Eddy Elfenbein's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/52840/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/163245-valuations-ahead-not-behind?source=feed#comment-689731 689731
www.bloomberg.com/apps...]]> Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:37:16 -0400
www.bloomberg.com/apps...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162001-what-football-teaches-us-about-risk-management?source=feed#comment-681188 681188 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 15:05:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148457-more-innumeracy-from-jeremy-siegal?source=feed#comment-586383 586383
The spelling has been corrected in the original post. Thanks.]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 16:25:47 -0400
The spelling has been corrected in the original post. Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146549-comparing-stability-of-dividends-and-stock-prices-over-time?source=feed#comment-572529 572529
Thanks for the comments! Actual both numbers are right but slightly different series. Mine is the trailing four-quarter per-share total. The numbers David lists are the quarterly dollar totals. That's why the drop off on my blue line isn't as severe.

Incidentally, S&P just updated the numbers so the Q2 numbers are my chart are 919.32 for the black line, and 25.59 for the blue line. I should add that the blue line will most likely continue to fall for a few more quarters.

Thanks for your thoughtful feedback. This is how Seeking Alpha helps clarify issues for investors. - Eddy]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 21:28:53 -0400
Thanks for the comments! Actual both numbers are right but slightly different series. Mine is the trailing four-quarter per-share total. The numbers David lists are the quarterly dollar totals. That's why the drop off on my blue line isn't as severe.

Incidentally, S&P just updated the numbers so the Q2 numbers are my chart are 919.32 for the black line, and 25.59 for the blue line. I should add that the blue line will most likely continue to fall for a few more quarters.

Thanks for your thoughtful feedback. This is how Seeking Alpha helps clarify issues for investors. - Eddy]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77194-studying-the-dow-s-p-500-ratio?source=feed#comment-170002 170002 Mon, 19 May 2008 10:26:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77194-studying-the-dow-s-p-500-ratio?source=feed#comment-167568 167568 Wed, 14 May 2008 13:58:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73270-leucadia-buys-stake-in-jeffries-as-banks-turn-to-private-equity?source=feed#comment-160195 160195
www.leucadia.com/

Also, a preposition is something you shouldn't end your sentences with.]]> Thu, 01 May 2008 13:42:31 -0400
www.leucadia.com/

Also, a preposition is something you shouldn't end your sentences with.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71790-stocks-vs-bonds-a-surprising-result?source=feed#comment-149287 149287 Fri, 11 Apr 2008 19:43:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71788-why-say-on-pay-should-not-be-required-of-companies?source=feed#comment-148921 148921
www.crossingwallstreet...
]]> Fri, 11 Apr 2008 09:58:06 -0400
www.crossingwallstreet...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71790-stocks-vs-bonds-a-surprising-result?source=feed#comment-148702 148702 Thu, 10 Apr 2008 23:24:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71790-stocks-vs-bonds-a-surprising-result?source=feed#comment-148387 148387 Thu, 10 Apr 2008 13:32:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67235-collapse-of-the-yield-curve?source=feed#comment-122452 122452 Wed, 05 Mar 2008 11:25:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67019-a-note-to-the-bubble-phobes?source=feed#comment-122002 122002
That brings me to my second point that even if we're in a bubble, that doesn't mean the bubble won't continue to get worse (or better depending on your point of view). Alan Greenspan's famous "irrational exuberance" comments came years before the market reached its peak. The market may revert to the mean, but it may time a long time getting there. Spotting a bubble is a lot easier than spotting a top.

Thanks again for these very astute comments!]]> Tue, 04 Mar 2008 12:41:57 -0500
That brings me to my second point that even if we're in a bubble, that doesn't mean the bubble won't continue to get worse (or better depending on your point of view). Alan Greenspan's famous "irrational exuberance" comments came years before the market reached its peak. The market may revert to the mean, but it may time a long time getting there. Spotting a bubble is a lot easier than spotting a top.

Thanks again for these very astute comments!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66089-is-this-the-end-of-the-small-cap-cycle?source=feed#comment-119229 119229 Tue, 26 Feb 2008 10:41:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/65442-how-does-inflation-impact-stocks?source=feed#comment-117620 117620
I apologize for any confusion about the chart but there's no easy way to graph it. The blue line shows the cumulative gain of the S&P 500 going by the rate of inflation (low to high being left to right).

In the deflationary period at the beginning, the market drops. Then between -5% and +5%, it rises very dramatically, Then it levels off and falls dramatically.]]> Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:59:24 -0500
I apologize for any confusion about the chart but there's no easy way to graph it. The blue line shows the cumulative gain of the S&P 500 going by the rate of inflation (low to high being left to right).

