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KtgGroup

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  • You're Not A Sucker, But We All Should Be Better Second-Level Thinkers [View article]
    I have read the three articles referenced within. I think there is a misunderstanding around the use of the word "sucker". When using that word by this author, it is my interpretation that he is basically talking about the expectation that the apparent yield is likely to be inconsistent and more volatile than it would seem without having examined where the particular REIT is going to get the money to pay the dividend. He is saying the yield is a sucker, because he is warning uniformed people, desperate for yield in a generally low yield environment, that you have to look more at what is behind the yield than the yield itself. So I think those offended need to understand that it is the high yield trying to sucker you into buying, not that you are a sucker if you own shares. Thus, it is the yield that is the sucker, not the investor. On a side note, however, I do feel like a sucker for buying NLY at around $16.00 in spite of warnings about the company from my more knowledgable brother. So, you could say, and I think the author would agree, that I was a sucker for the sucker yield, because I didn't understand where the yield was coming from and the relationship to its price as well as I should have. However, some one that bought NLY at $16 after doing the diligence described above would not be a sucker, but some one who learned something from the market.
    Sep 8 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why McDonald's Is A McSell [View article]
    Being pre-millennial, I would never resort to Consumer's Reports to decide on a place to eat, just as I wouldn't use the college ranking b.s put out by the other magazines. You go to a college that has the programs you want and is reasonably affordable. People go to McDonald's because they know exactly what they want and what they are going to get.....anywhere in the country.

    At the other restaurants, I hate the performance anxiety of trying to figure out what to order with an unfamiliar selection and menu that makes you have to read all the fine print to see what is on it and whether I can get a half sandwich with a bowl of suspiciously gelatinous soup . The anxiety comes in because of the long line of people standing there while you try to decide. These places never have enough seats.

    Social media? What, you need some one to twitter to you where you should eat? Unplug and think for yourself. Social conscience......are you kidding me? Have you ever heard of the Ronald McDonald Houses. FYI, they provide low cost housing and support to families whose children are seriously ill......and they have been doing this for years. You need to reconsider how important your generation is compared to the other demographics. The tail end of the baby-boomers isn't even going to retire for at least ten more years. There is a whole generation after that that grew up on MCD and will continue to go there. If you want to be sustainable, buy locally and cook your own food, and brown bag it to work.
    Jul 4 12:52 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Love My 'Magic Pants' And My Partners Wear Them Proudly [View article]
    I would like to add that the dividend paying stocks feel less volatile to me. It is nice to see my portfolio of these stocks drop only a fraction of the total market. Also, if dividends don't matter, then look at the chart for CTL a while back. I know the company faces complex issues and debt, but the reason the price of the stock dropped so sharply was partly due to dividend investors unloading shares after the dividend cut. So I would argue that, qualitatively, dividends add stability and price support for dividend distributing companies.
    Mar 20 08:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Crowd Wisdom Predicts Future Stock Returns [View article]
    Several have mentioned that the comments are sometimes more useful than the article. I have seen many cases where this might be true. However, I would also add that many of the comments complement the article by providing more technical background information about the subject than the author could. Obviously, some of the commenters are providing opinions based on personal experience or training that I find either buttresses the article, or shows its holes.

    What I would like to see is the author interact in the comments more. Some are diligent about doing this, but usually they quit after the first day. This type of dialog can be very helpful.

    Finally, I think in the long run that the two tier system will counteract the research being touted here. Why? I assume fewer people pay for the pro site, therefore less crowd sourcing, resulting in a decrease in the predictive quality of that tier. Having a second tier provides the site revenue, while I would argue, ironically, that it decreases an important aspect of the sites usefulness as discussed in the research article.
    Mar 20 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Immense Potential For Growth [View article]
    I would take this article more seriously if the author bothered to address at least a couple of the reasonable comments made here. All of the other authors I follow usually attempt to address comments on their contributions. This article is also the only one I can remember reading on Seeking Alpha to explicitly recommend buying the stock in question. This seems odd.
    Mar 13 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Walt Disney Company: A Pretty Attractive Stock For Investors [View article]
    Raising the ticket price to $99 was a first strike move to avoid being the first theme park to charge over $100. That will now be a challenge for the other theme parks to stay below the psychologically important $100 price threshold. I would like to challenge that Disney's Disney channel shows are a guaranteed profit maker as, seeing the shows my children watch, they truly suck......and that is from an entertainment perspective. My opinion is they are in a transition phase in which several popular shows ended, bad as they were, and producers are throwing anything on their channels to find a show that will stick. Nickelodeon is suffering from similar product malaise.

    As far as movies go, profits from a few good movies can easily be wiped out by a single bad one, at today's production costs. Pretty soon Americans will realize that the movies are also being written so the jokes and story lines will translate to other cultures. So be prepared for more of the clich├ęd burping and farting jokes, the catch-all phrase "dude, that was awesome", and the ever popular story line about the precocious, over talented child that makes a fool of grown ups. Then again, seeing what Americans are watching on reality TV, they may not notice water-downed story lines and generic jokes and catchphrases.

    My real question is when is some one going to make a film based on the "Six Million Dollar Man" episode where he battles Bigfoot?
    Mar 6 09:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola Company: Recent Price Dip Is An Opportunity To Buy The Stock [View article]
    Jimmy is fat because he sits around after school watching tv/playing video games and drinking energy drinks or soda along with snacks furnished by PepsiCo. His parents both work to break even financially and are too tired or time constrained to buy and prepare a heathy meal. Instead, Jimmy fills up on empty carbohydrates. Jimmy's parents are probably also fat as up to a third of the population in many states is obese. They are poor and undereducated about diet and don't shop at whole foods or trader joe's and don't belong to a gym. They don't buy milk or orange juice as they cost more per gallon than the gas needed to get the parents to work. Jimmy being fat has a lot less to do with the soda he drinks than his overall lifestyle. Jimmy's parents have access to the free flow of information but likely don't have the time, energy, income, or education to act on it. Being obese is a lot more complicated than soda consumption.
    Feb 25 11:26 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update's 2014 Bakken Stock Picks [View article]
    When will this growing glut of oil bring fuel and fuel oil to more affordable levels? Why export the oil just so some oil companies can make more money. Lower priced domestic fuel would give the economy a stronger leg to stand on when the extra disposable income is spent on something besides gas.
    Jan 5 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Agrees - Doing Nothing Is The Path To Investment Success [View article]
    Finally, a comment addressing the importance of the price of the stock, in addition to the yield and growth. Everybody has put together a great wish list for excellent stocks to purchase, however, with many near multi-year highs, when the economy is worse than the last time the stocks were valued this high, it is difficult to rationalize buying now. Even a pullback of 1-2% doesn't represent a buying opportunity at these levels. I want the best of both worlds, capital appreciation and solid growing dividends. Not sure if the opportunity will come along, but I will wait a little longer before buying anything now.
    Nov 1 08:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction In High-Yielding Mortgage REIT Stocks Is Worth Buying [View article]
    While these stocks represent a chance to catch something with a decent yield, you neglect to mention preservation of capital. The current prices may seem like dip-buying opportunities, but if the concerns about dividend cuts and the related bad press mRIETS have received turn out to be real, then there is still plenty of room for the stocks to fall. I agree with your article, that the selloff has been large and this may be a good time to buy, but will the yield continue to make up for the paper losses?

    After all, sometimes people have to sell, even when they don't want to. Ever have your 401k manager decide they no longer want to offer the discount brokerage option? This has happened to me and let me tell you that forced liquidation of holdings at a loss is very difficult to live with, particularly when market highs are reached only a few months later.

    Anyway, my point is that even though you may intend to capture the yield for the medium to long term, you may, in the meantime, find yourself in a situation where you have to sell and eat a sour loss. But then again, who can tell what the market will do, but it is a thought that should be kept in mind.
    Thanks,
    Oct 17 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield Closed-End Funds Trading At Discounts To NAV [View article]
    I have one small issue with the concept being promoted here. Part of the problem with finding a decent yield today is based on the fact that the market, in general, seems overpriced to many people, including me. Several of the frequently followed dividend investing articles lament that prices are too high right now to get a decent yield.

    My issue is that, as far as I understand CEFs, NAV is being used as the benchmark for determining whether the price of the equity is at a premium or not. If the assets of the particular CEFs are as pumped as the general market seems to be, then the NAVs for these CEFs are likely as pumped up as well, which is refected by the current multi-year highs being asked for many of these equities.

    If this is the case, then the buyer paying current prices, even if below current NAV, risks a potentially large loss of capital, at least on paper, if there is any kind of substantial market pullback.

    I realize the author's intent is to point out good options for finding a decent yield in this market, but the risk on the capital in the event of a market correction could have been mentioned. Please correct me if I am wrong.
    Thanks.
    Oct 15 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cincinnati Financial Corp: Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Thanks,
    I read the transcript for the conference call and was just curious about other opinions.....it is looking attractive at this level though.
    Jul 17 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cincinnati Financial Corp: Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    I am curious to know people's opinions regarding current market price and exposure to recent natural disasters for CINF. Are the losses priced in at current levels, or will there be a big negative surprise at earnings report? Similar question for HGIC.
    Jul 15 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Passing on Cameco: Cloudy Future, No Real Discount in Pricing [View article]
    The appeal of nuclear power to the utility companies is its ability to provide the steady base supply of electricity so that the utilities only have to use more expensive alternatives during peak demand. Nuclear power is "always on" and there is no economic substitute for it. It is here to stay, just slowed down a little. Timing when to invest is the trick and I am watching URA to do it.
    Jul 12 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why to Buy This Bakken Pull Back? Production and Recovery [View article]
    From last earnings season, it seems that a lot of these producers are hedged at around $80 oil for the near future. So, if oil is above that level, they are all going to have hedging losses on their balance sheet this earnings season too. That might be the time to buy these- when they are sold off again, because the nature of the loss will be misunderstood, as it was last time around. Either way, based on the near term hedging, I think many of these producers are over priced for the short term. They won't be able to fully realize the gain from higher oil prices until they renegotiate their hedges and will otherwise continue to have paper losses.
    Jun 27 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
115 Comments
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