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alpine

alpine
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  • Veeva's Q2 Earnings Review [View article]
    Great to read an article about an 'emerging' company in an industry that has so many moving parts. Are you able to identify any competitors that one could benchmark this company's valuation to?
    Sep 12 05:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maduro blasts default fears [View news story]
    I wonder if there is any actual "Free Cash Flow" analysis of Venezuela's finances, as it is easy for the President to declare "we can", but while he is printing Pesos, he can't print USDs (or EURs) to get himself out of the quagmire the entire country is in.

    On top of all this, I imagine more and more people are actually waiting in longer and longer queues for the simplest things in life, while, I imagine, "friends in high places" make out very well in this environment.

    All in all, it seems so close to George Orwell's Animal Farm ;-(
    Sep 11 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    Alas, why is Russ MIA just when things are so, so painful for MU fans? The Apple event is over, IDF is well on the way, and as far as the eyes can see and the ears can hear, Intel hasn't breathed a word about getting into the memory business, at least not as a direct competitor to MU or its direct DRAM players.

    Yet, MU continues to "suffer", just when
    - it is adding up all its Q4 numbers, which by all accounts, including their "quiet period" presentations, seemed to indicate "all is quiet on the Boise front";
    - MU has issued a deluge of product announcements which point to their extending their tentacles like a veritable octopus;
    - every Cloud player a la Microsoft, Google, Citrix, VMW, Workday, Arista etc all presented highly optimistic visions for Cloud business growth, which would point to great demand for NAND and DRAM products;
    - PC business demand also seems to remain robust through Q3 and possibly, strengthen during Q4.

    If only Russ could lay out his thoughts, views and outlook for both Intel and MU...
    Sep 10 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo +5.4% behind Ailbaba IPO filing [View news story]
    It seems to me, the better fit is "merging" MSN and Yahoo, as the former under Microsoft is dying a slow, painful death, and yet, Bing is getting better and better by the day, which powers Yahoo's search engine.

    If Microsoft M&Aed Yahoo after BABA IPO, it could give Yahoo lots of both operational as well as financial flexibility in how to 'tax invert' the cash proceeds from the BABA sellout, return cash to shareholders (although initially it will be Microsoft's cash from the M&A action) and optimise the entire Yahoo, MSN, Bing and mobile consumer app platforms for both "portals".
    Sep 9 04:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Holdings: Outlook Looks Solid [View article]
    Potentially, this stock could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the dramatic decline in GBP, as most of its revenues are USD based or pegged, while its expenses are heavily in UK, i.e. GBP based.
    Sep 9 04:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Could Boost Boeing [View article]
    Thanks for sharing Barron's views on BA. I feel BA's best years are ahead, but in addition, the "old" BA can now be equated with, for alpha purposes, with a whole host of companies that criss-cross the world, with many currency, tax regimes and of course, cost structures. These include:

    a) USA: BA, PCP, SPR, even AA;
    b) Europe: Thales (FR), BAE Systems, Safran, Saab, and there are many others;
    c) Japan: Mitsubishi Heavy, GS Yuasa, among many others.

    As BA becomes more and more "smart" with its manufacturing and logistics, and applies advanced technologies in its product and manufacturing design processes, expect it to become a world leader in stock price performance, while giving passengers (hopefully) dream flights to every nook and corner in the world, including lots of emerging and frontier markets.

    Finally, BA is quietly doing quite a bit of "tax inverting" all of its own, so let's also watch and brief. Exciting times ahead, in terms of revenue growth, gross margin, operating profit as well as lower tax rate, and consequently, free cash flow.
    Sep 8 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The French State Is Better At Investing Than You Might Think [View article]
    'Illuminating' article, esp given so many of the companies you indicated are somehow in the high energy production or consuming businesses.

    As other non-government owned companies may have also done well during this period, it would be useful if you took large, truly private French companies and compared the alpha between the two sectors.
    Sep 7 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo +2.6% AH on Alibaba IPO pricing [View news story]
    Surely, there are income tax payable effects of this transaction that affects Yahoo's valuation?

    I suspect the final, tax-adjusted market cap could be lower than $51.64B. If you agree, how would the final market cap work out, and what could be the fair value per share?
    Sep 6 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More On Intel And Memory [View article]
    Has anyone done a recent deep dive on Intel hires YTD, to "sniff" out if they've been hiring people away from NVM manufacturers?

