Vinsanity

Boom or Bust Cycle: Where Are We Now?

Dave, this ain't America's Next Top Model and you ain't Tyra Banks either, chief. Restrain your commentary to the intellectual debate.

I am a committed bear (took the red pill in Feb 08) this is one of the few bullish positions that actually make sense to me. Carry on Alex.

Why This Rally Will Continue

Mr. Graham, you cite irrationality often in this article, but then try to rationally support reasons for the current situation to continue. That , on its face, is irrational.

Some Graham and Dodd Type Thoughts on Stocks vs. Bonds

bonds have had a bad rap for the past decade because individual investor heuristics favor get-rich quick schemes of stocks. Then, investors complain that the stocks that could have made them rich if they sold at a premium valuation fell back to book value.

Every investor should own some bonds (20%, 33%, etc.) in their portfolio, regardless of age unless you are a a savvy stock analyst. Period.

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

But isn't this the Grand Supercycle IV bear market that will last for the entire century?

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

wouldn't this doomsday scenario produce a more litigious social mood? I can see medical malpractice and negligence cases going thru the roof as "victims" throw a Hail Mary in the courts to acquire some savings.


On May 03 10:11 AM Doc 224899 wrote:

> "...people will have less money to spend on lawyers..."
>
> Finally. We actually need about 5% of the lawyers we now support.
> Lawyers feed off the carcasses of just about every person and corporation
> that is productive. Lawyers make money off people with personality
> disorders, the individuals who would have been kicked out of the
> wago train 130 years ago, or chased away from the cave and fire 20,000
> years ago.
>
> It's time to subject the legal profession to the same critical reviews
> we apply to health care (a service we can't live without), to reduce
> wasteful spending on legal services (which we can hardly tolerate).

The Dow's Weight in Gold

Correct - but the only sketchiness quotient exists in whether gold is "the world's currency". That is debatable, but it makes a very curious and interesting case as it stands here in Tyler's work.

Any index is only as good as its constituents, but the value of the index is in its collective behavior related to news, economics, etc.


On Apr 16 11:34 AM auto44 wrote:

> The dow is an ever changing small group of stocks but an ounce of
> gold is always an ounce of gold. Comparisons are sketchy at best
> and bear no resemblence to the real increase or decrease in the health
> of any particular dow company or companies.

The Dow's Weight in Gold

You are referencing the relative strength of the Dollar price of the dow versus the dollar price of Gold, and that is a different study altogether.

This chart assumes gold as the currency in which to price the Dow since the denominator is ounces of gold (not gold price).

bigpicture.typepad.com...

Long Term we are now abut the same ratio we were in 1930

On Apr 16 10:51 AM Carlos Lam wrote:

> On Apr 16 09:50 AM TonyCinTX wrote:

The Dow's Weight in Gold

in price, there is truth...

the "market" absorbs all of the wildcards and prices accordingly, then mix in hysterical amounts of fear and greed and you have charts.

Prechter would say that Dow/gold shows how little true wealth has been created since 1929, most of the Dow's returns (Dow/dollar)were driven by inflation and the fractional reserve money creation system.


On Apr 16 08:40 AM yellowhoard wrote:

> Too many wild cards right now to rely on historical charts.

Young Jeezy's 'The Recession': I Think We’ve Bottomed Out

Sharksm and others must realize that if they have been investing for 40 years that their "cycle" encapsulated some of the greatest market gains in history. No World Wars, unprecedented technological innovation and greater access to the markets generated a huge tailwind for you. Those tailwinds do not exist anymore. How much better than the SPX did you do over that time? My guess not much - regardless, bless you for being in their when my parents were buying penny stocks.

Buy and hold aways works if you have the right stocks or the right market - the next twenty years will not give us the same opportunity you had. Read Shillers "Irrational Exuberance" first edition for more on those tailwinds.

7 Lessons Football Gambling Can Teach You About Investing

so much for the Bears...that does not diminish a well done article