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Copious28

Copious28
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  • 5 Lesser-Known Catalysts For Micron In 2014 [View article]
    Thank you Jaret. Cooler heads prevail, its just a quarterly earnings report and not the end game.
    Jan 6, 2014. 05:37 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    Russ, you know better than quote Digitimes to support your thesis!
    Sep 3, 2014. 09:51 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They Are Having A Sale On Intel Shares Today - Don't Miss It [View article]
    But yet, you stopped to comment on this article?
    Nov 22, 2013. 02:55 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need An iPhone 6 Teardown! [View article]
    Thank G-d you became an attorney. ;)
    Sep 11, 2014. 12:14 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
    Another question: could the Fed just slowly stop buying and not sell any, instead holding to maturity? Wouldn't that ease them out of QE?
    Apr 5, 2013. 08:46 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    I am an IT guy. People are technology stupid, the greater percentage of them anyway. Capacity as you said is NAND. That is the storage where pictures, phone contacts, etc are stored.
    Most people dont understand how these things work. If the software (OS, hardware drivers, application) is extremely well written and is memory efficient, then a phone could require less DRAM to function at optimum levels. So the fact that Samsung has 3GB DRAM in a phone could mean dittly squat if Android is a bloated mess.
    If you take away the data point, then there is no comparison. AND just because they took it away doesnt mean there isnt 1.5GB. It just means they dont want the Sheeple to compare it to Samsung and say "oh, that doesnt have as much RAM, whatever that is, so I dont want it"
    This also works the other way--I remember Dell/HP/etc putting 4GB of ram in workstations (years ago) and selling people on "high performance". Little did they know that the bottleneck was the spinning hunk of metal where the data was stored.
    I hope that both makes sense and I answered the question you were asking.
    Sep 10, 2014. 02:49 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Surface Doesn't Work [View article]
    First, I want to say I have built my career on supporting, consulting on and now architecting Microsoft products. I know their business model and ecosystem well. I do not however, invest in $msft because I don't like their management and I believe for as successful as they are, they have a long history of being last to market and destroying shareholder value.
    Microsoft does a lot of things well and building an ecosystem is one of a them. Here is where I disagree:
    1) Surface provided both a "hey this is possible" and leadership on quality, in light of all the failures (HP)
    2) They priced it to take a bite of the Apple, at the high end of the market with fat margins. I only looked at the launch quarter sales, but their meager sales numbers were $2B in revenue. That's not chump change.
    3) They are selling into their ecosystem very well. I know a connected systems (Biztalk) developer that does all his work on a surface. Their ecosystem is HUGE. When AD integration arrives to Win8, this will have tremendous upside. Office and AD integration is where the iPad and Android devices miss the mark.
    4) $MSFT has been making hardware for a long time. Mice, keyboards, webcams, and the XBOX are prime examples. Its been a decade since the XBOX launched, right?

    Here's where I agree:
    1) Just like the iPhone, competitors nip at your heels. In this case, its weird because MSFT wants this, which puts them in a weird place. And just like someone mentioned INTC's NUK earlier, competing with your customers is a fine line to walk.
    2) They did a good job with this, but they have a lot of trouble with subsequent miss steps. XBOX ONE launch (DRM, internet mandatory, pricing) is a prime example.

    I guess this is a case of mixing the good with the bad. They have a lot of cash, so it was an easy risk to take. I think this is going to be the innovation machine, the R&D for the PC industry. And here is my insight: everyone off shored manufacturing. You could argue Dell doesn't know how to make a PC anymore, and in allowing Asus to make their computers, they enabled a now competitor. The PC industry is now in the throws of being lowest cost, commodity and very little is spent on innovation. MSFT and INTC will be doing the R&D for everyone, and manu's will copy. They are pretty much forced to. If they would work more closely together, coordinating product launches, all would be right with the x86 world...

    I appreciate this thought provoking article.
    Jun 21, 2013. 08:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: DRAM Dashing Along, NAND More Nuanced [View article]
    I strongly disagree with Winslow: "that just moving data off of hard disks and onto SSDs does not produce desired levels of performance."

    This is entirely dependent on the application. Storage is cheap, and getting cheaper all the time. A lot of times, "good enough" logic rules. This is why Fusion I/O had issues selling expensive cards when SSDs based systems became more prevalent.

    We tested IBM and NetApp flash systems, and in most cases with cubes, saw ~50% improvements +.

    I think CS 's small percentage on in-memory is reasonable, but it might take a bit to get momentum. Oracle is not cheap and apps will need to be tested.

    Long MU stock with a large and now negative cost basis position. In and out of options with big profits thanks to the SA MU bull crew.

    Incidentally, you could title this article "Why I Am a Short of SAP". This will give Hanna a run for its money; they will eventually have to support 12c. Never go head-to-head against Larry Ellison.
    Jun 12, 2014. 12:34 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial sector rating: ETFC, ARCP, DB, FULT, GNW [View news story]
    I like how Baird cuts its rating, but still has a $15 target. That's +16% from here.
    May 19, 2014. 02:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: Should You Buy At $40 Per Share? [View article]
    The interest rate talk is overblown, to some extent--to quote the author:

    "What is particularly noteworthy about its dividend record, though, is that the company was able to continuously deliver value for shareholders throughout the financial crisis (2007-present). In addition, the time period in the graphic above covers more than one business cycle: The golden nineties, the devastating dotcom-bubble period with low interest rates subsequently, the recovery and expansion period from 2003-2007 with higher interest rates and the real estate- and financial crisis in the period after."

    Really though, you have to look at how their debt is structured when talking about interest rates. They refinanced to long term, low rates. On top of that, they have removed or are removing debt tied to property. This is key as it gives plenty of maneuvering room.

    I think the 'taper talk' will keep a ceiling on REITs for some time, as the perception that interest rates will affect the industry will tamp down the price.

    For me, I sold out at near the top and waited for a new price floor (although I bought back in too early). At $38-39, O is a steal. At $42, I was a bit more cautious, since I know it will be cheaper when Mr Market overreacts. In the meantime, reinvesting monthly dividends is awesome.

    Long O, ARCP, HTA, LXP
    Nov 10, 2013. 10:23 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Gets Aligned [View article]
    Nice, thanks Phred. New rule: never hold mu through Q4 earnings.
    Oct 22, 2013. 04:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Earnings Guesstimates For Thursday [View article]
    The news is the debt default risk.
    Oct 8, 2013. 12:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Just Made A Huge Decision [View article]
    Great article. Thanks Ashraf for finding these presentations!
    Apr 14, 2013. 11:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Oil Sands: Sorry, But We Told You To Stay Away [View article]
    jerrydd,
    The initial environmental cost to produce batteries, regardless of how much coal fired electricity you use, make your elitist comments misinformed. Don't be so naïve. The world will burn the cheapest fuel, regardless of how dirty it is. The concept of a car beating another car in a drag race is moot.
    ~Copious
    Nov 28, 2014. 09:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Billions Withdrawn From Pimco Following Gross's Departure [View article]
    Its obviously more about extracting some of those billions of $ from Apple's balance sheet. I'm sure the U.S. is watching, drooling over the possibilities.
    Sep 29, 2014. 08:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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