Vinsanity's Comments

10 Reasons the Equity Rally Is Over

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 11:08:53 -0500

so, earnings need to multiply tenfold to justify current values, or stocks go down 90%. That is comforting....

On Dec 09 09:44 AM swaps wrote:

> Richard Russell, who is in his 80s, had this to say two days ago:
> Investors who loaded up on stocks at the areas shown below made fortunes.
>
> June, 1949 -- S&P P/E ratio was 5.6. Dividend yield was 7.38%
>
> October, 1974 -- S&P P/E ratio was 7.0. Dividend yield was 5.97%
>
> August, 1982 -- S&P P/E ratio was 6.9. Dividend yield was 6.72%

S&P: Hyper Exuberance Brings 66% Chance of New Lows Ahead

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 10:33:44 -0400

i can see the sky thru my roof already...i need a TARP.

Boom or Bust Cycle: Where Are We Now?

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 16:59:12 -0400

Dave, this ain't America's Next Top Model and you ain't Tyra Banks either, chief. Restrain your commentary to the intellectual debate.

I am a committed bear (took the red pill in Feb 08) this is one of the few bullish positions that actually make sense to me. Carry on Alex.

Why This Rally Will Continue

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 10:22:08 -0400

Mr. Graham, you cite irrationality often in this article, but then try to rationally support reasons for the current situation to continue. That , on its face, is irrational.

Some Graham and Dodd Type Thoughts on Stocks vs. Bonds

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 10:08:42 -0400

bonds have had a bad rap for the past decade because individual investor heuristics favor get-rich quick schemes of stocks. Then, investors complain that the stocks that could have made them rich if they sold at a premium valuation fell back to book value.

Every investor should own some bonds (20%, 33%, etc.) in their portfolio, regardless of age unless you are a a savvy stock analyst. Period.

Sugar, India and Monsoons

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 11:08:09 -0400

"Obviously India is meddling with the free market in sugar... Economists say India’s approach to regulating sugar is an example of how populist policies can hurt the very people they were meant to help: farmers and the rural poor.
Only a "free capitalist" market, as we have in the U.S. can work..."

Corn subsidies? Bailouts? Let us review current events...otherwise an excellent article but I can't get past this statement.

Why Everything You've Heard About Leveraged ETFs Is Wrong

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 09:49:54 -0400

another way to combat the misconceptions is for investors to perform due diligence before forming conceptions...

but in our Twitter-fied world, a name change would save some bloodshed.

On Aug 05 09:09 AM Baboon wrote:

> Simply adding the word 'daily' to the leveraged etfs' names would
> help considerably in dispelling many misconceptions about them.

Sovereign Debt Risk Declines

Wed, 15 Jul 2009 09:39:35 -0400

EMB - Sovereign EM Debt. The only economies growing GDP, right?

Madoff's Investors Don't Deserve Compensation or Sympathy

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:22:07 -0400

Social Security is a Ponzi scheme with good intentions.

Also, I expect to see a suit against the regulators who should have to answer for the paper trail they ignored from Markopolos. Not only is Madoff liable, but so should be the negligent regulators.

This was a failure of individuals, not the system.

On Jul 01 10:35 AM RiskAverseAlert wrote:

> First, "Diversification" is NOT "Investment 101." Read Gerald M.
> Loeb's "The Battle for Investment Survival." Let someone who lived
> through the Crash of '29 and subsequent bloodbath correct this bit
> of misinformation. You want to talk "propaganda?" The "balanced and
> diversified" mantra is it.
>
> Second, the Fed and Treasury have TRILLIONS for "structured finance"
> gangsters who are no less guilty of perpetrating a Ponzi scheme dwarfing
> Madoff's by several orders of magnitude. Most folks who invested
> with Madoff were not terribly sophisticated investors. They should
> be made whole because those whom they believed were watching the
> hen house were, in fact, in on the fox's wink and a smile.
>
> That the investing public is largely unsophisticated is more than
> spoken for by your "Investment 101." That compassion is missing in
> speaking about a fraud whose life should have been ended long ago
> (because its existence was in all probability known), speaks for
> the terrible problem America faces when opinion-makers reveal themselves
> as ripe for fascism.

Shorting the Brown Shoots

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:12:41 -0400

That depends on the nature of your relationship. If you have given them control and discretion and the prospectus says "No Shorting", guess what?

