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Econdoc

Econdoc
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  • Initial Jobless Claims: 353K vs. 380K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 386K).  [View news story]
    this is an important numbe and it is a good one.

    E
    Jul 26 10:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inefficient Market Hypothesis [View article]
    market inefficiency is a mirage

    a "stock picker's" market is jus another way to shake fees from the unsuspecting

    alpha is very very hard to achieve - there are probably only about a dozen people out there who have done it with any regularity and even they are still not statistically proven out - by that I mean - you still cannot refute the hypothesis that it was just random luck - not enough data points - look at that guy who beat the S&P for "n" years and then fell to earth (the name escapes me) - over the lifetime - he basically was about even or slightly below the index - if you got in at the start and rode up and down - sadly most investors bought the fund at or near the peak and lost their shirts

    do not delude yourself - look at the facts - 70 to 80% of managers - these are the pros - do not beat the index and if they do in any one year - it is just as likely they will not beat the following year -

    the index is the efficient market - the truth is staring you in the face - this is not an ideological issue - it is pragmatic. unless you have one of the dozen people managing your money you are not getting value for money if you are paying for advice or if you are paying fees to managers.

    I recently read of a portfolio of stocks that is an ING product - it was established over 70 years ago and not changed over that entire time - zero management - it has done very well and beaten pretty well all active managers - this is a set and forget - it was reported in the WSJ - over time companies have been bought, gone BK or split up so the portfolio has changed but the fact is that it has done better than the guys who are breathlessly chasing alpha - what does that tell you?

    so just don't do it. don't chase. for 99% of people the best strategy is to buy indexes, allocate to equities and bonds - avoid costly "alternatives" and free ride on all that sweat and toil.

    E is for Efficient
    Jul 26 02:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators (LL +28%) moves to an all-time high after smashing Q2 expectations and hiking its 2012 forecast. Same-store sales surged 12.4% and increased both traffic and purchase sizes, providing strong boosts to gross and operating margins. The flooring retailer saw continuously strong demand in Q2; "we finished as strong as we started."  [View news story]
    how is this possible?

    E
    Jul 25 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inefficient Market Hypothesis [View article]
    you are making the point against yourself - by publishing this data - these various strategies are now known and therefore are priced out of the security - there are literally millions of eyes and ears focused on the market - not to mention the machines - they don't miss much.

    E
    Jul 25 03:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks are at session lows following the shocking miss in the Richmond Fed Index (chart here), the S&P 500 -0.5%. More from the report: "Backlogs, capacity utilization, and delivery times continued to contract ... Finished goods inventories grew at a much quicker pace ... Manufacturer's optimism regarding future prospects dimmed considerably in July."  [View news story]
    bbro - yes the US should be borrowing - but can you trust them to do the right thing with the cash?

    this crowd will take the money and squander it on teachers who can't teach and various other union featherbedding special interests including public sector employees whose productivity hasn't changed over the past decade and a variety of marginal pet projects in key districts - the only thing they want to create is votes - that's the multiplier they focus on.

    btw - keep government out of energy independence. it has no business in there - the market will take care of that if the signals are right - for example - bite the bullet and tax carbon - increase taxes on gasoline and let the price mechanism take care of things - as for infrastructure - why government - let private sector build it and rent it - look at SpaceX - if NASA was private - it would have lost less lives - spent less and gone further - faster -

    More government is not the answer.

    Obama Must be Defeated.

    E
    Jul 25 03:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Bargain Stocks Ready To Rise With Oil Prices [View article]
    both good picks

    DO is well run and has a strong balance sheet. you need tha in this capital intensive cyclical business

    TOT has been growing its reserves and has more oil proportionately relative to the other majors - it is undervlued

    E
    Jul 22 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt In The Oil And Gas Industry: How Much Is Too Much? [View article]
    depends on the asset base and revenue stream

    where revenue stream is more predctable - through long term contracts or hedging - debt will be higher

    where shale plays are a greater fraction of assets - it should be higher - since this is more of a manufacturing operation than traditional E&P which is more hit and miss.

    E
    Jul 16 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing, Pratt & Whitney and Honeywell are among major companies using 3D printing to make parts for aerospace products and are exploring ways to widen the deployment of the technology. Another use could be for making car parts on spec. 3D printing is still limited, but companies that could benefit include 3D Systems (DDD).  [View news story]
    this is the future - the net big leap in productivity and creativity - and SSYS is the better bet of the listed companies -the recent merger with Objet gives them a great platform

    but the real winner is industry and if you own stocks in these companies you will benefit - when this takes off it will be revolutionary - the materials savings, productivity improvements, the reduction in trnsport costs - all of these add up to large.

    E
    Jul 15 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury market isn't buying the lower jobless claims number either, the 10-year yield blipping higher for a moment before returning back to 1.49%, off 3 bps on the day. The BLS notes "onetime factors" such as a shift in auto plant closings. S&P 500 is back near session lows, -0.8%.  [View news story]
    "Lower jobless claim is normal after 4 years; almost everybody has already been fired."

    that's not how this number works. it is a very good indicator of short term economic health.

    this is a good number but needs to be validated over the next couple weeks.

    E
    Jul 12 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on jobless claims: At 350K, it's the lowest level since March 2008, but the number is likely skewed by seasonal adjustment issues (last week included July 4). Look for a makeup bounce in the print next week. S&P futures are showing no reaction, remaining -0.7%.  [View news story]
    A mid week holiday is very different. We saw this in our business. Volume was off significantly - much more than anticiapated but bouncing back now.

    This number needs to be validated. Moving average is always the one to focus on.

    E
    Jul 12 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy cancels a long-term bond auction scheduled for August 14 thanks to positive development on fiscal receipts - more tax revenue than expected is coming in.  [View news story]
    Italy is running a primary surplus and has been for a while the debt they need is to repay stuff that is rolling over

    the good news is that the hysteria creates opportunity

    Mario Monti saying he won't do another term and Cummins cruelled the market today - both increase future uncertainty

    Cummins was interesting - they see flat revenue - they did not say anything about earnings and raised dividend. it is negative but not as bad as it looked. My GTC spec order was tripped and I picked some up at $85 and will buy more if it drops - very strong company - if there is a downturn the laggards will suffer more

    E
    Jul 11 06:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Bernardino has voted to become the third California city to file for bankruptcy in the last month, after officials reported the city faced an imminent financial crisis. San Bernardino hopes to restructure its finances while in Ch. 9 protection, but a concerned muni bond market may have other plans. (also: Stockton and Mammoth Lakes)  [View news story]
    good one...is that a joke?

    less than 20 defaults out of +3000 issuers

    Mammoth Lakes is due to a $40 mill judgement against it that it has to pay to a developer.

    wake me up when the number hits 300

    E
    Jul 11 05:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A $7 Stock With A 7% Yield And Insider Buying [View article]
    Just better off sticking with LINE. That one works. These others have hair on them.

    E
    Jul 9 03:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Solid Dividend Investment In The Personal Care And Nutrition Sector [View article]
    This one is a winner. Einhorn fiasco was a gift.

    E
    Jul 9 03:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • June Nonfarm Payrolls: +80K vs. consensus +100K, prior +77K (revised from 69K). Unemployment rate 8.2% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.2% previous.  [View news story]
    not divergent - they track each other quite well over time.

    ADP excludes Governnment so when it is contracting - as it is - then ADP will be higher - ADP may be half a step ahead of NFP so it may be telling you what is to come - but overall it is the best predictor and is closer than you think.

    You must remember the error on these numbers is +/- 100,000 or more. These are very blunt instruments. How anyone invests on this basis is beyond me.

    E
    Jul 6 12:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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