Natural Gas: Possibly The Best Trade Of 2012 Fast Approaching [View article]
You are kidding, right? Supply and demand applies to everything - in case of commodities specials caveats apply to specific commodities. As for the SPR, it represents a source of potential supply that is currently locked up; but whenever the government has released it, the price has indeed fallen. (The last time in June '11 when the government released 30mb, the price fell almost $5 a barrel). So, once again, please take available supplies vs. demand for natural gas into account before you start talking about fundamental analysis. I too am bullish long term about natural gas but simply because it has fallen so much doesn't mean it cannot fall any more. People have called a bottom for natural gas at many points during this persistent downtrend and I think it is because they confuse long term optimism with short term supply-demand distortions like the one we have now.
Bank Of America: The New King Of The Hill? [View article]
RegardedSolutions, what do you see as catalysts for BAC in 2012-13? Is it merely the improving economy or something else? I got in long BAC at $5.40 and exited at $7.80 and am skeptical of the current rally because I don't see any near to intermediate catalysts so I would love to hear your take on it.
Natural Gas: Possibly The Best Trade Of 2012 Fast Approaching [View article]
From what I understand, the steep and continuing fall in gas prices currently is not so much because of the inventory buildup (it is 45% more than expected for this time of the year) due to reduced demand, mostly because of the warm weather. Please include an analysis of the demand (or at least mention it as a significant factor) before stating that "I am suspicious of the fundamental reasons for the fall in natural gas prices." Before being suspicious, shouldn't you take into account all the applicable fundamental reasons?
Sector And Stock Trading Range Charts [View article]
I know the English meaning of the terms. I am trying to understand the defining criteria used by the author of this article. It seems to be something like beyond two standard deviations of the 50 day SMA, but I didn't want to make any assumptions.
Amarin's Short Term Volatility Underlies Long Term Potential [View article]
Wow! I just read your recent comments and am a bit embarassed with my earlier reply (below). You seem to have analyzed the company far more than I have. I would love to know your take on it.
Amarin's Short Term Volatility Underlies Long Term Potential [View article]
The market seems to have assumed that FDA approval for AMR101 is a given as is the size of the target market which is a blockbuster. So, the biggest reason for the volatility and the pessimism surrounding the stock comes from the uncertainty about the patent - without a reasonable patent protection in place, the entry barrier for the competition is quite low and starts after five years rather than a patent-protected duration of a much longer duration. I am optimistic because I think the patent concerns are quite overblown and AMRN will succeed in obtaining sufficient patent protection. (Now this is entirely my take on it and I am no patent expert by any means, so please help me correct my notion if I am basing my argument on a fatal assumption.) So my optimism stems from the fact that I believe once the patent protection is in place AMRN is going to have exclusivity for much longer than 2021, which is what it will get if it simply gets NCE status from the FDA at approval. However, even under those circumstances, it would still turn out to be a pretty good investment, although it may no longer be an attractive takeover target. For some more info on AMR, read the following from some people far more knowledgeable than me: http://bit.ly/A6zKtg http://bit.ly/w6Dook http://bit.ly/yKi6T4 I am still trying to understand the nature of the patents held by Mochida for Epadel, so I do have some reservations but as I pointed out I am also waiting for a better entry point to go long and I plan to use this time to do my due diligence. Would appreciate your thoughts on this.
Amarin's Short Term Volatility Underlies Long Term Potential [View article]
Very nice commentary. However, purely on technicals, (I mean absolutely ignoring the fundamentals!), AMRN seems to have developed a flag pattern in a downtrend that started last June. And now it appears to have resumed its downtrend over the last few days. The sentiment is also quite optimistic (e.g. a short interest ratio of only 1.2 as of last Friday despite the high volatility) and so from a contrarian point of view, a continuation of the downtrend appears likely. I am very optimistic about AMRN long-term but haven't taken a position in it yet. I would wait for some sign of an intermediate bottom before getting on the long side. Alternatively consider buying out of the money calls after the stock drops a bit; they are quite expensive now.
