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alpine

alpine
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  • The Real Source Of A Santa Claus Rally [View article]
    With only 2 real trading days left in the year, and most mutual and hedge fund managers likely closed out for the year, it would seem the US markets will take a much needed breather, esp with so many headwinds, e.g. FX, oil price declines, GILD vs ESRX/ABBV disruption uncertainty.
    Dec 26, 2014. 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    Earnings expectations have to come down for most players, incl. Intel during Q1 conference calls, simply because of the enormous USD FX headwind. Most recent conference calls from the likes of Oracle and Red Hat confirmed this.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    Alas, the last time I looked Intel has gone 3D, including 3D NAND, with nary a word from AMD on it, while struggling to 'break even' with planar?
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Quick And Dirty Problem For IShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF [View article]
    Season's greetings to the author Mr. Springer, and hope his health travails of some months are behind him. I miss his contributions on SA, and wonder if he will post articles on SA on frontier markets again, including Sri Lanka.

    I am currently in Chennai, South India and wondered if he could recommend a good stockbroker in Sri Lanka that I could go visit, with the intention of setting up an investment account to buy and hold both equities and local currency bonds.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Oracle [View article]
    Since Oralce has successfully implemented a revenue model that is heavily reliant on an annuity stream, and its business in Europe and Asia incl. Japan are relatively big vs competitors, one needs to "flex" the EPS for the impact FX rates have on revenues and profitability.

    I suspect the -ve impact is substantial, and fear that Oracle is limited in its ability to implement price increases in the short term to ameliorate this problem.

    For the long term, I do agree that Oracle has no longer any peers in providing mission critical applications to the business world.
    Dec 26, 2014. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Bets Big On Custom Chips For Cloud Businesses [View article]
    Perhaps, if it hasn't already done so, Intel should customise/optimse its chips for emerging new software environments for Oracle Exalogic and Red Hat Open Stack Linux servers.

    This will be a sure way to ensure ARM's likely foray into servers faces limited success.
    Dec 25, 2014. 05:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Dominant And Undervalued [View article]
    Great article. I do suspect, Intel is also well ahead vs the competition in tax and treasury management, which will show up in FCF per share during 2015 and beyond.
    Dec 25, 2014. 05:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead, Abbvie, Express Scripts, And Biotech Industry Turmoil Seen By Market-Makers [View article]
    One of the more beautifully written articles on SA, that "draws" one to read on, even if the stats part are too much of a CFA bent for my poor, ageing brain.

    I keep thinking in the real world, within the broad "remora" world, which with a fine "net" must surely bring up not only lawyers, but:
    - so many maligned small investors as well as fund managers of every description, whose 2014 performance reports were "ready to go", champagne bottles opened, etc in time for X'mas as they almost all had, without exception, most of their bets on GILD rather than the likes of either ABBV or ESRX;
    - the poor, long suffering HCV patients, at least in the US, who had hopes that Harvoni will "cure" them forever, as it is the widely accepted/generally accepted treatment for their condition.

    In short, I wonder how the real world is going to sort out this quagmire, both legal, medical, as one typically pays expensive private insurance to get the best care on the market, available at any point in time, and there seems to be a general belief that ABBV's path is inferior to GILD's, in more ways than one.

    As the writer points out, this development has significant implications, in the US for sure initially, but also all over the world, as "ultimate treatment payers" are increasingly looking to reduce cost of medical care while the populist movement (politicians, legislators, judiciary, etc) want only the best for the people.

    In short, are part of the remora community going to succeed in stopping ESRX from an all out win, leaving GILD with another, more just deal?
    Dec 25, 2014. 02:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More About The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    My apologies, I stand corrected -:(
    Dec 24, 2014. 05:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Why One Of Seeking Alpha's Biggest Bulls Sold His Shares [View article]
    To be fair, the author's SA profile does indicate that he/she has been an ardent Intel fan, gleaning from the headlines of his/her many INTC articles, esp when its stock price was stuck for so many years at high 20 to low 30 something.

    Now that he/she has disposed of INTC, it would be so useful if he/she wrote a lengthy article about 2015 stockpicks, esp if they are in his/her view, 20%+ returners....
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Why One Of Seeking Alpha's Biggest Bulls Sold His Shares [View article]
    "Keep in mind I'm a value guy with a very high (20%) annualized return expectation, and a low tolerance for situations where the market agrees with me (because then I begin to wonder what my edge is, and where my outperformance will come from)."

    The article is well balanced, points well argued, but for most of us, old and new, INTC fans, leaves us thinking how come someone bailing out just when:
    - Intel is truly racing ahead of the pack, and will deliver soon:
    - long term competitors like AMD, IBM, QCOM are dropping further and further behind;
    - 2015 is going to be, likely for the next 50 years, its best year, as management and employees do want to "gift" Mr. Gordon Moore, who is still very much live and kicking, the best 50th Moore's Law anniversary gift ever: stellar products, breathtaking technologies both in design and process, entry into new markets, and hopefully, for us at least, tremendous improvements in long term revenue and profitability trajectory.

    As for the writer's comment repeated above, it would be so useful if he started sharing his/her other investments more freely (as he/she had of Intel, even if I missed them all -:( ) as most of us would salivate at the prospect of min. 20% returns, esp in 2015 (facing already high valuations as well as tremendous macro headwinds).

    On the other hand, one has to respect anyone who calls himself or herself a Terrier, as "fear abounds"....Merry X'mas and great 2015 everyone, including the author!
    Dec 22, 2014. 09:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More About The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    FWIW, when news came out that QCOM was going to help SMIC transition to latest (14nm) technology, I asked myself the same questions, i.e. how could they transition so quickly to such advanced process, and even if, with QCOM's help they could, would the US Govt allow it?

    But this is now a signed agreement, and I can only assume QCOM knows the US laws better than anybody else. In addition, you always have to tell yourself, the likes of LRCX, AMAT, KLAC and ASML just can't wait to sign up more customers to sell their most advanced equipment if the laws permit them to, as their customer base is always at risk of concentration into INTC, TSMC, TXN and of course, Samsung.
    Dec 22, 2014. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: What's Ahead In 2015 For This Biotech Juggernaut [View article]
    When it comes to a difficult-to-treat illness such as HCV, who is the decision maker as to which treatment is prescribed? Surely, in most private patient cases in the US, this is a decision taken strictly between the patient first, medical practitioner second and the patient's insurance company, with only ESRX in a third, for want of a better word, 'adviser' capacity?
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More About The Intel Investor Meeting [View article]
    It is tempting to think the Chinese semi fab companies such as SMIC would just salivate the very prospect of getting their teeth into memory business, as this is the one business that they do not seem to have any hold on, having effectively "cornered" so many fabless companies in so many businesses to their fabs, such as even Qualcomm.

    As with China Inc. backing them, they will have no shortage of cash, facilities, tax advantages, and even engineering talent, as they would love to put their best brains behind such a "future quantum leap" project.
    Dec 22, 2014. 03:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Palm Oil: The Next Best Investment [View article]
    Of course, esp as long as there is need for all the uses the likes of Pepsi, Unilever, P&G, Yum Brands get up to. My point was about the marginal demand, and about the "buzz" that is now taking place at high income homes in China, as they're all in love with that ultimate sexiness that is embedded in extra, extra virgin......to go back to your point, the lower the yield, the more aspirational the product becomes to them, and the more they want it, and they ALL want it now.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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