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  • The Commodity Collapse Continues [View instapost]
    While it gives comfort to imagine that China will go the way of Japan, I "fear" China's size, its "DNA" of not respecting established laws, rules, commercial "behaviours", "mutual IP respect" and a determined focus to encourage its peoples to spread themselves all over the world, permanently, to trade, distribute and invest to extend "China Inc" regardless of size among so many other reasons, gives me pause.
    Its significantly larger size, in almost every respect these days, including continuing-to-mount savings, allows it a clout that Japan, and increasingly these days, even Europe and USA do not have.
    Their market presence in "private branded" but China manufactured, products in all manner of consumer, industrial goods in both developed as well as ROW markets is not, ever going to be lost. They are determined to stay, and unlike Japan, they "own and manipulate" their own distribution system, practically end-to-end.
    I wish your forecast were the more likely one, though.
    Great reading, always interesting insights.
    Nov 29, 2015. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Reasons Biotech Will Outperform In 2016 [View instapost]
    Happy Thanksgiving Holidays, it is one of those years when it makes sense to pause and truly give Thanks for what we've received.
    Nov 25, 2015. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer-Allergan: One High P/E Stock Buys An Even Higher P/E Stock; Gilead Remains The Most Attractive Large Cap Pharma Stock [View instapost]
    While not at all disagreeing with the article's core assertions, I "feel" the CEO's of both companies, are masters at their game, and are in this almost "end-game" with all their senses turned on. Unless the Treasury and/or anti-trust authorities throw some imponderable spanners, there is a outlier case to be made that this seeming "crazy" act by the two CEO's may actually turn out to be the ultimate "alchemistic" class act: finance, top class pharma management, treasury management, operational excellence, and yes, keen eye on acquiring new promising drugs using the sheer size of the merged entity, minus, eventually, the "generic" carveout!

    May we live in exciting times, as the new pharma, it seems, is no longer going to be anything like the old pharma.
    Nov 23, 2015. 07:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Possible Barron's Bouncers Monday [View instapost]
    Have you or anyone else followed the fortunes of a Swiss company called Santhera Pharma (SANN.SW), which is also in an advanced stage to produce a drug for the treatment of the same indication, i.e. DMD. Given its market cap is only <$600m, it may be an interesting play.
    Nov 22, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic Problems With Valeant's Valuation, With Comments On Recent News [View article]
    Another excellent article, but to most of us ordinary folks VRX Senior Management didn't ever have a "good look and feel" about them, esp how they handled their aborted AGN takeover.

    But a lot of ordinary folks do have a stake in the "new" AGN, even if we all know that Actavis seemed to have been in too much of a hurry to get past the post with digesting "olde" AGN.

    Which leads me to wonder "what if some of the worst practices or habits of VRX did get transplanted to the new AGN?"
    Oct 22, 2015. 02:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Valeant Pharmaceuticals Really An Enron Fraud? - Thoughts From An Ex-Drug Chemist [View article]
    I wonder how much of the "discoveries" of the shenanigans at Valeant will also be revealed at the likes of Allergan, since Actavis paid such a hefty premium over Valeant for the "olde" Allergan.
    Oct 22, 2015. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unigroup Role In Western Digital, SanDisk Deal? [View article]
    Also useful to note that the Chairman of Inotera, a JV Partner of Micron recently left adorable Taiwan's shores to join Unigroup in Beijing. This means Tsinghua not just interested in NAND, but also DRAM.
    Oct 22, 2015. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota's Green Future Not That Far-Fetched [View article]
    Alas, it is interesting to have an oil expert share an entirely contrary view (even if it embedded) of dimming prospects for oil&gas over the next 20-35 years. It does change the accepted view of the world on so many things, but best of all, I dare say, it could portend an entirely new "human condition", across the world?
    Oct 20, 2015. 04:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Economy Is Undergoing A Huge Transformation That No One's Talking About [View article]
    When one makes one's own claims about his or her own "high IQ", it is a no brainer to anyone else to see that it is pathetic, just plain pathetic.

    For as far as the eye can see, China's economic problems are not going to get better, and just shouting from the top of the Great Wall that China's transition to a consumer-driven economy is just going to "noise".

    Based on my own very brief visit to China, it was not hard to see that everyone is only busy saving for a rainy day, as they now fear tomorrow is going to get worse than today, and it is better to save what they receive than spend, and worse, many are looking all sorts of ways to just leave......permanently.
    Oct 19, 2015. 02:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Bottom Is In [View article]
    It is great to read your bullish turn on the Company again, and even if you've been consistent with your pro views on the Company over many quarters, too many of us have been hurt badly by the consistent failure of their meeting earnings estimates.

    Let's hope the 2 new technology advances which are ready to revenue soon, make all the difference in 2016. All the M&A buzz could well be the icing....
    Oct 15, 2015. 02:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Biotech Will Bottom In October [View article]
    Another great, direct "forecast" of outlook article. It is so, so tempting to sit on the sidelines, as there seem to be few battlelines wrt the US economy when seen from a populist perspective. I "fear" the battlelines will be clearly drawn within the Parties, and later, between the GOP and the Democrats.

    Somehow, during this difficult time for the middle class, they have to be drawn into battle, and drug prices, esp with the likes of many M&Aed companies of late likely trying to sneak in price increases of every description.
    Oct 15, 2015. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SanDisk: The Acquisition Target [View article]
    To my mind, this entire seeming "endgame" leads me to worry about China Inc., i.e. its desire to want any form of IP or process technology involving DRAM and NAND in every form, regardless the cost.

    Just a few months ago, even SPSN was "swallowed" by Cypress, which too had some good IP. Don't know who manufactures their chips, but it is likely one of the 3 or 4 remaining suspects.

    It'd be interesting how this game plays out, as Unigroup is unlikely to not demand its ton of flesh.....and of course, all the anti-trust authorities in USA, Europe and China!
    Oct 15, 2015. 01:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SanDisk: The Acquisition Target [View article]
    If so, anyone other than MU and/or Intel (or SK Hynix or Sammie) swooping in on SNDK is going to be only paying likely lots of $s for an acquisition that is on a losing race in key areas such as 3D NAND, 3DX and even the software connecting all of this to the logic chips, be they in X86 or ARM architecture?
    Oct 15, 2015. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SanDisk: The Acquisition Target [View article]
    Is it at all relevant whether Intel "approves" this deal, given it has an alliance with WDC?
    Oct 15, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts Before Extended Business Trip [View article]
    Re:" China has succeeded in stabilizing its equity market and spurring a bond market rally."

    Disagree, as I feel that the underlying financials across many sectors, from housing, SOE financials, consumer spending are nowhere near becoming stable. Further, China still believes its way forward is to regulate centrally everything that moves, produces, even thinks, and this approach may be unravelling.

    Just read yesterday that Chinese millionaires are leaving China permanently in droves, saying goodbye to their homeland forever.

    All this leads me to feel the worst is not over for China, EMs, as well as practically all developed markets, inc. USofA.

    Still, I'm sure your trip will unravel many known and unknown unknowns about arguably the 2 most opaque markets in Asia.
    Oct 15, 2015. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment