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mswyman

mswyman
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  • El NiƱo Blowing Through Ag Commodities [View article]
    Timely article, Tim. Now, just how does one invest in Zinc, I wonder?
    May 25, 2015. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Divest From Solar Industry ETFs? [View article]
    $OTCPK:HNGSF On Wednesday Han Energy Thin Film Power dropped 47% in 24 minutes before trading was suspended: a loss of $19B in market value. This, according to Wall Street Breakfast, SA. Congratulations to everyone who shorted this stock. You should make a bundle if they ever resume trading! :-(
    May 21, 2015. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar Launches In To Direct Residential Solar Market [View article]
    Typo watch: I think you mean "now further refining it in Europe." Good to see CSIQ with a business plan for expansion into markets that it will need when the Japanese market becomes saturated. Long CSIQ.
    May 19, 2015. 09:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Divest From Solar Industry ETFs? [View article]
    You've summed up the reason why I never bought solar ETF's. Easier to avoid the pitfalls with a little selectivity. A short option in December, maybe?
    May 19, 2015. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity's Connections Offer Invaluable Benefits [View article]
    SII: Excellent review of the business reputation asset valuation aspect of SCTY. Much appreciation.
    May 12, 2015. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Deal Shows Desire To Put Oncology At Centre Of Post-Hep C Strategy [View article]
    With all the money GILD has made on Sovaldi, I suspect the latest acquisition is just the first of many. I never cease to be amazed at the brilliance of the managers of this company and fully expect that if anyone can make serious inroads into the oncology field, GILD will. Long GILD.
    May 10, 2015. 08:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Solar ETFs Continue To Shine Post Q1 Results? [View article]
    Great summary, Zacks. Keep up the good work. Thanks!
    May 7, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acceleration Wars: Intel, Nvidia, Xilinx And Altera [View article]
    Thanks, Bill. Your commentary and the replies it occasions are always an eye-opener! Much appreciated.
    May 7, 2015. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acceleration Wars: Intel, Nvidia, Xilinx And Altera [View article]
    Bruce: Does this integration innovation make GPU's history, or will they be kept for redundancy and specialization purposes, do you think?
    May 7, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Raising Rooftop Solar's Barriers To Entry [View article]
    Thanks, Mario!
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Raising Rooftop Solar's Barriers To Entry [View article]
    All: I have a solar system that is 15 years old, and is "obsolete" by the limited definition used above. I have no intention of removing it, however. Indeed, I just added an east facing array of state of the art panels that increased the generation of my solar by 50%. Why should I get rid of either of them, ever? As long as they generate electricity, I've got it made.
    The Sacramento municipal utility system in California has a solar PV array that is 30 years old, and it's still pumping out electricity, and there are no plans to replace it or remove it that I know of. Why should they if its still working?
    Some people are driving cars that are 50 years old, and see no reason to "upgrade" if the car is still working and doing the job it is supposed to do. Why spend money on a new car if the old one still works?
    Remember, prop-driven planes and sailboats are both based on "obsolete" technology, but you see them everywhere. Just because we have jets and powerboats doesn't mean that outdated technology doesn't have its appeal!
    Apr 14, 2015. 01:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Busting The Myth Of Grid Parity: The Residential Solar PPA/Lease Death Spiral [View article]
    Thanks for the additional detail, Doc! Financing with short term debt is a hazard for any company. Good to know.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Busting The Myth Of Grid Parity: The Residential Solar PPA/Lease Death Spiral [View article]
    Works for me, CA. Thanks again for all your hard work and diligence.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Busting The Myth Of Grid Parity: The Residential Solar PPA/Lease Death Spiral [View article]
    All:
    I remain skeptical about the predictions of fiscal Armageddon for the PPA/Lease model. A lot depends on whether the PPA's are used in the distributed solar market or the centralized utility generation market. For a company like SCTY, which uses both, and employs a growth over profitability model that resembles a hybrid of a non-pass through REIT and a high-tech growth company more than a traditional Solar Corporation, plotting the ultimate outcome of their business dynamic is perilous.
    For instance, SCTY has a $1.55 debt as a company, which is about 1/3 of its market capitalization. If we treat that debt as a 30 year solar mortgage, servicing the principal and the interest on that debt at today's rates, would yield an annual cost of a little over $7,850,000. This, for a company with annual revenues of $255 million, would not seem to be an inordinate level of debt service (about 3% of revenues). This might explain why the big banks continue to line up to loan SCTY money to continue marketing on its existing model.
    If SCTY continues to self-finance its own expansion, it could conceivably continue to grow for quite some time to come even while operating at a technical loss. Only when the solar market itself begins to reach peak distribution, would it make sense for SCTY to change to a value first model by cutting back on expenses in order to achieve nominal profitability, and start looking at stock buybacks, dividend payouts and other mechanisms of value enhancement.
    For analysts like Casual Analyst, I think the chief question is whether SCTY can continue to grow revenues with its present model, including its recent modifications to allow for funding PV array purchases as well as offering lease arrangement, while holding the line on the growth of expenses. So far I've seen no indication that it can't, though changes in market regulations and credits will impact its model, and all other solar marketing models locally and nationally. Whether that impact will be marginal and temporary, or more long term and transformative will depend on the capacity of each solar company to meet these new challenges.
    As always, thanks for the vigorous discussion, all, and a special tip of the hat to CA for his deep research and provocative analysis.
    Full Disclosure: Long SCTY (including put sales and leap call purchases) and long SUNE, FSLR, CSIQ, JKS, SPWR & TSL.
    Mar 30, 2015. 03:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Second Solar Boom Begun? [View article]
    Presently, the technology of the utility grids allows for enough source differentiation that storage is not needed as a backup at utility scale generation levels. Solar PV complements core power generation, and will continue to play that role as its contribution to overall power generation expands. Solar thermal, by contrast, generates electricity for many hours after sunset, and provides power in large volumes during the night hours, and without storage as as backup. Solar, in other words, is closing in on a 24/7 power generation capability without the added expense of battery storage.
    For the infinitely curious commentators on SA, I invite you to take a look at the BrightSource website for further information. http://bit.ly/1D8gegU
    Cheers!
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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