We Think Pfizer Is Ridiculously Cheap [View article]
Coumarin is actually a precursor molecule used to make warfarin, but it is my mistake that I confused it for Coumadin and which you are absolutely correct is the trade name for warfarin. It doesn't change your ignorance about the new healthcare bill, though, nor does it change my request that you please take your politics (liberal, conservative or any other brand) elsewhere. I am not peddling any political ideas and I am simply suggesting you do the same. This is not the place for bigoted rancour; please keep it in check.
A useful analogy here is that of alcoholism. The government has used debt as a treatment for debt and there is a precedent for this is medicine. Usually, when patients are treated for alcohol addiction, they are required to go off alcohol immediately. They undergo a huge physiological and psychological adjustment - an acutely painful process that eventually leads to a favorable long term outcome, the total elimination of dependency on alcohol. Occasionally, however, in cases of extremely severe alcoholism (patients that are near comatose), the first line of treatment actually includes alcohol, in order to not shock the alcohol-dependent physiology that the body has adapted to. Once the vitals of the patient improve, the patient is then forced through an acute deaddiction later when he/she can handle it better. It is a Catch 22 situation. Should you give alcohol to a patient who you are trying to wean off alcohol but without which the patient might just not survive? If the analogous precedent of alcohol deaddiction is to be believed (and I think it should be, since it works!) the US Fed seems to have done a good job so far of first keeping the patient alive. The severe nature of the crisis warranted this action (albeit they should also have dealt with mortgage modifications). I hope that once the economy is on its feet. the Fed and the government overall has the sense of completing the deaddiction program.
We Think Pfizer Is Ridiculously Cheap [View article]
@ Dr. Strangelove, The new healthcare bill does not prevent new drugs from coming to the market. As a "pharmaceutical executive" you would do well to educate yourself better about that. The bill requires newer therapies to prove that they are meaningfully better than the existing ones. And I, for one, agree with that. Why would I want a fancy monoclonal antibody that costs $700 a pop to cure a headache that can be cured with a simple Tylenol that costs pennies? If the industry is only going to innovate for the purpose of innovating and not actually improving quality of healthcare for their end users then the stockholders of these companies are better off investing elsewhere. Also, if you want to discuss your death panel politics, please take it elsewhere. There are other forums appropriate for that kind of discussion. This happens to be an investment ideas forum. And FYI, it is coumarin (with a small C), not Coumadin.
Cold Fusion: A Cure For High Gas Prices [View article]
Cancer has been cured in mice 10,000 times. Einstein's theory of relativity has been challenged even more number of times. (The most recent example being of an experiment at the well-known Large Hadron Collider whose erroneous claim now appears to be due a faulty wiring!) I am a research scientist in the biological sciences, so I don't understand a lot of the technical "mumbo-jumbo" in the area of cold fusion. But I do know this. Any scientific claim that is too good to be true will be so unless it has been thorougly vetted. And I can assure you, Sir, a mere 70 academic publications on a subject as important as this doesn't quite cut it. By the way, even if one takes this giant leap of faith and assumes the science behind it is authentic and reproducible, scaling up a technology takes years to decades. Just look at the whole algae biodiesel field - no one is anywhere close to scaling it up at meaningful quantities even after spending billions of dollars.
Finding Value In Low-Payout, Less Liquid Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
Yeah, they all sound like "boring" stocks that almost no one pays attention to.....hence the low volatility. In fact EEI's chart shows a very good long uptrend that is interrupted by major moves that coincide with market crises. Current price seems compelling but need to research prospects more.
Finding Value In Low-Payout, Less Liquid Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
A very nice article and a very different approach! Thanks again for a nicely written article. What I find interesting is that the beta on 3 out of 4 is exceptionally low (0.2 to 0.42 with SPAN being a bit higher at 1 - all data from Yahoo! Finance). Any thoughts? I don't think the low beta has anything to do with the low liquidity, but it is intriguing.
