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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    "Then there are those that are committed to it as a profit vehicle. Those would welcome any action to enhance share value."

    I think those are the better part of 99.9% of the shareholders...

    Why do you think Apple charges extortionate price for its products? Not because it likes profits? It just needs USD 3-4 billion for innovation yearly. Maybe a cash pile of USD 20 billions would be good to secure 6 years of innovation. But why 150 billions? To secure the next 40 years?

    Maybe you don't like the current buy back programme. Maybe you reckon Apple should have gotten 200 billions of cash reserves? Or maybe over the next 30 years Apple should have sucked up a couple of trillions of the money in circulation. Just to keep it in a bank... And you think that would have created value?

    You gotta be kidding me!
    Aug 15, 2013. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    "But I don't think Carl Icahn wants to destroy the company. He just wants to wring out greater value from its cash which he believes would cause a P/E expansion."

    Of course he doesn't want to destroy Apple. Steve Jobs was very bad at finance and what he did in that department is not to be continued just because in the innovation area he was a genius.

    Don't think Icahn believes in multiple expansion. When a company buys back its shares the EPS goes up without any multiple expansion.
    Aug 15, 2013. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    "If the position is $1 billion, as widely reported, then the actual money isn't enough to move the needle, but the Icahn presence has lots of cache.

    It's hard to discount the impact the announcement of his position had on stock price when you look at the precise moment of its release and the start of the Apple price surge. To suggest that it was coincidence is hard to agree with."

    One billion is nothing for a company like Apple. The daily trade volume in AAPL shares is 7 billion... I am not saying it's a coincidence, it was a catalyst that sped up something that was already happening.

    "I'm also not certain that Jobs was "a plain moron" in any regard, including capital allocation."

    Yes, maybe not a real moron. Just somebody who doesn't understand finance and was having a strong emotional trauma from past financial experience.

    Do you ever ask yourself why is Apple in this unique position with all that money on the balance sheet? Why not IBM? Why has IBM bought itself many times over in the last 70 years, giving money back to shareholders and constantly pushing the share price up without suffering from a financial collapse?
    Aug 15, 2013. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    I don't think that the actual money played that much role in the upswing. Apple was probably about to pop anyway and Icahn just pulled teh trigger.

    Musing about past glory and Steve Jobs is useless. I admire Job's genius in bringing innovation and intimate understanding of what would delight consumers to the point of making them pay an extortionate price for Apple's products.

    But let's face it, Jobs was a plain moron where capital allocation was concerned. So a little common sense with the ugly cash pile is a positive thing.
    Aug 14, 2013. 04:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Can Help You Retire When You Want [View article]
    The main thesis of the artilce is okey but the stock is wrong. Apple is precisely what people close to retirement should not be buying.

    Apple my have a wonderful future but it is far too risky for the risk averse pensioner.
    Jul 1, 2013. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Repurchase Shares? [View article]
    This is a very balanced article.

    I think a $20 billion yearly buy back plan would be the best option for Apple. 20 billion is neither too much nor to insignificant.

    With flat net yearnings they will still be able to replenish their cash hoard and at the same time the stock will steadily be creeping upwards.
    Apr 22, 2013. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    Nice pile of money. But not enough to lift the stock... If revenue and profit continue sliding the stock will slide too.
    Apr 21, 2013. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    Are you also excited by HPQ and DELL's low p/e ratios then?

    HPQ's is even uder 7 so an event more alluring opportunity!
    Apr 21, 2013. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    Buffett is not buying Apple. As he has explained, he doesn't know how to value it.

    Which means that he cannot predict its cashflow ten years from now even approximately.

    You know, in 10 years Apple may be potentially bankrupt.

    Have a watch at this if you have time:

    http://bit.ly/Qrs8Z6
    Apr 20, 2013. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    Zero growth, if it is certain enough, would be great for Apple and would propel its shares upwards of USD 500 per share.

    Problem is the outlook is negative and there is a risk of sliding, potentially for a long time. And that is priced in.
    Apr 20, 2013. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    Apple is far too big to grow. The markets on which it operates are far too competitive. The company is unable to use its cash-pile. It returns too little to investors.

    Now we also have a negative outlook for declining earnings. And this slide could become a lasting one.

    So why are you shocked at the valuation. It just prices in the huge risks.

    And I want to make this clear. I find Apple a cool company and I absolutely love their products, including the iMac with which I am writing this.

    But Apple is a lousy long term investment. If you are holding it now you are gambling, not investing.

    And let me explain this too. Apple has always been a lousy investment. Its future has always been uncertain. It looks great as an investment opportunity (1997-2012) only with the benefit of the hindsight. By that criterion you can find oodles of companies that have been good to invest in for a certain past period. And so what?
    Apr 20, 2013. 04:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It Finally Time To Buy? [View article]
    "I would like to see Apple announce that a significant percentage (let's say 80%+) of free cash flow would be returned to investors in the form of a dividend or a buyback. The current payout is anemic, and the company has more cash than it could ever hope to need in the foreseeable future. Until Apple does something along these lines, it's going to be very hard to convince non-Apple fans that this stock among the thousands of others available is the best investment to be making right now. It's not an income play and it's not a growth stock, so it's stuck in this awkward position of being neither fish nor fowl."

    Totally agree, although, in all fairness, the problem is also how to repatriate the cash that is mostly outside the US.

    As an investment opportunity Apple is just like any other company. It has to give back cash to shareholders either by paying a dividend or through buy backs.

    Basically this is the rationale behind the growth stocks too. They don't give back cash but investors buy them because of the long-term prospect they will start giving back and in huge amounts.

    But still I think there's a great chance Apple will change its ways about its cashpile and the future stream of cash. When that happens the stock will move up.

    To me Apple is the better choice amongst most other tech shares precisely because at these levels it is unlikely to go further down (any time soon).
    Apr 1, 2013. 06:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Slim Down, Buy When There's Blood In The Streets [View article]
    But let's not forget that it's a risky business and Apple is huge, so more difficult to grow fast. That's why AAPL looks ridiculously cheap.
    Mar 19, 2013. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Should Be Looking At Apple's Cash Flow Rather Than Its Profits [View article]
    Well, they were not plain stupid. Apple surprised so many times that it seemed possible they will do outstandingly well again. Practically all analysts were expecting that.

    People became pain complacent and unprepared for the moment of truth. It came as a shock. And people got scared. I got a bit scared myself. Almost sold... :-)
    Mar 18, 2013. 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Slim Down, Buy When There's Blood In The Streets [View article]
    anil92691,

    I think you are very wrong there. In the smartphone business there is no strong need for standardisation of the OS and therefore no OS will rule supreme. It will stay a highly contestable market.
    Mar 18, 2013. 06:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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