Vinsanity

Ed Yardeni Likes Emerging Markets, High Yield Bonds; Believes Europe's in for Trouble

the only countries with strong population growth are India and Mexico (1.6% and 1.1% per yr, per JPMorgan), and both have <6% of the poulation oplder than 65. History shows that population growth has very long term effects on stoxk market returns (see Japan for the negative case with over 21% >65.)

So, the emerging markets may not need a US-led recovery.


On May 11 03:52 AM User 305589 wrote:

> I am not ignoring it at all - maybe I am underestimating it, yes
> that could be. I am not claiming to own the crystal ball. I do think,
> however, that the odds are heavily stacked against emerging markets
> domestic demand to lead the world economy into recovery mode. It's
> simply too small yet, to accomplish that job.
> What is really striking is the magnitude and speed of the sentiment
> shift that has taken place. After almost Armageddon dears we are
> now back to speculations who will lead the next recovery.
> I am more concerned with when this next recovery will start, how
> sustainable it will be once govt. stimulus runs out and how far to
> the upside it can carry and what it could do to unemployment and
> household incomes. If the latter two don't improve substantially,
> any expectation of a sustained recovery is premature. Unless, opf
> course, you regard a real gdp growth of 0-0.5% a 'recovery'