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CBEY - Reported churn rates hide more than they reveal.
In response to Maklo,
1. My analysis covered the mid-2006 to mid-2009 period. During the first half of this period, small businesses were doing pretty well actually. So any downtick in the 2nd half should have been cancelled out by boom time in the 1st half.
2. Is there a reason to believe that small businesses will go back to their prosperous ways in the next few years or will the creation of new small businesses increase?
3. Could you point me to a few instances where the management has claimed or implied that "churn has stayed consistent at about 40-50 bps per month"? Even if this is true, isn't it the case that small businesses continue to operate in a very harsh environment and the "involuntary churn" will likely stay the same or even go up as contracts end?
Sep 1, 2010. 09:19 AM
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