Seeking Alpha

alpine

alpine
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View alpine's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 'A New Order Of Things' - Micron's Challenge And Opportunity (Part 1) [View article]
    William,

    Perhaps we should coin a new term "client/partners em/imbedded expense"....among others....it's time the accounting community moved beyond their GAAP and non-GAAP classifications, and enabled new relationships between the "builders/creaters" and the "users" when so much is at stake just be working together.....methinks, the Japanese still have a thing or two to teach the rest of the world, as MU and recently, AMAT have discovered.

    I wait for your "thunder" with "great expectations", as it is always a joy to read, filled with both science and "art of writing/expression".
    Sep 16 09:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'A New Order Of Things' - Micron's Challenge And Opportunity (Part 1) [View article]
    Thought-provoking article, and captures in one place key "thrust" points made by MU management at recent presentations:
    - making raw memory is not enough to "win"
    - making memory products that "plug and play" to each customer requirement is what the new game is about;
    - MU is already making significant investments internally to up its "partnership" relationships with key OEMs and end-customers so they can provide tailored memory solutions that meet their requirements. In this regard, I took it as more "R&D" focused spending vs plain vanilla "SG&A" spending to "go to market" with these customers;
    - Elpida it seems is their "beachhead" organisation to develop these complex, partnership relationships, as they have been doing this a long time; and
    - paradoxically, it also seemed that the end-customers also demand that MU does this work, so it seemed a "winwin" way to go forward.

    The presentations led me to believe that key platforms Micron has introduced of late are all tightly coupled to specific industry or even individual customer requirments, i.e. MU "gets" "applied" R&D, and this will form the winning way forward, just as it has been for SNDK for some time.

    As for Q4, I expect recent dramatic JPY decline to help FY 2015 significantly.
    Sep 16 05:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba IPO: Assessment Of Risks, Rewards [View article]
    To get to that kind of valuation, I feel Yahoo has to "tax invert", i.e. move its Corporate (tax) headquarters to HK or Singapore. This way, it can engage in a de facto share swap, i.e. BABA effectively buys out YHOO and YHOO Japan shares in its entirety, for a tax free sum that simply equates to the number of BABA shares held by them X BABA share price.

    Alternatively, it may be far more economical for BABA to simply acquire YHOO in an M&A transaction that would probably place the value of each YHOO share at say, $50 per share. I am YHOO shareholders, in the main, would accept this idea.

    But I keep thinking, since the math is so simple, "why didn't BABA do this much earlier?" as it would have been a lot cheaper at $35 or $40 than $50!
    Sep 16 04:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Earns Green Light To Double [View article]
    Another sign of Intel's ascent will be Oracle's earnings slated for later this week, and I can't wait to hear how well they are doing with their Intel based processor systems vs their own Sun Sparc ones.
    Sep 14 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple [View article]
    Great article on Apple's prospects in Asia, which is not in most investors' mind, except China of course. But again and again, what I see is how Samsung and of late, the Chinese brands have such superior distribution, as they market their phones and tablets at every 'hole in the wall' shop in big cities to the smallest of villages, in every country in Asia, esp the less well off.

    Apple's truly aspirational, but their distribution is their most apparent weakness.
    Sep 14 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    Got your article, even if it was a few days late. Am 'following' you now, so should be able to get to your next article quick.

    Thanks and best of luck with Intel, but I'm, short term, seriously with MU, simply because Apple needs it, HP, Dell, EMC, VMW, Cisco, Lenovo, the list of people who "need" MU short term and long term gets longer and longer. And by the look of "things", even the likes of GE, Philips, Siemens, Electrolux will all need MU.
    Sep 14 12:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba IPO: Assessment Of Risks, Rewards [View article]
    Any views on when your yahoo options will start fruiting.....for you to harvest.
    It seems to me, for example, that it will be quite a long time before BABA hits $100, simply because that will only prove the IPO was hardly a "public offering"!
    Sep 13 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle Earnings Preview: Fairly Valued, Is Oracle Now Secular Mid-Single-Digit Grower? [View article]
    I'm beginning to think the Oracle stock price may be more determined by the flood of "big" money moving to the sexiest, latest beehive in town, i.e. BABA, and consequently, we may even see a crash of all other stocks as a result. If it happens, it should be no surprise to anybody, as it has been predicted by so many experts. When that happens, we may well see Oracle at low 30s.
    Sep 13 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    Bruce,

    Thanks for your comments, not sure if "memory technology being worked on" comment is worrisome enough to drop out of MU, esp. since its valuation seems low, Q4 earnings are sill due soon, and most surprisingly, all MU managers were quite upbeat about the Company's presentations during all their presentations, given during their quiet period, on their near and long term prospects.

