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  • China dips into foreign-exchange reserves by $99.5B in January  [View news story]
    And not counting China's "vanishing" Billions all being "put to work" overseas in the form of:
    - some of the finest real estate in some of the choiciest areas of the world, from Canada, USA, Australia, UK, SEAsia, and even parts of UK and Spain, Portugal, France, Norway and previously Eastern Europe;
    - quietly, but firmly targeted investments in choice, strategic companies in key industries from resources, energy, technology, food (incl. venerable Syngenta), automotive, and white goods (such as Haier or Midea acquiring out Electrolux, even at a ridiculous price compared to what GE was prepared to pay), the list goes on and on; and of course,
    - thousands of Chinese emigrating overseas along with these "reserves" outflows, but always linking back to China for imports of its manufactured goods which they distribute, repair, maintain in remote parts of the world, from Africa, Latam, Europe, Asia......there is literally no space left behind by the Chinese in their quest for investment opportunities overseas, as long as they can themselves own it, run it and control it.

    In short, these surprising and shock and awe(ful) outflows may not be a bad thing, if the reports can actually incorporate the "assets" side of these outflows, as they are not being wasted, but instead, extend to allow China Inc. to expand its commercial and industrial interests on a truly global basis.
    Feb 7, 2016. 01:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Boeing 737 MAX Is Not Winning Market Share For Boeing  [View article]
    It seems, in the short term, the clear winner could be GE, as its engine is ready to power the entire range of aircraft vs the struggles UTX (and RR) seem to be having getting their engines to work with the hugely popular Airbus NEO planes?
    Feb 6, 2016. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau issues soft Q1/2016 guidance; shares now -44.8%  [View news story]
    Not so fast.....I think you should read this first, and better still, listen to him, as I have on previous conference calls....I thought he definitely had a French connection, but as I said previously, I was entirely "charmed" by it, but him coming from Wisconsin, I have my doubts, then again, he could be a true "marvel".

    http://bloom.bg/1NTMDGQ

    I just think it is too compelling an area for the likes of Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, CRM, etc to let DATA "have their lunch", as it is becoming so core to what spreadsheets, dashboards, and yes, even enterprise apps do "for a living".

    Good luck if you wish to dive into DATA today, maybe the valuation is truly compelling, but for me, Mr. Chabot, for now at least, was too much of a charmer. BTW, did he pitch up for yesterday's conference call, if not why not?
    Feb 5, 2016. 05:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: Is The Selloff Justified?  [View article]
    As someone who has flown on 747s and 777s often enough, and the 737 and even the 707s and 727s, I imagined the 787 to be a true "Dreamliner" in terms of comfort, etc for the economy class passenger. Therefore, am surprised at your preference. Do you care to elaborate why you'd rather fly the 747 than the 787.....unless of course, you are an always 747 upper deck PAX, in which case, I understand completely.
    Feb 4, 2016. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau issues soft Q1/2016 guidance; shares now -44.8%  [View news story]
    Some months ago, I was almost "charmed" into buying Tableau, as the highly articulate French-accented CEO was very convincing about his company's prospects in BI across many key verticals.

    But I was continuously nagged by the thought that this entire BI software "stack", is such a natural adjacency extension to every Database and/or Enterprise App vendor, how could they leave DATA alone to "eat their lunch". This thought was all the more nagging when the CEO kept talking about how limiting it is to perform BI work on Excel models.....and DATA would replace all those spreadsheets, while I kept thinking 'is Mr. Softee really going to allow them to do this, given that they were just a hop, skip and a jump from Microsoft's HQ in the same state?

    In sum, I believe the stock's decline needs to be really understood, and the BI space's prospects going forward well analysed before any of the vendors, i.e SPLK, DATA, QLIK, and of course, even privately held SAS could be considered investment candidates, even at these prices.

    My own "feel" is for ORCL (not mentioned in the above article), and MSFT with the BI (and so many other) mojo! CRM seems a "flawless diamond" right now in terms of its financial performance and its stock price valuation, but bears watching (pun intended), as again, its adjacencies seem so limited, esp vs the likes of ORCL, MSFT and to a limited extent, SAP.
    Feb 4, 2016. 08:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mondelez: A Stable Dividend Growth Food Stock  [View article]
    Any update to your article, given today's news?
    Feb 3, 2016. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vietnam: Investors Should Really Keep Their Eyes On The Stock Market  [View article]
    Even if Vietnam's prospects seem bright in comparison to other countries, near and far, one has to consider:
    - its heavy reliance on oil&gas for a large portion of FX earnings; and
    - its tension with its domineering northern neighbour, which could cause it all manner of political, social and of course, economic hardships; and of course,
    - the mysterious (to the outsider) ways by which the recent political 'regime' change was seemingly unexpectedly effected, and whether this change could have disruptive effects on the overall economic performance.

