Intel Can Give Apple The Edge In Mobile [View article]
Although I am not technologist, I question whether it is that easy to move either the iPhone or iPad chip production so easily away from Samsung to Intel. Samsung, as the leading end-to-end manufacturer of smartphones, provides Apple core technologies beyond the APU, i.e. camera, display, memory, connectivity and some key features that are unique to a smartphone or a tablet. Intel is at best a novice in all of these key areas, and I feel the writer has not taken this key factor into account.
It is also useful to remember that Samsung's long lasting symbiotic relationship with Qualcomm gives it favourable royalty rates for 4G and LTE IP, which Apple enjoys automatically, while it would be a fresh start with Intel.
When it comes to acquisitions of listed companies like ARUN and PANW, my take from the conference call is that they have enough engineers working on any leading edge technologies to provide a total solution to their corporate customer base. This is because, I felt, Chambers indicated: a) they've learnt to move faster than ever before; b) they have lots of internal technology capabilities to get what they want, if they don't have it in their arsenal; d) wireless is an extremely exciting high growth market for them, and they will do whatever it takes to get the missing techologies, like that sort ARUN has; and finally e) they must substantial procurement clout, on the likes of BRCM, JDSU, etc to be able to purchase components at much cheaper prices than what their competitors can get. In short, I've not "heard" Chambers being so self-confident in a long time, esp when he usually tends to "pack" enough arsenal to deliver a great quarter for the next reporting period, yes their Q4.
Apple, Android, And The Future Of The Smartphone [View article]
I agree with your assertions about Apple's margin risks, but as for Samsung, disagree, for the following reasons:
a) their marketing prowess, built over the years in high growth emerging markets is unparalleled, and no competitor, whether it be Apple or Nokia can match its "draw" and "appeal"; b) they control most of the most precious core smartphone and adjacent technologies in house, whether it is the core chip design, camera, display, modem, memory, even layered software (above Android "kernel") all of which gives the company unparalleled scale to compete and compete aggressively c) I actually think they are the most natural "sleeping partner" for Qualcomm, worldwide, a mutually beneficial association that has existed almost from Qualcomm's inception; d) Samsung's product offering is wide, deep and well tuned to each market they serve, either on a geographical or customer type basis; e) they are engaging in local markets with app developers, to develop apps for everything from taxis, hospitals, schools, govt to become the preferred form factor in emerging markets. I have not seen Apple surge to embrace this 'low margin, high volume' apps business, as you can see indirectly in its relative lack of success in China; f) Samsung's valuations along key metrics such as PBR, PSR are still reasonable, and it is useful to remember that they are already on a lower margin business model, vs Apple's traditional high end margin model; g) Google too, funnily enough, except for China, knows how to adapt and "move with the times" in emerging markets, esp when it comes to Search-based Ads, and increasingly, Maps-derived Apps; and finally h) I would not underestimate the "Korean national DNA" for one minute, as it is more aggressive, more creative, more adaptive, more "with it" than just about every other culture in the world today. This factor has been, over the years, hugely underestimated by Apple's management, in particular, much to their cost (and profits).
Next Gen Game Consoles: Winners And Losers [View article]
Alas, perhaps your "dream" platform is a PC-power console, but played with a large 3D screen.....and is that the late SJ's much dreamed of Apple TV. Methinks, maybe, perhaps, the impossible is going to be possible, thanks to ARM, Imagination Technologies, Samsung, Apple, Google, Intel, and yes......AMD.
I'm very grateful for your insights, but could you 'dive deep'er.....like let's let imagination run wild, it almost costs nothing, and the returns, to put it mildly, could be stratospheric.
Unlike some writers who hog the space with a lot of their own 'bias', one spends valuable time on this website only because, one realises, like you, quite humbly, there are so many unknown unknowns, and it is our "job" to figure out what the likely "slants" or "tails" could be on these unknown unknowns.
Next Gen Game Consoles: Winners And Losers [View article]
Appreciate very much your insight.....it makes me think perhaps, there are many investment ideas from your short comment.....I keep thinking why is the PC superior to the console, is it: - better CPU speed; - better graphics speed; - better display; - better form factor; and last but not least, - your own 'bias".
Grateful for your thoughts, including whether ARM could eventually be a disrupter in the console space.
