in the outsourcing food chain. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99892-infosys-traumatized-environment-affords-rare-buying-opportunity?source=feed#comment-283272 283272
You mention "principal risks include the following: U.S. slowdown".

I'm itching to buy INFY but my fear is that the whole world,not just the US is entering a slowdown and we might have a recession for years and years from now. So might be better to wait.

Still, Infosys is doing a great job as usual and in a recession more firms might turn to Infosys to cut cost and still maintain quality. I'm surprised how they have managed to stay so good inspite of having tripled or quadrupled their workforce from a few years ago.

Not getting the AXON acquisition was a bit disappointing. AXON is making a mistake going with HCL for the sake of a a few percentage points in price.

Today 10/15 INFY is back down to $25 - if it ever gets back to it's last Friday low of $22 I won't be able to resist.

]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 17:37:37 -0400
You mention "principal risks include the following: U.S. slowdown".

I'm itching to buy INFY but my fear is that the whole world,not just the US is entering a slowdown and we might have a recession for years and years from now. So might be better to wait.

Still, Infosys is doing a great job as usual and in a recession more firms might turn to Infosys to cut cost and still maintain quality. I'm surprised how they have managed to stay so good inspite of having tripled or quadrupled their workforce from a few years ago.

Not getting the AXON acquisition was a bit disappointing. AXON is making a mistake going with HCL for the sake of a a few percentage points in price.

Today 10/15 INFY is back down to $25 - if it ever gets back to it's last Friday low of $22 I won't be able to resist.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97183-indian-it-stocks-time-to-bail?source=feed#comment-263869 263869
That would have been an appropriate title some time ago when it's price was higher. But now it is at a 52 week low and it seemed like a good buying opportunity so I took the plunge.]]> Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:29:02 -0400
That would have been an appropriate title some time ago when it's price was higher. But now it is at a 52 week low and it seemed like a good buying opportunity so I took the plunge.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80380-infosys-innovation-and-the-changing-face-of-it?source=feed#comment-180467 180467
Lots of software patents are just commonsense and not worth anything.

As far as Infosys getting more into IP (intellectual property) goes, I'm more optimistic about INFY's mega banking software product 'Finacle'

May 28th: "BBVA, one of the top 15 banks in the world, will implement Finacle Universal Banking Solution.....As a strategic imperative, the bank decided to replace legacy solutions with a leading world-class banking solution."

That sounds very promising - there must be a lot of big banks around the world that need that kind of leap from old banking systems to state of the art systems.. and I'veseen a LOT of expensive failures - success at BBVA could be the start of something really big for Finacle. ]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 13:18:17 -0400
Lots of software patents are just commonsense and not worth anything.

As far as Infosys getting more into IP (intellectual property) goes, I'm more optimistic about INFY's mega banking software product 'Finacle'

May 28th: "BBVA, one of the top 15 banks in the world, will implement Finacle Universal Banking Solution.....As a strategic imperative, the bank decided to replace legacy solutions with a leading world-class banking solution."

That sounds very promising - there must be a lot of big banks around the world that need that kind of leap from old banking systems to state of the art systems.. and I'veseen a LOT of expensive failures - success at BBVA could be the start of something really big for Finacle. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79269-thursday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-175904 175904
I'm holding RSX and EEB right now, wondering if I should put some of that into EWZ.

Thanks! ]]> Thu, 29 May 2008 09:53:55 -0400
I'm holding RSX and EEB right now, wondering if I should put some of that into EWZ.

Thanks! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60069-infosys-in-light-of-recession-fears?source=feed#comment-110566 110566
And please - stop the continued use of the term 'body shopping' with reference to Infosys!

Thanks! ]]> Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:13:44 -0500
And please - stop the continued use of the term 'body shopping' with reference to Infosys!

Thanks! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59996-infosys-sees-some-customers-delaying-finalizing-2008-it-budgets?source=feed#comment-110329 110329 Mon, 14 Jan 2008 16:35:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59994-tech-sector-spooky-nasdaq-down-14-7-since-halloween-peak?source=feed#comment-110325 110325 Mon, 14 Jan 2008 16:30:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/53415-cognizants-growth-will-come-from-europe?source=feed#comment-101337 101337 ]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2007 14:44:16 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/51514-infosys-needs-to-diversify-out-of-body-shopping?source=feed#comment-100766 100766
But agree with Sramana that they should move higher up the food chain. They ARE trying hard to be Managemant Consultants similar to McKinsey, Accenture etc. - but besides Finacle, which they've had for ages, why aren't they trying to develop other software products?

