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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
    You got me intrigued by this question and so I had a quick look at AMZN in the Financial Times to see their figures.

    Here's the deal.

    1. while AMZN may not have much of profits this year, it's revenue increases at a rate of 34% yearly with no sign of slowing down.

    2. AMZN has almost no serious rivals in many areas of electronic retailing (while AAPL faces fierce competition on all fronts).

    3. analysts are looking at the future potential and for Amazon that looks huge. For AAPL potential looks limited.

    I would think that that explains it. Though I'd never by Amazon at anywhere near the present price levels.
    Jan 14 04:29 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Selling Apple [View article]
    Let's not get TOO silly, though.

    If you bought Apple three years ago you would be 73% up by now. Which is not bad. And incidentally that's a better return than in GOOG for the same period...

    Think about it.

    It amazes me how superficially short term people think.
    Nov 9 06:33 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Do Not Buy This Dip [View article]
    Guys, don't fight the Fed!

    Tapering will be slow and cautious and if there is the slightest sign that assets prices and investment confidence start seriously dipping the Fed will be back in full QE in no time at all.

    So don't be silly. Learn your lesson: Do Not Fight the Fed.
    May 28 05:22 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flying High On Borrowed Wings [View article]
    As the US economy is picking up speed (unemployment slowly dropping, consumer confidence increasing, housing market recovering) the story about how terribly bad QE was is becoming less and less credible.

    The Fed has always been setting the interest rates as lever to boost confidence and borrowing (or to cool down an overheated cycle). And QE is just an extreme extension of the same thing.

    It is also factually incorrect to say that the stock market reacts only to QE. It reacts on a daily basis to the information about the basic economic indicators.
    Apr 2 04:42 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
    Ray Lopez,

    You are quite wrong about what QE does to the US public debt. It doesn't increase it in itself. It just puts more money in the hands of the banks (which then may lend it and boost the economy). Incidentally, QE so far has increased the US' borrowing costs (this is because QE is not so much buying of bonds as it is a lever for boosting confidence; it allows money to stream into riskier assests and away from the safe heaven of the government bonds).

    QE may also trigger some inflation which may help inflate the public and private debt in the US. And since the dollar is the world reserve currency QE allows the US to transfer some of its burdens on the rest of the world, which holds dollars.

    That said, the US seems to be now in a liquidity trap. Zero interest rates didn't work. The Fed moved onto QE, i.e. flushing the economy with liquidity to avoid a debt-deflation trap. But now QE itself is threatening to pose a systemic risk before it has worked it miracle. So the Fed is signalling that QE will be curbed.

    I am afraid the only way out is by:
    - taxing more those trillions that sit and do nothig;
    - more public spending on infrastructure and to a lesser extent on education;
    - cutting unproductive public spending (allowences).
    Feb 21 08:20 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's not easy to make the iPhones. We are falling short of meeting the huge demand," says Foxconn (FXCOF.PK) chairman Terry Gou, suggesting iPhone 5 shortages aren't letting up. Another Foxconn exec made similar remarks last month. Analysts have reported Foxconn has enlisted a division that typically makes non-Apple (AAPL -2.8%) products to help address the shortfall. [View news story]
    Oh, come on guys, not everybody is dying to have an iPhone.

    Two or three years ago I gave up buying iPhone 3 because here in Belgium it was impossible to get one right away. So I just bought a relatively cheap Nokia back then and used it until finally this year I got the iPhone 4S.

    Apple could indeed miss some sales to people like I was a few years ago.
    Nov 7 11:40 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    You can't be serious, Odspan. Buffett is the only one who consistently produced yearly returns in the region of 22-23% over many decades. If it were so easy why haven't the other post WWII investors done the same?

    If you make a simple calculation, you will see that the compounded return with 22% yearly makes USD 1000 into USD 144,000 in 25 years, USD 390,000 in 30 years and 2.8 millions in 40 years.

    Steve Jobs is a visionary without a doubt. Warren is an investor.

    And this is a blog about investing. Period.
    Nov 13 08:07 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone unit sales miss expectations, iPads beat [View news story]
    Not good, not good!

    It's a competitive market, everybody was warned about that. But many people chose to believe that Apple will be out-competing its rivals at all times.

    Well - no!
    Jan 27 04:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa And MasterCard Remain Ridiculously Expensive With Unjustified Growth Premiums [View article]
    By the way, when Visa was at USD 99 it looked almost as ridiculously expensive as it does now. So I didn't buy until it reached USD 117. And then it was just as ridiculously expensive. There was only a small multiple expansion since then.
    Oct 7 05:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Violates His 'Ham Sandwich' Principle With Goldman Deal [View article]
    One of Buffett's principles is - be ready to violate your own principles.

    Buffett used to call CDOs weapons of financial mass destruction but then, as far as I know, at one point he bought some, at a steep discount, of course, and made a lot of money.
    Mar 26 05:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Benjamin Graham's 4 Commandments Of Defensive Dividend Investing [View article]
    Indeed, if one follows these rules the risk is very small. But I would add to these that the investor should have a long-term approach, i.e. at least 3 years time horizon. Otherwise he/she may freak out at the first pull back and make losses.

    Mar 22 07:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Slim Down, Buy When There's Blood In The Streets [View article]
    anil92691,

    I think you are very wrong there. In the smartphone business there is no strong need for standardisation of the OS and therefore no OS will rule supreme. It will stay a highly contestable market.
    Mar 18 06:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
    I wouldn't call this speculative property buying. It was speculative in 2004-2006.

    As long as they buy at a depressed price and rent out profitably this makes for an economically sound investment.

    It's a pity that college graduates can't afford to buy real property. But that is a problem of the widening gap between rich and poor and the stupidity of having free market rules in education.
    Feb 7 02:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
    Apple can learn a lot from IBM. With falling revenue, margins and even at the treat of missing earnings estimates they manage through buy backs to keep the EPS and the share price growing.
    Jan 23 10:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    I don't think that the actual money played that much role in the upswing. Apple was probably about to pop anyway and Icahn just pulled teh trigger.

    Musing about past glory and Steve Jobs is useless. I admire Job's genius in bringing innovation and intimate understanding of what would delight consumers to the point of making them pay an extortionate price for Apple's products.

    But let's face it, Jobs was a plain moron where capital allocation was concerned. So a little common sense with the ugly cash pile is a positive thing.
    Aug 14 04:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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524 Comments
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