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alsobirdman

alsobirdman
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  • Gold: Prepare For A Strong Move [View article]
    Great article, Avi. I enjoy your writing and hope to learn more about Elliot wave theory as time permits. I read the article you linked on why investors buy near the top, and it is so true. Reminds me of my wife telling me three years ago to sell our stock because the market had tanked. And she's a smart woman who'll shop all day to save $5. I said "too late, I already did, back when everyone was gloating about how much they had gained in their 401K". To my thinking, your wave theory is very similar to the way I like to look at things, and you mention them in the piece. Your cab driver example is perfect. When I hear friends and neighbors talking about what everyone should be buying, that's when it's time to get out. And you also represent the old saw about being greedy when others are fearful. Not many are willing to do that but it is very important to practice.

    let's hope you are right in your projections. I'm a miners guy, but also hold some silver and looking for gains there as well.
    Mar 20, 2012. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From Sizzle To Simmer, Overnight [View article]
    UI,

    Thank you for those links above. I'll read them this weekend.

    Actually did not lose much in 08/09. In 2007 I started moving to cash because I started hearing the "man in the street" get excited about how much their 401K had gone up. I thought real estate was in a bubble. After the Dow crossed 12,000 I sold all the way to 14,000. I admit I came back in too early but I never worry about hitting absolute bottom and top. Everybody has their own tolerance for risk and their own goals. I just follow the trend, and right now the trend is up. I think too many folks now are mad at bankers, wall street, government, and all the other currrent villain of the day....... and are missing out on a lot of money being made.

    That being said, I have started moving into cash again, taking profits off the table, so yes some of the profits are still paper, but enough of them are not. If we have a big correction this year or next, I'm ready for it.
    Mar 17, 2012. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From Sizzle To Simmer, Overnight [View article]
    UI,

    Perhaps all valid reasons, but either way I have almost doubled my money in the last three years without a lot of effort. My scared friends have not. They'll be back. I don't care to debate whether the market is fair or not. I just want to make money.
    Mar 16, 2012. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From Sizzle To Simmer, Overnight [View article]
    UI,

    I just listen to what I call my "man in the street" index. It happens every time stocks go up. The only things that's different is the degree to which they are in or out. I'm starting to hear more comments such as "did you see how much the market is up today", and "wow, the Dow is over 13,000". People are greedy. They'll be back.

    And, please provide me a link to some verifiable data that they are still hitting the exits during this rally. I'd be interested to see some facts. I can't place it, but I seem to recall seeing some figures lately that refute your claim.
    Mar 16, 2012. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TGIF - Stop The Rally, We Want To Get Off! [View article]
    Absolutely, frog. A good friend of mine is in this camp and we were discussing this topic last night. He got out of SSO @ $22 because he knew we were going to double-dip. He has boght and sold (lower, he has it all backwards) VXX several times because we are headed into a recession. This is a guy who builds high-end homes for a living and keeps telling me his phone is ringing off the hook. I keep telling him to turn off CNBC and open his eyes. Sure, there is always the threat of another tsunami, earthquake, blah, blah, blah. That's why even in a market like this I always keep some cash around. But as you say, there are a whole lot of people that are getting antsy because they keep seeing the market go up while they are getting close to zero yield on their money. All of those people are close to wanting in on the gravy train. I'll keep taking profits along the way. No need to get greedy. But my impending retirement is getting brighter every day because I refused to believe the fear-mongers.

    When all of those investors are back in, that will be the time to short the market, but not now.
    Mar 16, 2012. 12:46 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some of Wall Street's largest portfolio managers are saying the bond market is at a turning point, and facing the end of one of the longest bull runs in its history. Why? Inflation. An improving jobs market, stronger dollar and rising commodity prices are adding to pricing pressures on everyday goods. As a result, the Fed could be forced to raise interest rates sooner than expected to keep inflation in check.  [View news story]
    Tack,

    I'm always impressed with your ability to state the facts in a way that makes it easy to understand. Another sad fact is that most people don't even realize there is an inverse relationship between bond yield and price, let alone the how that divergence increases as you describe. .
    Mar 16, 2012. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • From Sizzle To Simmer, Overnight [View article]
    The retail investors will return, and after they do is when it will be time to exit. I figure as soon as SP blows through 1400 the average Joe will think they better get on the train. They certainly aren't happy with their money getting .025. They'll be back and drive us to 1450-1500 easy. Any correction before then will be a good time to buy.

