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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Apple: Why More Buybacks Makes Sense [View article]
    Yeah... The thing is, Jobs went public with Apple and it is now owned by its shareholdrs. It makes absolutely no sense to invest in something that gives nothing back... Sad but true!

    Now investors may buy the growth story but only up to a point. Once a company becomes the most profitable one and still gives nothing... what are investors to think about it?

    If Jobs (or his heirs) were to buy it out then I would agree he could do whatever he wants with the cash pile. Possibly have the compnay generate losses for a decade and just squander any amount of cash it has.

    But sorry, Apple is onwed by its shareholders and it will have to give back cash. And its managment will have to be under pressure to innovate and execute with a REASONABLE amount of cash and make more profits...
    Aug 23 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why More Buybacks Makes Sense [View article]
    Keep the number of shares constant?

    Why 900 million shares? Why not take the count as of December 1980 (accounting for splits)?
    Aug 23 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3: The Fed's Faustian Bargain For The U.S. Economy [View article]
    Ha-ha! The reality of the economy is "unreal". It happens mostly in people's heads.

    I can imagine that for an engineer a confidence boost through liquidity doesn't make sense.

    Perhaps you should read Krugman's book End This Depression Now! to understand how QE works and why it doesn't really distort the "reality" (within limits, of course).
    Aug 15 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    "Then there are those that are committed to it as a profit vehicle. Those would welcome any action to enhance share value."

    I think those are the better part of 99.9% of the shareholders...

    Why do you think Apple charges extortionate price for its products? Not because it likes profits? It just needs USD 3-4 billion for innovation yearly. Maybe a cash pile of USD 20 billions would be good to secure 6 years of innovation. But why 150 billions? To secure the next 40 years?

    Maybe you don't like the current buy back programme. Maybe you reckon Apple should have gotten 200 billions of cash reserves? Or maybe over the next 30 years Apple should have sucked up a couple of trillions of the money in circulation. Just to keep it in a bank... And you think that would have created value?

    You gotta be kidding me!
    Aug 15 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    "But I don't think Carl Icahn wants to destroy the company. He just wants to wring out greater value from its cash which he believes would cause a P/E expansion."

    Of course he doesn't want to destroy Apple. Steve Jobs was very bad at finance and what he did in that department is not to be continued just because in the innovation area he was a genius.

    Don't think Icahn believes in multiple expansion. When a company buys back its shares the EPS goes up without any multiple expansion.
    Aug 15 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    "If the position is $1 billion, as widely reported, then the actual money isn't enough to move the needle, but the Icahn presence has lots of cache.

    It's hard to discount the impact the announcement of his position had on stock price when you look at the precise moment of its release and the start of the Apple price surge. To suggest that it was coincidence is hard to agree with."

    One billion is nothing for a company like Apple. The daily trade volume in AAPL shares is 7 billion... I am not saying it's a coincidence, it was a catalyst that sped up something that was already happening.

    "I'm also not certain that Jobs was "a plain moron" in any regard, including capital allocation."

    Yes, maybe not a real moron. Just somebody who doesn't understand finance and was having a strong emotional trauma from past financial experience.

    Do you ever ask yourself why is Apple in this unique position with all that money on the balance sheet? Why not IBM? Why has IBM bought itself many times over in the last 70 years, giving money back to shareholders and constantly pushing the share price up without suffering from a financial collapse?
    Aug 15 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Money Shorts This Market [View article]
    Whoever was shorting Apple, the guy's comment actually disappered, seems to be almost screwed now as Apple is close to breach the USD 500 level.

    He will likely need money to pay for this short. ;-)
    Aug 14 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    I don't think that the actual money played that much role in the upswing. Apple was probably about to pop anyway and Icahn just pulled teh trigger.

    Musing about past glory and Steve Jobs is useless. I admire Job's genius in bringing innovation and intimate understanding of what would delight consumers to the point of making them pay an extortionate price for Apple's products.

    But let's face it, Jobs was a plain moron where capital allocation was concerned. So a little common sense with the ugly cash pile is a positive thing.
    Aug 14 04:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Poised To Make The Shorts Cover? [View article]
    Very interesting to read your technical analysis observations, guys.

    My very first thought was that USD 35-36 would be a nice selling price target because that is about the tangible book value per share.
    Aug 11 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Poised To Make The Shorts Cover? [View article]
    Stock is up 20% in about two days. But it's very volatile. Plus this upside could be because of the shorts covering their positions...

    Aug 9 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Money Shorts This Market [View article]
    Basically I don't like shorting as it involves options trading and too much risk.

    Shorting AAPL at this point is even more risky. Apple is quite cheap, it has a nice buy back programme and the potential to surprise us all. So why take this risk?

    I am long AAPL (though basically skeptical long term).
    Aug 5 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Keeps On Charging Ahead [View article]
    Thanks you too for the article, Alexander!

    In principle I like Visa more as well. My position in Visa is three times as bigger as in MA. But as a risk management strategy having some of both seems a good option.
    Aug 2 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG beats estimates [View news story]
    I join in the go, go AIG! :-) This is like 30% beat on the EPS!

    AIG is at USD 49.60 in the pretrading.
    Aug 2 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Keeps On Charging Ahead [View article]
    I have long thought that it doesn't make much sense to buy MA once you already have Visa since both move in lockstep.

    But today with MA charging ahead and Visa struggling, I was proved wrong and I am happy to have "diversified" into MA.

    Funny how thing come out.
    Aug 1 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Keeps On Charging Ahead [View article]
    I have a dim recollection that one of the senior managers at Visa once said on CNBC they have 3% of Square. But i can't find that video.

    (Must have been April-May 2012, around the time I bough V.)
    Aug 1 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
568 Comments
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