Market Outlook 2015-2045 - Men Vs. Machines [View article]
@ Nolesince87 -
> "will be a greater and greater class disparity between "the have*s" and "the have-nots", in accordance with the principles of capitalism... "
This is not a return to principles of capitalism, but a return to FEUDALISM. Right now, 4 heirs to the Walmart fortune own more wealth than the bottom 40% (120MM people!!) in the US. They live in seclusion, private estates with private security forces and private utilities, etc. The court of Louis XVI did not live lives so divorced from their subjects.
> "Human minds are capable of far greater things than menial tasks so we should not mourn the loss of such jobs."
SOME are, most certainly are not. No matter how much training you invest in many of us, we can't all equal Albert Einstein. It's like trying to teach a pig to sing.
The era of using work to allocate consumption is ending. What will replace it? I coudn't fathom. But the proposition that in the wealthiest nation on earth that there are many who don't have an adequate food supply and about 1/6 with no access to comprehensive healthcare is all I need to know to know that the system we now have is HORRIBLY broken.
We, as a nation, can afford to feed, house, and care for all of us, even the least among us. No one would be diminished by this. Unless, of course, you measure yourself by the misery in which you force those below you to live. I, for one, don't.
Market Outlook 2015-2045 - Men Vs. Machines [View article]
Why so worried about robots? The line between them, and good 'ol automated manufacturing (transfer lines, CNC machining, etc) is blurry and all falls under the heading of automation - which has been going on for about 400 years, ever since the first tinkerer figured out how to connect build a windmill and connect it to a bucket lift, thus automating the pumping of water out of the polders in Denmark.
Computers, though, connected to machinery, and now you're talking real job losses and its not just in manufacturing. In fact, the dominant job losses due to IT technology aren't even in the manufacturing sector.
How many bank tellers have been replaced by ATM machines, how many 10 key operators have been replaced by computers with vision software, how many bookkeepers have been replaced by PC's with accounting software, how many switchboard operators have been replaced by automated 'phone tree' systems, how many typesetters have been replaced by desktop publishing, how many press operators have been replaced by photocopiers, how many retail personell have been replaced by self-checkout lanes?
Tens of millions, and none of these are considered "manufacturing".
If anything, manufacturing and construction are more resistant to computerized automation than some others.
Eventually, every repetitive task will be automated. Only those capable of creative thought, or those who perform unique customized services, will find work. This is bad news, of course, for the majority of people, most of whom lack the patience, discipline, or genetic luck to succeed in creative endeavors.
And don't ever mention DaVinci surgical systems to MD's.
Putting The 'Collapse' In Japanese Government Bonds In Perspective [View article]
-bfstrog:
Let's engage in a little thought experiment:
What happens when yields START to rise?
Several things: First, investors start to move towards bonds to capitalize on those higher rates, reducing investment and slowing economic growth (the reverse of this effect is what the US Fed is aiming for with QE - driving investors away from bonds). Slowing growth and lower investment means diminishing corporate revenue, lower employment, and a recession. A recession drives people out of risk assets and back into "safe havens" - bonds. So, there is a built in stabilizing mechanism, both here and in Japan.
Paul Volker artificially raised rates to induce a recession and break an inflationary cycle. The total outstanding debt was small, so the rate increase required was quite large. The more debt is outstanding, the smaller the rate rise needed to induce recession and bring rates back down.
Chart the US 10 year rate since 1980 and overlay that chart with US recessions. Recessions are always preceded by a rise in nominal rates. The rate level required to trigger recession is lower each time. US 10 year rates at 4% would do the trick now, and thus, rates won't have an opportunity to pass 4% for long at all. The threshhold level in Japan, becuase they have much higher outstanding debt, is much lower.
The Obama Administration's Natural Gas Policy Is Tragically Misguided [View article]
That methane, locked in frozen methane hydrates, was mostly laid down while the earth's surface was inhospitable to life, with an atmosphere of mostly CO2 and no free O2.
There's also plenty of methane locked in permafrost in the artic. Once that permafrost melts, and all of that methane (a much more powerful GHG than CO2) is released the warming process will really get rolling.
It was only after the acretion of massive amounts of carbon (in the form of hydrocarbons) into the earth's crust did the earth develop an oxygen rich atmosphere capable of supporting life.
We seem determined to find and burn every molecule of hydrocarbons currently deposited in the earth's crust, thus reversing the process that made the earth hospitable to life.
There Are Even Bigger Problems In The Reinhart And Rogoff Thinking [View article]
At one time, it was deened intuitively obvious to the entire world, it's political and religious leaders, and the entire scientific community that the earth was flat and that the sun, moon, and stars revolved around it.
It was equally obvious, intuitively, that heavier objects fell faster than lighter objects.
Obvious, as well, that man cannot influence the earth's climate and that evolution is impossible.
Intuition has its place, the horse track is one, but science is often counter to intuition.
What China Should Do About The Gold Crash [View article]
Tony-
China has been dealt a bad hand - huge population, poor water supply, few natural resources - and is doing remarkable things in a short period of time.
