Seeking Alpha

alsobirdman

alsobirdman
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View alsobirdman's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Greece, Gold And Silver [View article]
    Hey George,

    If you like Silver Wheaton what are your thoughts on Sandstorm? Nolan Watson is a bright guy. I bought a bunch at 78 cents and wish I had loaded up the truck. May look to add some more soon. One of the things I look for when investing in a young company is the management team. Can't get much better than Watson in the royalty business, IMO.
    Nov 9 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refinancing Europe - The Impossible Burden [View article]
    FM and UI,

    I also enjoyed your discourse. Very refreshing to see something other than personal attacks and diatribes on how one or other of our political parties is to blame for all of the world's troubles.

    As you say it is very hard to tell where we are headed from here, but I am relying on the olds saws "the trend is your friend" and "don't fight the fed". In today's case, our Fed and EU's ECB. I believe we will see more printing, which will result in an equity rally from here and higher PM miners. I'm waiting on a good entry point for Vanguard's VWO as a way to play EU's revival after some more panic-selling ensues.

    Totally agree on BAC and C. They both have plenty of cash to weather any short-term issues and their return to prominance is almost a certainty.

    Also agree on trouble appearing next year. Near-zero interest rates will not last forever and inflation will rear its ugly head. When you consider that interest rates run in 30-year cycles, is it coincidence that it has been 30-years since 1981, when I remember paying 21% for a car loan?
    Nov 7 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strategy Is Needed For Lagging Gold Stocks [View article]
    Your premise is interesting. I'm not sure I would try a trading strategy now with gold, either bullion or mining shares, mainly because of the degree of volatililty we are seeing. I can't remember the specifics, but a buy and hold strategy worked well for me back in 1979-80 when I tripled my money by buying and holding Van Eck's III fund. Of course back then I only tripled my $800, but hey, it was a triple nonetheless. I'm no gold-bug, but I do see an eerie similarity now to then. Bullion is telling us that high interest rates are on the way, just like they were in the early 80's. I remember back then when everybody was talking about buying some gold. Hasn't happened yet. Haven't heard a word from the average Joe. I'll take advantage of the run and then head for the exit.
    Nov 4 08:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: It's So Easy (To Be Negative) [View article]
    I like to consider what I call my "man in the street" index. When I keep hearing everybody talk about how bad things are and they wish the market would go up, etc... I usually look to hold because I figure we are going to rally. When I hear people talking about how happy they are because their 401k's have gone up so much...., I look to get out. That's what I did in 2007. Worked out well for me. Worked for me back 1980 as well when I tripled my money in gold mining shares. We haven't hit that stage yet, but I hope we do.

    Bird is my namesake, and I won't tell you what we did with the pigeons that inhabited the barn on the farm where I grew up. :-).
    Nov 4 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: It's So Easy (To Be Negative) [View article]
    Yes, David. Very nice article. While I am not a perma-bull or bear, nor a gold-bug, I do look for trends and follow them when I think they will make me money.

    You both are correct that is is tough to not be a bear these days. Bears and gold-bugs both tend to react to opposing views as if someone had attacked them personally.

    I do believe we are headed for tough times next year due to higher interest rates, but in the meantime I am going to take advantage of higher gold and equity prices. After all, doesn't everyone know that the masses are usually wrong?
    Nov 4 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: Jump Aboard, It's Now A Rocket, Not A Roller Coaster! [View article]
    True, Alan. One day does not a trend make. However, if we do continue down, and it appears we may at least today, it will be as you and others here have stated, a good buying opportunity IF, and that's a big if, your time horizons extend beyond the next few weeks.
    Nov 1 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: Jump Aboard, It's Now A Rocket, Not A Roller Coaster! [View article]
    Great article and comments. I too see plenty of upside in the coming 6-12 months and hope we get one more nice correction so I can go all in.

    I'm very bullish for the short-term, because of a couple things; First, I tend to be a contrarian and when I hear a lot of gloom-and-doom talk, which is rampant, I figure we'll have some more upside because most people are wrong. The other is that all of those people who missed the run-up since '09 are now thinking that they better get on the train before it leaves the station.

    One example is a buddy of mine who has been convinced for 2.5 years that we are heading for a double-dip so he's waiting for his chance to buy. He keeps telling me we are in trouble because unemployment is so high. I agree it is high, but remind him that the unemployed aren't the ones driving the market. He's still waiting, but tells me he is thinking about getting back in the market. There's a lot of that thinking going on now, from comments I hear around the water cooler.

