Seeking Alpha

Jack Baker

Jack Baker
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Jack Baker's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Samsung's New SmartWatch Lineup An Interesting Experiment, Not Much More [View article]
    Craig,

    Your very good at projection, but the truth is that the party is over for Samsung. They are the ONLY OEM making Android phones that makes any money at it. And, their profits are declining. Apple has the biggest (and growing) market share in the states, 75% of all new phone purchases in Japan are iphones and Apple went from #6 in China to #3 in China in just the third quarter of last year. So, Apple is thriving in the three largest economies in the world. Also, Apple makes 85% of all global smart phone profits. Apple stock has rebounded from the high 300's all the way to the mid 500's. It is sitting right on it long term (10 year) trend line which has gone up quite nicely over the past 10 years. That is not likely to change now.
    Apr 9 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Hidden In Plain Sight: Apple Is Too Cheap [View article]
    Apple is in an "expectation bubble?" Really? Apple sells at a huge discount to the S & P. If Apple were in an expectations bubble it would sell at a premium to the market, not a discount. I think Apple is in a "show me" phase were no positive expectations are discounted into the price.
    Apr 9 03:03 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung's New SmartWatch Lineup An Interesting Experiment, Not Much More [View article]
    No one will be buying the Samsung BRICK watches. They have been a monumental flop for Samsung. Everyone is waiting to buy the real thing -- an iwatch. Samsung just reported a bad quarter. And, this is before they are about to get eviscerated by the iphone 6 and the iwatch. Things are not good at Samsung. I sense the party is over for them in mobile.
    Apr 8 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung's Recent Foibles Should Be Good For Apple [View article]
    That share increase came at the low-end of the market. Apple continues to clean Samsung's clock at the high-end.
    Apr 8 08:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung's Recent Foibles Should Be Good For Apple [View article]
    Um, the S5 has been met by the media and the public with a big "YAWN." Samsung is already giving them away with 2 for 1 deals and the phone just rolled-out. The S5 is an unmitigated disaster for Samsung.
    Apr 8 08:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Internal Apple docs show advertising, growth concerns [View news story]
    Number 1, Jeff Gundlach doesn't rate stocks. Number 2, his opinion had no impact on the stock the first time he opened his mouth. Number 3, Gundlach is a bond guy and has no track record investing in equities.
    Apr 7 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Internal Apple docs show advertising, growth concerns [View news story]
    GRojas,

    It's not all about the OS. It's about the complete ecosystem and Apple cleans Blackberry's clock on ecosystems. And, comparisons to Blackberry don't matter as Blackberry has insignificant market share. The smart phone market is a duopoly. It's only Apple and Samsung and the rest are insignificant. So, the only comparisons that need to be made are between those two.
    Apr 7 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Internal Apple docs show advertising, growth concerns [View news story]
    These court documents are quite illuminating. Schiller is quite a disappointment. He sends an e-mail to Media Arts bemoaning the fact that Samsung is beating on Apple even though Apple has better products. Does he do anything about it? No. Does he ask Media Arts to come-up with a clever add campaign to show why Apples ecosystem is superior to android's or why Apple phones are better than Samsung's? No. Does he fire Media Arts even thought they have been with Apple for 16 years and most companies fire their Ad Agencies every 2-3 years to get fresh ideas? No. He does nothing and allows Samsung to use Apple as their punching bag. What about an add highlighting how easy it is to upgrade you OS with Apple? How about an add that talks about how seamlessly interoperable Apple devices are? How about an add that talks about a stable and virtually virus-free OS? How about an add that talks about world-class customer service? How about an add that talks about a 64bit chip or a dedicated M7 chip for graphic performance? No. Nothing. Nada. We get warm fuzzy ads about a kid making a video of his families Christmas.

    I have read blogs from people that have worked within Apple that say that the marketing department drives everything within Apple. If this is true, then feckless Schiller has way too much power within Apple. Media Arts needs to go and so does Schiller.
    Apr 7 01:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    Bradmeister,

    Very well stated. Michael continues to beat the same drum. He does not understand Apple. The Apple story is about the Apple ecosystem. Anyone who thinks that most consumers goes down a list of features to pick their phone doesn't understand Apple or the marketplace. The longer people are in the Apple the ecosystem the more fiercely loyal they become and the more Apple devices they buy. I cracked my screen on my MacBook Pro a couple of weeks ago (my fault) and Apple replaced the screen for free ($700.00 value). I wonder what that experience would have been like at Best Buy had I done this with a PC? And, of course, that type of customer support is rarely factored in to cost of ownership.
    Apr 4 10:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, NXP, Synaptics, Maxim among S5 winners; display praised [View news story]
    Not preposterous at all given that Apple historically has sold 3 times more iPhone's than galaxies and that Apple sold more iPhone 5c's in q4 2013 than galaxies alone.
    Apr 2 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, NXP, Synaptics, Maxim among S5 winners; display praised [View news story]
    The iphone 6 will sell 5 times more units than the Galaxy 5. How will that be construed as a let down?
    Apr 1 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, NXP, Synaptics, Maxim among S5 winners; display praised [View news story]
    There are no winners if the phone doesn't sell well. All the reviews I have read are not too good. Where's the innovation? So far this phone had been met with a big YAWN.
    Mar 31 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street 'Bloodbath' Captured On Live TV [View article]
    Lou,

    I would have eaten this guys lunch in this battle.