    At least I hope that's how it goes :-).
    Mar 13, 2012. 06:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market preview: It's a sea of red for Super Tuesday as Greece edges towards default and on worries over global growth, with S&P Benchmark futures -0.9%. Oil is -1%, following the equities trend and also possibly because of renewed optimism on Iran. Monster Worldwide (+6.9%) is set for a monster day after it says it's considering its strategic options.  [View news story]
    Yep. Took the opportunity to buy some VWO. Decent yield at today's price and plenty of upside when panic ends. I do hope it keeps going down so I can buy it even cheaper.
    Mar 6, 2012. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Market Is Not Necessarily Cheap [View article]
    wm,

    Yes, I read James K and he makes many valid reasons to avoid equities. One of my neighbors owns a hedge fund and we talk daily about the state of the markets. Yesterday I was telling him that the market is making me nervous in the short-term. Just like I did back in 07-08 I'm taking money off the table as we move up. I don't consider myself a bull or bear, I just like to follow trends, and I do think the long-term trend is nowhere but up. But I do hope James is right at some point this year, as I'm getting a nice lump-sum from my employer this summer and I'd like to put it to work at fire-sale prices. The world won't end if there is a big correction, and there's a whole lot of pent-up demand waiting to drive things higher. All one has to do is avoid the MSM and go out and see what is happening. Everywhere I go I see lines in stores and people spending. People can only live in fear for so long.
    Feb 26, 2012. 11:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leverage Higher Oil Prices With These Small Oil Producers [View article]
    Thanks for the information, Michael. On a pullback I'll look into some of these. I have been playing around with small producers for the last three years. Wish I could go back and buy more Magnum Hunter (MHR) when I was first trading it back in '09. One I started trading three years ago and have since kept a long position in is Daybreak Oil and Gas (DBRM). I'm not as bullish as I once was but they have a history of making things work and the CEO has good industry reputation. They have money coming in and some good leases.
    Feb 25, 2012. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Market Is Not Necessarily Cheap [View article]
    E,

    Where do you think we're headed? A couple years ago I told one of my friends to buy SSO. SP was about 900 at the time. He did not because "we're gonna double-dip". At the time I told him the SP would be 1300 by the end of 2011. I bought stocks, sold some last spring after a 20% gain and bought back big time last fall. He bought VXX at $38 and you know how that turned out. Then he took that money and bought a 2x SP short ETF. I'm waiting for some more panic-selling to buy again. I am not a strict buy-and-hold guy and have been taking some 25+% profits recently. Looking to put that money back to work. I have been telling him we'll smash through 1400 this year and he's still on the sidelines.
    Feb 24, 2012. 01:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 69: Beginning Feb. 21, 2012 [View instapost]
    I only get around to reading here every coupla days and posting once every other week. That is about the funniest thing I have seen in quite some time, both the note to HTL and your response, J.
    Feb 22, 2012. 05:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: 10 Biggest Lies We Are Told About Retirement (Part 11) [View article]
    Love the article, RS, and yes, I'll hit the flesh-colored thumb-thingie after I post this.

    I'm getting ready to retire at 54. My job was off-shored and I never planned on working much past 55 anyway so timing is right. I plan on doing something a few days a week to keep busy, but it will be something I want to do. I'm spending a lot of time these days figuring out what to do with IRA, 401K, lump-sum pension, etc.....It's mind-numbing at times. Your advice is spot-on, IMO. I just need to convince my wife that we don't need to leave the kids a fortune. My opinion is nobody helped me and I'm not going to give up any of my fun so they can have more fun when I am gone.

    That said, I have started a DPP with PG for my son and am starting same for 25-YO daughter. I figure in 30 years it will at least give them a little cushion.
    Feb 20, 2012. 10:09 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trouble Brewing Behind Facade Of Bull Rally [View article]
    Right on, Pinot. I've been riding this train since 2009 and while I have taken some profits along the way, I took advantage of the panic-selling last fall and hope Greece elicits some more of it this spring so I can buy again. My friends keep telling me we're headed for trouble and I keep laughing on my way to the bank.

    All one has to do is look at earnings, decreasing initial claims, jobs added, and did I mention earnings. And this is all without housing joining in a big way. Add in the fact that it is an election year and all of the bearish sentiment and we'll be much higher by fall than we are now.

    And AAPL, every day I hear of another of my friends buying an iPad. You are right on. I just wish I could go back and buy the pre-2 split shares @ $13 my brother recommended years ago. Sigh.

    And BTW, as a Yankee fan since childhood, who cares about the Sox, LOL
    Feb 19, 2012. 10:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Asset Allocation And Active Management [View article]
    Great comments, T. It's funny how few people have any idea about what you say. I'm retiring at 54 (sort of being forced to because my job was off-shored) due mainly to hard work and some luck with my investments. For most of my investing life I have been stuck with the MF options available through my company's 401K, but I have recently been spending much more time researching and buying individual companies. I have talked to a few "money managers" mainly for my wife's benefit in case I die, and between their fees and the loaded mutual funds they push, I have decided I have to start teaching her a bit more about what I do with our money.
    Feb 17, 2012. 09:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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