Seeking Alpha

Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Misho ILIEV's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Now Is The Time To Be Fearful [View article]
    "I'm concerned that investors are underestimating big risks to the economy and we have a market that is valued rather aggressively, with limited room for error."

    That may be but what if the Fed and the bulls turn out to be right?

    And what if earnings disappoint? There will be a correction, more QE and probably more other stimulus. We are not in for a financial Armageddon but we are likely close to escape velocity.

    And by the way, there is still loads of fear out there. I hear and read twice as many fearful comments as bullish ones. We are years away from an overheated cycle when fear would be justified.

    And by the way, what causes severe crises is not stock market bubbles. It high leverage and intransparency in the financial markets.
    Sep 28, 2013. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Uptrend Likely To Continue After Breaking Key Resistance Area [View article]
    Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. will
    ask a judge to put to rest antitrust allegations that have
    plagued the companies for years over fees that are paid by U.S.
    merchants to support the credit card networks.

    http://bloom.bg/15lNpuZ
    Sep 21, 2013. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Thing You Should Do Is Buy The 3 New Dow Stocks [View article]
    These are three very good stocks for the long run. Maybe I would stay a bit sceptical about GS but the other two are excellent!
    Sep 18, 2013. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's And S&P: Lawsuits Can Be A Good Thing For The Value Investor [View article]
    Ok, I'll let you if I spot something. The trouble is it's always easier to look back with benefit of the hindsight. At the time when MHFI plunged I was somewhere between greed and fear... And fear took over...
    Sep 16, 2013. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McGraw Hill Financial: Very Good Progress [View article]
    Chris, thanks for the article. I like MHFI too.

    One positive thing for the profitability of the credit rating agencies is the lock-in effect on their clients. For several reasons a credit rating agency rarely loses an issuer as a client.

    I see on the Nasdaq website estimates for a long-term earnings growth of more than 17%:

    http://bit.ly/1e3mEjv

    What do you think is the reason for that?
    Sep 11, 2013. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crystal Ball Is Glowing For McGraw-Hill Financial [View article]
    Bruce, thanks for the nice article. I agree that MHFI looks like a good place to invest (even after the huge run since it dipped earlier this year). The long term looks good for MHFI.

    Also a multiple expansion would be likely, just we need to see some of the uncertainties (e.g. the legal proceedings) get out of the way.

    Overall, still a good opportunity to get in.

    Just wondering why is there such a paucity of analysis on MHFI in SA.
    Sep 4, 2013. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy This Dip In First Solar [View article]
    Does FSLR have a durable competitive advantage?
    Sep 1, 2013. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why More Buybacks Makes Sense [View article]
    Yeah... The thing is, Jobs went public with Apple and it is now owned by its shareholdrs. It makes absolutely no sense to invest in something that gives nothing back... Sad but true!

    Now investors may buy the growth story but only up to a point. Once a company becomes the most profitable one and still gives nothing... what are investors to think about it?

    If Jobs (or his heirs) were to buy it out then I would agree he could do whatever he wants with the cash pile. Possibly have the compnay generate losses for a decade and just squander any amount of cash it has.

    But sorry, Apple is onwed by its shareholders and it will have to give back cash. And its managment will have to be under pressure to innovate and execute with a REASONABLE amount of cash and make more profits...
    Aug 23, 2013. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why More Buybacks Makes Sense [View article]
    Keep the number of shares constant?

    Why 900 million shares? Why not take the count as of December 1980 (accounting for splits)?
    Aug 23, 2013. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3: The Fed's Faustian Bargain For The U.S. Economy [View article]
    Ha-ha! The reality of the economy is "unreal". It happens mostly in people's heads.

    I can imagine that for an engineer a confidence boost through liquidity doesn't make sense.

    Perhaps you should read Krugman's book End This Depression Now! to understand how QE works and why it doesn't really distort the "reality" (within limits, of course).
    Aug 15, 2013. 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    "Then there are those that are committed to it as a profit vehicle. Those would welcome any action to enhance share value."

    I think those are the better part of 99.9% of the shareholders...

    Why do you think Apple charges extortionate price for its products? Not because it likes profits? It just needs USD 3-4 billion for innovation yearly. Maybe a cash pile of USD 20 billions would be good to secure 6 years of innovation. But why 150 billions? To secure the next 40 years?

    Maybe you don't like the current buy back programme. Maybe you reckon Apple should have gotten 200 billions of cash reserves? Or maybe over the next 30 years Apple should have sucked up a couple of trillions of the money in circulation. Just to keep it in a bank... And you think that would have created value?

    You gotta be kidding me!
    Aug 15, 2013. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    "But I don't think Carl Icahn wants to destroy the company. He just wants to wring out greater value from its cash which he believes would cause a P/E expansion."

    Of course he doesn't want to destroy Apple. Steve Jobs was very bad at finance and what he did in that department is not to be continued just because in the innovation area he was a genius.

    Don't think Icahn believes in multiple expansion. When a company buys back its shares the EPS goes up without any multiple expansion.
    Aug 15, 2013. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    "If the position is $1 billion, as widely reported, then the actual money isn't enough to move the needle, but the Icahn presence has lots of cache.

    It's hard to discount the impact the announcement of his position had on stock price when you look at the precise moment of its release and the start of the Apple price surge. To suggest that it was coincidence is hard to agree with."

    One billion is nothing for a company like Apple. The daily trade volume in AAPL shares is 7 billion... I am not saying it's a coincidence, it was a catalyst that sped up something that was already happening.

    "I'm also not certain that Jobs was "a plain moron" in any regard, including capital allocation."

    Yes, maybe not a real moron. Just somebody who doesn't understand finance and was having a strong emotional trauma from past financial experience.

    Do you ever ask yourself why is Apple in this unique position with all that money on the balance sheet? Why not IBM? Why has IBM bought itself many times over in the last 70 years, giving money back to shareholders and constantly pushing the share price up without suffering from a financial collapse?
    Aug 15, 2013. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Money Shorts This Market [View article]
    Whoever was shorting Apple, the guy's comment actually disappered, seems to be almost screwed now as Apple is close to breach the USD 500 level.

    He will likely need money to pay for this short. ;-)
    Aug 14, 2013. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    I don't think that the actual money played that much role in the upswing. Apple was probably about to pop anyway and Icahn just pulled teh trigger.

    Musing about past glory and Steve Jobs is useless. I admire Job's genius in bringing innovation and intimate understanding of what would delight consumers to the point of making them pay an extortionate price for Apple's products.

    But let's face it, Jobs was a plain moron where capital allocation was concerned. So a little common sense with the ugly cash pile is a positive thing.
    Aug 14, 2013. 04:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
575 Comments
366 Likes