The Mega-Trend That Guarantees The Cost of Living Will Rise [View article]
Please understand basic mathematics before basing an entire article on a fallacious interpretation. The rate of increase in yield, not the yield itself is getting lowered. The yield used to grow by 2.2%, and now it grew by 1.1% . So how do you conclude in the next sentence that "But we’ve actually seen a decrease in food output in terms of yield." For anything, the rate of increase is going to go down as the size increases. For e.g. large developed economies grow much slower than developing economies. Berkshire Hathaway's stock will grow much slower than a startup business. Please retract the article unless you have something better to add.
Natural Gas: Possibly The Best Trade Of 2012 Fast Approaching [View article]
Bank Of America: The New King Of The Hill? [View article]
Natural Gas: Possibly The Best Trade Of 2012 Fast Approaching [View article]
Sector And Stock Trading Range Charts [View article]
Sector And Stock Trading Range Charts [View article]
Amarin's Short Term Volatility Underlies Long Term Potential [View article]
Amarin's Short Term Volatility Underlies Long Term Potential [View article]
So, the biggest reason for the volatility and the pessimism surrounding the stock comes from the uncertainty about the patent - without a reasonable patent protection in place, the entry barrier for the competition is quite low and starts after five years rather than a patent-protected duration of a much longer duration. I am optimistic because I think the patent concerns are quite overblown and AMRN will succeed in obtaining sufficient patent protection. (Now this is entirely my take on it and I am no patent expert by any means, so please help me correct my notion if I am basing my argument on a fatal assumption.) So my optimism stems from the fact that I believe once the patent protection is in place AMRN is going to have exclusivity for much longer than 2021, which is what it will get if it simply gets NCE status from the FDA at approval. However, even under those circumstances, it would still turn out to be a pretty good investment, although it may no longer be an attractive takeover target. For some more info on AMR, read the following from some people far more knowledgeable than me:
http://bit.ly/A6zKtg
http://bit.ly/w6Dook
http://bit.ly/yKi6T4
I am still trying to understand the nature of the patents held by Mochida for Epadel, so I do have some reservations but as I pointed out I am also waiting for a better entry point to go long and I plan to use this time to do my due diligence. Would appreciate your thoughts on this.
Amarin's Short Term Volatility Underlies Long Term Potential [View article]
We Think Pfizer Is Ridiculously Cheap [View article]
Business Confidence: The Catch-22 [View article]
It is a Catch 22 situation. Should you give alcohol to a patient who you are trying to wean off alcohol but without which the patient might just not survive?
If the analogous precedent of alcohol deaddiction is to be believed (and I think it should be, since it works!) the US Fed seems to have done a good job so far of first keeping the patient alive. The severe nature of the crisis warranted this action (albeit they should also have dealt with mortgage modifications). I hope that once the economy is on its feet. the Fed and the government overall has the sense of completing the deaddiction program.
We Think Pfizer Is Ridiculously Cheap [View article]
Cold Fusion: A Cure For High Gas Prices [View article]
By the way, even if one takes this giant leap of faith and assumes the science behind it is authentic and reproducible, scaling up a technology takes years to decades. Just look at the whole algae biodiesel field - no one is anywhere close to scaling it up at meaningful quantities even after spending billions of dollars.
Finding Value In Low-Payout, Less Liquid Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
Finding Value In Low-Payout, Less Liquid Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
What I find interesting is that the beta on 3 out of 4 is exceptionally low (0.2 to 0.42 with SPAN being a bit higher at 1 - all data from Yahoo! Finance). Any thoughts? I don't think the low beta has anything to do with the low liquidity, but it is intriguing.
The Mega-Trend That Guarantees The Cost of Living Will Rise [View article]
For anything, the rate of increase is going to go down as the size increases. For e.g. large developed economies grow much slower than developing economies. Berkshire Hathaway's stock will grow much slower than a startup business.
Please retract the article unless you have something better to add.