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37 Comments

    • Studying the Dow / S&P 500 Ratio [view article]
      Wrong Rob. Just because the indexes are calculated differently doesn't negate the importance of comparisons. Different sets of data are always compared, from debt ratios to price/earnings ratio. The important lesson is what kinds of inferences can you draw from these comparisons. May 19 10:26 AM
    • Studying the Dow / S&P 500 Ratio [view article]
      Tuj, the point is that the Dow would be 3,000 points higher if it had kept pace with the S&P 500. Dude! Also, you can see that the normal relationship broke down during the tech bubble and its deflating. These relationships don't always hold up so well. May 14 01:58 PM
    • Leucadia Buys Stake in Jeffries as Banks Turn to Private Equity [view article]
      Leucadia is spelled correctly.

      www.leucadia.com/

      Also, a preposition is something you shouldn't end your sentences with.       May 01 01:42 PM
    • Stocks vs. Bonds: A Surprising Result [view article]
      That's not correct. The line on the chart is of long-term corporate bonds. The source is Ibbotson Associates. I've stretched it out by 2% a year to see how well that level of premium competes with stocks. In my opinion, it does fairly well. Apr 11 07:43 PM
    • Why 'Say on Pay' Should Not Be Required of Companies [view article]
      My article is corrected.

      www.crossingwallstreet...
       Apr 11 09:58 AM
    • Stocks vs. Bonds: A Surprising Result [view article]
      Sorry Mister Bill, the chart is correct. Apr 10 11:24 PM
    • Stocks vs. Bonds: A Surprising Result [view article]
      Given the volatility of the premium for stocks, I don't think 2.1% is much of a reward. Over the last 10 years, corporate bonds have still outperformed stocks. Apr 10 01:32 PM
    • Collapse of the Yield Curve [view article]
      The Fed Funds rate is at 3%. Despite the cuts, the three-month and five-year rate are still will below the Fed. Mar 05 11:25 AM
    • A Note to the Bubble-Phobes [view article]
      Thanks for the comments. A number of you pointed out that it isn't that difficult to spot bubbles. I agree with two caveats. One is that you can spot bubbles based on historical comparisons. What if those have changed? The markets dividend yield was often higher than long-term interest rates, now it never is. Going by the old metrics, we've been in a bubble for decades.

      That brings me to my second point that even if we're in a bubble, that doesn't mean the bubble won't continue to get worse (or better depending on your point of view). Alan Greenspan's famous "irrational exuberance" comments came years before the market reached its peak. The market may revert to the mean, but it may time a long time getting there. Spotting a bubble is a lot easier than spotting a top.

      Thanks again for these very astute comments!       Mar 04 12:41 PM
    • Is This the End of the Small-Cap Cycle? [view article]
      I don't believe it's a long-term change, but these cycles aren't always in sync with the economy. Large-caps had their day from 1994 to 1999 when the economy did very well. There's also a currency impact since larger companies, as a whole, are more internationally focused. Feb 26 10:41 AM
    • How Does Inflation Impact Stocks? [view article]
      I used the CPI from the government. I know there are many criticisms of this index, but it's the only one I have.

      I apologize for any confusion about the chart but there's no easy way to graph it. The blue line shows the cumulative gain of the S&P 500 going by the rate of inflation (low to high being left to right).

      In the deflationary period at the beginning, the market drops. Then between -5% and +5%, it rises very dramatically, Then it levels off and falls dramatically.       Feb 21 10:59 AM
    • The Black Swan: A Fascinating, Albeit Infuriating, Read [view article]
      Wow, I guess I did! That's ok. Reading my post is a matter of choice. Understanding it is apparently determined by intellect.

      The same goes for the use of the word "albeit."       Feb 14 03:55 PM
    • Strange but True... Stock Prices Have a Memory [view article]
      Sorry for the confusion, it's a weird chart I admit. Think of it this way. I took all the days and rescrambled them, not according to their calendar order but according to the previous day's performance.

      The blue line show the cumliative gain. So investing just after bad days is bad for you, but the effect gradually improves as the previous day's move improves.       Feb 13 04:15 PM
    • Strange but True... Stock Prices Have a Memory [view article]
      Not reversals, but continuations of the day before.

      Your line: "Stock prices "remember" what happened yesterday, but "can't remember" what happened the day before that?" sums it up nicely.       Feb 13 12:36 PM
    • The Fed Capitulates, But Will It Help? [view article]
      Today, I'm going for both mediocre! Jan 22 10:37 AM
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