Body shopping is a fairly specialised term. A company needs X programmers who say, know Java,for a one year project. There are many company's in India who can supply these programmers. But those companies are not involved with coming up any of the following:

1) Deciding that the company needed the project in the first place
2) High Level IT Design and lower level detailed specifications

The US company itself has done items 1 and 2 finds it needs 15 programmers for this project but only has 12 employees free so it contracts for 3 more 'bodies' from India. Say $25/hour for someone in India, more if they want the programmers to be here in the US.

Infosys pretty much takes on only projects where it does item 2 completely or does item 2 in collaboration with the US company. And it is trying to get to do item 1 also via their ManagementConsulting whih right now is running ata loss.

Usually there are 2 phases for which they might be paid separately, one to come up with Design and Detailed Specs, then to actually program test and go-live.

The only situation where INFY would do body shopping is to get a foothold in the US Company - i.e. the 3 programmers they sent do so well that they can then persuade the Company to let INFY do 100% of the next IT project.

My US Health Care company is spending a HUGE amount of money on a 'do it all' health care package - provides the doctors with everything they need for medical care - patient chart, schedule display, prescription ordering etc etc. PLUS handles the business side such as billing.

From what I've seen, if INFY made an initial investment to study Health Care requirements they could do MUCH better than the software company we have now - come up with a better system, one that is designed to 'scale up', does what the doctors need, does billing etc.- and to maintain and enhance the system.

For the amount of money we're paying we would be happy to go with a better package and better support but there is no alternative on the horizon!
]]> Fri, 02 Nov 2007 18:11:39 -0400
But agree with Sramana that they should move higher up the food chain. They ARE trying hard to be Managemant Consultants similar to McKinsey, Accenture etc. - but besides Finacle, which they've had for ages, why aren't they trying to develop other software products?

Body shopping is a fairly specialised term. A company needs X programmers who say, know Java,for a one year project. There are many company's in India who can supply these programmers. But those companies are not involved with coming up any of the following:

1) Deciding that the company needed the project in the first place
2) High Level IT Design and lower level detailed specifications

The US company itself has done items 1 and 2 finds it needs 15 programmers for this project but only has 12 employees free so it contracts for 3 more 'bodies' from India. Say $25/hour for someone in India, more if they want the programmers to be here in the US.

Infosys pretty much takes on only projects where it does item 2 completely or does item 2 in collaboration with the US company. And it is trying to get to do item 1 also via their ManagementConsulting whih right now is running ata loss.

Usually there are 2 phases for which they might be paid separately, one to come up with Design and Detailed Specs, then to actually program test and go-live.

The only situation where INFY would do body shopping is to get a foothold in the US Company - i.e. the 3 programmers they sent do so well that they can then persuade the Company to let INFY do 100% of the next IT project.

My US Health Care company is spending a HUGE amount of money on a 'do it all' health care package - provides the doctors with everything they need for medical care - patient chart, schedule display, prescription ordering etc etc. PLUS handles the business side such as billing.

From what I've seen, if INFY made an initial investment to study Health Care requirements they could do MUCH better than the software company we have now - come up with a better system, one that is designed to 'scale up', does what the doctors need, does billing etc.- and to maintain and enhance the system.

For the amount of money we're paying we would be happy to go with a better package and better support but there is no alternative on the horizon!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/50289-indian-stock-plunge-a-yearly-call?source=feed#comment-99228 99228 From Chidambaram's talk in NYC, more than 50% is via PNs which allow the invester to remain anonymous.

Do you happen to know WHY such huge amounts are coming in via PNs? Why do these investers want to remain anonymous? Is this 'black money', maybe from illegal drug profits?

Thanks!
Thomas ]]> Fri, 19 Oct 2007 20:32:05 -0400 From Chidambaram's talk in NYC, more than 50% is via PNs which allow the invester to remain anonymous.

Do you happen to know WHY such huge amounts are coming in via PNs? Why do these investers want to remain anonymous? Is this 'black money', maybe from illegal drug profits?

Thanks!
Thomas ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/49926-rising-rupee-employment-delays-won-t-hinder-infosys?source=feed#comment-98868 98868
So I was thinking I should invest in non-software ADRs,maybe HDFC and ICICI banks! Good Lord! HDB is down more than 11% today (Oct 16) IBN down over 7% plus all software ADRs are also down!!

