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EyeBelieve

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  • Why Mattel Shareholders Should Be Concerned [View article]
    Any thoughts on Mattel's long term relationship with Disney and movie character licensing?
    Aug 20 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Approaching Retirement And Simplifying My Portfolio [View article]
    Robert--
    Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I do think digging deeper into investors' strategies re. risk and allocation is worth the exercise. Several dividend growth investors in SA say that they're 80, 90, up to 95% invested in equities, so I've asked some of them how they calculate risk. Turns out that some have outside income or pensions or Social Security, or emergency cash reserves not part of their allocation equation. I suspect you may be correct that "many DGI portfolios are overly concentrated… and more risky than they seem." Yet, many of these investors are more diversified than they seem, too.
    Personally, I'd like to see a market correction before committing substantially more cash to my equity allocations. Value is tough to find at these levels. Of course, maybe I'm not looking in the right places. Open to suggestions...
    Aug 17 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Retirement Portfolio Business Plan - Legacy Edition - Part Two [View article]
    Bob--
    Thanks for the detailed reply! Some commentators suggest counting pension and Social Security as bond-like equivalents to a larger asset allocation. For the sake of argument, let's assume that these sources account for exactly half of your current income. In this calculation your 95% equity portfolio becomes a 47.5% allocation in a "virtual portfolio" which includes pension and SS payouts. The point is, you're more diversified than it seems at first look. That "separate emergency allocation" also is a sleep aid! Hearty congrats!
    Aug 17 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Retirement Portfolio Business Plan - Legacy Edition - Part Two [View article]
    Bob--
    Brilliant document! I do, however, have a question re. asset allocation and risk management. You're 95% invested in equities, correct? Does that mean the other 5% is in cash, and if so, is this 5% your emergency allocation? Does your portfolio throw off more than enough in dividends to provide income for you and your family without having to sell positions? Or are you also counting on money from other sources such as pension and Social Security?
    An asset allocation closer to 50% equities, 50% bonds is said to provide over 87% of the total returns with half the risk. In my own case, I'd sleep better at night with a smaller percentage in equities than you, but that's me. Just trying to understand your own thinking here, not change any minds.
    Aug 16 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Same Returns With Half The Risk? [View article]
    Dale--
    Very interesting read. Coincidentally, my asset allocation is not unlike this model, about 32% equities, with much of the balance in CDs, high grade corporate and government bonds. Of course I wish I'd invested more in equities in 08 and 09, but with valuations at current levels I'm just another Scaredy Cat! Since my wife and I are retirees, a low risk scenario similar to the one you've proposed here makes sense. Younger folks with a longer timeline probably should consider a larger equity allocation, don't you think?
    Aug 15 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hasbro, Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Div4--
    Do you think that the dividend is in danger? (I'm long HAS and reluctant to sell.)
    Aug 14 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waste Management's Dividend Is Worth A Look On A Pullback [View article]
    I think of WM as a utility, which I purchased for current income but not necessarily for growth. Bought it when the share price was so low the dividend was over 4%. A pullback to this level would be sweet.
    Aug 14 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter Until They Don't [View article]
    Excellent observation, Dale. Doing like Buffett means investing in great businesses--and also holding extra cash for the next "sale."
    Aug 12 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Some Dividend Champions Are On Sale Right Now [View article]
    Regarded--
    Love the simplicity of your method and the color coded chart! But I tend to agree with Jedi that maybe we should only nibble until the market holds a bigger sale.
    Aug 11 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Apple Juggernaut Should Be In Every Retirement Portfolio Right Now [View article]
    Do they need a janitor?
    :)
    Aug 10 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Approaching Retirement And Simplifying My Portfolio [View article]
    David--
    Two years' cash is a nice comfort zone, probably more than you'd ever need. Most SA bloggers, especially the dividend growth acolytes, would say my cash and bond holdings are extreme, that I'm being too risk averse for my own good--and they're probably correct! Now in the second year of retirement I am slowly spending down cash, slowly growing my equity position by reinvesting dividends, but awaiting a major correction before adding substantially to this allocation. If I'd had sufficient knowledge and the conviction in 2008 I'd be way ahead now. Power up the time machine!
    Aug 10 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Preparing For The Unknowns [View article]
    Regarded--
    While I agree with your main thesis, that dividend growth stocks are a low risk way to grow the nest egg, I'm leery of your five stock portfolio, JNJ, XOM, KO, PG, and WMT. If just one of the five gets into trouble you're looking at a major dent in your retirement. I wouldn't necessarily endorse all the choices in your larger BTDP portfolio, but with over 15 different equities it's sufficiently diversified to offer protection against dividend freezes or cuts.
    My wife and I have about 70 positions, mostly dividend growers, probably too many to achieve significant Alpha, but more than enough to provide diversification and minimize risk. From your point of view I may be over diversified. How did you come to your choices?
    Aug 6 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The ETF Only Portfolio Vs. Buy The Dips Portfolio: Update For July [View article]
    Regarded-- Very intriguing article, and I'm on your side, but five months just isn't long enough to declare victory for active management. Not to assign extra homework, but have you considered backtesting your portfolios to 07 or 08? I'd be curious to know how your strategy would have fared during the run-up to, and in the wake of, the great recession.
    Aug 4 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Frothy Market Has Nothing To Do With Investing In Individual Stocks [View article]
    Chuck & tstab--How long to wait to enter the market? Great question! As a new retiree I'm a conservative investor, somewhat less than 35% in equities at present, looking to get up to 40% but probably no higher. (Backtesting suggests I'm putting no more than @15% of my net asset value at risk should we experience a major correction. That's my personal "sleep well at night" number.) Should I have had a higher allocation two years ago? Absolutely! (Power up the time machine!) Should I now go as high as 50% or 60% or even 90% equities? All in now or income average? I'd advise my 26 year old daughter to jump in now, but as a retiree my time frame's quite different.
    Of course I may be wrong here. Open to suggestions...
    Aug 3 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Approaching Retirement And Simplifying My Portfolio [View article]
    Robert--
    Good article and follow-ups! Studies suggest that asset allocation may be a far more important decision than buying or selling individual equities.
    Do I read correctly that your equity allocation is now 80%? I'm retired and mine is now at about 35%. I intend to raise it up to 40% on pullbacks but probably no higher. My cash is in high quality corporate bonds, iBonds, and laddered CDs. (Maybe I'm being too conservative, but I don't want to risk more than 15-20 percent of my principal, worst case scenario.)
    To the point: Is your 20% cash enough for contingencies? How would a serious market correction impact your lifestyle?
    Aug 2 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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