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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Starbucks powered by strong traffic; new buyback, and PepsiCo deal on tap [View news story]
    The market fell today 1% so that affects all stocks, even those that just released positive results and outlook. Nothing to worry about when it comes to SBUX. It is still up 1.29% from previous close and the volume of trade (14.5 million stocks) was double its usual. This is all good signs.

    The broad market is worried about many things: global slowdown, falling commodity prices (usually a bad sign for the global economy), prospects of higher interest rates (this bad for stocks in general but good if you own banks and insurance companies), and Greece.

    Disclosure: long SBUX at $34.25 and $35.75. No intention to sell for the next 3 years at least.
    Jul 24, 2015. 06:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific bears brunt of 31% slump in coal revenues [View news story]
    Apparently not much further. Today it's up 0.65% on high volume of trade against the backdrop of the 1% broader market plunge. UNP is a top quality company and I would consider the current levels an excellent entry point for those with longer than 2 years time horizons.

    Disclosure: long UNP at $75.
    Jul 24, 2015. 03:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    If you got back in October of last year then you were smart!

    But generally, too much entering and exiting is expensive because of fees and taxes.

    The oils went down. You can almost always find a sector that went down. The broad market went up though. And we were not specialised in investing in oil. So to me that is not a good enough justification.
    Jul 19, 2015. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    This gentleman sold everything in July of 2014 thinking he was a smart cookie but instead he missed out. Six months from now he is likely than not to still regret that move.
    Jul 17, 2015. 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Analysis Shows Union Pacific Is Still Overvalued [View article]
    > For the R value I'm going to look at the average return of the iShares Dow Jones Transport Avg ETF (NYSEARCA:IYT) over the past five years because Union Pacific accounts for nearly 7.5% of the holding.

    The way you did your math seems to be seriously wrong. You seem to compare the average return on transport stocks with UNP's dividend yield. This makes not sense to me at all. If you want to make dividend analysis focus on dividend yield and don't mix it up with stock return that includes capital gains.

    By the way, in terms of capital gains UNP did quite well in the last five years.

    I think you did well to buy UNP despite the above calculations. To my mind UNP at the current levels is a no-brainer. I recently increased my position and would bought even more at $102 but my rule of disciplined diversification prevents me from overweighting UNP further.
    Jun 6, 2015. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa +4.5% on report of talks to acquire Visa Europe [View news story]
    This is just a tweet... Is there any more solid information on that?
    May 8, 2015. 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Powerful comp lifts Starbucks [View news story]
    Impressive Q2 results.

    SBUX is a nice place to be in. I don't know abut 20 years from now but SBUX can easily double its valuation in the next 5 years.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Genetic Food Engineer A 10 Bagger Or A Bust? [View article]
    Ha-ha, yes, you are right! I'm actaully happy about that since I am out of it (at a loss of course) and this imaginary 650% jump annoyed me a bit ;-)

    At least now I can say it was good I exited earlier.
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Genetic Food Engineer A 10 Bagger Or A Bust? [View article]
    650% up today... But from a very low point reached after the discussion here.
    Apr 9, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Now, I must admit that my comments on Kraft Foods were wrong. It went through the roof since my prediction that it's going nowhere. But... I couldn't have known that Buffet was going to merge it with Heinz.

    As for the tech stocks, Goldman Sachs recommended the sector shortly after my suggestion.

    http://bloom.bg/1IUf5Ix

    Even if I turn out to be wrong I will be as wrong Goldman Sachs is wrong.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Here's the news on utilities. They are falling now on the prospects of higher rate:


    US stocks slipped on Tuesday, as the utilities gave up gains earlier in the week and dragged on the wider market.

    Utilities were the worst performing sector ahead of the release on Wednesday of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting.

    The prospect of the Fed raising rates this year has dulled interest in utilities whose dividends and reliable income streams have proved popular against a backdrop of record low interest rates.

    The S&P 500 utilities sector declined 1.1 per cent. Healthcare and energy were the only two sectors on the benchmark index to end the day in the green.

    Overall, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2 per cent to 2,076.32; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed at 17,875.28 and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.1 per cent to 4,910.23.

    The CBOE's Vix volatility index slid 0.1 per cent to 14.73. The index measures expected moves in the S&P 500 over the coming month.

    About 5.7bn shares traded hands on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, 13 per cent lower than the trailing 30 day average.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    > colonies on Mars! I would love for the US to put its defence budget on something like that.

    I am talking about private US projects to conquer the Red Planet.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can U.S. Equity Still Deliver If The Fed Hikes? [View article]
    Why (i) they consider the US robust or (ii) why QE in Europe and Japan stops them?

    (i) Look at the unemployment rate in the US. Look at the job creation in the last 12 months. Look at the cash-rich balance sheet of US companies. Look at the record high consumer confidence.

    (ii) With ultra low rates in the EZ and Japan money will flow into US bonds if yields go higher. That will boost the US dollar and ill hurt US exporters.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB Is Trying To Follow In The Fed's Bubble-Blowing Footsteps [View article]
    > Certainly not $4.5 trillion worth

    Of course not $4 trillion. The Fed is just converting existing assets into its more liquid promises (i.e. reserves at the Fed). It creates liquidity, not good and services.

    On top of that, big chunks of this new money sits as excess reserves at the banks:

    http://bit.ly/1FtSKjZ
    Apr 4, 2015. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Well, I am looking at the tech as a sector. It is probably here to stay with us and deliver new stuff we haven't yet imagined.

    3D printers, SpaceX crafts, colonies on Mars, Tesla cars... I have no idea which one is future. But some of it should come true.
    Mar 22, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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