Seeking Alpha

Econdoc

Econdoc
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Econdoc's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Jobless Claims Drop And The June ADP Employment Tally Perks Up [View article]
    you are mistaking unemployment and payrolls with weekly jobless claims

    yes payrolls and unemployment rate are lagging indicators but weekly jobless claims and the 4 week moving average thereof are really quite sensitive windows into what is going on

    In the normal economy people are fired for all sorts of reasons unrelated to economic contraction - even in a strongly growing economy this series rarely drops into the lost 300's

    this number needs to be north of 420 to 430 to be signalling contraction - some even say as high as 450

    E
    Jul 5, 2012. 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • June ADP Jobs Report: +176K vs. +136K prior (revised from 133K) and expectations of 95K.  [View news story]
    these numbers are plus minus 100k at least - this number is not different to consensus.

    E
    Jul 5, 2012. 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's 'Trente Glorieuses'? [View article]
    I must say that I also did not have a positive reaction to the "right kind..."

    but the overall message is right...the US is aging more slowly than all other developed and many developing nations and this will enable a higher potential growth rate

    The comments about innovation and the ability of immigrants to bring new skills and capabilities apply across the board. think about it...anyone who takes the trouble to run the traps and come to the US has to have some drive or spark...as an immigrant it is not easy to come to the US

    Several months ago I became a US citizen...49 different nationalities at my naturalization ceremony...completely amazing...diversity is very powerful - e pluribus unum...baby

    The comments about US manufacturing and jobs going overseas are bogus. US manufactures more stuff today than at any time in its history - and about as much as China does - it just does it with a much more productive workforce

    Furthermore companies have global operations - quite often the higher paying more critical jobs are in the US while the lower paying jobs are outside. many companies protect themselves by keeping their IP sensitive and critical functions in the US - access to a global labor pool enables them to compete and have those high paying US jobs. think bout Apple. if you break apart the value add in one of those the vast majority remains in the US - they are not stupid.

    on this July 4th it is important to reflect on the remarkable genesis of the United States...right in the second para of the Declaration are these words...Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness...how many Nations are born with the concept of Happiness a a central pillar...very few...truly remarkable

    have a great 4th.

    btw. English is not my first language. not bad eh?

    E
    Jul 4, 2012. 12:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Great Combination Of Dividend Plays To Consider For Your Portfolio [View article]
    I would agree on MRO

    MRO at these prices is a cheap oily bet on growth or oil supply distruption that pays you while you wait.

    E
    Jul 4, 2012. 05:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In a note titled “Wall Street Proclaims the Death of Equities,” BofA Merrill Lynch strategist Savita Subramanian says the average equity allocation is at 49.3%. This is the first it's been below 50 in nearly 15 years, which suggests that sell-side strategists are now more bearish on equities than they were at any point during the collapse of the tech bubble or the recent financial crisis. For many, including Subramanian, this bearish sentiment is a contrarian sign that a turnaround is near.  [View news story]
    it is the paradox of investing that equities are only worth buying when everyone wants them less and only worth selling when everyone wants them exclusively.

    E
    Jul 4, 2012. 05:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Domestic Equity Value/Growth ETFs: Low Cost And Stellar Performance [View article]
    This is good advice.

    You cannot go wrong owning Vanguard products relative to their peers. I own VBR, VTV, VWO, MGV, VNQ - low cost is always the way to go. Do not listen to the prattle about active management - in this game cheap is better.

    E
    Jul 4, 2012. 05:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Bond ETFs I Consider To Be Cheap Based On Comparable Expense Ratios [View article]
    there is strong link between portfolio performance and minimizing expenses - not overpaying is something that investors can and should control. punish expensive options by not owning them.

    E
    Jul 4, 2012. 05:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 More Stocks Heavily Overvalued When Applying Graham's Number [View article]
    I had the same reaction on FTE...which I own and like because it is cheap

    FTE with a P/B of 1 and PE of 7 - tough to see how that thing could be grossly overvalued.

    You have the formula wrong. You should recalc and change it. so as not to confuse people.

    E
    Jul 4, 2012. 05:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In a note titled “Wall Street Proclaims the Death of Equities,” BofA Merrill Lynch strategist Savita Subramanian says the average equity allocation is at 49.3%. This is the first it's been below 50 in nearly 15 years, which suggests that sell-side strategists are now more bearish on equities than they were at any point during the collapse of the tech bubble or the recent financial crisis. For many, including Subramanian, this bearish sentiment is a contrarian sign that a turnaround is near.  [View news story]
    what wonderful news this is...

    E
    Jul 3, 2012. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navigating The Next 6 Months For The Average Investor [View article]
    the average investor - any investor - should not be worried or focused about the next 6 months - unless they are over 80 or have less than 12 months to live - everyone else - pick 60 months as a more approriate investment horizon.

    E
    Jul 3, 2012. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter 2012: The Beginning Of An Earnings Collapse [View article]
    Neither optimistic or pessimistic.

    I think what I mean is that once something is on the front page of the New York Times or in article like this then it is well in the price. The market is already seeing ahead to a slowdown in Europe and in earnings growth. There is no insight here that has not been endlessly commented on.

    Lehman was Lehman because it was unexpected, scary and large. Having been through that the next thing to have the same effect will need to be like Lehman but moreso. For all the pain in Europe much of the negative is well telegraphed.

    The surprise if and when it comes could be to the upside and since that is not in th eprice your risk reward is better that way.

    It is the opposite of March 2000 - when th emarket was pricing in perfection. That is nowhere near what we expect today.

    That's what I mean

    E
    Jul 2, 2012. 01:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ray Dalio's Primer On Deleveraging [View article]
    Snow guy...you are wrong I've heard Dalio speak and he is a big supporter of the Chairman.

    Bernanke for President.

    E
    Jul 2, 2012. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter 2012: The Beginning Of An Earnings Collapse [View article]
    James you have been predicting the end of days for nigh on 2 years now - markets look ahead they don't look back. You should know this.

    If something is "in print" then its in the print. We all know there is an earnings slowdown and risks in Europe etc. That's why the market is not at 1600 - which is where it should be based on short term bill rates, the 10 year and inflation.

    In effect - you have a 20% correctoin built in - the market anticipates this. Your downside here is reasonably limited - maybe 5 to 8% back to 1250 but your upside to +1600 is 300 points and maybe more.

    So on a risk reward - you have the wrong end of the stick - unless you are 80 years old or more in which case you should not be fooling around with stocks.

    E
    Jul 2, 2012. 09:10 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Billionaire Leon Cooperman's Top 5 Dividend Picks [View article]
    learn to recognize the fat pitch when you see it

    LINE is a fat pitch

    E
    Jun 30, 2012. 04:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Surging Eagle Ford Oil To Outproduce Bakken - 5 Top Companies To Consider [View article]
    when fundamentals change e.g. declining oil price the value drops and the equity is the piece that get's hit - the debt is constant - that's what debt is - an obligation to pay - equity is an option to pay.

    these companies struggle with a lot of debt - the cycle is boom - they load up on assets and debt and then things are not perfect and they have to sell off or bust.

    Newfield is a well run company and has good assets - just a lot of debt to carry in a volatile business like this.

    E
    Jun 28, 2012. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,944 Comments
8,047 Likes