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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Bulgaria's Strange Bank Run [View article]
    You are again not following...

    Commodities cannot serve the purpose of modern exchange (read above to see why). So there will alway be swap of credits and whether you call it "money" or "boney" or "toney" is irrelevant. It will still be the same thing that we now call money.

    As for gold it is the biggest con mankind has created. The most useless metal is considered valuable because... people believe it is. It's millennia old myth. I trust IBM and Caterpillar more in delivering true and useful value than a shaman's myths coming down to us from prehistoric times.

    If you like gold - nobody stops you from buying it and "storing value". You can also buy another myth - bitcoin. Good luck with storing value ;-)

    (There's a lot of gold on some of the asteroids and brining it to Earth is technologically not impossible.)
    Aug 6, 2014. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline - An Underpriced Call [View article]
    And generally speaking this is a one-time event. If they meet profit expectations the price will be ticking up above 1250.
    Aug 6, 2014. 04:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline - An Underpriced Call [View article]
    If profit continues to grow fast enough, why not?
    Aug 4, 2014. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline - An Underpriced Call [View article]
    PCLN surged today to almost $1300, I guess on pure expectations for the 11 August announcement.
    Aug 4, 2014. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    The shorter term your horizon, the less knowable the market...
    Aug 4, 2014. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good News From A Bad Friday [View article]
    It must be a lot of luck. Otherwise you should become a fund manager ;-) You will be the greatest ever if you can keep this up :-)

    But anyways, well done!
    Aug 4, 2014. 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good News From A Bad Friday [View article]
    The good news is that in July the US manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in three years. Enjoy your bearishness ;-)

    http://bloom.bg/1ktZvvJ
    Aug 2, 2014. 06:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good News From A Bad Friday [View article]
    Well, her son will learn from his mistakes :-). Like all of use, I suppose :-)
    Aug 2, 2014. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good News From A Bad Friday [View article]
    "My mom went through the 2008-2009 sell off and did just fine holding everything she had."

    She is a real investor, not a speculator chasing a quick buck and trying to time the market.
    Aug 2, 2014. 03:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good News From A Bad Friday [View article]
    You're wrong on that... Forget about QE. Nothing happened when tapering started. The talk of the day is rate hikes.

    http://bit.ly/Xtjwbb
    Aug 2, 2014. 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good News From A Bad Friday [View article]
    Not sure 5% is a correction if it last just for 5-6 weeks only for the market to go higher... I'd say correction is when valuations go down and the long term trend changes visibly for at least 6 month. All the rest is more of a noise.

    Also, I can't understand why would anyone sitting on the last two-three years' of gains would be bothered about a correction...
    Aug 2, 2014. 03:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Bear Lurking? [View article]
    No, no, no! :-)

    QE lowers interest rates and that raises slightly the relative attractiveness of stocks and pushes them slightly up. This effect cannot account for the rise of the S&P 500 in the last 5 years. It was basically driven by outstanding fundamentals and profitability of US companies.

    Now it is true that QE helped companies and banks clean their balance sheet and borrow cheaply and lock in the low interest rates on the bond market. But this effect is there to stay even after QE/low rates is withdrawn.

    It is totally misguided to think that QE (printed money) lifted the market 200% and now it will crash back down to where it was.

    http://bit.ly/Xtjwbb
    Aug 2, 2014. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Bear Lurking? [View article]
    When buying bonds, the Fed is paying with newly expanded deposits at the Fed. In other words the Fed creates bank reserves. This is not in circulation, it is not part of M1. These reserves, in fact trillions of dollars of excess reserves, give the possibility to the commercial banks to create M1 money. But they do so only if there are good leaning opportunities.

    Have a look here for more detailed explanation:

    http://bit.ly/1kbWKPi
    Aug 2, 2014. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Frothy Market Has Nothing To Do With Investing In Individual Stocks [View article]
    >Only 40 trading days before the QE music stops.

    QE stops, interest rates will go up at one point and stock will become relatively less attractive because of that. So a small correction may happen.

    So what?

    Fundamentally the US economy and the US companies are well position for growth. Now profit margins at a historic high and could go down. But with improving job market and consumer and business sentiment that will be offset. So do not worry about the music... There is no danger for long term investors.

    If you are done of those that freak out about QE read this: http://bit.ly/1kbWKPi
    Aug 1, 2014. 08:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Bear Lurking? [View article]
    Also bull on the US here. But...

    1) market may correct (it's a bit extended now)
    2) market can collapse under the weight of self-genrated pessimism

    Fed is pumping optimism (not printing money as some misguided folks think) and relaxing the survival constraint on firms. But enough misunderstanding of monetary policy can turn things badly into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Although this is highly unlikely given the very strong positive fundamentals.
    Jul 31, 2014. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
626 Comments
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