Next Gen Game Consoles: Winners And Losers [View article]
Although the article does not mention it, I feel Apple will have some gaming features in its highly anticipated, new Apple TV platform. If so, it begs the question as to whose "graphics" capability it will incorporate, as it seems highly unlikely that it would develop this on its own.
In addition, even if smartphones cannot "play" high end games, won't tablets be able to, and if so, doesn't AMD have a chance to crack this opportunity, esp for higher end tablets, whether made by Apple, Microsoft (Surface) or Android players like Samsung?
ARM Holdings: Learning From My Mistakes [View article]
Ashraf,
While I appreciate very much your sincerity in "mea culpa"ing your strong views on ARM vs Intel for some 1+ years, I would appreciate it very much if you could articulate on the following key questions that will independently influence ARM's engineering and financial success:
a) per the last earnings conference call, they declared that they are seeing significant demand from many telecom chip suppliers (such as Broadcom) to convert X86 or other platform based communication chips to the ARM platform, in order to save significant amounts of power consumption, cooling requirements and maintenance costs on complex communication switches, etc;
b) ARM's self-invented "internet of everything" vision envisages a place for ARM-based low power, low heat generating chips going into automobile, home appliances, factory floor ASICS, etc etc;
c) to a believer like me, ARM's mantra of charging a low royalty rate, but sharing its chip design core technologies (focused on being first in class on the 2 key metrics, low power, low heat) across the entire spectrum of chip designers/users (from Apple to the likes of Samsung, LG, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Toyota, Ford, Honeywell, Boeing, GE, etc etc) means that they will be the only player standing in being able to feed off an "eco-system" that spreads across all of the "connected internet";
d) I do see and "feel" a number of Asian chip designers as well as manufacturers, names that are not world brand names yet, but of course, TSMC, Samsung are among them (and look out for SMI in the months to come) are going to "pull" ARM ahead, so that it is no longer a direct competitor to Intel, but is instead the peerless "low power, low heat emitting" chip designer across the entire semiconductor user universe; and finally,
e) although I have no actual figures to give you, I feel Intel's organisation has become too bloated and top heavy to provide competitively priced chip design or fabbing facilities across the "internet of everything" eco-system. I imagine ARM's chip engineer compensation structure is a lot lower than Intel's, they are younger engineers, and they do not have "not invented/processed here" ails, that seems to be so much Intel's problem these days, in my view.
None of the financial metrics from the above growth areas can be quantified yet, as it is going to be determined by a number of simultaneously moving parts, but nowhere is Intel (or for that matter, AMD) declaring itself to want to participate across such a broad spectrum. Perhaps this is the sole reason one should not underestimate ARM?
With SDN, Cisco Will Unlock Value Of Installed Hardware Worth $180 Billion [View article]
With so much happening in the "cloud" as well as data storage moving from SAN/NAS (disk) storage farms to "in memory" databases running on solid-state drives, isn't there a risk that Cisco has missed the boat in terms of moving away from hardware switching to doing "everything", i.e. switching, storing, moving data, "controlling", etc entirely or primarily on the software stack?
I keep thinking of the likes of Mellanox, F5, Fusion-IO, even HP and Dell and a host of other vendors who've come in to fill a new paradigm.
I've long maintained that the movement to Cloud computing and desktop virtualisation, along with the introduction of Windows 8 will have profound, long term but overall, positive impact on Microsoft's business model:
a) as KKOO points out, the entire corporate installed base is gradually, but certainly moving towards a site/country/corporate wide annual license base, which "embeds" within the license fee everything from Windows license, as well outsourcing to Microsoft (or their local partner) key aspects of security, application maintenance, "cloud" hardware and even IT management; b) Windows 8 effectively embeds virtual but permanent "tethering" of every customer to Microsoft, as Microsoft "knows" who the user is, where he/she is, and most importantly, whether their licence is legal or not; c) Microsoft is increasingly increasing its "legal" licence base, esp in endemic "pirate software" markets such as BRIC countries, etc. Although no data have been published on this key statistic, it is clear that Microsoft is rapidly closing in on this problem, not only for new licenses, but the entire base of PCs in the world; and finally d) it is almost impossible to "split" Microsoft revenues per corporate customer back to Windows, Office, Outlook, Lynch, Server & Tools, etc as the company is almost paranoiachally forcing its way into IT Depts' budgets, on the premise of lower cost per user, higher maintenance and of course, "outsourcing" key operations to the Microsoft eco-system.
