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morrisroos66

morrisroos66
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  • American Capital Agency (AGNC) falls 4.2% premarket as the stock goes ex-dividend today. The $1.54 decline thus far is quite a bit bigger than the $1.25 dividend. Secondary offering on the way? [View news story]
    There is a rumor around about a secondary for agnc. But, why would they do that and then have to be trying to buy the same MBS that the Fed is buying. Gary Kain has said that he was preparing for qe3 by buying up the MBS that he thinks the Fed will want from the >2B$ they collected in July's secondary. Doing a secondary now would be trading on the opposite side of what he has discussed. It does not make sense that they would do a secondary now or for a number of months.
    Sep 19 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3, A Prudent Investment Strategy [View article]
    Have you studied the effect of having VXX long in your portfolio vs not having it there? You obviously have not. The continual rollover effects have a very negative impact on this ETF of VIX futures [it is NOT 2x]. This etf is the PERFECT SHORT CANDIDATE to trade in a trend following method as I have outlined in my free online book. Why do you think the extremely liquid etf which VXX is was hard to borrow for shorting just last week before the spike upwards this week [and cavitation downwards of vxx] ? Because it is promoted to individuals by professionals like this author while the professional leaches on WS are shorting it so heavily it is hardly available to the public to short. And this etf has recently been trading 35-75 million shares per day. Do your research before you go long this etf for hedging purposes or any purpose.

    Disclosure: I am heavily short VXX using a Donchian Hi-Lo system for trading with a 80% win frequency and a 2.5:1 W:L ratio; those stats make using a short only VXX trend following system a cash cow. I use TradeStation to optimize the trading system. See my online book mentioned in my profile info if you do not know what trend following with Donchian hi-lo trading involoves.
    Sep 8 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart of the Day: Leading Indicator Waves the Caution Flag [View article]
    Your proposed method had 3 good sell signals in the 90s, but would have caused a miss of the entire 500% gain of the recent bull market. You need to analyse a recommendation like this using an objective approach like buy/sell codes written in TradeStation. Otherwise, one can easily overlook the nasties of a system and when a signal occurs, one has NO IDEA of the liklihood of success of a trade/ investment unless you have thoroughly backtested the data and found an optimal systematic approach that works at least half the time, has wins at least twice as large as the losses and thus it does not kill you with the drawdowns.
    Dec 9 11:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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