Any clues as to what is going on? ]]> Tue, 16 Oct 2007 15:50:14 -0400
So I was thinking I should invest in non-software ADRs,maybe HDFC and ICICI banks! Good Lord! HDB is down more than 11% today (Oct 16) IBN down over 7% plus all software ADRs are also down!!

Any clues as to what is going on? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40883-infosys-q1-results-gains-from-rupee-s-strength?source=feed#comment-91109 91109
in.biz.yahoo.com/07071...

Nasdaq-listed Infosys was looking for acquisitions in non-English speaking markets like Germany, France and Japan to accelerate market penetration and get access to new technology services, he said.]]> Fri, 13 Jul 2007 08:39:17 -0400
in.biz.yahoo.com/07071...

Nasdaq-listed Infosys was looking for acquisitions in non-English speaking markets like Germany, France and Japan to accelerate market penetration and get access to new technology services, he said.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40883-infosys-q1-results-gains-from-rupee-s-strength?source=feed#comment-91103 91103 Interesting article - another great quarter from Infosys I think but there is the Rising Rupee factor etc. and as you mention now the 'other income' issue.

We'd discussed previously the difficulties of an Indian IT company being able to break into the the top levels of Management Consulting in the US & Europe and being able to compete with McKinsey, Deloitte, Accenture IBM etc.

But now we're hearing talk of acquiistion/merger with CapGemini or SmartStream Technologies.

Infosys plus Capgemini will be a full blown challenge to Accenture and IBM, VERY EXCITING, if the CapGemini and Infy people can work together productively and amicably.

SmartStream seems to be a Banking specialty - would enable INFY to dominate even in the Finance sector and maybe push more sales of it's banking software product Finacle.

This is beginning to sound like the Mittal Steel plus Arcelor and the Corus plus Tata Steel stories! I think Infosys has to take the plunge otherwise the 30 percent plus yearly growth rate will be difficult to maintain.

Any thoughts on the above?

Also what happened to the CEO who came after Narayanamurthy, Nandan M. Nilekani? I'm a bit surprised he has ben replaced as CEO/MD so soon. Any problems I wonder? Remember Phaneesh the US executive, he had to quit following sexual harassment charges.

Thomas]]> Fri, 13 Jul 2007 05:29:57 -0400 Interesting article - another great quarter from Infosys I think but there is the Rising Rupee factor etc. and as you mention now the 'other income' issue.

We'd discussed previously the difficulties of an Indian IT company being able to break into the the top levels of Management Consulting in the US & Europe and being able to compete with McKinsey, Deloitte, Accenture IBM etc.

But now we're hearing talk of acquiistion/merger with CapGemini or SmartStream Technologies.

Infosys plus Capgemini will be a full blown challenge to Accenture and IBM, VERY EXCITING, if the CapGemini and Infy people can work together productively and amicably.

SmartStream seems to be a Banking specialty - would enable INFY to dominate even in the Finance sector and maybe push more sales of it's banking software product Finacle.

This is beginning to sound like the Mittal Steel plus Arcelor and the Corus plus Tata Steel stories! I think Infosys has to take the plunge otherwise the 30 percent plus yearly growth rate will be difficult to maintain.

Any thoughts on the above?

Also what happened to the CEO who came after Narayanamurthy, Nandan M. Nilekani? I'm a bit surprised he has ben replaced as CEO/MD so soon. Any problems I wonder? Remember Phaneesh the US executive, he had to quit following sexual harassment charges.

Thomas]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/39509-indian-outsourcing-stocks-beware-the-stronger-rupee?source=feed#comment-89842 89842
Dayanand is correct, no way that CTSH is not going to be impacted by rising Indian wages. The key thing is where is the army of the software developers located?

My pick now is ACN.

All of my meagre investment money is in INFY and WIT. Otherwise I would now buy Accenture (ACN). Look at it's P/E ratio. I'm an Indian with a US MBA and currently working in a large California IT shop. I have experience of both the top US mgmt consultants and offshore software companies INFY, HCL & Covansys. Our company has sporadically offshored to those three.

ACN is located at the top of the food chain in this situation. They already have the established elite top level US consultants. Their problem is to rapidly establish a high quality software factory in India, luring away stars from INFY, TCS etc. plus recruiting from campuses.

That seems easier for ACN to do than for, say INFY, to establish a Mgmt Consulting presence in the US, and EU. Similar to Mittal and Tata making deals with Arcelor and Corus who are higher up in the food chain maybe the Indian companies should buy out ACN

Thomas]]> Wed, 27 Jun 2007 18:32:24 -0400
Dayanand is correct, no way that CTSH is not going to be impacted by rising Indian wages. The key thing is where is the army of the software developers located?

My pick now is ACN.

All of my meagre investment money is in INFY and WIT. Otherwise I would now buy Accenture (ACN). Look at it's P/E ratio. I'm an Indian with a US MBA and currently working in a large California IT shop. I have experience of both the top US mgmt consultants and offshore software companies INFY, HCL & Covansys. Our company has sporadically offshored to those three.

ACN is located at the top of the food chain in this situation. They already have the established elite top level US consultants. Their problem is to rapidly establish a high quality software factory in India, luring away stars from INFY, TCS etc. plus recruiting from campuses.

That seems easier for ACN to do than for, say INFY, to establish a Mgmt Consulting presence in the US, and EU. Similar to Mittal and Tata making deals with Arcelor and Corus who are higher up in the food chain maybe the Indian companies should buy out ACN

Thomas]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/38440-infosys-the-relationship-between-net-income-market-cap-and-employees?source=feed#comment-88887 88887
What will differentiate them is ability to steadily win new contracts, keep existing ones and ability to increase prices, I think.

I guess I'm concerned about INFY's drop in 2007 after it had risen steadily to $6o plus - after Feb 20th it has been falling and falling - for a while it looked like it might slide all the way down to $40! However after closing at $47.49 on June 7th, it has rebounded back to last week's close of $53.31. Same story with CTSH.

This rebound seems to be due to INFY making presentations to brokerage houses and I presume, telling them that prior guidance on Earnings and Revenue still held inspite of adverse conditions. From postings on INFY message board, a Citibank analyst has reiterated his recommendations on INFY and CTSH.

There is also a feeling that the offshoring field is breaking up with the big ones - TCS,INFY,CTSH,WIT moving ahead along with IBM and Accenture while the smaller ones - Patni, Covansys etc. are having difficulty getting contracts since the large companies are preferring to go with the big offshorers. Covansys has been bought by CSC and Patni is entertaining buy out offers from private equity firms.

One odd occurrence is that IBM has bagged a ONE BILLION DOLLAR IT DEAL from Bharti Airtel in India!
There is something fishy about that deal - a $1 billion deal in India iself from an Indian company going to IBM and not TCS,INFY or WIT?

I guess things will become clearer beginning of July when INFY, as usual, will be the first to state earning for the quarter and we can see if their growth rate projections have dropped or are holding steady.]]> Mon, 18 Jun 2007 05:02:57 -0400
What will differentiate them is ability to steadily win new contracts, keep existing ones and ability to increase prices, I think.

I guess I'm concerned about INFY's drop in 2007 after it had risen steadily to $6o plus - after Feb 20th it has been falling and falling - for a while it looked like it might slide all the way down to $40! However after closing at $47.49 on June 7th, it has rebounded back to last week's close of $53.31. Same story with CTSH.

This rebound seems to be due to INFY making presentations to brokerage houses and I presume, telling them that prior guidance on Earnings and Revenue still held inspite of adverse conditions. From postings on INFY message board, a Citibank analyst has reiterated his recommendations on INFY and CTSH.

There is also a feeling that the offshoring field is breaking up with the big ones - TCS,INFY,CTSH,WIT moving ahead along with IBM and Accenture while the smaller ones - Patni, Covansys etc. are having difficulty getting contracts since the large companies are preferring to go with the big offshorers. Covansys has been bought by CSC and Patni is entertaining buy out offers from private equity firms.

One odd occurrence is that IBM has bagged a ONE BILLION DOLLAR IT DEAL from Bharti Airtel in India!
There is something fishy about that deal - a $1 billion deal in India iself from an Indian company going to IBM and not TCS,INFY or WIT?

I guess things will become clearer beginning of July when INFY, as usual, will be the first to state earning for the quarter and we can see if their growth rate projections have dropped or are holding steady.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/38440-infosys-the-relationship-between-net-income-market-cap-and-employees?source=feed#comment-88750 88750 Fri, 15 Jun 2007 17:02:56 -0400