India, with similar population and resources, who never experienced totalitarian communism, and who escaped British rule almost 70 years ago, has done far less.
In the first 70 years or so after independence, the US itself was a 'copycat' nation. We shamelessly duplicated whatever was brought here from the continent - furniture, architecture, technology, etc. It wasn't until we produced our first international super-star (Samuel Clemens aka Mark Twain) that we suddenly developed an interest in protecting intellectual property. Before that, we were shamless copyists. Charles Dickens refused to tour in America because his books were being printed (pirated) and sold here without his receiving any royalties.
China and it's people should be proud of how far they've come in such a short period.
And I wish the goldbugs weren't so dismissive of any critique that their horde might not be worth as much, post crash, as they think.
As it happens, at any given time, my machine shop has in inventory +/- $50,000 worth of cutting tools (end mills, drills, taps, etc) and materials (aluminum, alloy steel, tool steels, brass, bronze, etc).
Were the economy to completely collapse and the source of those items no longer be available, I would expect to see on the order of 10 to 100 fold appreciation in their value. The amount of gold above ground won't change at all. Relative to each other, which do think will experience greater appreciation.
And, in the mean time, I operate my business using those assets.
You've hit the nail exactly on the head. Hyperinflations occur NOT because of monetary debasement (sorry, Milton Friedman) but because there is NOTHING to buy with your money, fiat or otherwise. In mining camps in the California goldrush fresh eggs were exchanged for gold in equal weight.
If there is an apocolypse, those who horde gold may find it far harder to purchase with it, than with something with intrinsic utility - things like hardware, hand tools, edged weapons, ammuntion, BOOTS, farm implements, or SEEDS. If one wanted to insure against complete economic collapse, fill a few 55 gallon drums with common hardware, saw blades, hammers, axe heads, etc. then top them up with heavy oil or grease and bury them in the backyard - this could be done for the price of a very few ounces of gold. On top of that, fill your attic with military surplus boots. You would find yourself very wealthy with easily exchanged and badly needed trade items if TSHTF.
But in reality, it won't ever be a sudden collapse a la "The Road Warrior". It will be a slow motion decay into anarchy. It took hundreds of years for the Western Roman Empire to collapse, and hundreds more after that until the fall of Constantinople. Even in Somalia, 20 years without a functioning government, and there are still auto repair businesses, coffee shops, restaraunts, and markets. It's chaotic, but it's not armageddon.
Market Outlook 2015-2045 - Men Vs. Machines [View article]
> "will be a greater and greater class disparity between "the have*s" and "the have-nots", in accordance with the principles of capitalism... "
This is not a return to principles of capitalism, but a return to FEUDALISM. Right now, 4 heirs to the Walmart fortune own more wealth than the bottom 40% (120MM people!!) in the US. They live in seclusion, private estates with private security forces and private utilities, etc. The court of Louis XVI did not live lives so divorced from their subjects.
> "Human minds are capable of far greater things than menial tasks so we should not mourn the loss of such jobs."
SOME are, most certainly are not. No matter how much training you invest in many of us, we can't all equal Albert Einstein. It's like trying to teach a pig to sing.
The era of using work to allocate consumption is ending. What will replace it? I coudn't fathom. But the proposition that in the wealthiest nation on earth that there are many who don't have an adequate food supply and about 1/6 with no access to comprehensive healthcare is all I need to know to know that the system we now have is HORRIBLY broken.
We, as a nation, can afford to feed, house, and care for all of us, even the least among us. No one would be diminished by this. Unless, of course, you measure yourself by the misery in which you force those below you to live. I, for one, don't.
Market Outlook 2015-2045 - Men Vs. Machines [View article]
How the Fed Could Fix The Economy -- And Why It Hasn't [View article]
http://bit.ly/I2o5yb
Market Outlook 2015-2045 - Men Vs. Machines [View article]
Computers, though, connected to machinery, and now you're talking real job losses and its not just in manufacturing. In fact, the dominant job losses due to IT technology aren't even in the manufacturing sector.
How many bank tellers have been replaced by ATM machines, how many 10 key operators have been replaced by computers with vision software, how many bookkeepers have been replaced by PC's with accounting software, how many switchboard operators have been replaced by automated 'phone tree' systems, how many typesetters have been replaced by desktop publishing, how many press operators have been replaced by photocopiers, how many retail personell have been replaced by self-checkout lanes?
Tens of millions, and none of these are considered "manufacturing".
If anything, manufacturing and construction are more resistant to computerized automation than some others.
Eventually, every repetitive task will be automated. Only those capable of creative thought, or those who perform unique customized services, will find work. This is bad news, of course, for the majority of people, most of whom lack the patience, discipline, or genetic luck to succeed in creative endeavors.
And don't ever mention DaVinci surgical systems to MD's.
Putting The 'Collapse' In Japanese Government Bonds In Perspective [View article]
Let's engage in a little thought experiment:
What happens when yields START to rise?