    I hope you are as intrigued as I am that there is almost no noise on the "converts" front, so all in all, it feels to me, after Russ' comments, we should continue our path walking on eggshells, but stay a narrow path on course. Have you noticed, btw, even SNDK was bullish during their presentations, so who's got it wrong?

    Finally, I wonder if you could pen your crisp observations about Intel's overall business prospects, since you were there, while most of us are still buried deep in the trenches.....esp with so much "dirt Russ piled on us of late ;-)

    Thanks!
    Sep 13 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba IPO: Assessment Of Risks, Rewards [View article]
    Ah, such simple math.....but to me, somehow, on careful reflection, indicates relatively modest leverage, but do you have a complex math formula you used to arrive at this?

    For example, if, as almost every man/woman on the street now expects, if BABA shoots up to 100, it would only mean 9 for YHOO. Yet, I "feel", if the former does "shoot", I expect YHOO to "overshoot", to say, 58.
    Sep 13 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle Earnings Preview: Fairly Valued, Is Oracle Now Secular Mid-Single-Digit Grower? [View article]
    Some areas of concern with respect to Oracle's upcoming earnings:
    a) impact of EUR and other currencies' decline vs USD, as most of their expenses are incurred in USD or de facto USD-pegged currencies;
    b) impact of economic problems in Europe, and potential cash collection issues in Russia, etc;
    c) continuing depressing effect of their moving more and more of their revenue base to a de facto annuity stream. This effect served to depress their last Q4 earnings, and surprise Wall Street;
    d) a slew of companies, esp Microsoft, Workday, HP, even lowly Lenovo could give them problems in both their software as well as hardware businesses.

    Agree with your conclusion, best to stay away till they get down to low 30s.
    Sep 12 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba IPO: Assessment Of Risks, Rewards [View article]
    Best of all, when it does not have them, it makes them up as they go along.
    Sep 12 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba IPO: Assessment Of Risks, Rewards [View article]
    Great, balanced article on BABA. For now, retail investors can only "play" YHOO as proxy for investing in BABA short term, but long term, I feel that YHOO is a great, relatively inexpensive, and even risk free way to get in on BABA.

    BABA to me represents the final frontier "conquest" for everything China manufacturing represents. In 10 years so, I expect BABA to be the 1 stop, unrivalled marketing, logistics, distribution and payment channel for all manner of Chinese manufactured or processed goods, worldwide. Yes, BABA will provide the platform across all developed, emerging and even frontier countries for Chinese manufactured goods as well as processed goods, such as Chinese tea, food products, etc.

    In addition, it is quite possible that everywhere China Inc. has established government to government "trade" deals, Chinese Yuan currency swaps, etc to ease trading with Chinese companies, BABA will quickly establish itself as a trusted, secure trading platform much as AMZN has served so effectively in the US, Europe and selected other markets.

    The big difference between AMZN and BABA's scalability, growth prospects and even profitability is simply that most of manufactured goods from industrial, consumer, electronics, toys, clothing, shoes, etc are sourced from China, and in this regard, BABA is far better placed to be the ultimate trusted, secure on-line trading platform vs. AMZN. While BABA may not have fulfilment centres such as AMZN has, I expect BABA to establish key partnerships with national postal companies (such as the recent contract with Singpost in Singapore) to use them as its fulfilment center as well as the deliverer of its goods.

    All in all, one must ask oneself, what if BABA's IPO is a 'shadow play', i.e. its initial sale is a highly restricted one with most of the shares going to the ultra rich, powerful and well connected, and consequently, when it goes public, the shares take off within a short period, and all manner of institutions and investment mangers are forced to buy, buy, buy because it is a "must have" stock in their holdings, esp when they must reveal their holdings at the end of the year.

    Therefore, it seems compelling the only way for the small guy to "play" this "theme" is to buy YHOO. And strangely enough, when you look at the "busy"ness of Yahoo website, its fundamental business seems to be on an upswing too, and they have fixed all their previous problems at key platforms such as mail, finance, flickr.
    Sep 12 12:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva's Q2 Earnings Review [View article]
    Great to read an article about an 'emerging' company in an industry that has so many moving parts. Are you able to identify any competitors that one could benchmark this company's valuation to?
    Sep 12 05:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maduro blasts default fears [View news story]
    I wonder if there is any actual "Free Cash Flow" analysis of Venezuela's finances, as it is easy for the President to declare "we can", but while he is printing Pesos, he can't print USDs (or EURs) to get himself out of the quagmire the entire country is in.

    On top of all this, I imagine more and more people are actually waiting in longer and longer queues for the simplest things in life, while, I imagine, "friends in high places" make out very well in this environment.

    All in all, it seems so close to George Orwell's Animal Farm ;-(
    Sep 11 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
927 Comments
876 Likes