Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Misho ILIEV's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Dividend Analysis Shows Union Pacific Is Still Overvalued [View article]
    > For the R value I'm going to look at the average return of the iShares Dow Jones Transport Avg ETF (NYSEARCA:IYT) over the past five years because Union Pacific accounts for nearly 7.5% of the holding.

    The way you did your math seems to be seriously wrong. You seem to compare the average return on transport stocks with UNP's dividend yield. This makes not sense to me at all. If you want to make dividend analysis focus on dividend yield and don't mix it up with stock return that includes capital gains.

    By the way, in terms of capital gains UNP did quite well in the last five years.

    I think you did well to buy UNP despite the above calculations. To my mind UNP at the current levels is a no-brainer. I recently increased my position and would bought even more at $102 but my rule of disciplined diversification prevents me from overweighting UNP further.
    Jun 6, 2015. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa +4.5% on report of talks to acquire Visa Europe [View news story]
    This is just a tweet... Is there any more solid information on that?
    May 8, 2015. 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Powerful comp lifts Starbucks [View news story]
    Impressive Q2 results.

    SBUX is a nice place to be in. I don't know abut 20 years from now but SBUX can easily double its valuation in the next 5 years.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Genetic Food Engineer A 10 Bagger Or A Bust? [View article]
    Ha-ha, yes, you are right! I'm actaully happy about that since I am out of it (at a loss of course) and this imaginary 650% jump annoyed me a bit ;-)

    At least now I can say it was good I exited earlier.
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Genetic Food Engineer A 10 Bagger Or A Bust? [View article]
    650% up today... But from a very low point reached after the discussion here.
    Apr 9, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Now, I must admit that my comments on Kraft Foods were wrong. It went through the roof since my prediction that it's going nowhere. But... I couldn't have known that Buffet was going to merge it with Heinz.

    As for the tech stocks, Goldman Sachs recommended the sector shortly after my suggestion.

    Even if I turn out to be wrong I will be as wrong Goldman Sachs is wrong.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Here's the news on utilities. They are falling now on the prospects of higher rate:

    US stocks slipped on Tuesday, as the utilities gave up gains earlier in the week and dragged on the wider market.

    Utilities were the worst performing sector ahead of the release on Wednesday of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting.

    The prospect of the Fed raising rates this year has dulled interest in utilities whose dividends and reliable income streams have proved popular against a backdrop of record low interest rates.

    The S&P 500 utilities sector declined 1.1 per cent. Healthcare and energy were the only two sectors on the benchmark index to end the day in the green.

    Overall, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2 per cent to 2,076.32; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed at 17,875.28 and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.1 per cent to 4,910.23.

    The CBOE's Vix volatility index slid 0.1 per cent to 14.73. The index measures expected moves in the S&P 500 over the coming month.

    About 5.7bn shares traded hands on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, 13 per cent lower than the trailing 30 day average.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    > colonies on Mars! I would love for the US to put its defence budget on something like that.

    I am talking about private US projects to conquer the Red Planet.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can U.S. Equity Still Deliver If The Fed Hikes? [View article]
    Why (i) they consider the US robust or (ii) why QE in Europe and Japan stops them?

    (i) Look at the unemployment rate in the US. Look at the job creation in the last 12 months. Look at the cash-rich balance sheet of US companies. Look at the record high consumer confidence.

    (ii) With ultra low rates in the EZ and Japan money will flow into US bonds if yields go higher. That will boost the US dollar and ill hurt US exporters.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB Is Trying To Follow In The Fed's Bubble-Blowing Footsteps [View article]
    > Certainly not $4.5 trillion worth

    Of course not $4 trillion. The Fed is just converting existing assets into its more liquid promises (i.e. reserves at the Fed). It creates liquidity, not good and services.

    On top of that, big chunks of this new money sits as excess reserves at the banks:
    Apr 4, 2015. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Well, I am looking at the tech as a sector. It is probably here to stay with us and deliver new stuff we haven't yet imagined.

    3D printers, SpaceX crafts, colonies on Mars, Tesla cars... I have no idea which one is future. But some of it should come true.
    Mar 22, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Latest Stock Bubble To Go Pop! [View article]
    Well, can't the Fed could hold the purchased assets till maturity?

    And rates are not going to go very high anyway. Just very gradual increase from almost zero to some higher but still very low rates.

    So what is all this panic about?
    Mar 22, 2015. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    > I do believe the next generation is likely to feature narrower margins than the last, however.

    That may be. Also, the historically the tech went through a bubble in 1998-2000, so that must be factored in into that 20yr average 26 p/e.
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Yes, the likes of Kimberly Clark or Kraft Foods. The Utilities' current trailing p/e is 19.9x while their average 20yr average is 15x. Given the super low rates and their average yield at 3.5% these multiples seem justified, for now.

    Technology companies, by contrast, sport a 19.3x trailing p/e, while their 20yr average is 26x. Unless one argues for a secular downward trend on tech's profit growth, this seems an undervalued sector.
    Mar 17, 2015. 06:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Buying high quality stocks with low p/e may be, in the short term, a bad idea if these are high dividend yield stocks. In the last five years they have been considered a proxy for high quality bonds, thus the dead for them was high and therefore their valuation is most stretched relative to other stocks. With the prospect of higher interest rates, the value of these stocks is at risk of falling more then other types of stocks. So beware!

    Of course, long-term (5-10 years) this is undoubtedly a good investment. But given the widespread short-term views and the shake psychology of most investors, it is better to choose something that is likely to outperform in the next 12-24 months.
    Mar 15, 2015. 05:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment