That QE taper may end up being a QE expansion as FRBNY President Bill Dudley tells a gathering in Japan the uncertain economic outlook has him unsure if the next move will be up or down. He worries about investor over-reaction to a "normalization" of policy and suggests the FOMC may need to update what it needs to see to move in that direction. Stocks like the "up" talk, the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%) at a fresh session high. [View news story]
The Fed should continue with QE, says St. Louis Fed chief Bullard, as the reaction in financial markets (stocks higher?) proves the purchases have been effective. He says the program should be adjusted (higher or lower) based on incoming economic data. He tosses out negative interest rates as a possible policy (why not), but suggests the effects of such a move would be minor. [View news story]
In other words, the program will be adjusted based on incoming sp500 index.
Stopping asset purchases at once would be too disruptive, says Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher, appearing on CNBC. The hawk instead calls for the program to be tapered, beginning imminently. "We've made people richer ... the question is what have we done for working men and women in this country." [View news story]
And we will see how terrible this could be if the situation Washington entangled in persists.
Silver's (SLV -0.6%) 9% plunge in the first minutes of trading overnight is being linked to hawkish talk from Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari who warned the yen's (FXY +0.7%) fast decline may be hurting the economy. One fails to see the connection but dollar/yen did dive along with silver and Andrew Wilkinson suggests hedge funds short the yen were forced to raise cash by bailing on stale silver longs. [View news story]
It seems to me these Japanese are playing games with their own economy, fortunately our crazy Fed is not so mad.
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
Among all the Fed officials, this guy is the one I dislike the most, always meaningless.
Ben Bernanke may not have overtly mentioned monetary policy during prepared remarks for a commencement address at Bard College Saturday, but he did reference Yogi Berra, and in the process made a statement that those of a cynical persuasion might say could have been pulled not only from the quips of a baseball legend, but from any recent speech by hawkish regional Fed presidents (I, II, III): "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Some would undoubtedly say the Chairman should consider this sage advice when making conjectures about the supposedly benign effects of policy tightening. [View news story]
So it smells QE4Over is inevitable in the near future.
U.S. jobs could return to pre-recession levels by 2014, according to some economists. The latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists, forecasters said they expect employers to add just under 180K jobs a month over the next 12 months, about the same pace as the past two years, but that should pick up as the economy continues to gather steam. For the full year, economists expect 2.4% growth - which is better than the past two years. [View news story]
Financial representatives of the G7 countries came away from an informal two-day gathering hosted by Britain's George Osborne satisfied that Japan's extraordinary monetary policy maneuvers are targeted at vanquishing deflation not exchange rate targeting. Although German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble did mention "the relatively high levels of liquidity" present in the market (the obligatory German nod to conservative monetary policy), U.S. Treasury officials said the "conversation [with Japan] was good." Osborne also noted that when it comes to fiscal policy, "there are more areas of agreement between [the G7] than is commonly assumed." [View news story]
The rumored Hilsenrath "tapering" story - originally expected to come out late Thursday - instead came out after yesterday's market close. It's mostly a summary of what's already known - that Fed officials plan to reduce asset purchases in steps, the timing of which is still being debated. The article leans heavily on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, two well-known hawks (and non-voters on the FOMC this year) who would have already tightened if it was up to them. A number of Fed speakers - including Bernanke - are set to speak next week. [View news story]
The rumored Hilsenrath "tapering" story - originally expected to come out late Thursday - instead came out after yesterday's market close. It's mostly a summary of what's already known - that Fed officials plan to reduce asset purchases in steps, the timing of which is still being debated. The article leans heavily on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, two well-known hawks (and non-voters on the FOMC this year) who would have already tightened if it was up to them. A number of Fed speakers - including Bernanke - are set to speak next week. [View news story]
The rumored Hilsenrath "tapering" story - originally expected to come out late Thursday - instead came out after yesterday's market close. It's mostly a summary of what's already known - that Fed officials plan to reduce asset purchases in steps, the timing of which is still being debated. The article leans heavily on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, two well-known hawks (and non-voters on the FOMC this year) who would have already tightened if it was up to them. A number of Fed speakers - including Bernanke - are set to speak next week. [View news story]
Well, actually this article is nothing more than a reminder, let's see how this crazy overbought market will react to the old news.
Consumer prices rise 2.4% in China during April, up from 2.1% in March and slightly above economists' estimates. Producer prices fell 2.6% during the month, a steeper decline than expected. [View news story]
Very interesting. China's slow down is inevitable if the new leadership does not want to keep ruining this country.
Volatility ETFs Could Face A Short Squeeze [View article]
I agree with you volatility could spike in the short term because of the recent crazy run.. But it is nearly impossible to have a short squeeze on these ETNs, well, without any BIG disasters.. Furthermore, the daily volume turned to be very large since this year which technically makes a squeeze more difficult.
FOMC Announcement: The FOMC is prepared to increase or decrease the pace of its asset purchases (currently $85B/month) depending on what happens on the economic front, particularly the jobs picture. The Committee continues to expect a "highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends." [View news story]
The FOMC is prepared to increase or decrease the pace of its asset purchases
That QE taper may end up being a QE expansion as FRBNY President Bill Dudley tells a gathering in Japan the uncertain economic outlook has him unsure if the next move will be up or down. He worries about investor over-reaction to a "normalization" of policy and suggests the FOMC may need to update what it needs to see to move in that direction. Stocks like the "up" talk, the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%) at a fresh session high. [View news story]
The Fed should continue with QE, says St. Louis Fed chief Bullard, as the reaction in financial markets (stocks higher?) proves the purchases have been effective. He says the program should be adjusted (higher or lower) based on incoming economic data. He tosses out negative interest rates as a possible policy (why not), but suggests the effects of such a move would be minor. [View news story]
Stopping asset purchases at once would be too disruptive, says Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher, appearing on CNBC. The hawk instead calls for the program to be tapered, beginning imminently. "We've made people richer ... the question is what have we done for working men and women in this country." [View news story]
Silver's (SLV -0.6%) 9% plunge in the first minutes of trading overnight is being linked to hawkish talk from Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari who warned the yen's (FXY +0.7%) fast decline may be hurting the economy. One fails to see the connection but dollar/yen did dive along with silver and Andrew Wilkinson suggests hedge funds short the yen were forced to raise cash by bailing on stale silver longs. [View news story]
A Double Bottom For Gold? [View article]
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
Ben Bernanke may not have overtly mentioned monetary policy during prepared remarks for a commencement address at Bard College Saturday, but he did reference Yogi Berra, and in the process made a statement that those of a cynical persuasion might say could have been pulled not only from the quips of a baseball legend, but from any recent speech by hawkish regional Fed presidents (I, II, III): "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Some would undoubtedly say the Chairman should consider this sage advice when making conjectures about the supposedly benign effects of policy tightening. [View news story]
U.S. jobs could return to pre-recession levels by 2014, according to some economists. The latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists, forecasters said they expect employers to add just under 180K jobs a month over the next 12 months, about the same pace as the past two years, but that should pick up as the economy continues to gather steam. For the full year, economists expect 2.4% growth - which is better than the past two years. [View news story]
Financial representatives of the G7 countries came away from an informal two-day gathering hosted by Britain's George Osborne satisfied that Japan's extraordinary monetary policy maneuvers are targeted at vanquishing deflation not exchange rate targeting. Although German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble did mention "the relatively high levels of liquidity" present in the market (the obligatory German nod to conservative monetary policy), U.S. Treasury officials said the "conversation [with Japan] was good." Osborne also noted that when it comes to fiscal policy, "there are more areas of agreement between [the G7] than is commonly assumed." [View news story]
The rumored Hilsenrath "tapering" story - originally expected to come out late Thursday - instead came out after yesterday's market close. It's mostly a summary of what's already known - that Fed officials plan to reduce asset purchases in steps, the timing of which is still being debated. The article leans heavily on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, two well-known hawks (and non-voters on the FOMC this year) who would have already tightened if it was up to them. A number of Fed speakers - including Bernanke - are set to speak next week. [View news story]
The rumored Hilsenrath "tapering" story - originally expected to come out late Thursday - instead came out after yesterday's market close. It's mostly a summary of what's already known - that Fed officials plan to reduce asset purchases in steps, the timing of which is still being debated. The article leans heavily on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, two well-known hawks (and non-voters on the FOMC this year) who would have already tightened if it was up to them. A number of Fed speakers - including Bernanke - are set to speak next week. [View news story]
The rumored Hilsenrath "tapering" story - originally expected to come out late Thursday - instead came out after yesterday's market close. It's mostly a summary of what's already known - that Fed officials plan to reduce asset purchases in steps, the timing of which is still being debated. The article leans heavily on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, two well-known hawks (and non-voters on the FOMC this year) who would have already tightened if it was up to them. A number of Fed speakers - including Bernanke - are set to speak next week. [View news story]
Consumer prices rise 2.4% in China during April, up from 2.1% in March and slightly above economists' estimates. Producer prices fell 2.6% during the month, a steeper decline than expected. [View news story]
Volatility ETFs Could Face A Short Squeeze [View article]
FOMC Announcement: The FOMC is prepared to increase or decrease the pace of its asset purchases (currently $85B/month) depending on what happens on the economic front, particularly the jobs picture. The Committee continues to expect a "highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends." [View news story]
What people are waiting is nothing..