If it is a non-discretionary broker relationship, then they are flat lying to you to make you leave them alone. I will assume you will educate your self on how to sell short, because that button is right next to "buy" and "sell" so it is an achievable goal and concept.

On Jul 01 10:14 AM wg wrote:

> I keep hearing everybody recommending "shorting' this and that stock
> or treasury bond. Well how in hell do you do it? I'm with Merrill
> Lynch, and my brokers say they don't have the authority to short
> stocks.

10 Top Global ETFs

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 10:48:14 -0400

EM being the largest could also mean that investors need an easy way to get invested in the world's smaller exchanges, and VWO is a lot easier than calling your broker to buy a foreign ordinary onn the Kuala Lumpur exchange.

The Anti White Paper: Investing Need Not Be So Complicated

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 10:46:14 -0400

Mebane Faber's way is pretty simple from the top down...and it works.

www.mebanefaber.com

Country P/E Ratios

Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:18:56 -0400

Taiwan? Corrupt?

On Jun 25 01:45 PM InnocentsAbroad wrote:

> Of interest, it appears as if the P/E ratio is related to rule of
> law. Corrupt countries demand a higher P/E ratio. Might I suggest
> normalizing the P/E ratio with a corruption index and an accounting
> accuracy index.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Week of June 17

Fri, 19 Jun 2009 09:27:45 -0400

Maiden Lane are the off-balance-sheet LLCs setup to hold the toxic assets (CMBS, MBS, subprime mortgage securitization zombies). You know, since it is against the law for the Fed to hold anything that risky.

On Jun 19 08:21 AM paulsjj wrote:

> Whats "Maiden Lane". A lot of your readers are not familiar with
> the wall street back office jargon you use.

Comparing India Funds: iShares vs. PowerShares

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:00:26 -0400

EPI is new and quasi-actively managed. Not the first time I have failed to see the WisdomTree offer in an India review.

India: Singh's Scale of Victory a 'Game Changer'

Tue, 19 May 2009 10:47:40 -0400

do not discount mood when investing. Cranky American shoppers could choke the US economy and markets, just like emboldened Indian ones could positively impact future fortunes.

Mood = Investor Sentiment

On May 18 03:28 PM TraderMark wrote:

> Sold my HDB (99.9% of it) this AM
>
> I would not compare ICICI to HDCB - bit differnt niches and managements.
> That said, of course ICICI went up more today.
>
> Will buy on pullbacks - people acting as if Indian world changed
> overnight... good long term tailwind, nothing really changed instantly
> other than mood.

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Thu, 14 May 2009 15:19:39 -0400

But isn't this the Grand Supercycle IV bear market that will last for the entire century?

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Thu, 14 May 2009 13:13:07 -0400

wouldn't this doomsday scenario produce a more litigious social mood? I can see medical malpractice and negligence cases going thru the roof as "victims" throw a Hail Mary in the courts to acquire some savings.

On May 03 10:11 AM Doc 224899 wrote:

> "...people will have less money to spend on lawyers..."
>
> Finally. We actually need about 5% of the lawyers we now support.
> Lawyers feed off the carcasses of just about every person and corporation
> that is productive. Lawyers make money off people with personality
> disorders, the individuals who would have been kicked out of the
> wago train 130 years ago, or chased away from the cave and fire 20,000
> years ago.
>
> It's time to subject the legal profession to the same critical reviews
> we apply to health care (a service we can't live without), to reduce
> wasteful spending on legal services (which we can hardly tolerate).

Bespoke's Sector Snapshot

Thu, 14 May 2009 09:53:12 -0400

I like the methodolgy, but I always question using std deviation on stock charts since no one has ever proven that stocks/sectors/markets return display a normal distribution.

That said, these Bolllinger-Band-like measurements are the best we have for "math for the masses".

Unless anyone has an indicator built upon chaos theory out there...

Ed Yardeni Likes Emerging Markets, High Yield Bonds; Believes Europe's in for Trouble

Tue, 12 May 2009 12:30:56 -0400

the only countries with strong population growth are India and Mexico (1.6% and 1.1% per yr, per JPMorgan), and both have <6% of the poulation oplder than 65. History shows that population growth has very long term effects on stoxk market returns (see Japan for the negative case with over 21% >65.)

So, the emerging markets may not need a US-led recovery.