    Of late, I've "felt" that Intel has been open to hiring people from outside in key missing jigsaw (if Russ has thrown a "puzzle" into the works, this sure is one) areas, so it is natural for me to think that there must be so many people, including from the likes of SNDK, MU or even Samsung, Toshiba and/or those Taiwanese "friends" (which Intel has in aplenty) who'd just adore the prospect of being "Inside Intel".
    Sep 5 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oracle Is A Good Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Amazed that your well articulated article did not receive any comments so far. Yet, I feel the same way you do, i.e. the best is yet to come for Orcl.

    Any views on the Q1 just completed, I do worry that they have had many headwinds this quarter, mainly because Europe is a huge market for them, and both the dramatic EUR/GBP decline and the recession/slowdown/per... FUD in practically all their key markets, incl. UK, Germany, Italy, France, among others will depress both Q1 and outstanding quarters' EPS.

    Having listened to Microsoft's presentation at Citi conference earlier this week, I felt they are also under severe pricing pressure from the former's SQL Server platform (and tools) vs Oracle's DB and tools platforms.
    Sep 5 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Confusion Of Ideas - Micron And The DRAM Industry [View article]
    Excellent article, and so relevant to the situation today, when MU's stock price has become a VIX factor of its own.

    But one of my big worries is simply "as major Chinese smartphone and tablet manufacturers (Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi) make ambitious market share gain plans, and all converge on the only "play" they know, i.e reduce prices, how will they "behave" with major component suppliers such as those for DRAM and NAND. It seems to me they'll somehow have the Chinese govt involved, use market intervention forces such as investigations, rulings, etc and have the suppliers somehow lower prices arbitrarily. And paradoxically, since every phone manufacturer is essentially China based, they may be forced to lower prices, and/or be penalised with massive fines, etc on claims of it being a monopoly.

    When it comes to China, I tell myself, all previous learnings don't always help.
    Sep 4 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Acquisition Of Nokia: Deal Gone Wrong? Probably Not [View article]
    For anyone who feels Microsoft has "lost it" or is "heading down a steep hill", I suggest to think again: it is very important to understand, reflect and think through the implications of what they are doing "deep beneath the surface", i.e. in unifying the Windows experience (incl. touch, but only as an option), providing security and integration to other key business applications such as Office, SQL Server, Lync, Dynamics and others, and slowly but surely providing robust options for corporate clients of all sizes and structures to have them run seamlessly across mobile, desktops, servers, and private, public and hybrid clouds.

    No other company, including Apple, Google, Oracle, IBM or HP provides such a robust, across-the-enterprise offering. In this regard, I have "blind faith" that their Nokia acquisition will bear fruit soon, esp since they seem to have honed in their skills at moving fast, restructuring, and generally, be less "religious" about not trying to invent everything at home. If only they could do:
    - everything to kill rampant piracy, across the globe, for all their products; and
    - selective M&A in bringing home key verticals applications for high growth areas such as govt, financial industries, healthcare, manufacturing, services and logistics and distribution,

    they will have built a company that is built to last for the next 50 years, if not 100 years.
    Sep 4 05:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Positioning For A Stronger Dollar [View article]
    One stock I favour is ARM Holdings (ARMH), which has substantially all its revenues USD based, and much of its expenses in GBP, INR and some EUR. It also enjoys a tax inverted PAT, which helps FCF as growth accelerates towards the end of the year.
    Sep 3 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Vs. SanDisk And The 'Big Data' Explosion Effect [View article]
    Sadly, the "wounded tigers" just outside the room are Samsung (for "raw" DRAM and NAND supply) and of course, Lenovo, potentially the biggest "consumer" (after Samsung) of "raw" and for want of a better word, "processed" DRAM and NAND,. i.e. their huge stake in X86 servers, which practically speaking, thanks to a gift from up above, IBM, but deep inside, Intel of course, with high performance servers, with performance that we don't even know about.

    Both MU and SNDK are no longer in complete control of their respective destinies, as more and more, their future is going to be determined by so many moving parts, technical, marketing, eco-system included, of the likes of Apple, HP, IBM, EMC/VMW, Samsung, Microsoft, privatised Dell, Oracle, SAP....my mind tires to name so many, esp at the phone and tablet levels.
    Sep 2 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft given 20 days to respond to Chinese investigation [View news story]
    All Microsoft has to do is part with its source code on Windows, Office, SQL Server amd all their other products, and they'll be friends again.....no more monopoly, the "solution" to this problem is that simple.....at least as far as the Middle Kingdom is concerned.
    Sep 2 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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