No Mean Sum's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/5277001/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1031511/comments?source=feed#comment-12834431 12834431 Thu, 20 Dec 2012 16:11:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/979041/comments?source=feed#comment-11547551 11547551 Tue, 13 Nov 2012 11:11:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/945141/comments?source=feed#comment-11259561 11259561 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 17:16:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/945141/comments?source=feed#comment-11259531 11259531
Obviously it depends on who the strategic buyer is. If you have distribution capabilities internationally (where there might be growth potential) and want to exploit the brand then this might be a good deal for you, depending on whether you believe the U.S. based business can run at its current level. Alternatively, if you have a strong wholesale business already, you could buy the business to leverage off their retail infrastructure to create a more diversified retail operation on a national scale. Although the latter plan would require considerable confidence in your ability as a merchandiser and a belief that the company has an infrastructure worth purchasing rather than building yourself, and great designers tend to like to do it their way.

The fact is that the cash on the balance sheet combined with low interest rates / attractive financing make an acquisition a real possibility. I think what matters for us as investors is not trying to envision every scenario possible but to try and arrive at a reasonable estimate of the probability of any deal happening at all.

I'll be doing a follow-up post in the near future to try and reflect on the valuable feedback I've received from readers like you.

Thanks again,

No Mean Sum]]> Mon, 05 Nov 2012 17:16:04 -0500
Obviously it depends on who the strategic buyer is. If you have distribution capabilities internationally (where there might be growth potential) and want to exploit the brand then this might be a good deal for you, depending on whether you believe the U.S. based business can run at its current level. Alternatively, if you have a strong wholesale business already, you could buy the business to leverage off their retail infrastructure to create a more diversified retail operation on a national scale. Although the latter plan would require considerable confidence in your ability as a merchandiser and a belief that the company has an infrastructure worth purchasing rather than building yourself, and great designers tend to like to do it their way.

The fact is that the cash on the balance sheet combined with low interest rates / attractive financing make an acquisition a real possibility. I think what matters for us as investors is not trying to envision every scenario possible but to try and arrive at a reasonable estimate of the probability of any deal happening at all.

I'll be doing a follow-up post in the near future to try and reflect on the valuable feedback I've received from readers like you.

Thanks again,

No Mean Sum]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/945141/comments?source=feed#comment-11195861 11195861 Sat, 03 Nov 2012 10:30:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/945141/comments?source=feed#comment-10871801 10871801
Thanks for your comment. I arrived at that number by taking the average from the following passage in the most recent 10-k.

"Our largest retail product category in terms of units sold in 2011, 2010, and 2009 was denim bottoms, which accounted for 50%, 72%, and 56%, respectively, of total units sold in our U.S. Consumer Direct segment."

As for the cash, the cash amount I put in the valuation takes data from the most recently quarterly filing balance sheet. ]]> Wed, 24 Oct 2012 22:33:09 -0400
Thanks for your comment. I arrived at that number by taking the average from the following passage in the most recent 10-k.

"Our largest retail product category in terms of units sold in 2011, 2010, and 2009 was denim bottoms, which accounted for 50%, 72%, and 56%, respectively, of total units sold in our U.S. Consumer Direct segment."

As for the cash, the cash amount I put in the valuation takes data from the most recently quarterly filing balance sheet. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/945141/comments?source=feed#comment-10871391 10871391
First, let me thank you both for your comments and compliments.

I think you're probably right that using the same EBITDA margin and subtracting the PV of operating leases is somewhat double counting. But I feel that there must be more to it than that, and I will be consulting someone more learned than myself on the subject to double check.

Assuming that Rabish is correct for the moment, that a going private transaction is worth $30.00 to the purchaser I would like to know what kind of probability you would assign to a purchase going through?

Also, have you considered the change in control compensation mentioned in the most recent proxy? I am no expert in M&A, and maybe this is void in the event of a non-hostile takeover, but from what I can tell a change in control means a payout totaling 14mm to the named executive officers and another 30mm (my estimate) if they want to terminate them as well.

I may be wrong about this whole thing, and TRLG may indeed be a good play. In any case I'd like to thank you for contributing to the discussion. ]]> Wed, 24 Oct 2012 22:16:38 -0400
First, let me thank you both for your comments and compliments.

I think you're probably right that using the same EBITDA margin and subtracting the PV of operating leases is somewhat double counting. But I feel that there must be more to it than that, and I will be consulting someone more learned than myself on the subject to double check.

Assuming that Rabish is correct for the moment, that a going private transaction is worth $30.00 to the purchaser I would like to know what kind of probability you would assign to a purchase going through?

Also, have you considered the change in control compensation mentioned in the most recent proxy? I am no expert in M&A, and maybe this is void in the event of a non-hostile takeover, but from what I can tell a change in control means a payout totaling 14mm to the named executive officers and another 30mm (my estimate) if they want to terminate them as well.

I may be wrong about this whole thing, and TRLG may indeed be a good play. In any case I'd like to thank you for contributing to the discussion. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/902971/comments?source=feed#comment-10734601 10734601 Sat, 20 Oct 2012 16:52:38 -0400