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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Visa: Is It The Best Long-Term Stock In The Credit Services Sector? [View article]
    Unless some disruptive new technology somehow make plastic redundant, 30 years from now Visa will be trading at arouns $23.000 per share (assuming no splits) ;-)
    Jan 23 05:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sneak Peek At Starbucks Earnings [View article]
    Yes, seems that the stock will calm down.

    Revenue growth is slowing. But the margins are improving. Cost of coffee is at record low. They will probably try to lock that in with some futures hedging.

    Forward guidance is also slightly less optimistic. So maybe some lateral move in the next few months.

    But overall, SBUX should be rising still in the next couple of years.
    Jan 23 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A SodaStream Mea Culpa [View article]
    You are right that SODA is an unpredictable stock. I was lucky enough to somehow realise this and sell well ahead of the plunge. I sold thinking, my God, the stock will rebound now and I will feel like an idiot having sold at the tiniest sign of weakness. But I sold anyway.

    You are not right to make this parallel with Buffett. I am pretty sure if Buffett gets to manage a portfolio of $1 million invested in SODA he would sell at once. Why? Because Buffett, like you and me, would not be able to fathom the economics of this business. So why risk losing even more.

    Now this doesn't mean that I think that SODA has no future. Perhaps the miss was just a tiny blip on the way up and the stock will soar to $100 as Barcalys predicted a few months ago.

    Who knows...

    But when Buffett was making money doing "nothing" he was heavily invested in Coca Cola not SODA.
    Jan 23 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What The Buy Side Expects From Starbucks [View article]
    It's a mixed bag. Beat on earnings - 71 cent per share but a (slight) miss on revenue. Overall not so bad. No sign of a sell off. Share is slightly up in afterhours trading.

    I would say the stock will be fluctuating around 75 for a while. To me this stock is a hold.
    Jan 23 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy-Side Expects Another Quarter Of Growth From Union Pacific [View article]
    > UNP and NSC are soaring. Nice opportunity...

    Soaring and well positioned for more growth this (and next) year.
    Jan 23 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific Reports Best-Ever Quarterly and Full Year Results [View article]
    Nice! I am only disappointed that in pre-market trading shares rose just 1.5%.

    But maybe the rise will come when the big trading starts.
    Jan 23 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Assassinate Your Small Investor Advantage [View article]
    Your thesis makes a lot of sense in principle. In practice the small investor has to be seasoned balance sheet analyst to fully understand a small company.

    A small investor can make huge returns by investing in large caps, e.g. buy MHFI when the case started against the S&P, JPM when the stock nosedived to $31 in 2012, NSC when it hugely dropped. These are rock solid companies that dropped significantly because of exaggerated market reaction.

    Apart from that there is the buy and hold "forever" stocks like UNP, Visa, MasterCard, Adidas, Henkel - the last two are European stocks.
    Jan 21 07:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    Agreed, chopchop.

    I do have a core Visa position since $117. But I bought more and then sold. But I should have kept everything.

    Now I only buy and hold. And Visa is getting a bigger portion of my portfolio.
    Jan 21 04:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Achilles' Heel Of Apple Is Its Recalcitrant High-Margin Policy [View article]
    I wouldn't even call buy backs - financial engineering. It's a very legitimate way of returning cash to shareholders, parting ways with some of them, thus leaving the rest with a bigger share of the (future) pie.

    On the other hand, given that finance is about allocation of resources, what's so bad about financial engineering if it is done well (and no fraud is involved)?
    Jan 20 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    I am also not counting on multiple expansion (it's more that I fear it may happen and deter me from putting more money into Visa). The stock should be rising even if the multiple contacts to 22 because Visa is almost certain to grow its profits (and also do more buy backs).

    Add/trim is something I did do with Visa and I eternally regret it that I played around instead of just holding onto all the shares I bought.
    Jan 20 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    Snoopy1,

    I see your point. Visa cold rise up to the heavens because of the perception that it is a can't-go-wrong stock and then it might fall down. I would join you if Visa's p/e now was around 40. That would be quite a bit exaggerated. but we are not yet there.

    In point of fact, I consider it possible that a Visa bubble may occur. If the US economy gains escape velocity in 2014 and further accelerates in 2015-2016 we might see the "real" value of the stock during a burgeoning economy. If it held such high multiples during the crisis imagine what it might do in a boom time.

    But again, we are not yet there. We just see a rather expensive Visa stock but its valuation is by no means crazy.
    Jan 20 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks For 2014: Something For Everyone: Part 1 [View article]
    I bought some CBI at $64. The company is doing well and is expected to have a solid 27% earnings growth this year. But then the expectation for 2015 is for a slowdown.

    Isn't this stock a bit expensive at this point with a 21 p/e?
    Jan 19 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Plunge: Revenue Story Isn't Enough [View article]
    No, this is about fundamentals. And for SODA they are shaky.

    Low teens and single digits are possible if their profit evaporates. But not because of any chart or float analysis.
    Jan 19 04:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    Visa's p/e ratio at it's IPO was 26.6. At the IPO shares were trading at $42. My first purchase of Visa shares was at $116.9 when the p/e was around 22.

    Also, there simply cannot be a comparison with Apple. Apple has always been and will be a company under intense competitive pressure. Add to that market saturation and anti-shareholder policy. All these are in very stark contrast to Visa.

    Visa can't easily drop a lot because its durable competitive advantage is well understood by investors and they will grab any opportunity to load Visa.

    I am trying to think of what could bring Visa sharply down… A stock market crash, adverse new regulatory environment, serious security breach… The first is a common threat to all shares. The second is not very likely in the US after the recent settlement. The third will surely be fixed if it happened and will only provide a buying opportunity.
    Jan 18 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Plunge: Revenue Story Isn't Enough [View article]
    Thanks, Jay.

    I am also not sure about the exact margin on the CO2. The nominal amount you pay, $10, is not as such indicative of the margin. It can still be 90%, e.g. if the cost for the supplier is $1.

    As for hassle, I agree it is subjective. I still do buy Nespresso "capsules". But then I prefer to drink sparkling mineral water, e.g. San Pellegrino or the the local Spa, and there is a service that brings the packs of bottles right to my office. So it's easier to get bottled water, mineral water at that, than to get a cylinder from Media Markt which is far away (I live in Brussels, Belgium and SodaStream isn't very popular here).
    Jan 18 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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