On May 11 03:52 AM User 305589 wrote:

> I am not ignoring it at all - maybe I am underestimating it, yes
> that could be. I am not claiming to own the crystal ball. I do think,
> however, that the odds are heavily stacked against emerging markets
> domestic demand to lead the world economy into recovery mode. It's
> simply too small yet, to accomplish that job.
> What is really striking is the magnitude and speed of the sentiment
> shift that has taken place. After almost Armageddon dears we are
> now back to speculations who will lead the next recovery.
> I am more concerned with when this next recovery will start, how
> sustainable it will be once govt. stimulus runs out and how far to
> the upside it can carry and what it could do to unemployment and
> household incomes. If the latter two don't improve substantially,
> any expectation of a sustained recovery is premature. Unless, opf
> course, you regard a real gdp growth of 0-0.5% a 'recovery'

3 Emerging Countries That Have Established Convincing Uptrends

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 10:39:28 -0400

Taiwan. India. Two more countries that may get bids, plus benefit from the global economic stimulus without spending a dime.

The Dow's Weight in Gold

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:31:07 -0400

Correct - but the only sketchiness quotient exists in whether gold is "the world's currency". That is debatable, but it makes a very curious and interesting case as it stands here in Tyler's work.

Any index is only as good as its constituents, but the value of the index is in its collective behavior related to news, economics, etc.

On Apr 16 11:34 AM auto44 wrote:

> The dow is an ever changing small group of stocks but an ounce of
> gold is always an ounce of gold. Comparisons are sketchy at best
> and bear no resemblence to the real increase or decrease in the health
> of any particular dow company or companies.

The Dow's Weight in Gold

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 11:09:44 -0400

You are referencing the relative strength of the Dollar price of the dow versus the dollar price of Gold, and that is a different study altogether.

This chart assumes gold as the currency in which to price the Dow since the denominator is ounces of gold (not gold price).

bigpicture.typepad.com...

Long Term we are now abut the same ratio we were in 1930

On Apr 16 10:51 AM Carlos Lam wrote:

> On Apr 16 09:50 AM TonyCinTX wrote:

The Dow's Weight in Gold

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 09:41:26 -0400

in price, there is truth...

the "market" absorbs all of the wildcards and prices accordingly, then mix in hysterical amounts of fear and greed and you have charts.

Prechter would say that Dow/gold shows how little true wealth has been created since 1929, most of the Dow's returns (Dow/dollar)were driven by inflation and the fractional reserve money creation system.

On Apr 16 08:40 AM yellowhoard wrote:

> Too many wild cards right now to rely on historical charts.

How CNBC Squandered Roubini and Taleb

Wed, 11 Feb 2009 11:27:10 -0500

Bob Prechter at ElliotWave International is calling for Dow 400 (not 4000), and I infer that would be by 2016 based on some of his other work. Granted, Prechter's work called for caution since 1995-ish but it is all unwinding as he predicted in his books.

How is that for a downside forecast? down 90% just like GD 1.0

2008 Synopsis: 1 Chart, 5 Asset Classes

Mon, 05 Jan 2009 15:54:41 -0500

the Elliot Wave guys...of course they called for global deflation in 2002 but the clarity in retrospect was scarily accurate.

Roger Wiegand: The Biggest Gold, Silver Rally in History

Sat, 16 Aug 2008 00:54:12 -0400

Any new thoughts now that gold is under $780???

Young Jeezy's 'The Recession': I Think We’ve Bottomed Out

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 10:08:47 -0400

Sharksm and others must realize that if they have been investing for 40 years that their "cycle" encapsulated some of the greatest market gains in history. No World Wars, unprecedented technological innovation and greater access to the markets generated a huge tailwind for you. Those tailwinds do not exist anymore. How much better than the SPX did you do over that time? My guess not much - regardless, bless you for being in their when my parents were buying penny stocks.

Buy and hold aways works if you have the right stocks or the right market - the next twenty years will not give us the same opportunity you had. Read Shillers "Irrational Exuberance" first edition for more on those tailwinds.

Top 10 Payout Yield Stocks

Mon, 23 Jun 2008 10:19:36 -0400

For goodness sake, it appears that less than half the commentors even read the headline, let alone the article. This is not about dividend yields!!! My faith in the intelligence in this industry wanes on...

PowerShares Water ETF Lacks Focus

Fri, 30 May 2008 11:45:40 -0400

Agreed. Give us a solution to the problem.