    I am worried about next year, since I feel we'll be dealing with rising interest rates, and I'll then be looking for opportunities in bonds, but for now, with 10-yr rates at 2%, equities will be a magnet for people looking for higher yields. I'll be selling into the rally and enjoying every minute of it.
    Oct 30 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Closed-End Funds At A Double-Digit Discount To NAV [View article]
    Thanks, Tack. I too have averaged more than 7% with my play money accounts, and you are right that it isn't easy. I'm not sure I want to spend so much time with all of my savings. That's why I'm thinking about buying some funds with this lump sum with a goal of at least equaling its yield with a tax-free yield. I live in a high-tax state (NY) and retirement income will be pretty close to current, so a little bit of tax-exempt income may be a good thing. I've got over half a year to come up with a strategy, and now I'm doing all the research I can so I can make the best choice at that time. Depending on how things look then, I may just sit on it for a bit. Time will tell.
    Oct 24 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Closed-End Funds At A Double-Digit Discount To NAV [View article]
    Lou, Tack, and E. If you don't mind, I would welcome comments on my strategy.

    Next June, I will have my choice of either taking $340K lump-sum or $1900 annuity. My plan is to take the lump-sum and put it in a traditional IRA to avoid the tax hit.

    I plan on playing with 40k and putting the other 300 in cef or etf

    I plan on watching my list of dividend paying CEF's both bond and equity, and purchasing some when I see a beneficial discount. I believe by the time I am 59 -1/2 I will be able to obtain much better than the $1900/month option. I figure by then (4 years) I will be able to provide either taxable or tax-free returns better than the 1900.

    I have plenty in my 401K to live on until then and may perhaps even work a few days a week if I get bored :-).
    Oct 23 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Bond Yield Traps [View article]
    Thanks for the link. I'll check it out. From today's action, it's almost time to move some!
    Oct 21 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Closed-End Funds At A Double-Digit Discount To NAV [View article]
    Tack,

    Thanks for the link. I have been researching Nuveen funds as well as Pimco. I'm doing research so I know not onlt what CEF's I want, but also when to buy them. I like to play with some of my money but some I just want to put somewhere and as Ron Popeil says, "set it and forget it"
    Oct 21 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Closed-End Funds At A Double-Digit Discount To NAV [View article]
    Great article. I'm getting ready to leave the workforce, and I'm keeping my eye open for discounts in muni-bond CEF's to provide some income, and capital appreciation is always welcomed. I'll start looking at your list as well.
    Oct 21 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Bond Yield Traps [View article]
    One of the things I do is look for at least 10% price difference. I am happy if I can get 10% gain, and I don't worry too much about how long it took. As an example, when the market is moving up, I look at the average price I paid for a fund. Let's assume it was $10. If it gets over $11, I start moving some of it into the cash fund. Assume it then gets to $12, I switch some more. Time goes by and the price drops to $11 again. I again look for around 10% difference. I move the amount I moved out at $12 back in @ $11. Not sophisticated but works for me. I only move about 10% of my total at any one time, although I admit I bought much more % than that in early August. I couldn't pass up buying back funds for $10 that I sold afew months earlier for over $12. That was easy money. When they get back up over $12, I'll do the same thing again.
    Oct 18 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Load Up On Gold Stocks? [View article]
    Nice article, Jeff. I agree with your analysis. The only thing that concerns me more than it used to, is the way the miners are tracking the general market rather than the price of gold. I should just close my eyes and ignore the volatility. I still believe we could see a price of gold over $2000 within the next 6 months, and I believe that price point will be the trigger that will awaken the average investor (and possibly insitutions) to the potential of the mines. If and when we then see a parabolic rise in the HUI is when I will look to sell my mining positions. Actually, I will probably start taking profits above the 700 level.

    I also beleive it is not out of the realm of possibility to see a 1:3 gold:Dow ratio, which is another of my sell triggers. I'm not a gold bug, but I do believe there is a lot of room for the miners to run in the near future. I'm in it for the money.
    Oct 16 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Bond Yield Traps [View article]
    Yes, you are using one of the many strategies that use one of the moving averages. Most 401K plans I know of have from a 30-day to 6-month window where you have a penalty for switching. Some of the funds in mine (Vanguard) have a 60-day window. One of the reasons I only move a portion (usually 10%) at a time is that when I do change directions I have plenty of powder that is outside the penalty window.
    GLTY!
    Oct 16 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
341 Comments
236 Likes