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alpine

alpine
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  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    If the intention (in the case of widely followed, analysed, speculated, hedged, "squeezed", etc Micron) is to outsmart the smart guys (and loads of supersmart computers working 24X7 at the likes of GS, MS, BAC, C and even DB doing all manner of hedging that the "lower" human being cannot "feel, see, etc"), I suspect it may be too late, per below:

    http://bit.ly/153U7kU
    Apr 27, 2015. 04:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Super Micro Computer: Buy The Pullback [View article]
    If there is a market for servers at any price, at any size, I do expect Lenovo to "learn" quickly how to make it, and sell it at a highly competitive price so it can continue to grow aggressively in this "new" space. This is especially so since I expect Lenovo to have inherited the best engineering resources IBM had in this area, even if IBM figured it was a "commodity" business.....just because Intel was making the server chips ;-)
    Apr 26, 2015. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    Wow, I'm floored reading your article, as your "radar system" is so full of "dots" that you are locked in on, it is amazing you track them and can somehow "connect" them all.

    I'm always tempted by the thought that very smart computers owned by the likes of GS, MS, BAC, C, etc "know" all the known knowns and can even "manage" most of the known unknowns to squeeze the large returns available from the market's inherent inefficiencies, leaving the small investor to pick up the crumbs. But after reading your article, I am tempted to think "what if the Nasdaq breach actually leads to a pent up "melt up" next week, even a highly co-related worldwide one?
    Apr 26, 2015. 10:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Super Micro Computer: Buy The Pullback [View article]
    Well, I dare say, perhaps even bet, "you ain't seen nothing yet", as Lenovo's "Defend and Attack" simple business strategy says, never yield market share that you've got, but absolutely attack (with whatever it takes) to gain market share you haven't got.

    I wish I could post you some laments from the likes of Acer, etc....but I can't, but I do "feel", SMCI will feel the "pain" shortly, if it doesn't already, as one un-underestimable difference" Lenovo is it has is the total and complete support of China Inc.

    Paradoxically, if there was one sure 10 year, 10 bagger winner someone would ask me to bet on, it would certainly be Lenovo! To me, it represents the best of China Inc.
    Apr 25, 2015. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Keeps Its Head In The Cloud [View article]
    Ever since Satya Nadella took over, there is a palpable change in what Microsoft is, and this is going to have significant impacts on how the stock is valued on Wall Street:
    a) just as Apple has succeeded brilliantly, Microsoft is now starting to excel at building and selling "go to" hardware, from tablets, (value) phones and of course, Xbox. They "get" China manufacturing, logistics, distribution and channel management;
    b) they have successfully "built out" their core SQL Server, Windows Server and Systems Center platforms to all manner of "attached software" so that corporate customers can look to just Microsoft products, services and even consulting to meet all their data management needs, both big data, BI as well as analytics and reporting. In this regard, I see them being able to meet Oracle, IBM, and even the Open Stack competition "in their face", if need be, and better still, they can even "mix and match" with their products and services, if for example, the corporate clients need Microsoft only for Office;
    c) they can now be the most cost and efficiency service provider in the cloud, vs the likes AWS, Google, FB, IBM as they know how to "procure, deploy, efficiency manage" on the cheap and efficient, which gives them significant scale in terms of being able to gain market share against Amazon, Google and IBM;
    d) even if they are the 3rd player in CRM, they are either holding their own or even gaining market share, as they can offer Dynamics CRM together with Office, Skype and "Social Listening" so corporate clients only need a single MS platform for all their CRM needs, in either private or public cloud versions;
    e) Did anyone notice that everything has gone strangely silent on the China "anti-trust" case? (Especially since China wasted no time in "punishing" the likes of Google, IBM, HP, Cisco and of course, that "bad, bad boy" Qualcomm) I suspect that Microsoft has come through relatively unscathed, and I do suspect, in the quarters to come, Microsoft will see huge numbers of Windows XP "pirates" come out of their holes in China, signing up for official Windows (and Office) licences, either for "free" (but "network tethered" to Redmond, Washington forever or Office 360 in the Cloud. These customers, esp the corporate ones, hitherto using pirated software, including Office, will no longer be able to stay "pr/i(v)ate" as Micorost no longer supports them, and will surely find, finally, after so many years, a "fair trade" deal with China Inc. Just imagine the possibilities, and what a relief it must be to Redmond, WA;
    f) Vs the likes of Oracle, IBM and even Red Hat, Microsoft "gets" all the disruptive technologies, including In-memory DB, SDN, as their latest offerings are already designed to take advantage of both of these disrupters, and all in a seamless offering.....guess who is the largest corporate client of Arista Networks, and likely using chunks of Micron/Intel designed, advanced SSD's ;
    g) has anyone had a look at Microsoft's stock options, yes, they are only offered to M&A situations, and the rest of the employee pool is granted restricted stock awards whose cost to the Company has declined substantially in recent years, against any measure, such as % of revenues, % of Operating Income or even # of shares outstanding;
    h) the IT industry has finally "worked" in Microsoft's favour, in terms of antitrust issues, as there are now the likes of Apple, Oracle, IBM, Google, Amazon, even Alibaba offering everything from hardware, software and lots and lots of "closed in" software that it will no longer be practically possible to drag Microsoft to court, either in Europe, China, and even the USA. For the first time, Microsoft has a clear "road ahead" to exploit the markets worldwide on its own terms, and not worry about the dreaded, highly ambitious, EU anti-competition Commissioner, Ms. Margrethe Vestager swooping down with arbitrary fines;
    i) isn't it delightful that Microsoft no longer attracts all those negative news about its software being hacked, etc esp since its software is now being used in so many places, by so many people, and in all manner of uses. In fact, I do believe now has credible security software offerings all of its own; and finally,
    j) did anyone see the spike in short interest in Microsoft shares recently, it could partially explain the huge 10%+ jump in share price on Friday. As next week's exciting presentations, analysis, explanations unfold, expect the shorters to run for cover......and what joy it is to see a stock given up for "dead" money, come back "roaring, biting and racing".
    Apr 25, 2015. 06:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    Just for the sake of argument, "what if Micron "teaches" Inotera/Nanya everything, and "unseen by the naked eye", Inotera/Nanya "teach" SummitView?"

