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  • How Google Stole The Show From Apple  [View article]
    For those not paying attention

    Apple entered the mobile phone market with a mobile computer that made phone calls as one of its features.

    This disrupted the incumbents who have all failed because the game changed and they didn't notice
    Motorola
    Microsoft
    Nokia
    Rimm
    Palm
    Etc
    Feb 5, 2016. 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Taking A Long-Term View  [View article]
    Beats music
    iTunes
    Swift
    Feb 5, 2016. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Chill  [View article]
    Apple cannot buy large companies. There would be a culture clash. This is well documented. They can ingest a small company and convert or not.

    It would not look good to buy a large company and lay off 1000's because of culture or skills.
    Feb 5, 2016. 03:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Chill  [View article]
    It seems Apple didn't think they could build a streaming service. More likely they wanted Iovine on their team.
    Feb 5, 2016. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Taking A Long-Term View  [View article]
    Different markets.

    Netflix shows movies and tv shows
    YouTube does not.
    YouTube shows music videos and personal short videos.

    They perform a completely different function.

    Netflix pays for content. YouTube does not
    Feb 5, 2016. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Chill  [View article]
    I agree. Tesla as a company is more about software than cars. They also care about design. Both properties that jibes well with Apple. Apple could also use musk's big ideas, but I don't think he wants to work for anyone. He has to call the shots so the marriage won't work.
    Feb 5, 2016. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing For A Drop In Google's (Alphabet's!) Stock  [View article]
    Why is that?

    Yes. Google seems to dip its toes in many fields. How has any of that been productive for the company? Yes they let the world see some of their more promising lab experiments, but which of these will make it money?

    It's last big bet that it released to the world was a complete failure. Google glass. I give them credit for being willing to fail. The question is what did they learn from this failure?
    Feb 5, 2016. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing For A Drop In Google's (Alphabet's!) Stock  [View article]
    India is completely untapped but they first need to move their mobile network into the modern world and not be a third world country.
    Feb 5, 2016. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Google Stole The Show From Apple  [View article]
    Google looks to grow faster than Apple over the next 12 months. This is because they still throw off lots of cash selling ads. No one today has their reach.

    Apple needs to iterate on its new properties, ultra mobile ( watch) and Apple Pay. While Apple Pay is not a profit center is is complementary. For example they can tie it to messages to execute person to person money transfers. This would dramatically decrease the payments friction. Pairing Apple Pay with safari would further strengthen Apple as a mobile payments platform, etc.

    Apple is getting pummeled because year over year comparisons are not good. If you look at the numbers from a 2 or 3 year perspective what Apple reported and what it is expected to report will be more normal.

    I think the current compares are due to one off comparisons to a new feature for Apple mobile. Namely the large screen phone. Years of pent up demand were unleashed in the 4th q 2014 and 1q 2015. After that the compares should be more normal.
    Feb 5, 2016. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: If iPhone Keeps Shrinking  [View article]
    He actually makes a good point. You focus on the phone as you should. Apple is guiding a decline of about 12% y/y. You extrapolate to iPhone sales. Should you? What is the currency effect y/y? You need to start with that as 2/3 of Apple sales is overseas.
    Feb 5, 2016. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: If iPhone Keeps Shrinking  [View article]
    And yet one quarter of macs is almost the size of a full year of chrome book. And how much money does Google make on it? Zero.
    Feb 5, 2016. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: If iPhone Keeps Shrinking  [View article]
    Glen this is actually a serious question, but the question needs to be clarified

    Google Bulls will point to growing revenue and profits. Apple Bulls will point to near total profits of the mobile market.

    So which is it?

    Apple is really the only customer facing company making money selling mobile devices. I exclude Samsung as their profits in this sector has been declining for 2 years now.

    Google makes no money selling stuff to consumers. Zero. They make all their money selling stuff to advertisers.

    What android , chrome books, maps, YouTube , etc do is provide a surface by which Google sells ads. They also sell ads on Apple properties.

    So the answer to the question of do they make money on these products is yes and no. No in that none of their financial filings has ever supported the claim that android is anything but a cost center. Same for any other property fans point to as Google winning. The answer is yes in that these same properties are vectors to provide ads on which they do make money but on an increasingly lower marginal rate. They are making money because they are able to sell more ads at a 15% discount y/y.

    My question is at what point does the positive first derivative become zero and then negative?

    Google has a problem. At this point if I were to close my eyes and buy a tech company I would choose Facebook. It plays in the same place as Google and has a much stronger property. To wit Facebook is a property that people are always on. Google is a property that people have to select. Google needs to continue to entice people to switch to their property. Facebook has people always on their property. Facebook is growing faster from a smaller base. Google is growing faster than Apple from a smaller base.

    Facebook is king in social which is the dominant software domain in this generation. Google has no presence in social and has failed in its efforts to compete in that space.
    Feb 5, 2016. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: If iPhone Keeps Shrinking  [View article]
    Please share how cook is incompetent.

    Please share how Google and Microsoft is eating apples lunch.

    I have looked at the reports of Google, Microsoft, Apple and Facebook

    Facebook had a really nice quarter. Google did very well. Apple did terrible and Microsoft did not do well.

    Google makes all its money on ads. It makes nothing on anything else. Their profit is do to 2 factors revenue growth while a falling marginal rate indicates a growth in ad sales. Since they have not released the 10q you can make up your theory of what they did. The second part of profit is a marked decline in cost. This means the new CFO over the past year has put the brakes on investment that has no immediate payoff. This of course makes the street happy but does nothing for the meme of an innovative company. Apple in contrast is doubling down on its investments.

    On the Apple platform their maps app has 3/4 of the users. So head to head with google's app Apple users choose the default map product. Same for messages, etc.

    So please explain to me again how they are getting killed by Google or Microsoft for that matter.
    Feb 5, 2016. 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: If iPhone Keeps Shrinking  [View article]
    While 35% is impressive, what does Google say about it? Google makes no material income from chrome books or anything else that is not an ad sale.

    From a link I found related to PC world they claim there were roughly 5 m chrome books sold in 3 quarters of 2015. Apple sold that many macs ( and at a higher price ) in one quarter. Can Google continue this growth? Let us see. It is a nice data point. Hardly killing it tho.
    % growth is rate of change but it says nothing about the actual amount. It depends on what you value.
    Feb 5, 2016. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Moving Beyond The iPhone  [View article]
    Apple will not grow in India until they deliver a grown up mobile network
    Jan 27, 2016. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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