In the deflationary period at the beginning, the market drops. Then between -5% and +5%, it rises very dramatically, Then it levels off and falls dramatically.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64554-the-black-swan-a-fascinating-albeit-infuriating-read?source=feed#comment-116352 116352
The same goes for the use of the word "albeit."]]> Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:55:17 -0500
The same goes for the use of the word "albeit."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64160-strange-but-true-stock-prices-have-a-memory?source=feed#comment-116154 116154
The blue line show the cumliative gain. So investing just after bad days is bad for you, but the effect gradually improves as the previous day's move improves.]]> Wed, 13 Feb 2008 16:15:36 -0500
The blue line show the cumliative gain. So investing just after bad days is bad for you, but the effect gradually improves as the previous day's move improves.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64160-strange-but-true-stock-prices-have-a-memory?source=feed#comment-116102 116102
Your line: "Stock prices "remember" what happened yesterday, but "can't remember" what happened the day before that?" sums it up nicely.]]> Wed, 13 Feb 2008 12:36:11 -0500
Your line: "Stock prices "remember" what happened yesterday, but "can't remember" what happened the day before that?" sums it up nicely.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60996-the-fed-capitulates-but-will-it-help?source=feed#comment-112156 112156 Tue, 22 Jan 2008 10:37:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59886-frederic-mishkin-stop-obsessing-about-the-fed?source=feed#comment-110015 110015 Sun, 13 Jan 2008 17:19:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59090-follow-up-on-momentum-stocks?source=feed#comment-108823 108823 Mon, 07 Jan 2008 19:10:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59090-follow-up-on-momentum-stocks?source=feed#comment-108793 108793 Mon, 07 Jan 2008 15:58:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/56453-a-look-at-the-incredible-power-of-momentum-stocks?source=feed#comment-104297 104297 Thu, 06 Dec 2007 09:21:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/54559-fannie-mae-s-decline-is-disheartening?source=feed#comment-102377 102377 Mon, 19 Nov 2007 15:39:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/54559-fannie-mae-s-decline-is-disheartening?source=feed#comment-102361 102361 Mon, 19 Nov 2007 14:09:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49305-options-traders-paying-dearly-for-s-p-500-puts?source=feed#comment-98101 98101 Tue, 09 Oct 2007 11:21:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49305-options-traders-paying-dearly-for-s-p-500-puts?source=feed#comment-98100 98100
Mason says implied volatility, a measure that calculates expected price swings of an underlying asset and is used as a barometer for options prices, shows many investors are betting that stocks may fall.

Since Aug. 15, the implied volatility of put options that lock in gains should the S&P 500 drop at least 10 percent in six months has averaged 24.08 percent, according to data from Morgan Stanley, the second-largest U.S. securities firm by market value after New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The implied volatility on puts is 8.1 percentage points higher than for call options, enabling investors to profit if the index rises at least 10 percent in the same period. The so-called implied volatility skew climbed as high as 8.53 points since mid- August. That's steeper than 99 percent of all readings since the start of the decade, Morgan Stanley said. The median difference is 5.9 percentage points.

The gap shows there's "an awful lot of nervousness," said Mason. "A lot of investors don't want to get caught out." ]]> Tue, 09 Oct 2007 11:12:16 -0400
Mason says implied volatility, a measure that calculates expected price swings of an underlying asset and is used as a barometer for options prices, shows many investors are betting that stocks may fall.

Since Aug. 15, the implied volatility of put options that lock in gains should the S&P 500 drop at least 10 percent in six months has averaged 24.08 percent, according to data from Morgan Stanley, the second-largest U.S. securities firm by market value after New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The implied volatility on puts is 8.1 percentage points higher than for call options, enabling investors to profit if the index rises at least 10 percent in the same period. The so-called implied volatility skew climbed as high as 8.53 points since mid- August. That's steeper than 99 percent of all readings since the start of the decade, Morgan Stanley said. The median difference is 5.9 percentage points.

The gap shows there's "an awful lot of nervousness," said Mason. "A lot of investors don't want to get caught out." ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48363-robert-shiller-s-real-track-record?source=feed#comment-97104 97104
NoFate: I don't claim to discredit him. I have no idea where you get that from. Do you even read what you comment on? Please. If you don't even read the posts, don't comment! It makes you look silly. The facts speak for themselves. Shiller was a bear back in 1996 and he's been a bear all along. He's been wrong.

Quaker: Your comment is one of the silliest things I've ever read on Seeking Alpha. Since you didn't address anything in the post, I'll simply dismiss your comments as irrelevant.]]> Fri, 28 Sep 2007 13:18:53 -0400
NoFate: I don't claim to discredit him. I have no idea where you get that from. Do you even read what you comment on? Please. If you don't even read the posts, don't comment! It makes you look silly. The facts speak for themselves. Shiller was a bear back in 1996 and he's been a bear all along. He's been wrong.

Quaker: Your comment is one of the silliest things I've ever read on Seeking Alpha. Since you didn't address anything in the post, I'll simply dismiss your comments as irrelevant.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48363-robert-shiller-s-real-track-record?source=feed#comment-97103 97103
NoFate: I don't claim to discredit him. I have no idea where you get that from. Do you even read what you comment on? Please. If you don't even read the posts, don't comment! It makes you look silly. The facts speak for themselves. Shiller was a bear back in 1996 and he's been a bear all along. He's been wrong.

Quaker: Your comment is one of the silliest things I've ever read on Seeking Alpha. Since you didn't address anything in the post, I'll simply dismiss your comments as irrelevant.]]> Fri, 28 Sep 2007 13:18:50 -0400
NoFate: I don't claim to discredit him. I have no idea where you get that from. Do you even read what you comment on? Please. If you don't even read the posts, don't comment! It makes you look silly. The facts speak for themselves. Shiller was a bear back in 1996 and he's been a bear all along. He's been wrong.

Quaker: Your comment is one of the silliest things I've ever read on Seeking Alpha. Since you didn't address anything in the post, I'll simply dismiss your comments as irrelevant.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/43933-alan-greenspan-on-credit-fedipus-rex?source=feed#comment-93269 93269 Thu, 09 Aug 2007 14:22:40 -0400