    What China wants, China always gets....2017 may be ambitious but 2020, I'm quite certain.
    Apr 24, 2015. 08:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cartels, Sci-Tech And Breaking Bad: Oil Markets' New Normal? [View article]
    Can't help commenting "ahead of the 'neck sticking out'" is a beautiful mind. At this juncture, the market seems to be behaving to your thesis, and congratulations again. But do you have a view on where it could be headed from here? Any upward target over say, the next 3 summer months, esp for Brent?
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Super Micro Computer: Buy The Pullback [View article]
    SMCI had a great past, and likely has a good future, but its future would have been truly exceptional if....Lenovo had not bought into IBM's X86 server business.

    Just as Lenovo "killed" Acer, Toshiba, Fujitsu Sony Vaio and even, these days, Asus (the go to brand previously), I "fear" they've likely locked in on SMCI to gain X86 market share worldwide. Most of SMCI customers, big and small, especially the better paying ones, are likely to buy from Lenovo than SMCI, for similar pricing terms, it pays to watch & brief.
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    Having read the article again (more carefully), I feel that DRAM, and indeed, also NAND prospects for Micron vs Samsung will also be determined by the latter's Asian roots and its inherently different culture, both at the corporate level as well as the "DNA" aspects of every Samsung employee, across the world, as well as its huge army of distributors, retailers and agents.

    Some of the concerns expressed about having available employees to "man" new manufacturing operations, imo, are likely non-issues because Samsung employees will go to any new job assigned by the Company, learn and train on the job harder and faster than most, and best of all, have what it takes to make Samsung "win everytime". The new factory being located in SKorea vs US, China or Vietnam effectively makes this risk-free of any operational issues.

    Samsung being a behemoth that straddles so many products within itself, and also being a likely core supplier to so many SKorean industries such as automobiles, medical equipment, telecom gear, IT, shipbuilding, etc etc guarantees it great financial, marketing and operational flexibility to "embed" its DRAM and NAND production anywhere in this huge eco-system. And of late, it has added Apple to this web, perhaps lasting for another 10 years, as old issues around IP theft, etc are ironed out outside the purview of Justice Judy Koh & co......she probably quietly counseled it in the first place.

    Where it likely falls behind is being able to "embed" itself with a large variety of international ODMs and OEMs, such as the Chinese mobile manufacturers as well as all manner of DRAM and NAND users worldwide in everything from IoT, automobiles, medical, big data, SSDs....the list just goes on. The more MU is able to "go to market" faster, better, more efficiently and help these companies get their products to their customers, MU's future prosperity is assured, if not guaranteed, esp since INTC and MU seem to be talking and walking the same talk.

    In short, 2 different companies, very different cultures, but thankfully, with quite distinct futures, at least as to how they will survive and prosper.
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:59 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron DRAM Share: A Rumor Of War? [View article]
    Another great article, although I was disappointed for lack of 'quotes of olde'...