    The basic tenant of his argument is that Apple's market share is declining. A few things to consider here. Firstly, no one knows what the actual market is because Samsung, that sells 70% of android devices, doesn't report unit sales. Secondly, the growth in the smart phone market has been greatly exsaggerated by companies like IDC and Strategy Analytics (paid Samsung shill) to include feature phones with smart capabilities sold to dirt poor people in dirt poor countries that lack the resources to actually use the smart features of their phones. These poor emerging countries is where most of the supposed android growth is coming from. But, it actually isn't. Apple's market share in the U.S. and China (the world's two most important markets) has been increasing. Further it is a specious argument to compare Apple to Android, as one is an end to end complete ecosystem with fully integrated devices and the other is an hugely fragmented, unstable, virus ridden sub-industry with many OEM's with their own proprietary bloatware on their devices.

    With regard to declining margins, Apple's margins have come down to normal levels (for Apple) from unsustainably high margins in 2012 and have stabilized for several quarters now. They are stable in the high 30's which is still double Samsung's gross margins.

    With regard to innovation, iPhones are the only phones with a 64 bit processor. They also have a dedicated M7 chip for the best graphics performance in the industry. Apple was first to introduce biometric security that actually WORKS. ibeacons is actually working for Apple customers right now in Apple stores globally. How is NFC working for Android? Retailers are abandoning it because it never took off on Android due to the fact that Android customer don't buy stuff. Apple customers have the money. As for different sizes not being innovation, that is true. But that argument should be turned on Samsung, who, in the absence of any innovation of their own after copying the iphone, decided that size was the only way they could differentiate themselves. Very soon, the only competitive advantage Samsung has will be taken away from them.

    With regard to top line growth, some on the street are modeling 15-20 billion in incremental sales just from the iwatch. Others, such as Barron's, are forecasting 20% top line growth from the iphone 6. This is before any other product categories such as iTV or mobile payment systems such as ibeacons. All of this, in the wake of a massive share repurchase program whereby Cook took 14 billion of stock off the market in the first quarter of this year alone.

    Your opponent said that Apple is only worth $300.00 a share. This is to say that Apple enterprise value is only $150.00 a share after cash. Really? Come on. The company will do close to 200 billion in sales this year, has 150 billion in cash and makes 40 billion a year in profits. If he were to apply the same valuation metrics to the S & P 500 he would come up with a ridiculous number.
    Mar 27 10:44 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Short-Term Caution Is Justified [View article]
    Bill,

    I think you underestimate the enthusiasm surrounding the iphone 6 launch. Even if it is in September and not earlier, the market will start to anticipate it much earlier and discount it into Apple's share price. Reports will start circulation about the supply chain and pictures will leak about a bigger phone. Numbers will start coming out with estimates about how many people will get sucked into the Apple ecosystem with a bigger phone. Once this buzz starts occurring it will be a "put" under the stock.

    Also, Cook is on record as saying he will announce "return of capital" plans to shareholders early in 2014. Well, early in 2014 is ending soon.

    What about MSFT Office for iPad that is supposed to be announced in 2 days?

    Add any production hype surrounding an iwatch or improved Apple TV to add fuel to the fire.

    Yes, if Apple misses estimates or guides lower that could provide a brief buying opportunity. But, there is no guarantee that is going to happen. I think that the fact that Oppenhiemer was replaced by Maestri is significant. Not much has been written on this. Maestri has a track record of creating shareholder value as a CFO. He is the complete antithesis of Oppenheimer. People will learn how significant this is over the next year.
    Mar 25 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Desperate Moves Won't Save It From Stale Product Lines [View article]
    Oh, Michael.

    The "facts" are that once people are in the Apple ecosystem, they stay in the ecosystem. You are also wrong about the cost of the phones. The cost of owning an iphone over time is much lower than owning a galaxy or a note or a HTC1. Why? resale value. Apple owners just roll the money they make off of selling their old phone into the cost of upgrading. So the cost of ownership over time for iPhone users is significantly lower than another other OEM and the consumer gets the best phone and the best ecosystem in the world. JD Power just rated Apple as having the best customer service for the 9th straight year. 80% of all Chinese view the iphone as the best smart phone in the market. Failing to innovate? Lol, come on. The iphone is the only phone with a 64 bit chip and biometric identification that works reliably. And what innovation has Samsung, HTC or Blackberry come out with? I live in Manhattan (where people have money) and almost everyone I see has an iphone -- including the wealthy tourists. I do see Android phones when I come across kids with no money and taxi drivers.
    Mar 25 11:41 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
886 Comments
2,704 Likes