Seeking Alpha

daro

daro
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View daro's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Sense And Nonsense About Climate Change. What Do Investors Need To Know? [View article]
    I agree. if sea levels rise, or more hurricane sandys come, the taxpayer will pay, so lets buy the insurance. it will be cheaper.
    Jan 10 01:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sense And Nonsense About Climate Change. What Do Investors Need To Know? [View article]
    The author wrote:
    "climate change mitigation would likely impose moderate, but manageable costs on the global macroeconomy."

    That is true. But the issue is who is going to pay for those costs.
    Jan 9 11:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras: A Long-Time Bear Turns Optimistic [View article]
    the politicians are stealing the tax money so they tell PBR to keep prices lower so they can keep stealing. This scenario cannot last too long before PBR gets seriously hurt. I suspect it may stop only then. then I would take a flyer.
    Jan 6 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Are Earnings Hopes Too High? [View article]
    I enjoyed the "sold out bull". those are the ones who are the most "pessimistic" bc they sold out. they have an emotional need to get everyone else on board.

    I was a touch confused about europe. while political fears are down right now which is good, economically, it is not so good. car sales fell 20% in france (and in spain) which has the look of a serious recession there. the connection between economics and politics is strong. the weak economy will affect european politics. it just may take a little more time before the effects manifest themselves.

    On the bright side, car sales here were very good and give the impression that businesses and consumers are starting to spend more. and as I have consistently said, housing has done and will do reasonably well. these things are helpful.

    However, since european earnings are a big part of stock earnings here, I would expect that part of earnings to be under pressure (and will offset our decent earnings).

    also, the debt ceiling issue is not trivial. while the deal done on the cliff is ok (as far as it went), the politicians pushed off the hard part, namely, what the spending cuts will be. if there is no deal on that, we are facing a government shut down in 2 1/2 to 3 months due to the debt ceiling limit. While I am sure these guys will ultimately try to get something done bc they are under intense pressure, from a market risk perspective, we are back in the same position we were in before the cliff. maybe worse bc there are now less things to negotiate over (taxes are done unless they revisit them--possible but unlikely) and we are at a higher price level in the market. I suspect we may see a hangover selloff soon due to this reality.
    Jan 6 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Early Thoughts On The Fiscal Cliff Deal [View article]
    since there was no deal on the debt ceiling issue yet, we will likely see large spending reductions demanded by the house republicans in exchange for the debt ceiling increase. The republicans view it as their ace in the hole, while obama sees it as a way to focus the publics attention on the republicans demand for large spending cuts. it will be interesting to watch this play out (and at least our taxes have not exploded through the roof in the meantime).
    Jan 2 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras: A Long-Time Bear Turns Optimistic [View article]
    as I write this I am in brazil and gasoline is selling at about 6 dollars to the gallon (the tax component is super high). in local currency that is 3 reals to the liter. if petrobras raises prices, the impact on consumption (as well as the economy) will likely be significant as people here cannot afford these prices. PBR will do better, but its hard to see the economy taking off. in fact, with the tax policies of the government, I can only see the economy going one way, namley, south. the world cup will not help.
    Jan 2 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Lies Beyond The Cliff? [View article]
    at the end of the day,some of the tea party people are just not likely to negotiate much and I am not sure boehner is going to finish a deal without them. regardless I think it is in boehner´s interest to go over the deadline to try to get a better deal with obama. the main issue is the tax rates for people over 250,000 per year in income, (plus cap gains and dividends). it does not appear that obama has moved too much yet. I think obama will give up more in the end with the pressure on him to get something finished. so I suspect a deal, if done, will not get done until at least a few weeks into the new year.
    Dec 30 08:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Lies Beyond The Cliff? [View article]
    clinton was considered the anti-christ back then (by republicans). now he is considered a hall of famer by them?
    Dec 30 08:26 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (Fiscal) Cliff Notes [View article]
    Jeff,

    nice article. good points.
    Dec 14 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (Fiscal) Cliff Notes [View article]
    I thought the same way before, but some of the republicans are ackowledging the stupidity of it and are saying that they are going to do what is best for the country. many are downplaying the significance of the pledge so there is a non trivial chance for a deal before the new year.

    I wonder what is being discussed about capital gains and dividend rates and where that will end up. I think that is a big issue, which is getting little attention in the media.
    Dec 14 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Real Estate Bubble? [View article]
    that is only for 1-4 family houses under FHA.
    Dec 5 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Real Estate Bubble? [View article]
    DNP,

    tack is right, in commercial deals, banks are requiring very large down payments (well over 25%). During the bubble, even on the commercial side, there were lenders giving 99% financing (lehman was one large example). This pushed up prices and created risk of a large price reduction. the risk picture now is totally different.

    I am seeing prices increases on residential and commercial real estate because rents are strong, vacancy is low and interest rates are low.
    Dec 5 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bull Market In Bad Predictions [View article]
    jeff,

    Hope you had a nice few days off. Happy holidays!

    The rhetoric about the fiscal cliff coming out of DC is not a positive (looks like they are starting to dig in). But the chances that they will do nothing, are low, even if it is after the first.

    http://n.pr/QHoFXu
    Dec 5 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bull Market In Bad Predictions [View article]
    she is pompous (I am not sure why) and nauseating.
    Dec 5 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Under-Appreciated GDP Facts [View article]
    I am not sure we have the kind of dominance in technology that we used to have. In fact, we dont. our education system is falling apart and many dont get educated (despite spending a fortune on it). this will continue to be a problem going forward. same could said for health care. we spend a lot and get terrible results. this will also be a problem for the economy here.
    Nov 30 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,530 Comments
1,262 Likes