No More Wishful Thinking: Evidence Solidly Confirms The End Of The Housing Crash [View article]
Birdsnest,
good comment.
I agree that the items you pointed to will be a headwind for one family homes. You omitted one other, namely the risk of getting stuck in a house if you have to move (which is mitigating now). That said, I think that you omitted one big tailwind for housing, namely, inflation, which is running near 2% and will likely go up due to QE3. This will cause many to buy. (if) you can get fannie/freddie mortgages at 3.5% 30 year fixed. if inflation ends up at 2.75 to 3, and with housing at high affordability levels, then many will reluctantly buy to hedge inflation (and the cost in terms of real dollars is near zero). If deflation hits, you can refinance. if inflation spikes up, you are locked in and you are taking advantage of that inflation (with leverage) with your 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Since you have to live somewhere anyway, the risk/reward is better owning in many cases than renting (so long as you dont plan to move in the short term). So even with all the headwinds that you correctly point to, I would expect to see very moderate growth in sales and prices in housing over the next several years. It will only accelerate, if at all, when the economy (or inflation) really picks up.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Q3 Earnings Disappoint? [View article]
I agree with your politics. there is no question that it is all a show and the vast super majority of the politicians will say or do anything to obtain and keep power. they have been selling the country down the river for a long time and will continue to do it as long as the voters let them. Look at what the laissez-faire policies (along with a few other genius moves) did to England, namely, end their power and wealth. (see Correlli Barnett's, The Collapse of British Power).Public-private partnership worked here magnificently and it works elsewhere. But we wont do it anymore. It is scary.
Why There's Less High-Frequency Trading [View article]
Good article.
they are trading less because they have blown out so many of the old human traders that the pickings are getting slim. when they make less money (dont add meaningfully to the bottom line of the big banks) the other powers that be will finally get them outlawed.
An Investor's Guide To Identifying Pyramid Schemes [View article]
I dont think your responded. rather, you sidestepped the issue. Whether MLM's require less money than a non MLM business is not the issue. it is relevant that the FTC is not pursuing herbalife. But that is not dispositive and is exactly the issue that the author raised, to wit, that the FTC is not enforcing the law. For many years Bernie Madoff was able to assuage regulators due to politics and contributions. But that did not make him legitimate. ultimately his ponzi scheme collapsed because the market collapsed and "investors" tried to withdraw their money. In MLMs, the participants likely have small sums at stake so even if the operation is not legitimate, it could go on for a long time.
I have no stock position in any MLM company. I read the article and the topic interested me.
Son Bid Gives Sprint Shareholders Great Shot To Profit [View article]
I only bought when I heard the T-mobile was trying to do the PCS deal. I had thought that mergers would happen. did not when. once I saw that move, I assumed the feeding frenzy would start soon. By some unbelievable miracle there was a high stakes Asian gambler lying in wait. I love those guys. they have huge ba__s. I wish him the best of success.
From Germany, With Love And Tear Gas [View article]
good article and comment.
you are right, but the timing is important.they will stall for time.
ultimately, they need to do a fiscal union with a stronger central government, if they want to save the common currency. if they save the currency, they may need to harmonize labor and tax laws across the countries, otherwise, the wealthy french and others will leave their respective countries. maybe, though, that is ok, since here, we have states that have different labor and tax laws. here, if they do not like the situation, people move. the difference is that here we have a common language and identity whereas they do not. notwithstanding, europeans do move much more so than before the EU.
The politicians will continue to stall for time to accomplish that basic objective or as much is as feasible. if the economy can recover a bit, maybe they can get it done. if the economy continues to tank, the risk of failure increases. It seems the players understand that clearly. right now it looks bad. Things could change. But the economic pressure is what is forcing the push for fiscal union. without it, it could never get done.
I read some time back that currency union was unthinkable in france. Things changed rapidly after the re-unification of germany. then france was worried that they would be left out, so they pushed for currency union. similarly now the economic crisis could make it all actually happen. the leaders are pushing for it.
U.S. foreclosure activity fell to a 5-year low of 180.4K filings in September, according to RealtyTrac. Filings sank 7% from August and 13% Y/Y. The decline is coming from nonjudicial states (ex: CA) where foreclosures have been able to move quickly through the pipeline as opposed to judicial states (ex: FL) where the process remains dammed up. [View news story]
I think they were slow playing it so they would not sell too much inventory at the bottom (and further depress prices). especially when borrowers in possession were paying the taxes and maintaining the property, it was the banks interest to slow play, which they did. now they are getting much better prices for foreclosures (REO) and short sales.
Son Bid Gives Sprint Shareholders Great Shot To Profit [View article]
although there are technical and financial challenges, you would think that the smaller guys need to merge at some point.
DOJ is not letting ATT buy S or these smaller guys as long as there is a democrat in the whitehouse. if romney wins, it is still very difficult but not out of the realm of possibility. The problem is after the ATT/t-mobile fiasco, I dont think they would try again so fast. to spend that money to piss on yourself is a loser.
The Risks Of Residential/Mortgage REITs Are Too Many [View article]
it tends to happen when the mortgage banker does not give a competitve rate to his borrower (over the market). then when the m banker sells it to his freddie mac/fannie mae seller/servicer he gets a premium bc the rate is higher than market.
No More Wishful Thinking: Evidence Solidly Confirms The End Of The Housing Crash [View article]
good comment.
I agree that the items you pointed to will be a headwind for one family homes. You omitted one other, namely the risk of getting stuck in a house if you have to move (which is mitigating now). That said, I think that you omitted one big tailwind for housing, namely, inflation, which is running near 2% and will likely go up due to QE3. This will cause many to buy. (if) you can get fannie/freddie mortgages at 3.5% 30 year fixed. if inflation ends up at 2.75 to 3, and with housing at high affordability levels, then many will reluctantly buy to hedge inflation (and the cost in terms of real dollars is near zero). If deflation hits, you can refinance. if inflation spikes up, you are locked in and you are taking advantage of that inflation (with leverage) with your 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Since you have to live somewhere anyway, the risk/reward is better owning in many cases than renting (so long as you dont plan to move in the short term). So even with all the headwinds that you correctly point to, I would expect to see very moderate growth in sales and prices in housing over the next several years. It will only accelerate, if at all, when the economy (or inflation) really picks up.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Q3 Earnings Disappoint? [View article]
Look at what the laissez-faire policies (along with a few other genius moves) did to England, namely, end their power and wealth. (see Correlli Barnett's, The Collapse of British Power).Public-private partnership worked here magnificently and it works elsewhere. But we wont do it anymore. It is scary.
Why There's Less High-Frequency Trading [View article]
they are trading less because they have blown out so many of the old human traders that the pickings are getting slim. when they make less money (dont add meaningfully to the bottom line of the big banks) the other powers that be will finally get them outlawed.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Q3 Earnings Disappoint? [View article]
you are kidding, right! romney is Mr. off-shore. why would he eliminate his own loopholes?
regardless of what he says, I think the chances that the tax code undergoes any serious change are very low. (he probably will lower taxes).
An Investor's Guide To Identifying Pyramid Schemes [View article]
An Investor's Guide To Identifying Pyramid Schemes [View article]
I have no stock position in any MLM company. I read the article and the topic interested me.
An Investor's Guide To Identifying Pyramid Schemes [View article]
Son Bid Gives Sprint Shareholders Great Shot To Profit [View article]
Profiting From QE3: Spotting The Mistakes [View article]
http://nyti.ms/VUQ0HN
From Germany, With Love And Tear Gas [View article]
you are right, but the timing is important.they will stall for time.
ultimately, they need to do a fiscal union with a stronger central government, if they want to save the common currency.
if they save the currency, they may need to harmonize labor and tax laws across the countries, otherwise, the wealthy french and others will leave their respective countries. maybe, though, that is ok, since here, we have states that have different labor and tax laws. here, if they do not like the situation, people move. the difference is that here we have a common language and identity whereas they do not. notwithstanding, europeans do move much more so than before the EU.
The politicians will continue to stall for time to accomplish that basic objective or as much is as feasible. if the economy can recover a bit, maybe they can get it done. if the economy continues to tank, the risk of failure increases. It seems the players understand that clearly. right now it looks bad. Things could change. But the economic pressure is what is forcing the push for fiscal union. without it, it could never get done.
I read some time back that currency union was unthinkable in france. Things changed rapidly after the re-unification of germany. then france was worried that they would be left out, so they pushed for currency union. similarly now the economic crisis could make it all actually happen. the leaders are pushing for it.
U.S. foreclosure activity fell to a 5-year low of 180.4K filings in September, according to RealtyTrac. Filings sank 7% from August and 13% Y/Y. The decline is coming from nonjudicial states (ex: CA) where foreclosures have been able to move quickly through the pipeline as opposed to judicial states (ex: FL) where the process remains dammed up. [View news story]
Son Bid Gives Sprint Shareholders Great Shot To Profit [View article]
DOJ is not letting ATT buy S or these smaller guys as long as there is a democrat in the whitehouse. if romney wins, it is still very difficult but not out of the realm of possibility. The problem is after the ATT/t-mobile fiasco, I dont think they would try again so fast. to spend that money to piss on yourself is a loser.
Hotel REITs: Particularly Sensitive To Economic Concerns [View article]
good comment.
who else do you like in the management side?
Son Bid Gives Sprint Shareholders Great Shot To Profit [View article]
The Risks Of Residential/Mortgage REITs Are Too Many [View article]