Several things: First, investors start to move towards bonds to capitalize on those higher rates, reducing investment and slowing economic growth (the reverse of this effect is what the US Fed is aiming for with QE - driving investors away from bonds). Slowing growth and lower investment means diminishing corporate revenue, lower employment, and a recession. A recession drives people out of risk assets and back into "safe havens" - bonds. So, there is a built in stabilizing mechanism, both here and in Japan.
Paul Volker artificially raised rates to induce a recession and break an inflationary cycle. The total outstanding debt was small, so the rate increase required was quite large. The more debt is outstanding, the smaller the rate rise needed to induce recession and bring rates back down.
Chart the US 10 year rate since 1980 and overlay that chart with US recessions. Recessions are always preceded by a rise in nominal rates. The rate level required to trigger recession is lower each time. US 10 year rates at 4% would do the trick now, and thus, rates won't have an opportunity to pass 4% for long at all. The threshhold level in Japan, becuase they have much higher outstanding debt, is much lower.
The Obama Administration's Natural Gas Policy Is Tragically Misguided [View article]
There's also plenty of methane locked in permafrost in the artic. Once that permafrost melts, and all of that methane (a much more powerful GHG than CO2) is released the warming process will really get rolling.
It was only after the acretion of massive amounts of carbon (in the form of hydrocarbons) into the earth's crust did the earth develop an oxygen rich atmosphere capable of supporting life.
We seem determined to find and burn every molecule of hydrocarbons currently deposited in the earth's crust, thus reversing the process that made the earth hospitable to life.
All in the name of progress.
Chinese Housewives Buy All The Gold U.S. Money Managers Sell...And Then Some [View article]
Seriously, is this the best the [gold] pump monkey's can muster these days?
There Are Even Bigger Problems In The Reinhart And Rogoff Thinking [View article]
There Are Even Bigger Problems In The Reinhart And Rogoff Thinking [View article]
It was equally obvious, intuitively, that heavier objects fell faster than lighter objects.
Obvious, as well, that man cannot influence the earth's climate and that evolution is impossible.
Intuition has its place, the horse track is one, but science is often counter to intuition.
ECRI: Conditions Still Consistent With Recession [View article]
ECRI: Conditions Still Consistent With Recession [View article]
ECRI: Conditions Still Consistent With Recession [View article]
My job is in manufacturing (as an owner), I'm turning work away because I'm already comitted to about 50% more than I should be.
As is every other machine shop in this area.
Maybe the problem is what you're selling.
What China Should Do About The Gold Crash [View article]
China has been dealt a bad hand - huge population, poor water supply, few natural resources - and is doing remarkable things in a short period of time.
India, with similar population and resources, who never experienced totalitarian communism, and who escaped British rule almost 70 years ago, has done far less.
In the first 70 years or so after independence, the US itself was a 'copycat' nation. We shamelessly duplicated whatever was brought here from the continent - furniture, architecture, technology, etc. It wasn't until we produced our first international super-star (Samuel Clemens aka Mark Twain) that we suddenly developed an interest in protecting intellectual property. Before that, we were shamless copyists. Charles Dickens refused to tour in America because his books were being printed (pirated) and sold here without his receiving any royalties.
China and it's people should be proud of how far they've come in such a short period.
Is Gold Useless - Part III [View article]
And I wish the goldbugs weren't so dismissive of any critique that their horde might not be worth as much, post crash, as they think.
As it happens, at any given time, my machine shop has in inventory +/- $50,000 worth of cutting tools (end mills, drills, taps, etc) and materials (aluminum, alloy steel, tool steels, brass, bronze, etc).
Were the economy to completely collapse and the source of those items no longer be available, I would expect to see on the order of 10 to 100 fold appreciation in their value. The amount of gold above ground won't change at all. Relative to each other, which do think will experience greater appreciation.
And, in the mean time, I operate my business using those assets.
Is Gold Useless - Part III [View article]
You've hit the nail exactly on the head. Hyperinflations occur NOT because of monetary debasement (sorry, Milton Friedman) but because there is NOTHING to buy with your money, fiat or otherwise. In mining camps in the California goldrush fresh eggs were exchanged for gold in equal weight.
If there is an apocolypse, those who horde gold may find it far harder to purchase with it, than with something with intrinsic utility - things like hardware, hand tools, edged weapons, ammuntion, BOOTS, farm implements, or SEEDS. If one wanted to insure against complete economic collapse, fill a few 55 gallon drums with common hardware, saw blades, hammers, axe heads, etc. then top them up with heavy oil or grease and bury them in the backyard - this could be done for the price of a very few ounces of gold. On top of that, fill your attic with military surplus boots. You would find yourself very wealthy with easily exchanged and badly needed trade items if TSHTF.
But in reality, it won't ever be a sudden collapse a la "The Road Warrior". It will be a slow motion decay into anarchy. It took hundreds of years for the Western Roman Empire to collapse, and hundreds more after that until the fall of Constantinople. Even in Somalia, 20 years without a functioning government, and there are still auto repair businesses, coffee shops, restaraunts, and markets. It's chaotic, but it's not armageddon.