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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Visa And MasterCard Remain Ridiculously Expensive With Unjustified Growth Premiums [View article]
    Guys, we already saw Visa above 200. Meanwhile MA was on tear, closing above 715. New all time high.
    Oct 18, 2013. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Genetic Food Engineer A 10 Bagger Or A Bust? [View article]
    CERE is an intriguing speculation at this point. I don't think it is going bust as Monsanto is behind it. It has a huge potential if things go right (could be a bagger indeed), shares are down to its tangible book value, it has very little debt and some recent buyers are the Vanguard Group, Oppenheimer Funds and JP Morgan Investment Management.

    On the field they are making progress with higher and higher crop yield and reduced processing costs - with the possibility soon to become a viable commercial alternative to oil (especially with the relatively high oil prices).

    Interestingly enough the median prognosis of the analysts is that the share price will go up to USD 4 per share - fully 112% upside.

    True, the really great time to buy was when CERE was below USD 1.2 per share... But still it seems a not completely crazy speculation.

    (I am long CERE with a very small position just for fun)
    Oct 15, 2013. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa And MasterCard Remain Ridiculously Expensive With Unjustified Growth Premiums [View article]
    I know you feel. I bought V a bit earlier. But with MasterCard... I was watching MA climb from 380 up to 520 until I swallowed my pride :-)
    Oct 13, 2013. 01:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Love The Coffee, Hate The Stock [View article]
    Nice point, Gavin.

    In fact the Businessweek article's author does not claim to have had an insight into how Starbucks is hedging. They are just guessing that that they did it correctly.

    I am wondering whether the author of the SA article here just misunderstood the article in business week or he obtained some more info on how Starbucks was sourcing its future coffee requirements.
    Oct 13, 2013. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Earnings Just Create A Wells Fargo Buying Opportunity? [View article]
    Guys, have a read:

    http://econ.st/1aAAgxH

    It's a excellent bank and I do believe that the US housing market will continue recovering (as the number of the start ups is well below the long term trend, and while mortgage rates are rising they continue to be well below the long term average). But there are still some concerns about WFC being too big, reaching the limit of deposits it can take, etc.

    (Despite all that I am long WFC too.)
    Oct 13, 2013. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Love The Coffee, Hate The Stock [View article]
    For a short term investor SBUX is dangerous now. I must admit I bought some shares at USD 68 a couple of months ago and I thought I was almost reckless doing that (but then again, why not go a bit wild once in a while...).

    What I don't agree here is about the commoditised product. Starbucks is a very strong brand and I believe it has a durable competitive advantage. I am not excluding some major correction if earnings or revenue disappoint. From its current height the stock can easily go down to 20%. But longer term it's a company with a fairly bight future.

    There is a huge opportunity for it to grow in Asia, for example.

    Certainly playing around with the stock - selling now in the hope of repurchasing later at a lower price - is not a good idea.

    If SBUX falls down 20% or more after the next earnings announcement I will be increasing my position.
    Oct 12, 2013. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa And MasterCard Remain Ridiculously Expensive With Unjustified Growth Premiums [View article]
    By the way, when Visa was at USD 99 it looked almost as ridiculously expensive as it does now. So I didn't buy until it reached USD 117. And then it was just as ridiculously expensive. There was only a small multiple expansion since then.
    Oct 7, 2013. 05:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa And MasterCard Remain Ridiculously Expensive With Unjustified Growth Premiums [View article]
    Hear, hear!

    V and MA might not be the classic value plays (Ben Graham's style). But nonetheless these are extremely good companies to invest. And to call a multiple of 21 or 22 "ridiculously" expensive is quite exaggerated.

    The current multiples are not only reasonable but I would say a bargain for an investor with 5-10 years time horizon. Both these shares could *easily* go up 5x times in the next 10 years.
    Oct 7, 2013. 04:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Be Fearful [View article]
    Well said, James! Jake is a trader and a gambler.
    Sep 29, 2013. 06:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Be Fearful [View article]
    "I'm concerned that investors are underestimating big risks to the economy and we have a market that is valued rather aggressively, with limited room for error."

    That may be but what if the Fed and the bulls turn out to be right?

    And what if earnings disappoint? There will be a correction, more QE and probably more other stimulus. We are not in for a financial Armageddon but we are likely close to escape velocity.

    And by the way, there is still loads of fear out there. I hear and read twice as many fearful comments as bullish ones. We are years away from an overheated cycle when fear would be justified.

    And by the way, what causes severe crises is not stock market bubbles. It high leverage and intransparency in the financial markets.
    Sep 28, 2013. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Uptrend Likely To Continue After Breaking Key Resistance Area [View article]
    Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. will
    ask a judge to put to rest antitrust allegations that have
    plagued the companies for years over fees that are paid by U.S.
    merchants to support the credit card networks.

    http://bloom.bg/15lNpuZ
    Sep 21, 2013. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Thing You Should Do Is Buy The 3 New Dow Stocks [View article]
    These are three very good stocks for the long run. Maybe I would stay a bit sceptical about GS but the other two are excellent!
    Sep 18, 2013. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's And S&P: Lawsuits Can Be A Good Thing For The Value Investor [View article]
    Ok, I'll let you if I spot something. The trouble is it's always easier to look back with benefit of the hindsight. At the time when MHFI plunged I was somewhere between greed and fear... And fear took over...
    Sep 16, 2013. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McGraw Hill Financial: Very Good Progress [View article]
    Chris, thanks for the article. I like MHFI too.

    One positive thing for the profitability of the credit rating agencies is the lock-in effect on their clients. For several reasons a credit rating agency rarely loses an issuer as a client.

    I see on the Nasdaq website estimates for a long-term earnings growth of more than 17%:

    http://bit.ly/1e3mEjv

    What do you think is the reason for that?
    Sep 11, 2013. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crystal Ball Is Glowing For McGraw-Hill Financial [View article]
    Bruce, thanks for the nice article. I agree that MHFI looks like a good place to invest (even after the huge run since it dipped earlier this year). The long term looks good for MHFI.

    Also a multiple expansion would be likely, just we need to see some of the uncertainties (e.g. the legal proceedings) get out of the way.

    Overall, still a good opportunity to get in.

    Just wondering why is there such a paucity of analysis on MHFI in SA.
    Sep 4, 2013. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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