Overall though, I am convinced Windows 8 is the final frontier for Microsoft to leverage key aspects of office productivity (eg mail, spreadsheets, etc), application development, security, etc to secure long term, annuity style revenues from corporate customers worldwide. This means, one will not be able to analyse Windows revenue performance from the outside......
Jamie Dimon will hold a town hall-style meeting with junior bank examiners from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency next week in an effort to "answer all staff inquiries." According to WSJ, the meeting comes on the heels of an earlier meeting with senior examiners during which Dimon was told that "regulators don't trust [the firm's] management" and believe JPM simply "isn't getting the message." Scrutiny seems to be coming to a head (I, II) lately just as Dimon is set to face shareholders this month. [View news story]
It seems the "system" is out to get him, however long and whichever way it takes......here we actually have a working bank, with lots of complexity and risks, etc, but the bank is a leading brand name of US capitalism, and yes, even international banking.
Jamie Dimon is one of the most experienced bankers in the world today, and I would argue he has learnt some hard lessons during the past 12 months on managing the "system" as well as the bank.
I hope he survives this onslaught, and JPM goes on to become the name everyone thinks of as a model, modern, global bank.
Advanced Micro Devices Does Something Incredibly Right [View article]
My intuition tells me there is more to it than meets the eye.....Intel, being the proverbial paranoichal company it claims is its real DNA, could not/ would not walk away from "low" margin opportunities if it was compensated by hugely "high" volumes, esp if it permits to keep competition from biting its rear end.
This is especially so since Intel's stock price has been in "wait state" mode for some 12 years, apart from brief spurts due to overenthusiastic investors piling on their technology advances.....
Krzanich Not The Big Intel Announcement [View article]
Although it seems intuitive that Apple can solve many problems by buying up Intel, it seems to me, going forward, smarter if Apple just buys AMD instead, for the following reasons:
a) it is 1/20th the price, along with none of the baggage of PC-related foundries; b) it should, in my opinion, get the best chip designer for the future of Apple's stock price, the Apple TV. AMD is very, very capable of designing chips for the burgeoning smart TV industry, and will provide Apple a "fresh" design look vs refreshes of either Samsung's or recently, Intel's smart TV platforms; c) as Apple has to find an alternative platform for Apple's chip fabs, it might find it convenient to treat, long term, AMD as a "half way house" from Apple's in house chip design capabilities to handing over to AMD the "core" design requirements, before giving the final design to say, Glo Flo (in lieu of or in addition to TSM); d) just as AMD is hungry to succeed or die quickly, Apple can inject a level of energy into AMD that it finally has a "saviour" to throttle its expensive "dreams" forward instead of having to constantly play second fiddle to Intel; and who knows, e) AMD in Apple's hands may be a better outcome for Apple than AMD ending up in Microsoft's lap!
Advanced Micro Devices Does Something Incredibly Right [View article]
Since this seems such an obvious area for anyone to exploit so far, why is it that Intel has not moved aggressively into this market? I would have thought that Intel, with a marketcap some 20 times the size of AMD's, along with their proclaimed "process" advantage, will be the first to "get there" in this emerging area, even if they were to start today, now that the new CEO has been announced?
Why Microsoft Stock Is Going Up Despite Windows 8 Going Down [View article]
Never knew this "angle" you present, but pray tell us, how does the new world of regular updates to the software franchise (Win 8, Office, Server, etc) as opposed to planned new version releases change this issue of "trying to implement and work" with Microsoft APIs in the future?
Intel Can Give Apple The Edge In Mobile [View article]
It is also useful to remember that Samsung's long lasting symbiotic relationship with Qualcomm gives it favourable royalty rates for 4G and LTE IP, which Apple enjoys automatically, while it would be a fresh start with Intel.
Cisco: Reversing The 'ABC' Trend [View article]
Cisco Is On Target To Reach $40 [View article]
a) they've learnt to move faster than ever before;
b) they have lots of internal technology capabilities to get what they want, if they don't have it in their arsenal;
d) wireless is an extremely exciting high growth market for them, and they will do whatever it takes to get the missing techologies, like that sort ARUN has; and finally
e) they must substantial procurement clout, on the likes of BRCM, JDSU, etc to be able to purchase components at much cheaper prices than what their competitors can get.
