Vinsanity

Ed Yardeni Likes Emerging Markets, High Yield Bonds; Believes Europe's in for Trouble

the only countries with strong population growth are India and Mexico (1.6% and 1.1% per yr, per JPMorgan), and both have <6% of the poulation oplder than 65. History shows that population growth has very long term effects on stoxk market returns (see Japan for the negative case with over 21% >65.)

So, the emerging markets may not need a US-led recovery.


On May 11 03:52 AM User 305589 wrote:

> I am not ignoring it at all - maybe I am underestimating it, yes
> that could be. I am not claiming to own the crystal ball. I do think,
> however, that the odds are heavily stacked against emerging markets
> domestic demand to lead the world economy into recovery mode. It's
> simply too small yet, to accomplish that job.
> What is really striking is the magnitude and speed of the sentiment
> shift that has taken place. After almost Armageddon dears we are
> now back to speculations who will lead the next recovery.
> I am more concerned with when this next recovery will start, how
> sustainable it will be once govt. stimulus runs out and how far to
> the upside it can carry and what it could do to unemployment and
> household incomes. If the latter two don't improve substantially,
> any expectation of a sustained recovery is premature. Unless, opf
> course, you regard a real gdp growth of 0-0.5% a 'recovery'

The Dow's Weight in Gold

Correct - but the only sketchiness quotient exists in whether gold is "the world's currency". That is debatable, but it makes a very curious and interesting case as it stands here in Tyler's work.

Any index is only as good as its constituents, but the value of the index is in its collective behavior related to news, economics, etc.


On Apr 16 11:34 AM auto44 wrote:

> The dow is an ever changing small group of stocks but an ounce of
> gold is always an ounce of gold. Comparisons are sketchy at best
> and bear no resemblence to the real increase or decrease in the health
> of any particular dow company or companies.

The Dow's Weight in Gold

You are referencing the relative strength of the Dollar price of the dow versus the dollar price of Gold, and that is a different study altogether.

This chart assumes gold as the currency in which to price the Dow since the denominator is ounces of gold (not gold price).

bigpicture.typepad.com...

Long Term we are now abut the same ratio we were in 1930

On Apr 16 10:51 AM Carlos Lam wrote:

> On Apr 16 09:50 AM TonyCinTX wrote:

The Dow's Weight in Gold

in price, there is truth...

the "market" absorbs all of the wildcards and prices accordingly, then mix in hysterical amounts of fear and greed and you have charts.

Prechter would say that Dow/gold shows how little true wealth has been created since 1929, most of the Dow's returns (Dow/dollar)were driven by inflation and the fractional reserve money creation system.


On Apr 16 08:40 AM yellowhoard wrote:

> Too many wild cards right now to rely on historical charts.

Gold: The Last Cheap Asset Class

Why is it no one talks about IAU? same operating expense but less tracking error to the metal...

Monthly ETF Update by Asset Class

why again do TV honksand clients say that the market is bad? this paints a solid picture that there are plenty of bull markets to invest in...

Gold in Your Portfolio: How and How Much?

UNWPX is a well diversified mutual fund for miners of all types