    It seems, at least for the next couple of years, Apple and Samsung have decided to join themselves at the hip, perhaps they can run faster and nimbler than all those China wannabes in close chase.

    But MU (instead of SNDK) could be very well positioned, not only for DRAM, but also NAND, so in a sense, it could be a "war" between Apple/Samsung vs INTC-MSFT-GOOG with a whole host of Chinese/Taiwanese players supporting the latters' Windows 10 or the Android platforms. MU would fit snugly in the middle, for DRAM and NAND supply, and having a larger and larger piece of the pie when it comes to everything that is not mobile, i.e. PCs, servers and clouds of every description!
    Apr 22, 2015. 05:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Stock And The Case For Exceptional Patience [View article]
    It is of course, a sad conclusion to one of USA's biggest brandnames from some 100 years ago, but while IBM, I believe, successfully continues to "milk" its huge installed base, along with some "co-culprits" such as SAP, CA, NTAP, BMC, and a host of "feeders" that are experts in "managing the mainframe environment" milking process, the disruptive, growth "story" has moved on, and perhaps has moved on permanently.

    In this regard, I compare how far 2 other oldies have come, i.e. ORCL for sure, but to my great surprise, also CSCO and I marvel at their disruptive strengths, as it is impressive how, every corner they face an unknown "enemy", they rearm, reinforce, slim themselves and get going. Somehow, it seems that MSFT, INTC, ORCL, CSCO, RHT, VMW along with the likes of MU have taken over the "core", and the new "feeders" off their eco-systems are the likes of ACN, EPAM, AMZN, GOOGL, GLOB, SPLK, DATA and the like.
    Apr 22, 2015. 04:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avid Technology Is Still Significantly Undervalued [View article]
    Having followed AVID over many years, I always wondered:
    a) if it was the true "gold standard" in its industry, why did they have all these accounting problems?
    b) following from (a) above, when the stock was at its lows, why didn't the likes of Oracle swoop in on them, as it would have extended Oracle's reach into the Media & Entertainment industry?
    c) haven't the likes of ADSK, and even others like Dassault Systemes "stolen its thunder" esp since, when it comes to animated content (which isn't these days?), just these 2 companies, along with the likes of Apple and Adobe when it comes to 'allin1' media generation, curation and distribution?

    So many questions, so few answers....at least for now....
    Apr 21, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cartels, Sci-Tech And Breaking Bad: Oil Markets' New Normal? [View article]
    As it happens, the only "oil tech" company I was familiar with from some 20+ years ago was called Aspen Technology, AZPN, and I am simply amazed that they seem to have far outperformed the likes of HAL and SLB. Sadly, I never invested in any of them...

    http://yhoo.it/1DuqWs0

    All the same, I rejoice at oil's modest bounce back, as it bears me precious "gifts" in other ways, I congratulate you on your early prediction of a bounce from depressed levels some 2+ months ago. I never "believed", still don't, but alas, thank you!
    Apr 20, 2015. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cartels, Sci-Tech And Breaking Bad: Oil Markets' New Normal? [View article]
    Always read your reports with great interest, as it has interesting bits of information on this difficult-to-rig industry. Still, we must, and your articles such as this one provides lots of food for thought. It left me wondering:
    a) are there small companies with certain technological niches that one could invest in, in order to enjoy the more immediate benefits of the "advances in science and technology" in this area;
    b) does it hold true that there is massive amount of oil below the area around Gatwick Airport, and if so, how large is its potential compared to the Permian Basin.
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Stock And The Case For Exceptional Patience [View article]
    To "muddy" the clear, blue skies this article paints for IBM's prospects, I feel several credible heirs have now usurped that singular perch IBM used to have:
    a) the Open Stack "eco-system" comprising companies like RHT, CSCO, VMW;
    b) Oracle has successfully become the 'go to' company if one wants an "all in 1" IT products and service provider, whose offerings surely match or even exceed the best of what IBM has to offer. As evidence, I suggest one has to look deeply at Oracle's enterprise applications, hugely deep vertical applications in core industries such as banking, govt, healthcare, retail, FMCG, Oil&Gas and all manner of applications that analyse, store and manage big and small, structured and unstrucured data;
    c) Microsoft along with Intel is able to provide hardware and software offerings, along with a huge army of systems integrators can provide most of what IBM can offer, but at far more competitive prices;
    d) the likes of Accenture and so many other SIs are all simply having IBM's best offerings for lunch, leaving little but the toast for IBM to munch on.

    The list of the above is very long indeed, and this article does not convince me to think that IBM has an edge.
    Apr 20, 2015. 01:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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