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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Is This Genetic Food Engineer A 10 Bagger Or A Bust? [View article]
    650% up today... But from a very low point reached after the discussion here.
    Apr 9, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Now, I must admit that my comments on Kraft Foods were wrong. It went through the roof since my prediction that it's going nowhere. But... I couldn't have known that Buffet was going to merge it with Heinz.

    As for the tech stocks, Goldman Sachs recommended the sector shortly after my suggestion.

    http://bloom.bg/1IUf5Ix

    Even if I turn out to be wrong I will be as wrong Goldman Sachs is wrong.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Here's the news on utilities. They are falling now on the prospects of higher rate:


    US stocks slipped on Tuesday, as the utilities gave up gains earlier in the week and dragged on the wider market.

    Utilities were the worst performing sector ahead of the release on Wednesday of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting.

    The prospect of the Fed raising rates this year has dulled interest in utilities whose dividends and reliable income streams have proved popular against a backdrop of record low interest rates.

    The S&P 500 utilities sector declined 1.1 per cent. Healthcare and energy were the only two sectors on the benchmark index to end the day in the green.

    Overall, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2 per cent to 2,076.32; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed at 17,875.28 and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.1 per cent to 4,910.23.

    The CBOE's Vix volatility index slid 0.1 per cent to 14.73. The index measures expected moves in the S&P 500 over the coming month.

    About 5.7bn shares traded hands on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, 13 per cent lower than the trailing 30 day average.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    > colonies on Mars! I would love for the US to put its defence budget on something like that.

    I am talking about private US projects to conquer the Red Planet.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can U.S. Equity Still Deliver If The Fed Hikes? [View article]
    Why (i) they consider the US robust or (ii) why QE in Europe and Japan stops them?

    (i) Look at the unemployment rate in the US. Look at the job creation in the last 12 months. Look at the cash-rich balance sheet of US companies. Look at the record high consumer confidence.

    (ii) With ultra low rates in the EZ and Japan money will flow into US bonds if yields go higher. That will boost the US dollar and ill hurt US exporters.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB Is Trying To Follow In The Fed's Bubble-Blowing Footsteps [View article]
    > Certainly not $4.5 trillion worth

    Of course not $4 trillion. The Fed is just converting existing assets into its more liquid promises (i.e. reserves at the Fed). It creates liquidity, not good and services.

    On top of that, big chunks of this new money sits as excess reserves at the banks:

    http://bit.ly/1FtSKjZ
    Apr 4, 2015. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Well, I am looking at the tech as a sector. It is probably here to stay with us and deliver new stuff we haven't yet imagined.

    3D printers, SpaceX crafts, colonies on Mars, Tesla cars... I have no idea which one is future. But some of it should come true.
    Mar 22, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Latest Stock Bubble To Go Pop! [View article]
    Well, can't the Fed could hold the purchased assets till maturity?

    And rates are not going to go very high anyway. Just very gradual increase from almost zero to some higher but still very low rates.

    So what is all this panic about?
    Mar 22, 2015. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    > I do believe the next generation is likely to feature narrower margins than the last, however.

    That may be. Also, the historically the tech went through a bubble in 1998-2000, so that must be factored in into that 20yr average 26 p/e.
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Yes, the likes of Kimberly Clark or Kraft Foods. The Utilities' current trailing p/e is 19.9x while their average 20yr average is 15x. Given the super low rates and their average yield at 3.5% these multiples seem justified, for now.

    Technology companies, by contrast, sport a 19.3x trailing p/e, while their 20yr average is 26x. Unless one argues for a secular downward trend on tech's profit growth, this seems an undervalued sector.
    Mar 17, 2015. 06:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Buying high quality stocks with low p/e may be, in the short term, a bad idea if these are high dividend yield stocks. In the last five years they have been considered a proxy for high quality bonds, thus the dead for them was high and therefore their valuation is most stretched relative to other stocks. With the prospect of higher interest rates, the value of these stocks is at risk of falling more then other types of stocks. So beware!

    Of course, long-term (5-10 years) this is undoubtedly a good investment. But given the widespread short-term views and the shake psychology of most investors, it is better to choose something that is likely to outperform in the next 12-24 months.
    Mar 15, 2015. 05:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline Is The Best Deal In The Market [View article]
    Why would there be a pop after the jobs report? Priceline gets the bulk of its profits outside of the US.

    Plus the positive jobs report means rate hikes, hence a strong dollar, hence smaller profits in dollar terms for a company that earns mainly in euros.
    Mar 8, 2015. 06:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Overdue Major Stock Selloff Still Looms [View article]
    I'd recommend to the author to have a look at JP Morgan's Asset Management Guid to Markets here:

    http://bit.ly/1A93Oi1

    This will give him at least some more credible data about where the US stock market, the S&P 500 companies, and the US economy as a whole stand.

    The picture is much less scary than he portrays it.
    Mar 8, 2015. 03:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    > the Fed and other central banks will never admit that QE and ZIRP are not a sustainable cure for the world's problems

    I don't believe for a second that that is what the Fed thought. QE serves as a boost to the private sector consumption and investment. There is never a guarantee that the private sector will react. It's like pushing on a string.

    The thing is that it has indeed worked. And now there will even be a mild tightening. I don't see how can the Fed admit that it was a mistake when the US did not fall into a Great Depression II, which was quite likely to happen otherwise.
    Mar 5, 2015. 06:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can U.S. Equity Still Deliver If The Fed Hikes? [View article]
    No, actually the Fed considers the economy pretty robust. What stops them from hiking is mostly the QE in Japan and in the Eurozone.
    Mar 1, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
626 Comments
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