In short, I've not "heard" Chambers being so self-confident in a long time, esp when he usually tends to "pack" enough arsenal to deliver a great quarter for the next reporting period, yes their Q4.
Apple, Android, And The Future Of The Smartphone [View article]
a) their marketing prowess, built over the years in high growth emerging markets is unparalleled, and no competitor, whether it be Apple or Nokia can match its "draw" and "appeal";
b) they control most of the most precious core smartphone and adjacent technologies in house, whether it is the core chip design, camera, display, modem, memory, even layered software (above Android "kernel") all of which gives the company unparalleled scale to compete and compete aggressively
c) I actually think they are the most natural "sleeping partner" for Qualcomm, worldwide, a mutually beneficial association that has existed almost from Qualcomm's inception;
d) Samsung's product offering is wide, deep and well tuned to each market they serve, either on a geographical or customer type basis;
e) they are engaging in local markets with app developers, to develop apps for everything from taxis, hospitals, schools, govt to become the preferred form factor in emerging markets. I have not seen Apple surge to embrace this 'low margin, high volume' apps business, as you can see indirectly in its relative lack of success in China;
f) Samsung's valuations along key metrics such as PBR, PSR are still reasonable, and it is useful to remember that they are already on a lower margin business model, vs Apple's traditional high end margin model;
g) Google too, funnily enough, except for China, knows how to adapt and "move with the times" in emerging markets, esp when it comes to Search-based Ads, and increasingly, Maps-derived Apps; and finally
h) I would not underestimate the "Korean national DNA" for one minute, as it is more aggressive, more creative, more adaptive, more "with it" than just about every other culture in the world today. This factor has been, over the years, hugely underestimated by Apple's management, in particular, much to their cost (and profits).
Next Gen Game Consoles: Winners And Losers [View article]
I'm very grateful for your insights, but could you 'dive deep'er.....like let's let imagination run wild, it almost costs nothing, and the returns, to put it mildly, could be stratospheric.
Unlike some writers who hog the space with a lot of their own 'bias', one spends valuable time on this website only because, one realises, like you, quite humbly, there are so many unknown unknowns, and it is our "job" to figure out what the likely "slants" or "tails" could be on these unknown unknowns.
Next Gen Game Consoles: Winners And Losers [View article]
- better CPU speed;
- better graphics speed;
- better display;
- better form factor; and last but not least,
- your own 'bias".
Grateful for your thoughts, including whether ARM could eventually be a disrupter in the console space.
Next Gen Game Consoles: Winners And Losers [View article]
In addition, even if smartphones cannot "play" high end games, won't tablets be able to, and if so, doesn't AMD have a chance to crack this opportunity, esp for higher end tablets, whether made by Apple, Microsoft (Surface) or Android players like Samsung?
ARM Holdings: Learning From My Mistakes [View article]
While I appreciate very much your sincerity in "mea culpa"ing your strong views on ARM vs Intel for some 1+ years, I would appreciate it very much if you could articulate on the following key questions that will independently influence ARM's engineering and financial success:
a) per the last earnings conference call, they declared that they are seeing significant demand from many telecom chip suppliers (such as Broadcom) to convert X86 or other platform based communication chips to the ARM platform, in order to save significant amounts of power consumption, cooling requirements and maintenance costs on complex communication switches, etc;
b) ARM's self-invented "internet of everything" vision envisages a place for ARM-based low power, low heat generating chips going into automobile, home appliances, factory floor ASICS, etc etc;
c) to a believer like me, ARM's mantra of charging a low royalty rate, but sharing its chip design core technologies (focused on being first in class on the 2 key metrics, low power, low heat) across the entire spectrum of chip designers/users (from Apple to the likes of Samsung, LG, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Toyota, Ford, Honeywell, Boeing, GE, etc etc) means that they will be the only player standing in being able to feed off an "eco-system" that spreads across all of the "connected internet";
d) I do see and "feel" a number of Asian chip designers as well as manufacturers, names that are not world brand names yet, but of course, TSMC, Samsung are among them (and look out for SMI in the months to come) are going to "pull" ARM ahead, so that it is no longer a direct competitor to Intel, but is instead the peerless "low power, low heat emitting" chip designer across the entire semiconductor user universe; and finally,
e) although I have no actual figures to give you, I feel Intel's organisation has become too bloated and top heavy to provide competitively priced chip design or fabbing facilities across the "internet of everything" eco-system. I imagine ARM's chip engineer compensation structure is a lot lower than Intel's, they are younger engineers, and they do not have "not invented/processed here" ails, that seems to be so much Intel's problem these days, in my view.
None of the financial metrics from the above growth areas can be quantified yet, as it is going to be determined by a number of simultaneously moving parts, but nowhere is Intel (or for that matter, AMD) declaring itself to want to participate across such a broad spectrum. Perhaps this is the sole reason one should not underestimate ARM?
With SDN, Cisco Will Unlock Value Of Installed Hardware Worth $180 Billion [View article]
I keep thinking of the likes of Mellanox, F5, Fusion-IO, even HP and Dell and a host of other vendors who've come in to fill a new paradigm.
Where Are The Missing PCs? [View article]
a) as KKOO points out, the entire corporate installed base is gradually, but certainly moving towards a site/country/corporate wide annual license base, which "embeds" within the license fee everything from Windows license, as well outsourcing to Microsoft (or their local partner) key aspects of security, application maintenance, "cloud" hardware and even IT management;
b) Windows 8 effectively embeds virtual but permanent "tethering" of every customer to Microsoft, as Microsoft "knows" who the user is, where he/she is, and most importantly, whether their licence is legal or not;
c) Microsoft is increasingly increasing its "legal" licence base, esp in endemic "pirate software" markets such as BRIC countries, etc. Although no data have been published on this key statistic, it is clear that Microsoft is rapidly closing in on this problem, not only for new licenses, but the entire base of PCs in the world; and finally
d) it is almost impossible to "split" Microsoft revenues per corporate customer back to Windows, Office, Outlook, Lynch, Server & Tools, etc as the company is almost paranoiachally forcing its way into IT Depts' budgets, on the premise of lower cost per user, higher maintenance and of course, "outsourcing" key operations to the Microsoft eco-system.
Overall though, I am convinced Windows 8 is the final frontier for Microsoft to leverage key aspects of office productivity (eg mail, spreadsheets, etc), application development, security, etc to secure long term, annuity style revenues from corporate customers worldwide. This means, one will not be able to analyse Windows revenue performance from the outside......
Jamie Dimon will hold a town hall-style meeting with junior bank examiners from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency next week in an effort to "answer all staff inquiries." According to WSJ, the meeting comes on the heels of an earlier meeting with senior examiners during which Dimon was told that "regulators don't trust [the firm's] management" and believe JPM simply "isn't getting the message." Scrutiny seems to be coming to a head (I, II) lately just as Dimon is set to face shareholders this month. [View news story]
Jamie Dimon is one of the most experienced bankers in the world today, and I would argue he has learnt some hard lessons during the past 12 months on managing the "system" as well as the bank.
I hope he survives this onslaught, and JPM goes on to become the name everyone thinks of as a model, modern, global bank.
Advanced Micro Devices Does Something Incredibly Right [View article]
This is especially so since Intel's stock price has been in "wait state" mode for some 12 years, apart from brief spurts due to overenthusiastic investors piling on their technology advances.....
Krzanich Not The Big Intel Announcement [View article]
a) it is 1/20th the price, along with none of the baggage of PC-related foundries;
b) it should, in my opinion, get the best chip designer for the future of Apple's stock price, the Apple TV. AMD is very, very capable of designing chips for the burgeoning smart TV industry, and will provide Apple a "fresh" design look vs refreshes of either Samsung's or recently, Intel's smart TV platforms;
c) as Apple has to find an alternative platform for Apple's chip fabs, it might find it convenient to treat, long term, AMD as a "half way house" from Apple's in house chip design capabilities to handing over to AMD the "core" design requirements, before giving the final design to say, Glo Flo (in lieu of or in addition to TSM);
d) just as AMD is hungry to succeed or die quickly, Apple can inject a level of energy into AMD that it finally has a "saviour" to throttle its expensive "dreams" forward instead of having to constantly play second fiddle to Intel; and who knows,
e) AMD in Apple's hands may be a better outcome for Apple than AMD ending up in Microsoft's lap!
Advanced Micro Devices Does Something Incredibly Right [View article]
Why Microsoft Stock Is Going Up Despite Windows 8 Going Down [View article]