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mswyman

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  • SolarCity Retained Value Redux: The Utilities Strike Back [View article]
    RSA: Check this out...
    http://bit.ly/1jlnVQS

    Good Luck!
    Apr 20 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Retained Value Redux: The Utilities Strike Back [View article]
    RSA: Highly unlikely your panels won't work for more than 20 years. Mine are still cooking after 15 with no diminution of power. And I've seen arrays that are still generating in the 90+ percentile range after 35 years. (Most panels are guaranteed for 25, minimum.) Can't beat silicon wafers under glass. They'll probably outlast your grandchildren!

    Hang in there,. buddy
    Apr 20 03:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chile's Earthquake, El Nino Pending, Drought Breaking In Brazil And Commodities [View article]
    Funny. I thought the Oceans were warmed by the Sun's heat. Which is not carried by visible light. But that's just my Chemistry 101 kicking in. Interesting take on the physics of the Sun's effect on the ocean tho, Robert.

    And thanks for the article, James. And the tips. Hope there will be a place for us late comers to jump in at some point. ;-)
    Apr 20 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reevaluating Gilead Sciences After The Sell-Off [View article]
    Thanks, Doc!
    Apr 16 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reevaluating Gilead Sciences After The Sell-Off [View article]
    While I am as aware as anyone of the hypocrisies and penchant for posturing of our beloved politicians in Washington, I think some of the commentators are selling the critics of Gilead's pricing of Sovaldi short. (No pun intended.)

    A little history: Gilead did not develop Sovaldi. They acquired it when they purchased Pharmasset in 2011 for $11Billion. Gilead then nursed Sovaldi thru the testing required by the FDA, and succeeded in obtaining approval. They should be credited with their recognition of a potentially breakthru drug, and their willingness to invest in the process of bringing it to market.

    The cost to Gilead of bringing Sovaldi to market, and then manufacturing enough to treat the 3 million people in this country who suffer from Hep C, is a cost that Gilead has every right to expect to recoup when it sets a price on an 8 - 12 week regime of its medicine.

    That much being said, what is with the $84,000.00 charge for the treatment? With 3 million Hep C patients in this country alone, that comes to approximately $250 Billion dollars worth of income for Gilead, if everyone winds up being treated with the drug. That's at least 20x what it would need to recoup the cost of its investment.

    If you do the arithmetic, all Gilead would need to recoup the cost of purchasing Pharmasset is $3667 per patient. Add into that the costs of final development and production, plus a reasonable profit, and I doubt you would be talking about more than $8400 per patient, which is about one tenth of what they are now asking.

    I don't know what Gilead was thinking when it set the bar so high, but with cheaper competition on the horizon, and insurance companies and Medicare/Medicaide balking at their pricing, I wouldn't be surprised if Gilead doesn't find that it has priced itself out of a large part of its market.

    Has anyone at Gilead heard of forward pricing? I hope so. But perhaps the folks at Gilead figure enough people will pay the price of life to make the Sovaldi line profitable. Since I don't know the cost of development or the cost of production per treatment, I don't know exactly how many treatment regimes Gilead would need to break even, or start realizing a profit, but it's probably somewhere around 200,000 patients.

    It just might be that this is what Gilead is aiming for. It won't take a high percentage of Hep C patients to realize a windfall. By my guess, probably less than 10% in America alone.

    That's a cold-hearted calculus, but one that will continue to make Gilead profitable, if not universally popular.

    Full Disclosure: I am long Gilead.
    Apr 16 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roche's Competitive Advantage [View article]
    Wow. Wonderful overview of the biopharma terrain and Roche's place in the matrix. More! More!
    Apr 10 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind The Scenes With Proactive, Inovio And Unilife [View article]
    Thanks for the reference. The convo seems to be a bit more than a promotional event to me, Robert, but I'll keep a skeptical hat on just in case. Thanks again.
    PS: In case it wasn't obvious, I'm long INO.
    Mar 27 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind The Scenes With Proactive, Inovio And Unilife [View article]
    Interesting that INO is up nearly 13% today, even in the face of Richard's article. Looks like the awards INO received yesterday trumped the concerns about gilding the lily with IR sponsored articles and interviews.

    What to think? Well, in the case of GALE's interaction with the Dream Team, GALE is alleged to have edited the articles that were posted by DT, which, as I understand it, is a big no-no in the eyes of the SEC.

    Significantly, no evidence of any INO participation in the clearance or editing of posted IR-originated articles has come to light. Neither has there been any evidence of insiders trading on or otherwise benefiting from IR firm promotion.

    Instead, INO has continued to impress its peers with the high quality of performance in its chosen field, and is moving ahead on its testing schedule. To the extent that today's market valuation is a reflection of continuing investor confidence in INO's product line and management, then the verdict of the jury that counts the most is in. It reads: Not Guilty.
    Mar 27 05:16 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovaldi's Patent War [View article]
    This is a dimension of Bio-Tech and Bio-Pharma that I don't often hear discussed. Thanks for a look at the seamy legalistic underside of the business, Peter. Seems kind of interesting that none of these lawsuits were filed until after Gilead had spent the millions of dollars and years of hard work necessary to navigate Sovaldi all the way to FDA approval. Reminiscent of the story of the Little Red Hen. The other companies aren't good enough to do the work producing the grain, or baking the bread, but they are perfectly happy to sit down and demand a slice. Long (live) Gilead, and I hope they win!
    Mar 26 11:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Is Selling Celgene; I'm A Buyer [View article]
    Clayton: I continue to like Celgene, and the information you have provided reaffirms my attitude. Notwithstanding the naysayers, Celgene is deeply involved in R&A of new product lines as well as active promotion of several promising lines, funded in part by income from successful products. There is just no argument for selling here. Full Disclosure: I am long CELG.
    Mar 25 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sum Of All Fears: Public Service Announcement - The Russell 2000 Is Wildly Overvalued! [View article]
    I agree with the gist of your point, dectra, and deplore the political histrionics we are subjected to when the subject of the debt comes up. A couple of things about the debt do bother me tho. One, we are presently borrowing money to pay interest on the debt, which last time I checked was about $250B per annum. Borrowing more money to pay the interest on what you owe is never a good sign: sort of like using one credit card to pay off the interest on another credit card. It's a big warning light that says: Time to get your fiscal house in order.
    Two, if we owe $17T in debt, what does it mean that this country has never realized a surplus of even one Trillion? It would take 17 years of a one Trillion Dollar federal surplus to pay off the debt (not including additional interest.). That doesn't give me a heart attack, it's true, but it's still kind of scary.
    Mar 25 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sum Of All Fears: Public Service Announcement - The Russell 2000 Is Wildly Overvalued! [View article]
    I, too, was a bit puzzled by this article. The Russell Page estimates the trailing P/E (ex-Neg) as 22.37. [http://bit.ly/1gWvdsy] It's difficult to imagine that this year's P/E is going to be 83xEarnings. That's quite a drop in earnings. Price to Book is 2.4, and average earnings increase over the next 5 years is projected at 11.77%. Doesn't sound all that overextended to me.
    Michael: Would love to see your sourcing on this figure. Thanks.
    Mar 25 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At The Galena Biopharma Controversy [View article]
    Bryce: I appreciate your examination of all the other factors playing into the movement of both GALE and CytRx stocks. I suspect that your article will be read by the defense counsel of both companies. It should also be read by the SEC, before they assume too much about the movement of shares of either company. It's a tangled web, but I appreciate your contribution to untangling it for the 9-5'ers who don't have the time to do the research themselves. [Long both GALE and CytRx.]
    Mar 13 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind The Scenes With Dream Team, CytRx And Galena [View article]
    Richard: Thanks for all your efforts in clarifying the heart of the mess that is the business operations of GALE and CytRx. I fear the drama is just beginning, tho, and await the next chapter with the same level of anticipation as I await the next episode of an HBO mini-series. Do you think the GALE/CytRx upheaval will ever qualify as a sequel to "Wolf of Wall Street?"
    PS: Long GALE and CytRx. (I've taken profits in CytRx and am ahead overall, for what it's worth.)
    Mar 13 03:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HCI Group's CEO Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    If business is so rosey, why the present drop?
    Mar 5 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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