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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Bulgaria's Strange Bank Run [View article]
    User 424270, I don't agree.

    You somehow think that fractional reserves is the source of all evil. While in fact factional reserves is just a way of making the monetary system simple. Without fractional reserves banks will not be able to create money. But that role will be taken over by the Central Banks and believe it or not that would make finance hugely more complicated without reducing the risk...

    One thing that people consistently and stubbornly fail to understand is that we live in an inherently risky world, speaking in economics terms (but this is also true more broadly). What I am saying is this: the risk is not generated by the financial system, it is inherent. The financial system just tries to measure and predict the risk and to give it a price.

    It would take me too long to explain my point in more detailed and understandable way. I will try to do that in my blog and post a link.
    Jul 25, 2014. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 21st Century Fox Has Challenges [View article]
    Voting and non-voting shares in 21st Century Fox.
    Jul 23, 2014. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulgaria's Strange Bank Run [View article]
    People don't like risk. That's why they like to have demand deposits. Without demand deposits there will be a much bigger need for paper money that will be sitting in safes. Hence capital allocation will go down the drain.

    In other words, without fractional reserves the system will indeed be badly screwed up.
    Jul 23, 2014. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Fear Of A Market Crash Or A Significant Correction, Here's Why: Part 1 [View article]
    Yes, exactly, it's not all or nothing. And if you have $1 million you wish to invest in stocks, it is not like buy now for the entire amount.

    Sensible investing is diversified and happens incrementally.
    Jul 6, 2014. 04:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulgaria's Strange Bank Run [View article]
    @Svetoslav

    You are missing entirely the point that fractional reserves allows banks to create a huge edifice of 'credit money'. If tomorrow depositors of local currency in Bulgaria asked the banking system to convert that money into euros or dollars peg will break.
    Jul 5, 2014. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulgaria's Strange Bank Run [View article]
    To say that the currency board is a disaster in the making is quite an exaggeration. The Bulgarian National Bank has around EUR 13.5 billion of FX reserves (including gold and SDRs) as compared to EUR 29 billion worth of demand deposits in the local currency held by the depository institutions. Under normal conditions this should be sufficient to backstop any external drain on the system.

    But the peg to the euro certainly creates some stress in the FX market.
    Jul 5, 2014. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulgaria's Strange Bank Run [View article]
    This debate about the property over 'money' is very misguided. One can only have property rights over physical currency printed on paper. All other 'money' is a balance sheet operation of the banks and signifies promises and credit.
    Jul 5, 2014. 10:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron - Speculative Buy [View article]
    Thanks, George.

    I agree CBI could have issued a more detailed reply.

    As for CBI's valuation, it has a current p/e 17 and a forward p/e 14. And still another 16% profit increase is expected in 2015. To me that makes CBI a buy at $70. Okay, perhaps not the most dreaming buy ever but it looks a reasonable thing to do.
    Jun 23, 2014. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron - Speculative Buy [View article]
    You sure CB&I haven't commented on the report? What about this announcement?

    http://on.mktw.net/1nn...

    After all, even if true this too shall come to pass... Waiting until we have absolutely 100% proof that this is not a 'misleading' report means waiting till the share price soars, i.e. it will be too late and buying then will again be risky, from a valuation point of view.
    Jun 20, 2014. 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Union Pacific Is Our Favorite Railroad Idea [View article]
    Thanks, good points there. But I don't think this is conclusive about the US rail because:

    - this accounts only for imports which I believe are a relatively small part of the freight of the US trains, and
    - it accounts only for that part of the import that does not care about the time.

    This excerpt also does not quantify the cost effectiveness of the Panama canal. If the savings are relatively small then it might not divert that much traffic.

    I would say - inconclusive - but a good issue to be explored.
    Jun 18, 2014. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Union Pacific Is Our Favorite Railroad Idea [View article]
    What's your take on that, Palladium?

    I don't see why rail should suffer from Panama. UNP, CSX and NSC connect industrial areas within the US. So in aggregate the Panama canal, even if it shifts some freight from one port to another, would not affect much US rail. If anything, the effect should be positive.
    Jun 16, 2014. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Union Pacific Is Our Favorite Railroad Idea [View article]
    Same here, love it! It's a long-term winner.
    Jun 5, 2014. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FBR survey points to soft Priceline hotel numbers (updated) [View news story]
    Yeah, they have a $1500 price target, right? And talking about hotel count decline... A bit weird...
    Jun 4, 2014. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Just Can't Sell Starbucks, Even With A 9% Drop Year-To-Date [View article]
    >except for late 2013 to now, there is no time period when one would not have made money buying SBUX

    How about November 2006 - November 2008?
    May 31, 2014. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Contenders To Visa's Payment Crown [View article]
    Is Cash Still King in the Age of Mobile Money?

    http://bloom.bg/1k4GApP
    May 29, 2014. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
575 Comments
366 Likes