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Misho ILIEV

Misho ILIEV
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  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    To me paying 50 cents for a dollar could happen if you buy Apple at about half its book value. :-)
    Nov 28 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    The problem is that you are paying for a big uncertainty, not for a dollar.
    Nov 28 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    Indeed, JasonC, this 100+ billion of cash on their balance sheet doing nothing is a huge misallocation of capital.
    Nov 28 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    Jesus! ACAD 135% up in one day! But if you had that trillion it wouldn't make such a difference as ACAD is a tiny compay. The question is, did you buy it on Monday :-)

    @Bart, I wouldn't pay 1 trillion for Apple. There's plenty of other, much less risky ways of getting 5% return.
    Nov 28 04:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    If anyone of you had 1 trillion dollars would you buy Apple?

    Me - no!
    Nov 27 05:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Expensive At 5x Cash Holdings? [View article]
    Normanbk,

    Your comment is spot on!
    Nov 20 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    5 years ago you couldn't have predicted RIMM's earnings today and the spectacular drop in revue and share price.

    Same thing with Apple.
    Nov 19 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    Mark,

    If you believe in the future of coal why not invest in Norfolk Southern?

    I am skeptical about predicting the future of Apple. But that doesn't exclude the possibility that Apple will continue growing at 20+% for the next 2-3 years. In that case AAPL could reach even $ 1000 and more. It's just that this is highly uncertain.
    Nov 19 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    No Abraxas,

    It will take Buffett about 2-3 hours to read and understand all relevant Apple info in their Annual reports in the last 4-5 years.

    He really can't value it using the discounted cash flow method. Apple's earnings are really unpredictable.
    Nov 19 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    wdchil,

    I agree with David. Even the short term predictability of Apple is questionable. If a stock is long term unpredictable this undermines significantly also its short-term predictability.

    Why? If you hold shares in a company that appears to be there for the long term (like Coke or Walt Diseny) then a short term glitch is less likely to makes investors nervous. They know that they can continue holding and ultimately they will proven right. Also, many other contrarian investors will rush to buy cheap stock that is there "forever".

    That makes those stocks less volatile and more predictable.

    Apple is not amongst them. The short term predictability is a bit of an illusion.

    Sure Apple cannot go to 400 bucks tomorrow. So if that is predictability - then, yes, Apple is predictable...
    Nov 19 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    This is very interesting, Mark.

    Yes, perpetual growth is impossible. But this is too long and slightly philosophical discussion. :-)

    We are assuming that the global economy can grow forever. If that is true then some companies might grow forever too.
    Nov 18 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    Cesc,

    Have look at this:
    http://bit.ly/Qrs8Z6

    It's a lecture given by Buffett. Quite funny but also informative about his philosophy.
    Nov 18 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Institutional Slingshot: Rational Explanation Of Irrational Stock Action [View article]
    The basis for the uncertainty for Apple is that it operates in a highly competitive market and so they can lose their advantage relatively easily. In 1930s one of the biggest car-makers in the US was Studebaker. Where is it now? More recent examples - Nokia, Dell, HP. They are all victims of intense competition.

    We already see that Samsung has a greater market share of the smart phone market. Plus there's so many entrants on the market. That makes it unpredictable. It also depends on innovation and new products. No guarantee that Apple will continue coming up with the best ideas.


    Visa, MasterCard and American Express have been there for decades, they have built an payment processing systems that are very difficult to match by rivals. They have very high profit margins and normally that would have attracted strong competition which would have brought the margins down. But the entrants are few and not really successful. People all over the world tend to have either Visa or MasterCard.

    And now the cashless payments. If the global economy will grow (and we assume that it will/can grow forever - let's ignore the fact that this is plain wrong unless we build colonies on other planets) then payments will be constantly increasing and somebody will have to process them. It doesn't matter which industry will win. It doesn't matter if it will be on a colony on Mars. We are not going back to paper money or gold. There will very likely be Visa and MasterCard on the space stations :-) And Coca Cola too. LOL
    Nov 18 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Institutional Slingshot: Rational Explanation Of Irrational Stock Action [View article]
    It's not a prediction. On the contrary, a refusal to predict what is impossible to predict.

    You are only predicting one year ahead, not ten, let alone 50.
    Nov 18 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    Buffett is an investor. He says that if you cannot value an asset you cannot invest in it.

    But Buffett says you can always gamble. And maybe you will be lucky (maybe not). Do gambling long enough, though, and you will be wiped out in the end.

    This is the Buffett lesson.
    Nov 18 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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