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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Papa John's: A Great Business That Simply Costs Too Much [View article]
    I wouldn't buy PZZA right now either (also because I bought already at a sub-$41 price). Sure $37 would have been even better.

    What I find unconvincing about your assessment is that you simply assume that margins will be flat. Quite obviously the analysts must be assuming a margin expansion in order to arrive at the average projected 19.71% profit growth for 2015.

    The question is, why do you think that Papa John's can't expand its margins. Just because it hasn't done so in the past? But that is precisely because they had a revenue expansion strategy up until now.

    If you compare PZZA's margins with YUM! Brands you will see that PZZA's are much lower. YUM has more than double net profit margin. McDonald's has 4x net profit margin. Now I am not saying that it follows that PZZA can easily increase its margins. But it appears feasible that they could. I think an analysis on that would be very interesting.
    Dec 4, 2014. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Record Earnings, Whirlpool Seems Vulnerable To Latin American Disruption [View article]
    Despite Michael Blair's warnings I bought WHR at $134 earlier this year and I am sitting on 38.6% capital gains so far.

    Michael seems to be too focused on the unimpressive revenue growth this year. But profit growth is around 20%. Plus the analysts are expecting profit to grow 25% in 2015 and 13% in 2016. Assuming this comes true then WHR is fairly priced with a further potential.

    I don't think Michael Blair has convincingly proven that the analysts are wrong. So I stay bullish on WHR.
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    The price of oil is artificially high because of OPEC. Now that the cartel is becoming dysfunctional we are seeing a more realistic price of oil.

    This is a very political commodity and predicting its move is not really possible. It is perfectly feasible that the decline in oil price will continue for a long time, though. So better, guys, be careful and don't overweight too much the oil companies in your portfolios.

    Here is the case for the secular decline from an FT columnist:

    http://on.ft.com/1pD0s7i
    Nov 30, 2014. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot Oil & Gas Offers Exposure To Best-In-Class Assets [View article]
    What happens now that oil went briefly below $70? There seems to be too much uncertainty where things will go, even in the longer term. One cannot exclude a secular downward trend in fossil fuel prices.
    Nov 30, 2014. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Building A Core Investment Portfolio For The Next 20 Years: Automatic Data Processing [View article]
    Thanks, great suggestion. Peter Lynch used to like this one 30 years ago, I think.

    Will put it under my radar for a pull-back opportunity.
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Why You Should Grasp This Rare Opportunity [View article]
    So you are convinced that quality if EBIT is low? In other words the profit is in fact much lower.
    Aug 23, 2014. 04:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Why You Should Grasp This Rare Opportunity [View article]
    Joel Greenblatt from Gotham Capital also bought CBI in the last three months.
    Aug 20, 2014. 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • priceline.com beats by $0.45, misses on revenue [View news story]
    These seem like solid results. But market is underwhelmed.
    Aug 11, 2014. 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulgaria's Strange Bank Run [View article]
    You are again not following...

    Commodities cannot serve the purpose of modern exchange (read above to see why). So there will alway be swap of credits and whether you call it "money" or "boney" or "toney" is irrelevant. It will still be the same thing that we now call money.

    As for gold it is the biggest con mankind has created. The most useless metal is considered valuable because... people believe it is. It's millennia old myth. I trust IBM and Caterpillar more in delivering true and useful value than a shaman's myths coming down to us from prehistoric times.

    If you like gold - nobody stops you from buying it and "storing value". You can also buy another myth - bitcoin. Good luck with storing value ;-)

    (There's a lot of gold on some of the asteroids and brining it to Earth is technologically not impossible.)
    Aug 6, 2014. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline - An Underpriced Call [View article]
    And generally speaking this is a one-time event. If they meet profit expectations the price will be ticking up above 1250.
    Aug 6, 2014. 04:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline - An Underpriced Call [View article]
    If profit continues to grow fast enough, why not?
    Aug 4, 2014. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline - An Underpriced Call [View article]
    PCLN surged today to almost $1300, I guess on pure expectations for the 11 August announcement.
    Aug 4, 2014. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    The shorter term your horizon, the less knowable the market...
    Aug 4, 2014. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good News From A Bad Friday [View article]
    It must be a lot of luck. Otherwise you should become a fund manager ;-) You will be the greatest ever if you can keep this up :-)

    But anyways, well done!
    Aug 4, 2014. 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good News From A Bad Friday [View article]
    The good news is that in July the US manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in three years. Enjoy your bearishness ;-)

    http://bloom.bg/1ktZvvJ
    Aug 2, 2014. 06:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
619 Comments
406 Likes