    Wth so much turmoil in China, is it not tempting to think if China has a cold, might Vietnam catch a 'flu'?
    Feb 2, 2016. 08:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: Is The Selloff Justified?  [View article]
    Oh no, I did not meaning moving the whole BA out of the US, just doing the obvious like what so many, like Intel, Microsoft, Starbucks, even Mondelez do to "tax efficientlz protect" non-domestic earnings from penal tax rates in the US or even elsewhere.
    Jan 31, 2016. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Crashed 9%: Does It Make Sense?  [View article]
    Posted elsewhere: "The one striking feature of BA's Q4 earnings report is the 27% tax rate for 2015 vs 23% for 2014 and a planned tax rate of 30% for 2016. With so much non-domestic business, and likely to increase faster than domestic in the years to come, surely there must be potential to "invert" some portions of the non-US profits, esp as so much outsourcing has already been done to both US and non-US entities with manufacturing (and distribution) facilities outside the US."

    I keep ranting on about the spares and services business, but I feel, with so much more installed base of old planes still in service, incl. some owned by LCCs whose utilisation levels will inevitably necessitate more spares and services, I keep thinking why isn't BA's total revenues increasing at a faster rate than is the case.

    In short, great focus should be placed on revenues derivable from the installed base as well as those from the new ones, and where there are opportunities to "tax protect" foreign earnings from US corporate taxes, legally of course, this action should be taken, with or without the help of its key suppliers with foreign manufacturing operations.
    Jan 31, 2016. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: Is The Selloff Justified?  [View article]
    The one striking feature of BA's Q4 earnings report is the 27% tax rate for 2015 vs 23% for 2014 and a planned tax rate of 30% for 2016. With so much non-domestic business, and likely to increase faster than domestic in the years to come, surely there must be potential to "invert" some portions of the non-US profits, esp as so much outsourcing has already been done to both US and non-US entities with manufacturing (and distribution) facilities outside the US.
    Jan 31, 2016. 08:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Matthews Asia: Surviving China's Volatility  [View article]
    This is the URL I wished to have included in my earlier reply, which includes the video of Ms. Yang's analysis:

    http://tinyurl.com/z5u...
    Jan 26, 2016. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Is Still In A Hot Spot  [View article]
    As European weather slowly but surely turns quite rapidly more 'springish', the refugee problem come Easter may turn out to be a mega-disaster, when all bets are off in terms of how the EU deals with the flood of new would be migrants to Europe.

    It seems to me that the only practical solution available is to hammer out a peace agreement among the warring parties by mid-Feb, including "payouts" to whoever is to paid off to keep the people back, and put the gates up solid, whether it be in Greece or Macedonia, or indeed elsewhere.

    With so much pressure, I wonder if the US, Europe and Russia can do anything else but get together to "crash" an agresment so that the EU survives, even if it is in a permanently weakened state.
    Jan 25, 2016. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Matthews Asia: Surviving China's Volatility  [View article]
    Since Ms. Anne Stevenson-Yang seems to have been more correct more often than being wrong, and her assertions seem very well researched and well grounded, I feel the above article should be read together with her latest video on the Chinese stockmarket, recorded on Jan 13th.
    Jan 25, 2016. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Move Markets Higher?  [View instapost]
    BJ, you have provided the most insightful and well reasoned thoughts over the past few weeks, initially advising caution BEFORE the markets swooned in such unbelievably ugly fashion, and recently, "fear-filled optimism" to rush back into the markets, even when there was so much blood on the streets.

    If the next few weeks continue to pan out as they have last few days, you'd have earned a unique set of stripes that even the likes of Mr. Larry Fink of BlackRock, as he expected the "blood" factor to continue for another 10% more.

    For the likes of me, who are perennially rued by fear that the world is regularly treading dangerous waters, with very few places to hide when things get ugly anywhere around the world, and with only occasional relief in terms of good news these days, I "feel" I should just listen to you, and not try to second guess, based on my own instincts.

    If I'm not mistaken, you've likely outdistanced practically every other Contributor at SA, in terms of quantity, quality and best of all, that rare commodity these days, real "profit generating, innovating" ideas, thoughts and suggestions.....even if it is to bravely advise to "get out" for a while.

    Congratulations, and may you continue your winning ways at SA in the days, months and years ahead.
    Jan 24, 2016. 08:35 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FX Outlook: New Phase Has Begun  [View article]
    The currency that I found most intriguing last week was the RUB, as it seemed to behave in ways that perhaps no other currency has done in recent years. I wonder if you have a view on how it would behave going forward, or is it now a currency that we could safely lump with AUD, NZD, MXN as just another commodity currency whose torso is simply wagged by the enormous tail, i.e. the price of oil, and oh yes, Chinese capital and FX markets?
    Jan 24, 2016. 04:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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