The Physical Vs. Paper Fallacy Begins To Expose Itself [View article]
The Western financial mindset has been formed with a belief in the stability and trust in financial institutions to "do the right thing" and keep us from economic chaos. In this day and age, this notion is extremely naive, especially given the lessons that should have been learned re MFGlobal, PFG, Cyprus and the "bail-in" template. The Eastern mindset, on the other hand, is to view PMs as wealth preservation vehicles and to distrust governments and the fiat they print. Time will tell which mindset is more appropriate. Meanwhile, the 1%, CBs, and many throughout the Mid East and Asia are currently buying gold in major quantities, spurred on by the current discount. Already, among those in the business such as refiners, dealers, and mints, there are rumblings of supply issues which will certainly be exacerbated when all of the mine project abandonings and the curtailment of exploration and drilling impact future production pipelines.
But, according to the author, the above is immaterial as is the obvious counter party risk of "paper" gold. Cognitive dissonance?
The Gold Clock Goes TIC-Tock On SE Asia [View article]
Silver, perhaps the most important metal due to its 1000s of critical uses may be, according to the USGS, the first metal to disappear from the planet, most likely within the next 15-20 years. There are no known existing stockpiles of any magnitude. The Silver Institute disingenuously claims that all silver coins, bars and bullion in possession of investors worldwide can be counted as future industrial supply. But at what price? As the supply scarcity becomes acute, I would expect the gold/silver ratio to eventually reach parity. So in the next few years for most silver investors, the expression "out of my cold dead hands" comes to mind. Just one man's opinion.
Comex Gold Inventories Continue Their Steep Decline [View article]
Billions of Asians will be buying gold long after all who have posted here are gone. The key question for those who are not entirely brain dead is where will the new supply come from? Certainly not from new mega projects (none in over 5 years and 3 such have been recently abandoned due to cost overruns); and certainly not from global production which will decline drastically over the next decade. As for scrap gold, ask any dealer how much gold he is sending to his local refinery these days; you will discover that it less than 10% of the amount just 5 years ago.
Chinese Physical Gold Deliveries Match World Gold Production [View article]
The gold that the Chinese are buying is not from recent production; it is from existing stockpiles in certain vaults in Europe and the US. Those certain vaults are becoming echo chambers, but no audits will ever be authorized ("you have to trust us").
7 years to repatriate 300 tons of German gold? More is handled on a monthly basis in Asia. Gimmee a break!
Country Risk For Mining Jurisdictions - June Edition [View article]
As sovereign debt woes escalate, no mining company will be immune from expropriation of its assets, even in supposedly "democratic" countries. Look no further than the NDAA signed by Obama that gives the executive branch total control over all US assets (even labor) in times of an emergency, however that may be defined. If not outright expropriation, then certainly increased fees, regulations, and taxes which eventually result in accounting losses and in some cases, abandonment of projects.
This is especially true under the Marxist regimes in South America, a continent that products a significant amount of PMs, especially silver. Note Kinross's problems in Ecuador.
Overall, this excellent article certainly indicates that there are serious questions about the future production pipeline to the "free" market for mineral resources, especially from less-than-politically- stable countries. Definitely bullish for PMs.
The Scariest Real Estate Chart In All The Land [View article]
Mortgage applications are one thing; mortgage approvals are another. The universe of those with a 20% down payment, stable employment, and a 700 FICO is decreasing, not increasing. Or are we going back to liars' loans?
Gold Is Speculative But Hardly A Bubble [View article]
Good post; but one nit pick. Although it is true that some 2500 tons are mined each year, only 50% of that production ever reaches the free market. Many mining countries, notably Russia and China, keep all production in-country. Others, such as the Marxist regimes in South America are seeking higher taxes, permitting fees and/or royalty payments. Further, at today's suppressed prices, there are few miners making adequate returns, or even enough cash flow to support the exploration and drilling necessary to keep the future pipeline full. This points to a decline in world global production for at least the next decade; a fact that few analysts explore.
4 Reasons Why Gold Will Continue To Decline [View article]
Billions of people buying gold in the Mid East and Asia could care less about whether or not its price correlates with any other metric. If the author discarded his slide rule and examined the 5000 year history of why these people buy gold, he would reach a far more logical conclusion about factors that influence its value.
To the Asians, gold has always been a means to preserve wealth, especially in times of economic chaos and uncertainty, both of which appear to be at a really high level these days. A true correlative analysis would examine the value (not the price) of gold before, during, and after such events.
Historically, all paper "money" has been debased by one means or another and has died, while gold and silver have remained as a store of wealth; a lesson that few analysts understand.
The Oil Spill Settlement Could Bring BP To Its Knees [View article]
The continuing gush of radiation from Fukushima, and the resulting poisoning of the Pacific Ocean will eventually kill millions or at best reduce life spans for considerably more. The MSM, along with Western governments, is totally complicit in the coverup, even so far as to close down government radiation monitoring sites. This deception would certainly solve the growing pension and entitlement problem; no one will live long enough to collect. Just saying.
Will Gold's Future Price Be $2,154 Or $984? The Equation That Drives Gold's Returns [View article]
The author states as a given that gold demand is declining; the reality is just the opposite. That's one big problem with the author's either/or thesis. The other truth is that, for at least the next decade, regardless of price, there will be a dramatic decrease in global gold production. At any sustained price level near $1000, the majority of miners would totally cease operations. Even now, at $1350+, most are losing money and have shelved projects and curtailed exploration and drilling. That doesn't bode well for the future gold production pipeline, especially since no major mega million ounce discoveries have been made over the last five years. Peak gold, anyone?
Excellent disinformation article; purposeful or not. The first time organic home buyer needed to start a recovery, much less sustain one, earns an ever declining income, and is faced with increased costs for necessities like food and energy. Student debt, low paying service jobs, and Obamacare proposed premiums for and among the 25-40 age cohort is also a significant headwind. Disposable income for this group and the overall middle class is declining. Very few have savings to meet closing criteria. As a result, the number of mortgage aps has declined back to 1999 levels.
Far from being "out of the woods", US housing is still deep in the weeds.
True Unemployment Is 17.6%, Not 7.6% [View article]
The "massaged" employment numbers have been a key metric to foster the "recovery" meme. Whether or not they have any resemblance to reality is almost immaterial. Far more important is the nature of those jobs actually created. A close look at employment categories show that a large amount of new jobs are in the low paying service sector, and too many are part time to accommodate provisions of Obamacare. Better paying employment in manufacturing, construction, mining, etc. is decreasing; the oil services sector may be the only outlier.
The bottom line is that the middle class is incrementally disappearing; the worst case scenario for whatever democracy and freedom still exist in this country.
U.S. And Canadian Mint Sales: All Of Domestic Silver Supply Used Solely For Bullion [View article]
The Chinese are big silver producers; they stopped exporting 3 years ago; every ounce is kept in country for industrial needs, especially military. This is also true in Russia and the former Soviet Bloc countries. The only global production that is readily available is from South America, and Mexico. But with the Marxists in control in the S. American producing countries, (Peru, Argentina, Bolivia) the threat of resource nationalism or expropriation is quite high. The future supply issue, in the face of both increased investment and industrial demand is extremely bullish. BTW, the GSR at 62 is crazy because the GSR of actual mined ore globally is only 9. Based on today's gold price, silver, to be real world consistent, should be at least $150/oz
Gold: Recent Data Points Are Becoming Headwinds [View article]
The sale of paper gold has no relationship to the physical market. The overwhelming demand for physical in the MidEast and Asia in spite of significantly higher premiums attest to this disconnect. Many S/A contributors make this mistake. The truth is that Soros sold GLD and immediately bought calls on gold miners. The other truth is that the vaults are emptying both at GLD and JPM; it seems that major investors are standing for delivery and not rolling over. Moreover, if the author had done some basic research, he would realize that future global production of gold is likely to diminish greatly over the next decade as there have been no major deposits found in the last 5 years, and major mining companies are decreasing, not increasing operations.
Housing Prices Are Being Dangerously Distorted By Big Institutional Money [View article]
When the organic first time buyer is priced out of the market, there can be no sustainable recovery. You should also note that mortgage aps have seen their worst decline since 1999, and industry layoffs are increasing. In no way can this be construed as "good news".
The Physical Vs. Paper Fallacy Begins To Expose Itself [View article]
But, according to the author, the above is immaterial as is the obvious counter party risk of "paper" gold. Cognitive dissonance?
The Gold Clock Goes TIC-Tock On SE Asia [View article]
Comex Gold Inventories Continue Their Steep Decline [View article]
Chinese Physical Gold Deliveries Match World Gold Production [View article]
7 years to repatriate 300 tons of German gold? More is handled on a monthly basis in Asia. Gimmee a break!
Country Risk For Mining Jurisdictions - June Edition [View article]
This is especially true under the Marxist regimes in South America, a continent that products a significant amount of PMs, especially silver. Note Kinross's problems in Ecuador.
Overall, this excellent article certainly indicates that there are serious questions about the future production pipeline to the "free" market for mineral resources, especially from less-than-politically- stable countries. Definitely bullish for PMs.
The Scariest Real Estate Chart In All The Land [View article]
Gold Is Speculative But Hardly A Bubble [View article]
4 Reasons Why Gold Will Continue To Decline [View article]
To the Asians, gold has always been a means to preserve wealth, especially in times of economic chaos and uncertainty, both of which appear to be at a really high level these days. A true correlative analysis would examine the value (not the price) of gold before, during, and after such events.
Historically, all paper "money" has been debased by one means or another and has died, while gold and silver have remained as a store of wealth; a lesson that few analysts understand.
The Oil Spill Settlement Could Bring BP To Its Knees [View article]
Will Gold's Future Price Be $2,154 Or $984? The Equation That Drives Gold's Returns [View article]
U.S. Housing: Out Of The Woods [View article]
Far from being "out of the woods", US housing is still deep in the weeds.
True Unemployment Is 17.6%, Not 7.6% [View article]
The bottom line is that the middle class is incrementally disappearing; the worst case scenario for whatever democracy and freedom still exist in this country.
U.S. And Canadian Mint Sales: All Of Domestic Silver Supply Used Solely For Bullion [View article]
Gold: Recent Data Points Are Becoming Headwinds [View article]
Housing Prices Are Being Dangerously Distorted By Big Institutional Money [View article]