Still Renting

Is it Time to Jump Back into the Market?

How's that commercial RE bottom, which we are not even close to, gonna impact this? I agree that until the bad news is vetted, calling a bottom is a fools game.

A few major shopping mall bankruptcies/closures cannot help the market.

This is going to be an interesting spring/summer.

History Indicates a Bottom

When Reagan was elected, my brother pointed out that every president that won a presidential election on a year ending in zero (e.g. 1980) died in office.

He didn't.


One should err on the side of caution when using previous "similar on the surface" events to predict the outcome of current events. The devil is in the details, and the subtle fundamental differences.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

2009 Predictions I Hope Are Dead Wrong

I read a Tom Clancy book once where an entire chapter described the explosion of a nuclear bomb, one technical aspect at a time. One chapter devoted to an event that takes a fraction of a second.

I think we are seeing the slow motion collapse of the world as we know it. It hit critical mass last year and we are just watching it in slow motion. The fundamentals support the predictions - or worse. This is not a movie or a book. People act based on motivation.

I will add two things to number six though.

1 As we all know, one of the biggest stresses on marriage is finances. Expect the divorce rate and/or domestic violence to increase.

2. Countries are like people. They can get desperate. It is what gave us Nazi Germany. I believe there is a strong possibility this thing could end like the GD did, with world war. Some try to say this is a good thing because it will "clean house", etc. I agree with them. However, I do also believe that once the house is cleaned it may be hard to put any money into Wall Street if Wall Street glows in the dark.

Also, the US specifically does not have the character it did during the GD. The Waltons we aint.

It is like living in a movie though. Things change very fast. Popcorn futures should be up.

Preview from Europe: Rejected Auto Bailout Tanks Markets

Simple and best solution, still, is chapter 11. And let's be frank here, you cannot be comptetitive with other manufacturers if you pay your people more than those other manufacturers. That is, unless you automate and lay everyone off.

Hey! How about the Brazil thing. They could tool that up with the bailout!

The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 3 of 3)

I've been watching gold drop for a while now. It hit about $704 here a few days ago. I then saw a slow see-saw recovery until today.
www.bloomberg.com/mark...

Scroll down and check it out for yourself. As I type this it is up about $55 for the day.

It was nice while it lasted...

The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 1 of 3)

"The price tag, along with casualties, continued to pile up at a very uncomfortable pace. Quite similar to the war in Iraq today…"

Sorry. You lost me right there. There is no comparison between the two, casualty-wise. And frankly, in many other ways.

Why This Isn't Financial Armageddon

So much to puncture here. I will pick just one, from fairly early in the article: "The first major difference between now and the worst economic period of the 20th century is the level of positive government interventions."

The author seems to be saying, with a straight face, that this is a GOOD THING!

It isn't. And I disagree with pretty much every other position. Isaiah was "negative". So was Jonah. So was Noah. It doesn't mean they were wrong and it doesn't mean one was wrong to ignore their advice.

Sometimes the sky really IS falling, and one would be wise to listen to the advice offered by the source of that information.

Isn't Deflation a Good Thing?

How much cash is being printed doesn't concern me. I don't use hard cash any more. When the bums downtown ask me for "spare change", my response is always the same: Do you take plastic?

Also, I believe it would take quite a while for the presses to print enough hard currency to actually back all the "virtual money" created by the credit bubble, even AFTER it crashes. If this is true, the amount of money being printed is but a drop in the bucket regarding real money supply. I could be off on this though.

Deflation Now; Inflation's Coming

Caray_jim,

Although I really agree with a lot of what you said, some of this stuff just is NOT rocket science. Too many people with a vested interest were caught allowing their own interests cloud what would have otherwise been clear observation.

I, and no small number of experts were warning us - years ago - of exactly what is happening. There is now even the famous video of Barney Franks, Babs Boxer, and others saying Fannie and Freddie are just fine while others were describing what is happening now.

Heck, a guy at Freerepublic bumped one of MY posts from September of 2006 warning that this could become as bad or worse than the Great Depression. It was obvious to me then. So many "cast in concrete" economic laws were being violated that it was plain that, barring the invention of something really helpful, like a DeLorean that could travel through time, everione was buying up tulip bulbs as fast as possible.

This one really is not an "opinion" thing. It was really quite obvious to anyone paying attention. It was like betting on a football game between the New York Jets and your local high school football team.

Obama's First Move on the Economy

CLH,

I completely ignore Godwins law. I just let the reader decide if the shoe fits. If it does, so be it. I was very nervous about the ample use of children in the Obama campaign, but that is peripheral. What really gave me the creeps is, when he really DID quantify or qualify what he meant by change, he sounded eerily Hitlerian. I may be off base, but time will tell. No small number of prominent Americans, at first, thought Hitler would be a great leader and savior of Germany. And don't even get me started on how many Germans felt. Both Hitler and Obama gave us books to see their future vision in their own words, ghostwriters notwithstanding. Maybe Obama's books should be required for reading and, more importantly, analysis, in our public schools, now that he is president-elect.

The warning signs are there, if one can only interpret them correctly.

One thing I will say for sure, if Obama forces the city office cubicle dwellers into the country with pick and shovel to build an autobahn, I'll know something is DEFINITELY up. ;)

Obama's First Move on the Economy

Maybe Obama could send all the cubicle dwellers in the cities out into the country to build our country's "autobahn". Heck, it woked for Hitler. For a time...

Obama's First Move on the Economy

Apparently nobody fully understands the value of INFORMED voters or the danger of loosing too many "uninformed" voters.

I couldn't believe my countrymen were as dumb as to elect that nincompoop, but now that they have, I am investing heavily in popcorn.

It is going to be a VERY interesting ride. Obama will help this as much as FDR helped us out of the depression. The only significant question I have is, will any of the war that gets us out of this one be fought on US soil, or will our major cities just become big glass parking lots before we get the chance...

Friday Market Preview: Was Dow 8,000 the Bottom?

Or an evern sharper decline, FDR style...

On Nov 14 11:52 AM OilyGasMiner wrote:


> Perhaps once the president elect begins to instigate his policies
> we might see a more permanent turnaround.

Paul Krugman + Al Gore = The Way Forward

Well, I am pretty sure this isn't The Onion, but this article has to be satire.

Fear Is Irrelevant

I find it interesting when people compare this collapse to other collapses. There are differing reasons for each. For example. If your car comes to a sudden stop at an intersection one day via hard braking. It is reasonable to assume that one may then apply foot pressure to the gas pedal after stopping and continue on their way.

If, however, one came to a sudden stop at an intersection because they rear-ended a bus, their car may not be so easily be coaxed into regaining speed via simple foot pressure on the gas pedal.

IOW, this ain't 1974. This is the culmination of many decades of bad policies and corruption finally giving us our day of rekoning. We are in very uncharted territory and, truth be told, my strongest concerns are not about money. They are about war. A big one.