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BP's Gift to Investors: Cheap Energy Stocks
I enjoy reading your articles and your comments; I learn quite alot from both. To refresh my memory, I went back to your May article "Seeking Alpha, Finding Zen". As you wrote then, one of your keys lessons is that "Secular bull markets are profitable periods to buy and hold...secular bear markets are only profitable if you are willing to reallocate your assets from fully invested to less invested and back again...that’s why, in so many previous articles, I have recommended re-allocating assets to protect your portfolio...And I'll continue to do so."
So, I carefully created a portfolio that only included the socks you mentioned in the article as long picks ( NRP, PVR, ATLIF.PK, NZT, TBT, TIP, NSL, PFL, VXX, VXZ, GG, KGC, FNNVF.PK, RGLD and SLW) based on the closing prices of each stock that day (May 10). Equal $$$ of each were allotted and a trading commision of $7.95 (which is what I pay) was incurred. No attempt to include dividends was made in the final calculation.
The result: -0.81% return. A money market could perform better during that period. If secular bear markets "amble" and forces the investor to be "nimble" with re-allocation, the end result here at least is losing a little money and making one's broker richer. I for one would rather be happy at slow and steady gains and minimal losses/fees. I'll wait for the secular bear market to end and be happy with bonds and large dividend paying aristocrats.
Aug 19, 2010. 05:22 PM
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