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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    On 30 January Visa will report. With AmEx beating the Street expectations investors apparently expect Visa to do the same. Perhaps there will be a bout of pessimism just before 30th.

    But 220 is highly unlikely.
    Jan 18 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Plunge: Revenue Story Isn't Enough [View article]
    You see, there is a fundamental difference between a soda and a coffee machine.

    People drink coffee which is freshly made and hot. So making your own coffee makes a lot more sense. Soda can be drunk three months after it has been made.

    So…

    There is naturally a market for coffee making machines. Selling soda machines is a lot more difficult.
    Jan 18 06:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Plunge: Revenue Story Isn't Enough [View article]
    Jay, I don't think this is about barriers to entry. Soda is using a tying clause - you can only buy CO cylinders from them (and cylinders bring the higher margin). So there is a lock-in effect and barriers.

    The problem seems to be more fundamental - are consumers convinced that they need this machine. Or is it too much hassle to use it.

    Otherwise I also sympathise with Soda, but since I am not using my soda machine myself I have good reasons to think there's many others like me out there.
    Jan 18 06:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Plunge: Revenue Story Isn't Enough [View article]
    Let's face it, this is quite a risky investment. It's been growing fast recently but now apparently they have to cut deeply their profit margin to keep on going. And profit growth may easily stop even if they sell more.

    From this perspective, and given the uncertainty, even a multiple of 17 seems too high.

    I think Soda can drop to the low 30s and if there is no turnaround next quarter - it can go down even below 30s.
    Jan 18 04:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    Yeah, the rule buy low and sell high is absolutely unsuitable for Visa. It's more like buy at the top and then later buy even higher at the new top. And thus you go for a decade…

    That's how it should be with businesses with outstanding fundamentals.
    Jan 18 03:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    We would be lucky if it drops below 220. Could happen if on 30 January they report a miss. But even then it will be a short-lived blip on the way up.

    I find yesterday's surge quite frustrating as I was considering the day before buying more shares but thought I'd wait for the price to fluctuate from 222 to 220. Silly me!
    Jan 18 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    Thanks, Ozone, so Berkshire must have paid USD 800+ per share for MA?

    Yes, I think the jump is because of AXP. It's funny that AXP went up "only" 3.63% while Visa is up 4.69%.
    Jan 18 03:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    >My opinion only Markets will be choppy for quite a while and we may see a serious clean out at some point

    My opinion - this is not very likely to happen. But 2014 could be a year of "consolidation", meaning the S&P 500 might just stay where it is now.

    As for Visa and MA, they can both easily go up by 20-25% from their current levels, even if the broad market remains flat.
    Jan 16 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    >Concerns there are he has managers who have budgets at Berkshire so everyone uses Buffett's name but not necessarily his decision

    Yes, but it's easy to spot Buffett's deals, they are BIG :-)

    When Ted and Todd invest - it is usually hundreds of millions, when it's Buffett it is billions.
    Jan 16 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Throw The Wells Fargo Baby Out With The Bathwater [View article]
    Thanks, I didn't think throwing WFC. A very solid bank and sure, its record profits are no joke!
    Jan 15 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Undervalued Bank Stocks For The Long Haul [View article]
    Here's a link to a Bloomberg TV video that explains the same point.

    http://bloom.bg/1eKIibz
    Jan 15 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Correction Is Needed In The Price [View article]
    I think the point that Chuck is making is that Buffett invested in MA in 2011.
    Jan 15 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Load Up On SodaStream Especially If It Drops To $30 [View article]
    I actually live in Europe, Belgium more precisely, and I don't know anybody how has a soda machine. In fact, I know only one or two persons who knew ABOUT it (before they saw it in my office).
    Jan 14 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Load Up On SodaStream Especially If It Drops To $30 [View article]
    Also, investors still suspect that SodaStream might be a fad. Thus this might potentially be sign of the beginning of a long slow down and slide in profits. I for one bought a soda machine, used it for three months and then stopped...

    I used to own the stock. Luckily exited at a good profit. Not sure I would take that risk again even below USD 30.
    Jan 14 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Longbow Research's Downgrade Of SodaStream [View article]
    The stock has collapsed today down 22%.

    Luckily I have sold a quarter at 74,5 and the rest at 52.5. I am not happy to be vindicated this way today...

    I think it's difficult at this point to maintain that long-term fundamentals remain unchanged.

    But who knows...
    Jan 13 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
524 Comments
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